If Scotland stays:What next for Scottish

nationalism?

Dr Nicola McEwenUniversity of Edinburgh

Associate Director, Scottish Centre on Constitutional Change

What do we mean by Scottish nationalism?

What would a NO vote mean for the SNP?

What would a NO vote mean for the prospects for independence?

Unpacking the Question

From national distinctiveness to nationalist mobilisation

Distinctive territorial community/identity mobilised to demand change

Political party/strong civil society capable of channelling demands

A sense of grievance, or ‘frustration’ with status quo – a catalyst for change

“to accept the existence of multiple identities, mutually compatible or not, within a territorial state says nothing about their metamorphosis from social distinctiveness to political expression”. Such a trans-formation requires the “injection of catalysts”

Rokkan and UrwinEconomy Territory, Identity,

1983

Nationalist Movement1979 – (pre-)1997

Divergence between Scottish and ‘English’ voting patterns ‘Democratic deficit’ > political grievance. Strengthening of Scottish national identity and weakening of

Britishness Broad-based movement united around support for Scottish

Parliament Fusion of identity, nationalism and party/ideological politics

To be anti-Conservative = pro ‘home rule’ = Scottish identity = pro social democracy

Civil Society & the “Claim of Right for Scotland”

“We, gathered as the Scottish Constitutional Convention, do hereby acknowledge the sovereign right of the Scottish people to

determine the form of Government

best suited to their needs”

The SNP Government’s Gamble:Absence of Grievance - Presence of Opportunity

The only catalyst = SNP electoral success

Parliamentary majority = political opportunity

Electoral success NOT a result of independence demands

parliamentary share of seats at 2007 and

2011 Scottish elections

SNPLabourConsLib Dems

Defining Independence

Legitimacy of Scotland’s ‘right to decide’

Government-backed blueprint for an independent Scotland

‘Embedded independence’ within EU and British Isles Currency union; energy

partnership; common travel area; common research area; ‘National’ lottery; cross-border functional bodies

Emphasis on continuities and change

“Scotland will continue to have a close and special relationship with the other nations of these isles. This will be a new, updated partnership of equals between the people of Scotland and the rest of the UK”

Emergence of the Independence Movement(Source: Bella Caledonia)

Continued assertion of Scottish distinctiveness/interests within the Union With more or less leverage, less influence….?

Continued commitment to IndependenceRetention of referendum strategy, but without immediate

manifesto commitmentFuture referendum as response to external catalyst &

PQ’s “winning conditions”

The Effect of a NO vote on the SNP’s independence goal

Continuing the Devolution journey without nationalist cause

Reclaiming & redefining ‘Devo Max’ as a nationalist goal

Full fiscal autonomy

Employment & competition law; regulation of companies

Broadcasting, inc new public service broadcasting bodies

Social security, with fiscal autonomy – to design new benefit, tax credit & employment support system

Equalities legislation

Energy policy, marine regulation & Crown Estates

Formal participation rights in EU policy-making

Dr Nicola McEwen, University of EdinburghEmail: N.McEwen@ed.ac.uk

@mcewen_nicola

Future of the UK and Scotland Programme website: http://www.futureukandscotland.ac.uk

@UKScotland

Further info