Impact of Climate Change on Tourism in Canada

Responsible Travel and Tourism Toronto, November 22nd.

Who is Icarus?

And the Foundation?

MISSION“ to be the catalyst that helps Canada become

a climate friendly tourism destination”

www.theicarusfoundation.com

De-Mystifying the Science

• What’s a GHG?• How much are we

emitting• How much has the

earth Warmed?• What’s the prognosis?• What do we have to do

to stop it getting warmer?

Not all Greenhouse Gases are equal

CO2

CO2e

What’s the Problem?

• Human activity EMITS about 7 billion tonnes into the atmosphere each year

• Earth (oceans, forests, vegetation) can absorb only so much

• The balance accumulates• 49 gigatonnes in 2004

Some Basic Facts

Some Basic Facts

Past Increases

Possible Futures

The First Number to Remember

+ 2°C

What’s The Deal with + 2°C?

ECOSYSTEMS• 95% of all coral reefs will die• Mediterranean, Baltic and

Us wetlands would suffer. • The Amazon rainforest

would suffer irreversible decline;

• China’s boreal forests, Canada’s low arctic tundra and the Russian Coastal tundra would face 70-80% losses.

What’s The Deal with + 2°C?

ECOSYSTEMS• 20-30% of all plant and

animal species risk extinction if global average temperature exceeds 1.5-2.5 degrees centigrade.

• In BC, these plus 22 other mammals and 540 other species are at significant risk of extinction.

What’s The Deal with + 2 °C?

PEOPLEmelting of glaciers could negatively impact some 500 million people in South Asia, 250 million people in China and between 75-250 million affected in Africa

What’s The Deal with + 2 °C?

PEOPLEIt won’t just be the poor who are affected

The 350,000 people affected in the West Midlands will be postponing their vacation plans

What’s The Deal with + 2 °C?

ECONOMICSLeft unchecked could result in a 20% drop in GDP per capita

“Climate change is the greatest and widest-ranging market failure ever seen” Sir Nicolas Stern

The Potential For Phase Change

“The climate system can jump rapidly from stable operating mode to another just as the slowly increasing pressure of a finger eventually flips on a light”US National Academy of Sciences

The Potential For Phase Change

“The climate system can jump rapidly from stable operating mode to another just as the slowly increasing pressure of a finger eventually flips on a light”US National Academy of Sciences

It Pays to Be Humble and Cautious

• Positive feedback loops• Albedo effect• Arctic ice• Shrinking sinks• Permafrost – release of

methane• De-salinisation

Why Are the Generals Worried?

Climate change has the potential to result in multiple chronic conditions, occurring globally within the same time frame.

Economic and environmental conditions in already fragile areas will further erode as food production declines, diseases increase, clean water becomes increasingly scarce, and large populations move in search of resources.

Weakened and failing governments, with an already thin margin for survival, foster the conditions for internal conflicts, extremism and movement toward increased authoritarianism and radical ideologies

- Carbon Disclosure Project 2007- Carbon Disclosure Project 2007

What are Investors /Insurers Thinking?

315 institutional investors representing $41 trillion in investment

“Climate change creates significant costs for the financial industry. In the interests of our clients and our shareholders, we are obligated to take these risks into account when making decisions on insurance underwriting, investments or lending credit” CEO of Allianz Global Investors

38 major insurance companies

How do we prevent exceeding 2°C?

• Act NOW• Even we completely stopped all GHG production, the

earth will warm by 1.4°C• But we’re not stopping; we’re charging full steam

ahead generating more GHG each year• ICPCC & EU – stabilize at 475ppm and reduce

emissions by 50%-80% over 2000 levels, every year• That isn’t business as usual!• That’s an annual drop of 22-32 GIGA Metric Tons a

year

Why is This so Difficult & Scary?• A Planetary Threat

– Affects everybody, everywhere

– Divides north south; rich & poor

– “taking care of my own” leads to more conflict in a very unstable world

– Lack effective governance– Need vision and will.– Break down the artificial

boundaries between sectors, countries…….

Why is This so Difficult & Scary?

• Fear– We think we have to

“give something up” • What we take for granted• What we hold dear• What we’ve worked so

hard to achieve• What we aspire to doing

– As opposed to creating something better

– Weight Loss or “Extreme Makeover”

• Complexity– No silver bullet.– Creativity required– Drastically cut use of

fossil fuels– Positive Visions Needed– Change the nature of the

experience– Work collaboratively

with each other & new partners

Reality – The Writing in the Sky

• Climate Change is the lens through which we can focus on sustainability.

• The problem can be measured

• Requires much more than hot air

Direct climatic impacts» Warmer Summers» Warmer Winters» Precipitation Changes (water supply)» Increased Extreme Events

Indirect environmental change impacts » Biodiversity Loss (terrestrial and marine)» Sea Level Rise» Disease

Impact of mitigation policy on tourist mobility» Travel Costs and Destination Choice

Indirect societal change impacts » Global/Regional Economic Impacts » Increased Security Risks (social/governance disruption)

Impacts on Tourism

The Second Thing to Remember

RESILIENCE

Indirect Effects

Is Tourism the new Titanic?

• Other influencers on tourism demand include– Energy Costs– Currency Fluctuations– GDP– Disposable Income– Aging Populations– Security– Disease– Consumer/voter response– Government response to all the above

Climate Change Just One Factor

The perfect storm?

EnergyCrude oil exceeded $100 a barrel yesterday!

Energy

World Oil resources are judged to be sufficient to meet projected growth in demand on the assumption that the necessary investment is forthcoming…..IAE, World Energy Outlook 200t

Water

“We are moving into what I think is an unprecedented period of water stress that we have no historical analogue to understand.” Sandra Postrel, Director, Global Water Policy Institute

GDP

• Real GDP per Capita (US)

• Aviation growth 1-5-2.0 times GDP growth

• Effects of lack of mitigation could cost as much as 20% of GDP (Stern)

• Adaptation costs• Disposable Income

Disposable Income

• Aging population• Credit Crunch• US consumer debt totals

$2.46 trillion• UK household debt > 145%

of household income• The personal savings rate

has turned negative for the last four months. Not happened since great depression of the 1930s

Security

• Climate change has the potential to result in multiple chronic conditions…with economic and environmental conditions eroding as food production declines, diseases increase, clean water becomes scarce and large populations move and governments weaken…fostering the conditions for internal conflicts, extremism, increased authoritarianism and radical ideologies”

• Food & water shortages• Large scale movement

of people• Increased terrorism• Increased anti-terrorism

measures• Impact on tourism

demand

04/12/23 38Icarus Foundation ©

38% said the environment is a consideration when traveling

38% stayed at an environmentally friendly hotel

34% willing to pay more for such a hotel

24% state that air travel should be avoided

“Travelers are willing to pay more to go green”Trip Advisor

Changing Consumer Values

Government Responses

• Taxes – UK Airport Duty• Carbon Taxes• Cap and Trade• European Trading Scheme• Incentives to encourage mitigation

Response to Climate Change & Tourism in Canada

• Icarus Survey• Now recognized as an

issue• Limited action – obvious

exceptions • Growing use of offsetting• Individual companies• Arctic communities most

concerned

Sub-Sectors CO2 (Mt)

Air transport * 522 40%

Car transport 418 32%

Other transport 39 3%

Accommodation 274 21%

Activities 52 4%

TOTAL 1,307Total World (IPCC 2007)

26,400

Tourism Contribution 4.95%

Transportationof Tourists = 75%of Sector Emissionsminimum

* - does not include non-CO2 emissions and impact on climate

Our Share of the Problem

What Should Canada Do?

1. Measure our Footprint– Accurate– Comprehensive

• Construction• Operations

– Assess true cost of tourism (all gases)

– Current data

e

What Should Canada Do?

2. Develop Awareness and Understanding– Education and information– Symposia and Workshops– Practical Guidance

• TIAC: Sustainability Tool Kit• Case Studies

– Market research

What Should Canada Do?

3. Commit to Carbon Reduction and Mitigation– 50-80% of 2000 levels– Transport Challenge– Internalise environmental costs

• Green house gases• Water• Landscape

– Establish Climate Change Action groups in each province– Top down and bottom up approaches needed

What Should Canada Do?

4. Reframe Growth– Can we, should we aim for our ambitious growth

targets– Is this a wise strategy?– Focus on net value to suppliers, host community

and visitors– Invest in stewardship to be able to increases

prices– Canada: Limited Edition

What Should Canada Do?

5. Help The Industry Adapt– Determine vulnerable sectors and communities– Develop adaptation priorities– Think RESILIENCE

What Should Canada Do?

6. Encourage Responsible Procurement– Determine vulnerable sectors and communities– Develop adaptation priorities

Get Creative and Positive

– Changing demand– Higher prices, higher yields– Longer trips– More domestic tourism– Possibly access limitation– Some substitution– Re-define tourism

Mahatma Gandhi

“A technological society has two choices: first it can wait until catastrophic failures expose any system deficiencies, distortions and self deceptions. Secondly, a culture can provide social checks and balances to correct for systemic distortion prior to catastrophic failures.”

Which do you want to be part of?

Thank You

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