Climate change & development

Research & policy in Ghana

IDRC-RIPS

African Adaptation Research Centres

June 2011

Sean DOOLAN, DFID

S-Doolan@dfid.gov.uk

Climate-development

challenges & opportunities

How communicate, translate, engage, inform, convince?

Challenges

Risks reversing development gains

Weakens future options

Fit for future purpose, not past or current purpose

Going beyond projects & “environment”

Opportunities

New CC focus on development priorities

More integrated development

Longer-term perspective

New opportunities, scaling up

Big picture 1?

Sub-national

National

Sub-regional

Regional

Global

Community

Household

UNFCCC

Negotiations

Sectors

Food &

agriculture

Big picture 2?

HealthWater

Public

Private

Civil society

Attitudes matter

• Find time

• Find contacts

Geoff Barnard (CDKN) The Knowledge Pond

www.researchtoaction.org

www.dfid.gov.uk/r4d/

I’m a researcher, not a

journalist

Communication often an afterthought

At worst a distraction from ‘real work’

Language matters

• Translate

• Go behind perceptions

• Understand interests

• Relationships matter

• Find the right words & image

www.researchtoaction.org

www.dfid.gov.uk/r4d/

Concepts & words matter

The green house effect?

“Green gases”?

… or trotro effect?

Remote deforestation?

… or trees you can touch?

Climate change & uncertainty – past guide?

“CC models are uncertain, so is the science, let’s wait”

• Economic projections are also uncertain

• Oil & fuel prices?

“I can confidently predict that you will not see oil prices

rising above $30 a barrel in your lifetimes”

BP Chief Economist 2001

• Oil prices: $30-120 per barrel? GHC for a litre?

• Times & contexts change

• “Secure sources” are temporary

• They change as politics & markets change

• So do prices

Climate change & uncertainty – past guide?

Source: www.wtrg.com/oil_graphs

BP prediction• Politics & markets change

• So do windows of opportunity

Climate change & uncertainty – past guide?

Gold prices: $25-600/oz?

Source: http://goldnews.bullionvault.com

Gold prices: $260-1560/oz?

Noisy information – clarify for audience

Sub-basin

Wet

Scenario

Dry

Scenario

Black Volta

Oti Basin

SW Ghana

Volta Lake& SE

White & Red

Volta

-10

+3

+17

+51

+8

-30

-29

+2

-16

-30

• Large transboundary effects

• Uncertainty is substantial

• Need risk management

Uncertainty – rainfall & run-offProjected % runoff changes for major sub-basins in 2050

Source: EACC (WB)

Floods

Transport modalities

Corridors

Shifting vulnerabilities

Hotspots

Livelihoods

Health & education

Facilities & services

Logistics

Market access

Private sector

Exports, balance of trade

Competitiveness

Roads maintenance budget

2020

Temperature Change 0C

High

Low

20502040

High increase in north

“2 oC = Dangerous CC”

Implications?

• growth, agriculture

• N/S divide

• health services, energy?

The past is not a guide Ghana dry scenario - oC change from base

Source: EACC (WB)

2030

Climate & development now – tell the story

“The rains are all late and finish early”

• Repeated climate shocks & stresses affect lives & families

• Children underweight in North, longer hunger season

• Migration evident & increasing across Ghana

• Buruli ulcers - water gathering where aquatic insects live

• Impacts on crops, e.g. cocoa livelihoods & exports

Policy-research & influence/1

• Map networks & decision makers

• Map influences & opinion formers

• Communicate & network

• Make research accessible

• Translate, meet or create needs

• Keep information flowing

• Report & keep in touch

Fast-moving & crowded agenda

Weaving Global Networks

Policy-research & influence/2

• Develop & service relationships

• Cultivate & use intermediaries• Advisors, officials, NGOs, media, Parliament, DPs

• Know your audience - who/what/when?• Votes, budgets, funds, profile

• Livelihoods, lives

• Write press releases & briefs - hooks

• Monitor, reflect, evaluate, report

Fast-moving & crowded agenda

Climate change toolkit

Background information

science, impacts, tackling CC, priorities

Role of Parliamentarians

Representation

Constituency, backbench work

Committees

Scrutiny

Legislation

Parliamentarians can’t act alone

International negotiations

International partnerships

Partners on the groundwww.cpaBranchUK.org

Translate, engage, inform, convince

“Human beings …

underestimate the

importance of situation

and context.”

Malcolm Gladwell

The Tipping Point

Theory of change – focus, what/who/when?

www.researchtoaction.org/theory-of-change-useful-resources/

Translate, engage, inform

Legislators make decisions quickly

Inundated with information

Often generalists dealing with specialist work

Meet an expressed need

Explain complexity in easy language

Present credible, non-partisan research

Present complex information – legible & readable in length & simplicity

Respond to alarmingly short deadlines

Briefs are brief – 90 second pitch

Delhi Parliament - PRS Legislative Research

Briefs no longer than six pages

Soundbites for speeches

Include graphs with written explanations

some look at graphs, others read words

Use ‘friends’ as guinea pigs to ensure can be understood by intelligent reader

Cite sources

Have a brief summary (1-2 paras on front page)

It’s a muddy pond

Research not the only missing ingredient in better policy making

Many reasons why research may be dismissed, ignored or misunderstood

Researchers & communicators need to ‘get their feet wet’ to understand these realities

Learn how to be most effective

Understand the demand side

Climate SMART - disablers

• Denial: someone else’s problem, too busy, too

complex, I’m too small to make a difference

• Lack of demand

• Lack of learning from others

• Political inconsistency or apathy

• Competing & inconsistent demands & needs

• Uncertainty

Climate SMART – tackling disablers

• Apply 80 - 20 rule – what will give most value?

• Clarity – what impact = focus

• Messaging – change the narrative, tell stories of

success, learn from failures

• Benchmarking – for improvement, for peer to peer

pressure & review

• Reframe - in terms of the outcome you want, not the

problem you have

• Use trusted outsiders to kick-start, mentor, encourage

• Alliances – network of like-minded organisations,

community of practice & peers

The future starts now

• International political momentum & negotiations

• Widening debate on climate change

• How ensure development objectives?

• How widen & inform constituency?

• How position?

• How ACT?

• Now

• Differently

• Together