Post on 19-Mar-2016
description
Hurricane Evacuation Decision Support Systems and Related Research & Development Recommendations
Presented by
Richard WagonerNational Center for Atmospheric Research
National Hurricane ConferenceWashington, DC9 April, 2001
Hurricane Evacuation Decision Support Systems and Related Research & Development Recommendations
Winter Road Maintenance Decision Support System (MDSS) Prototype Development
Presented by
Bill Mahoney
National Center for Atmospheric Research
MDSS Objective
To utilize state-of-the-art atmospheric scienceand engineering approaches to address andimprove the performanceof the roadmaintenancepractitioner.
MDSS Goals• Capitalize on existing road weather data sources.
• Augment data sources where they are weak.
• Fuse data to make an integrated and
understandable presentation
of road conditions.
• Provide diagnostic and prognostic information.
MDSS Goals (continued)
• Provide display capability for the condition of the roadway.
• Develop a decision support tool that provides recommendations on road maintenance courses of action together with anticipated consequences of action or inaction.
• Provide all the above on a single platform.
MDSS Prototype Components
WeatherData
AdvancedWeather
Capabilities DecisionSupport
Logic
Display
DOT Operations Data
RoadConditionModule
External SystemInterface
MDSS Prototype Focus Areas
Weather Component Focus :
• Event start and stop times• Surface temperature• Precipitation type• Precipitation rate• Precipitation accumulation• Conditional probabilities• Surface wind speed• Surface wind direction• Surface visibility
MDSS Prototype Focus Areas
Road Component Focus:
• Pavement temperature and trends• Pavement chemical concentration• Pavement friction coefficient• Pavement contamination (liquid, snow, ice, etc.)• Snow drifting
MDSS Prototype Focus Areas
Decision Support System Component Focus:
• Monitor weather & road conditions• Monitor probability & intensity of weather threat• Crew scheduling• Manage crew shifts• Dispatch crews to treat roadway• Coordinate emergency management• Manage incidents• Monitor crew working time• Post event clean up
Proposed Engineering Approach for MDSS
Eta ModelMRF ModelAVN ModelNGM MOSSatelliteMETARSRadar MosaicSYNOPLightning
DICAST Processor Wx Output:
Wind SpeedWind DirectionRHAir TempPrecip RatePrecip TypeLightningRadar MosaicVisibilityDew PointPrecip AccumCloud CoverInsolationNWS Advisories
NWS AdvisoriesOthers TBD
Road Condition Module:
Road FrictionRoad TemperatureSnow Drift
DSS Processor
Display
Demonstration
Data Interface to External Systems
Pass through Data
DOT “Wx” Data:
Video ImagesESS (Wx stations)
DOT Ops Data:
StaffEquipmentTreatment StocksTraffic DensityTraffic SpeedPavement Characteristics
Others TBD
DataIngest
Forecast Module A
Forecast Module B
Forecast Module C
Forecast Module D
Forecast Module N
.
.
.
Integrator
PostProcessing
ForecastProduct
Standard Wx Data
Ensemble Forecasts
Rules of PracticeModule
“NOAA”Weather Data
DOT Wx Data
DOTOperations
Data
Road ConditionModule
Decision SupportSystem Module
GIS Display
.
.
.
DataIngest
Forecast Module A
Forecast Module B
Forecast Module C
Forecast Module D
Forecast Module N
ForecastIntegrator
PostProcessor
ForecastProduct
DICAST
WeatherParameter
Output
Point & TimeSpecificOutput
Conceptual System Diagram for MDSS
Eta ModelMRF ModelAVN ModelNGM MOSSatelliteMETARSRadar MosaicSYNOPLightning
DICAST Processor Wx Output:
Wind SpeedWind DirectionRHAir TempPrecip RatePrecip TypeLightningRadar MosaicVisibilityDew PointPrecip AccumCloud CoverInsolationNWS Advisories
NWS AdvisoriesOthers TBD
Road Condition Module:
Road FrictionRoad TemperatureSnow Drift
DSS Processor
Display
Demonstration
Data Interface to External Systems
Pass through Data
DOT “Wx” Data:
Video ImagesESS (Wx stations)
DOT Ops Data:
StaffEquipmentTreatment StocksTraffic DensityTraffic SpeedPavement Characteristics
Others TBD
DataIngest
Forecast Module A
Forecast Module B
Forecast Module C
Forecast Module D
Forecast Module N
.
.
.
Integrator
PostProcessing
ForecastProduct
Standard Wx Data
Ensemble Forecasts
Rules of PracticeModule
GIS Display
DataIngest
Forecast Module A
Forecast Module B
Forecast Module C
Forecast Module D
Forecast Module N
ForecastIntegrator
PostProcessor
ForecastProduct
DICAST
.
.
.
Chemical Concentration
Weather Data
Point & TimeSpecificOutput
Environmental Prediction Sites
Environmental prediction parameters will be generated along the road.
These data will be used by the road condition algorithms.
Translation of Environmental Data to Road Condition Information
Environmental Data Grids
Road condition information provided at user configurable locations along the road.
Road conditionalgorithmsconvert environmentaldata at road points
Special Features of the MDSS
• Takes advantage of standard & road weather sensor data via intelligent data integration.
• Utilizes an automated, high resolution forecast system with advanced data fusion techniques.
• Provides probability (confidence) information for environmental parameters.
Special Features of the MDSS
• Has the capability of utilizing several road condition algorithms to provide a “best” solution.
• Merges environmental & operational data within the DSS.
• Provides decision guidance in decision space and provides recommended courses of action and allows users to evaluate other courses of action.
MDSS Technology Applications
Winter Maintenance
Emergency Management
Traffic Management
Hurricane Evacuation
Weed Spraying Sweeping Operations Controlled Burns
Public Notification
Pavement Marking
Paving Operations
Warning Preparation
MDSS Core Technology
Proposed Architecture of Hurricane Evacuation DSS
Hurricane Evacuation Subsystem• Focused on 24 – 48 hr period prior to gale force winds on
the coast• Updated every six hours in phase with NHC advisories• Uses weather, incident,
maintenance and traffic modeling data to show decision makers estimated evacuation rates andproblem areas
• Between update times, “what if” scenarios can be run to estimate impact of track and intensity changes
Proposed Architecture of Hurricane Evacuation DSS
• Focused on weather and road conditions as gale force winds, heavy rain, lightning and tornadoes move inland
• Continuous monitor mode with updates every 5 – 15 minutes
• Maximum wind, accumulated rainfall, rainfall rate, and lightning rate displayed for key locations designated by emergency managers
Tactical Support for Emergency Response Subsystem
Proposed Architecture of Hurricane Evacuation DSS
• System will be used for timing post-storm responses to ensure safety of crews
• Storm location and past track displayed
• Future storm locations with estimatedwind and rainfall forecasts displayed for every 3 hrs out to 12 hours
• Road condition information constantly updated
Tactical Support for Emergency Response Subsystem
Recommended Research & Development Areas
• Application of new data fusion techniques to TPC operations to improve 1 – 5 day track and intensity forecasts
• Optimal methods for utilizing weather informationin traffic models
• Validation of DSS’s in operational settings
The Endwagoner@ucar.edu
303-497-8404