Post on 16-Jan-2017
Enabling plural pathways: uncertainty and responses to climate change
Ian Scoones
Climate Change and Uncertainty from Above and Below27-28 January 2016
IIC, New Delhi
Understanding non-equilibrium systems…..
Climate models and uncertainty.…• Increasing complexity - more variables, more computing power• More models (IPCC 5 had 50 plus models, from 20 plus groups) – CMIPs
(coupled model inter-comparison projects) based on linked Atmospheric-Ocean GCMs
• Huge variation compared across model ensembles. But uncertainties exist within as well as between models (shared assumptions, modelling cultures/institutional contexts) – incomplete knowledge throughout
• Downscaling from global change to impacts at geographic/field level (e.g. linking to crop production), major inconsistencies…. And even more uncertainty.
Knowledge and politics• Science (and modelling) has limitations in context of complexity,
uncertainty, indeterminacy….• Knowledge not produced independently of framings, assumptions,
values and politics – shaped by social experiences/cultures (in labs, in field, in assessment panels, in policy settings)
• Multiple knowledges generate different claims of objectivity, legitimacy, authority = debate
• Deliberation among different claims, involving diverse groups, essential – and this is political (always).
unproblematic
knowledge about likelihoods
RISK
UNCERTAINTY
Non-linear, non-equilibrium systems
Human, social factors changing contexts
problematic
Four dimensions of incertitude – opening up debate
risk assessment, prediction
cost benefit analysis optimising decision models
unproblematic
problematic
unproblematic problematic
knowledge about likelihoods
knowledge about possibilities
RISK
UNCERTAINTY
AMBIGUITY
INCERTITUDE
what is benefit or harm? how fair? which alternatives?whose values and societies?
unproblematic
problematic
unproblematic problematic
knowledge about likelihoods
knowledge about possibilities
RISK
UNCERTAINTY
AMBIGUITY
IGNORANCE
surprise
black swans
novel agents, vectors, dynamics
INCERTITUDE
unproblematic
problematic
unproblematic problematic
knowledge about likelihoods
knowledge about possibilities
RISK
UNCERTAINTY
AMBIGUITYpolitical closureabsence of participation,lack of democracy
reductive modelsaggregative analysis
` science-based policy
institutional cultures
insurance protection indicators / metrics
IGNORANCE
Power Closes Down to Risk illuminate specific microdynamics of closure
unproblematic
problematic
unproblematic problematic
knowledge about likelihoods
knowledge about possibilities
RISK
UNCERTAINTY
AMBIGUITY
IGNORANCE
Opening Up Political Space for Debate
definitive prevention
unproblematic
problematic
unproblematic problematic
knowledge about likelihoods
AMBIGUITY
IGNORANCE
RISK
knowledge about possibilities
Methods: explore and experiment with ‘plural condition’ practices
UNCERTAINTY
precautionary appraisal
unproblematic
problematic
unproblematic problematic
knowledge about likelihoods
IGNORANCE
RISK
UNCERTAINTY
knowledge about possibilities
scenarios backcasting
interactive modells
MC mapping Q-method
AMBIGUITYparticipatory deliberation
knowledge about likelihoods
problematic UNCERTAINTY IGNORANCE
transdisciplinarity, social learning
civic research, participatory monitoring,
learning adaptation
unproblematic
unproblematic problematic
AMBIGUITYRISK
knowledge about possibilities
knowledge about likelihoods
problematic UNCERTAINTY IGNORANCE
unproblematic
unproblematic problematic
AMBIGUITYRISK
knowledge about possibilities
Theme
Conventional views Emerging views
Knowledge/power Science as arbiter, single source of authoritative knowledge; conflict, dissent and debate underplayed
Multiple sources; plural and partial perspectives; conflict, dispute and dissent inevitable; negotiated understandings
Risk and uncertainty
Measurable risks and predictable outcomes; assumptions of ‘normal’, ‘standard’ patterns
Uncertainty and ignorance; temporal variability and spatial diversity
Development planning and policy
Blueprint approach; linear policy model Adaptive planning, flexible, responsive, learning; non-linear policy: negotiation, adaptation, discretion key
Livelihoods and resource management
Single use, sectoral view of resources; resources as commodities; production focus
Multiple users, complex and diverse livelihoods
Institutions Static, rule-based, formal, clear boundaries, fixed, exclusivity
Dynamic, overlapping, heterogeneous, socially-defined, emergent from social relations and practice, flexible
Legal frameworks Formal legislation: fixed rules and procedures Evolving law in practice, multiple systems, legal pluralism
Governance Separation of levels: local vs global; rules and formal institutions of governance
Networks of actors, multi-level governance, messy interactions, negotiation of outcomes
From above and below….across• Combining sources of knowledge and understanding -
‘dismantling the divide’ between ‘expert’ and other knowledges
• Rethinking modelling practices and cultures – combined approaches for negotiating uncertainty
• Transdisciplinarity, participation, deliberation, co-production, social learning for sustainability
• New institutions, new professionals – dealing with mess, brokers, tracking, mediators
• Keep it complex, embracing uncertainty - plural and conditional advice for multiple pathways