Hubungan Fertflitas dengan Pendapatan, Harapan Hidup dan Pendidikan di Indonesia Oleh : Nuriman Hasibuan

Summary

Population economists have used linear regression models to observe the effects of various socio-economic factors upon fertility. Among then! Adelman, Heer, Janowitz, Ekanem and Leet have analyzed the correlation if variables using cross-section data.

Other studies were carried out by Singarimbun, Hull and Suharta at <a\ though utilizing different approaches, in several instances, they arrived it nearly similar conclusions. However, it has not been possible so far to deduce a stable theory from all those studies because of various reasons, different indicators used as the measure of a variable, the quality of dat i, the processes of identifying and specifying the variables for analysis, and so on.

The present article observes the relations of several variables ti total fertility in Indonesia using regression models, simple as well as multiple. The analysis is based on cross-section data of 1971 covering 25 provinces and the variables are: gross regional domestic products, growt t rate per capita, life expectancy, the percentage of agricultural employmen t of the labor force and the ever-married proportion of the population.

The correlation between income, growth, life expectancy and fertility, in the first of two models is negative, and positive in the second model, The relation between education and fertility, in the first model, is positivt but negative according to the second model. In both models the proportiot of the labor force employed in the agricultural sector as a variable has c positive effect, though its significance appears to be low. Nevertheless, should the shift continue from agricultural to non-agricultural employment, this could mean a reduction of total fertility.

In brief, some of the analysis results seem to contradict earlier findings, while others bear out the results of previous research. Further and more accurate explorations are required before the effects of Indonesia's develop­ment upon its birthrate can be precisely determined.

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Pendahuluan

S e j a k a w a l P e m b a n g u n a n L i m a T a h u n K e d u a , t e l a h m u l a i d i u t a r a k a n ga-g a s a n t e n t a n g r e n c a n a p e n u r u n a n t i n g k a t k e l a h i r a n s e k i t a r 5 0 p e r s e n m e n ­j e l a n g t a h u n d u a r i b u a n (40: 1973). P a d a s a a t y a n g b e r s a m a a n t e r l i h a t p u l a a n g k a 2 , 3 - 2 , 4 p e r s e n d i g u n a k a n u n t u k p r o y e k s i j u m l a h p e n d u d u k s a m p a i d e n g a n a k h i r P E L I T A I I , t e t a p i k e m u d i a n u n t u k l i m a t a h u n b e r ­i k u t n y a , d i p a k a i a n g k a 2 p e r s e n p e r t a h u n ( 4 1 d a n 4 2 ) .

S i k a p o p t i m i s t e r h a d a p u s a h a - u s a h a u n t u k m e r i n t a n g i t i n g k a t k e l a h i r a n s a n g a t l a h t e r p u j i . B e r b a g a i h a s i l l a p o r a n t e n t a n g p e l a k s a n a a n p r o g r a m K e ­l u a r g a B e r e n c a n a m e n u n j u k k a n k e s u k s e s a n , w a l a u p u n d i s a n a - s i n i m e m p e r ­l i h a t k a n p u l a b e r b a g a i k e s a n g s i a n t e n t a n g k e b e n a r a n m a u p u n v a l i d i t a s n y a (20: 1976 dan 22: 1976).

B e r b a g a i p i h a k t e n t u l a h m e n y a d a r i p u l a b a h w a t i n g k a t k e l a h i r a n y a n g h a r u s d i t u r u n k a n s e c a r a b e r a n g s u r d a n b e r t a h a p i t u , t i d a k l a h s e m a t a - m a t a d a p a t d i u k u r d a r i j u m l a h d i s t r i b u s i a l a t - a l a t k o n t r a s e p s i a t a u p u n h a n y a d e n g a n m e n g a m a t i j u m l a h a k s e p t o r , o l e h k a r e n a b e r b a g a i m o t i v a s i y a n g d i ­s a d a r i a t a u t i d a k k e m u n g k i n a n n y a d a p a t p u l a b e r k e m b a n g k e a r a h y a n g b e r l a w a n a n . F a k t o r - f a k t o r l a i n y a n g d e w a s a i n i t e l a h b a n y a k m e n d a p a t p e r b a t i a n u n t u k d i t e U t i s e p e r t i , e k o n o m i , s o s i a l b u d a y a d a n m a l a h a n j u g a p e r a n a n a g a m a . ' F a k t o r - f a k t o r i n i t i d a k b e k e r j a s e n d i r i - s e n d i r i , t e t a p i b e r -k o m b i n a s i , s e h i n g g a m e m p e r s u l i t u n t u k m e l a k u k a n p e n g a m a t a n d a n p e n g ­u j i a n . K e r t a s k e r j a i n i m e n c o b a u n t u k m e n g a m a t i p e n g a r u h p e r k e m b a n g a n e k o n o m i , t m g k a t p e n d i d i k a n , p e r o b a h a n s t r u k t u r a n g k a t a n k e r j a , t e r h a d a p f e r t i l i t a s d i I n d o n e s i a d e n g a n m e n g g u n a k a n d a t a - s i l a n g 1 9 7 1 . W a l a u p u n k e m a p a n a n t e o r i u n t u k m e n d u k u n g h u b u n g a n - h u b u n g a n i t u m a s i h d a p a t d i p e r d e b a t k a n , n a m u n b e r d a s a r k a n p e n e l i t i a n - p e n e l i t i a n y a n g t e l a h d i l a k u ­k a n , m a k a l a h i n i a k a n m e n g a n a l i s a h u b u n g a n - h u b u n g a n i t u s e c a r a e k o n o -m e t r i s t e r h a d a p d a t a y a n g k e m u n g k i n a n n y a d a p a t d i g u n a k a n .

P e n e l i t i a n - p e n e l i t i a n y a n g t e l a h d i l a k u k a n m e m p e r l i h a t k a n h a s i l - h a s i l y a n g k a d a n g - k a d a n g , m a l a h a n d a l a m b a n y a k h a l b e r b e d a . H u b u n g a n f e r t i -l i t a s d e n g a n p e n d a p a t a n , d i s a m p i n g p e n g a r u h n y a p o s i t i f a t a u n e g a t i f , t e ­t a p i j u g a a p a k a h p e n g a r u h i t u l a n g s u n g a t a u t i d a k . D e m i k i a n p u l a p e n g a r u h p e n d i d i k a n , m u n g k i n l a n g s u n g a t a u t i d a k l a n g s u n g d e n g a n a r a h y a n g s a m a

, a t a u b e r l a w a n a n (5: 78). L e b i h l a n j u t s t r u k t u r t e n a g a k e r j a , s e p e r t i p e r o b a h ­a n t e n a g a k e r j a d a r i s e k t o r p e r t a n i a n k e s e k t o r n o n p e r t a n i a n , u r b a n i s a s i , p a r t i s i p a s i k a u m w a n i t a , k e m u n g k i n a n m e m p u n y a i h u b u n g a n d e n g a n f e r t i ­l i t a s . V a r i a b e l - v a r i a b e l l a i n y a n g a k a n d i a m a t i d a l a m k e s e m p a t a n i n i a d a l a h

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h a r a p a n h i d u p d a n p r o p o r s i j u m l a h p e n d u d u k y a n g p e r n a h k a w i n . A d i i m a k s u d u n t u k m e n g a n a l i s a p e n g a r u h t i n g k a t k e s e h a t a n k a r e n a v a r i a b e l n i o l e h p a r a a h l i d a p a t d i a n g g a p s e b a g a i f a k t o r l a n g s u n g y a n g m e m p e n g a r i h i t i n g k a t k e l a h i r a n . T e t a p i m a s i h s u k a r u n t u k m e n d a p a t k a n i n d i k a t o r - i n d i k a t j i y a n g k e m u n g k i n a n n y a l a y a k s e p e r t i g i z i , d a n p r o s e n t a s e p e n d u d u k y a i g p e r n a h m e n d a t a n g i K e l i n i k , P u s k e s m a s d a n R u m a h - r u m a h S a k i t .

K e l e m a h a n - k e l e m a h a n d a r i p a d a a n a l i s a , k i r a n y a , c u k u p j e l a s , t i d i k h a n y a p a d a m o d e l , t e t a p i j u g a p a d a a s u m s i - a s u m s i y a n g t e r l e k a t p a d a da i a k e p e n d u d u k a n . N a m u n , d a r i t i n j a u a n p u s t a k a y a n g d i l a k u k a n , m o d e l ip t e l a h b a n y a k d i g u n a k a n o l e h a h l i - a h l i e k o n o m i k e p e n d u d u k a n .

Tinjauan Pustaka

B e b e r a p a s t u d i t e n t a n g a n a l i s a f e r t i l i t a s d e n g a n m e n g g u n a k a n m o d e l b e n t u r e g r e s i d a r i b e b e r a p a v a r i a b e l s o s i a l e k o n o m i t e l a h c u k u p b a n y a k d i l a k u k a n . S t u d i y a n g a k a n d i s a j i k a n s e c a r a s i n g k a t a n t a r a l a i n a d a l a h : A d e l m a n (]: 1962), H e e r (17: 1966), J a n o w i t z (23: 1971), E k a n e m (11: 1971 d a n L e e t (29: 1977). M e r e k a t e l a h m e n g a n a l i s a v a r i a b e l - v a r i a b e l p e n d a p a t a n p e n d i d i k a n , s t r u k t u r a n g k a t a n k e r j a , k e p a d a t a n p e n d u d u k d a n k o n s u m s : e n e r g i .

A d e l m a n m e n g a m a t i p e n g a r u h p e n d a p a t a n p e r k a p i t a t i n g k a t i n d u s ­t r i a l i s a s i , p e n d i d i k a n d a n k e p a d a t a n p e n d u d u k d a r i 3 4 n e g e r i t e r h a d a p t i n g k a t k e l a h i r a n k h u s u s ( A S F R ) . P e n g a r u h p e n d a p a t a n p a d a t i n g k a t k e l a h i r a n d e n g a n k e l o m p o k u m u r i h u ( 1 5 - 1 9 ) s a m p a i d e n g a n k e l o m p o k ( 4 5 - 4 9 ) t i d a k b e r a r t i , k e c u a l i p a d a d u a k e l o m p o k u m u r y a n g p e r t a m a . S e c a r a k e -s e l u r u h a n t e r l i h a t h u b u n g a n y a n g p o s i t i f .

P e n g a r u h t i n g k a t i n d u s t r i a U s a s i d i u k u r d e n g a n p r o p o r s i j u m l a h t e n a ­ga k e r j a y a n g t e r l i b a t d i l u a r s e k t o r p e r t a n i a n . T e r n y a t a h u b u n g a n n y a a d a l a h n e g a t i f , t e t a p i y a n g b e r a r t i u n t u k k e l o m p o k u m u r i b u - i b u ( 3 5 - 3 9 ) s a m p a i d e n g a n ( 4 5 - 4 9 ) . D e m i k i a n j u g a u n t u k p e n g a r u h p e n d i d i k a n d e n g a n i n d i k a t o r i n d e k s m e l e k - h u r u f , d a n j u m l a h s i r k u l a s i k o r a n d i m a s i n g - m a s i n g n e g a r a y a n g d i a m a t i , t e r n y a t a n e g a t i f d a n b e r a r t i u n t u k s e m u a k e l o m p o k . T e r l i h a t p u l a b a h w a k e p a d a t a n p e n d u d u k p e r m i l p e r s e g i m e m p u n y a i e f e k y a n g b e r a r t i . K h u s u s u n t u k n e g e r i y a n g t e l a h m a j u , b a i k t a n d a k o e f i s i e n r e g r e s i , m a u p u n k e b e r a r t i a n h u b u n g a n m a s i n g - m a s i n g v a r i a b e l t a r m e n g a l a m i v a r i a s i b i l a d i b a n d i n g k a n d e n g a n g a b u n g a n k e d u a p e n g a m a t r (1: 1962 : 321 - 323).

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J a n o w i t z d i s a m p i n g m e n g g u n a k a n m o d e l A d e l m a n , m e n c o b a p u l a m e n g g u n a k a n v a r i a b e l - b o n e k a ( d u m m y - v a r i a b l e ) . V a r i a b e l p e n d a p a t a n p e r k a p i t a t e t a p d i g u n a k a n , s e d a n g k a n v a r i a b e l p e n d i d i k a n d i w a k i l i d e n g a n p r o ­p o r s i w a n i t a y a n g b u t a - h u r u f . L e b i h l a n j u t v a r i a b e l u n t u k t i n g k a t i n d u s t r i a l i ­s a s i d i g u n a k a n p r o p o r s i a n g k a t a n - k e r j a p a d a s e k t o r p e r t a n i a n . V a r i a b e l -v a r i a b e l l a i n y a n g d i a m a t i n y a a d h l a h a n g k a h a r a p a n h i d u p , d a n a n g k a k e ­m a t i a n a n a k - a n a k , s e d a n g k a n u n t u k m e n g u k u r f e r t i l i t a s d i g u n a k a n n y a t i n g ­k a t r e p r o d u k s i b r u t o ( G R R ) . S e t e l a h m e l a k u k a n p e n g u j i a n t e r h a d a p k e l e ­m a h a n - k e l e m a h a n y a n g t e r d a p a t d a l a m m o d e l A d e l m a n , J a n o w i t z m e l a k u ­k a n p e n g e l o m p o k a n t e r h a d a p s a m p e l , e r d i r i d a r i n e g e r i - n e g e r i A s i a , A f r i k a , L a t i n A m e r i k a , d a n m e m b e d a k a n E r o p a U t a r a d a n S e l a t a n d e n g a n E r o p a B a r a t . J u m l a h s a m p e l k e s e l u r u h a n m e n c a k u p 6 7 n e g e r i - n e g e r i y a n g t e l a h m a j u d a n y a n g s e d a n g b e r k e m b a n g .

T e r n y a t a b e b e r a p a v a r i a b e l t e r s e b u t m e m p u n y a i h u b u n g a n - g a n d a y a n g c u k u p t i n g g i , s e h i n g g a t e r p a k s a d i k e l u a r k a n . A k h i r n y a d i a b e r k e s i m p u l a n b a h w a f e r t i l i t a s t i d a k h a n y a d i p e n g a m h i o l e h t i n g k a t p e m b a n g u n a n s u a t u n e g a r a s a j a , t e t a p i j u g a d i s e b a b k a n o l e h p e r b e d a a n - p e r b e d a a n w a r i s a n k u l t u r i l a n t a r a w i l a y a h (23:1971: 326). L e b i h l a n j u t J i t e m u k a n r e n d a h n y a t i n g k a t b u t a h u r u f d a n t i n g k a t k e m a t i a n b e r a k i b a t f e r t i l i t a s y a n g r e n d a h , s e d a n g ­k a n p e n g a r u h p e n d a p a t a n p e r k a p i t a a d a l a h n e g a t i f d a n t i d a k b e r a r t i . F a k t o r b u t a h u r u f d i n e g e r i - n e g e r i y a n g k u r a n g b e r k e m b a n g a d a l a h p o s i t i f t e t a p i t i d a k b e r a r t i , s e d a n g k a n d i n e g e r h n e g e r i y a n g l e b i h m a j u p o s i t i f d a n b e r a r t i . P e n g a r u h h a r a p a n h i d u p m a l a h s e b a l i k n y a . H u b u n g a n i n i p o s i t i f , t e t a p i t i d a k b e r a r t i d i n e g e r i - n e g e r i y a n g l e b i h m a j u , s e r t a n e g a t i f d a n b e r ­a r t i d i n e g a r a - n e g a r a k u r a n g m a j u .

P a d a t a h u n 1 9 6 6 H e e r m e n e l i t i p u l a h u b u n g a n a n t a r a t i n g k a t k e l a h i r a n u m u m u n t u k l a k i - l a k i , y a k n i j u m l a h k e l a h i r a n d i b a g i d e n g a n j u m l a h p e n d u ­d u k l a k i - l a k i y a n g b e r u m u r ( 1 5 - 5 4 ) t a h u n , d e n g a n p e n d a p a t a n p e r k a p i t a n a s i o n a l p e n d u d u k y a n g b e r u m u r ( 1 5 - 6 4 ) t a h u n , p e r e d a r a n s u r a t - k a b a r p e r 1 0 0 0 p e n d u d u k y a n g b e r u m u r d i a t a s 1 5 t a h u n , t i n g k a t k e m a t i a n a n a k -a n a k , k e p a d a t a n p e n d u d u k p e r k i l o m e t e r p e r s e g i d a n p r o s e n t a s e p e r t u m ­b u h a n k o n s u m s i e n e r j i p e r k a p i t a .

H a s i l p e n e l i t i a n n y a m e m p e r l i h a t k a n b a h w a p e n g a r u h t i n g k a t k e m a t i a n a n a k - a n a k t e r h a d a p f e r t i l i t a s a d a l a h p o s i t i f d a n b e r a r t i , b a i k u n t u k m o d e l i d i t i f m a u p u n p e r k a l i a n , s e d a n g k a n p a d a m o d e l y a n g k e d u a , v a r i a b e l l a i n a n g m e m p u n y a i e f e k y a n g b e r a r t i a d a l a h k e p a d a t a n p e n d u d u k d e n g a n u b u n g a n y a n g n e g a t i f . L e b i h l a n j u t t i n g k a t p e r t u m b u h a n k o n s u m s i i e n e r j i ) r k a p i t a t i d a k m e m p u n y a i p e h g a r u h y a n g b e r a r t i t e t a p i m e m p e r l i h a t k a n I b u n g a n y a n g p o s i t i f , (17: 1966: 435).

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D i a m e n y a d a r i j u g a b a h w a e f e k p e n d a p a t a n t e r h a d a p f e r t i l i t a s 1 :e m u n g k i n a n l a n g s u n g a t a u t i d a k . P e n g a r u h t i d a k l a n g s u n g , k e m u n g k i n a n n y j . t e r l e b i h d u l u m e l a l u i p e n d i d i k a n d a n k e s e h a t a n . P e n d a p a t a n n a i k , m a q k o n s u m s i n a i k d a n t i n g k a t p e n d i d i k a n n a i k m a k a t i n g k a t k e m a t i a n a n r k a n a k t u r u n . D e m i k i a n p u l a , p e n d a p a t a n n a i k , t i n g k a t k e s e h a t a n k e m u r g k i n a n n y a m e n i n g k a t d a n t i n g k a t k e m a t i a n a n a k - a n a k m e n u r u n s e h i n g f a t i n g k a t k e l a h i r a n m e n u r u n . T e t a p i m e n u r u t a n a l i s a n y a , t i n g k a t p e m b a n g u n i r , e k o n o m i m e m p u n y a i p e n g a r u h l a n g s u n g , t e t a p i b e l u m t e r b u k t i s e c a r a be|r-a r t i .

E k a n e m d a l a m t u l i s a n n y a , m e n c o b a u n t u k m e n i n j a u m o d e l y a n g t e l a i d i k e m u k a k a n o l e h H e e r d e n g a n m e n g e l o m p o k k a n n e g e r i - n e g e r i m a j u d a i

s e d a n g b e r k e m b a n g . D i a b e r p e n d a p a t b a h w a u n t u k m e n g a n a l i s a p e n g a r u i t i n g k a t p e m b a n g u n a n e k o n o m i t e r h a d a p f e r t i U t a s t i d a k l a h p a t u t u n t u k m e n g g a b u n g k a n k e d u a k e l o m p o k n e g e r i - n e g e r i t e r s e b u t (11: 1972: 387 i A n t a r a l a i n d i a b e r k e s i m p u l a n b a h w a d a l a m p e n e l i t i a n t e r s e b u t b e l u m m ( n u n j u k k a n k e s i m p u i a n : " m e n i n g k a t n y a p e m b a n g u n a n e k o n o m i b e r a k i b a | t m e n u r u n n y a t i n g k a t k e l a h i r a n s e c a r a k o n s i s t e n " .

D i s a m p i n g i t u , E k a n e m m e m a k l u m i t e n t a n g b e r b a g a i m o d e l r e g r e s d e n g a n b e r b a g a i v a r i a b e l y a n g d i a m a t i t i d a k d i d u k u n g o l e h d a t a y a n g a k u r a t s e h i n g g a m e n i m b u l k a n k e s i m p u l a n - k e s i m p u l a n y a n g m a s i h d i r a g u k a n k e b e n a r a n n y a .

D a l a m p e n e l i t i a n n y a p a d a t a h u n 1 8 5 0 , L e e t m e n g g u n a k a n p e n g e r t i a n f e r t i l i t a s s e b a g a i r a t i a a n a k - a n a k y a n g b e r u m u r ( 0 - 9 ) t a h u n t e r h a d a p w a n i t a k u l i t p u t i h y a n g b e r u m u r ( 1 6 - 4 4 ) t a h u n . D a t a p e n e l i t i a n i r i i b e r s i f a t d a t a s i l a n g d a r i O h i o . V a r i a b e l - v a r i a b e l i n d e p e n d e n y a n g d i a n i l i s a a d a l a h n i l a i t a n a h n o n - u r b a n , u r b a n i s a s i p e n d i d i k a n d a n w a r i s a n k u l t u r i l . S e l u r u h v a r i a b e l i n i t e r l i h a t m e m p u n y a i h u b u n g a n y a n g b e r a r t i d a n b e r s i f a t n e g a t i f . j

K a l a u d i p e r b a t i k a n p e n e l i t i a n - p e n e l i t i a n y a n g d i k e m u k a k a n t a d i , m a k a t e r l i h a t p e r s a m a a n - p e r s a m a a n s e c a r a u m u m , i y a k n i :

1 ) M o d e l y a n g d i g u n a k a n a d a l a h r e g r e s i l i n i e r ; 2 ) D a t a y a n g d i g u n a k a n a d a l a h d a t a - s i l a n g ; 3 ) M e n g g u n a k a n s a l a h s a t u v a r i a b e l e k o n o m i , s e p e r t i p e n d a p a t a n

p e r k a p i t a a t a u n i l a i t a n a h a t a u k o n s u m s i e n e r j i ; 4 ) M e n g g u n a k a n v a r i a b e l p e n d i d i k a n d e n g a n i n d i k a t o r y a n g b e r ­

b e d a - b e d a . 5 ) M e n g g u n a k a n v a r i a b e l k e p a d a t a n p e n d u d u k ; 6 ) M e n g g u n a k a n v a r i a b e l i n d u s t r i a l i s a s i d e n g a n b e r m a c a m - m a c a m

i n d i k a t o r .

E K I , Vol. XXVIII, No. 2, June 1980 183

ll

D i I n d o n e s i a s e j a k t a h u n 1 9 6 9 t e l a h d i m u l a i p e n e l i t i a n - p e n e l i t i a n t e n t a n g p e n g a r u h p e n d a p a t a n , p e n d i d i k a n d a n b e b e r a p a v a r i a b e l s o s i a l l a i n n y a d e n g a n p e r a l a t a n s t a t i s t i k s e p e r t i y a n g d i l a k u k a n S i n g a r i m b u n (39: 76), T e r e n c e d a n V a l e r i e H u l l (20:1976) d a n S a m S u h a r t o (38:1975).

S i n g a r i m b u n p a d a t a h u n 1 9 6 9 / 1 9 7 0 t e l a h m e l a k u k a n p e n e l i t i a n d i desa M o j o l a m a , K e l u r a h a n S r i h a i j o . D a l a m p e n e l i t i a n i n i , s t a t u s s o s i a l e k o n o m i y a n g d i g u n a k a n a d a l a h l a m a s e k o l a h , t a n a h y a n g d i m i l i k i d a n i n d e k s s t a t u s e k o n o m i ( p e n d a p a t a n ) . M e n u r u t k e s i m p u l a n n y a t e r n y a t a , k e l u a r g a - k e l u a r g a y a n g l e b i h m a m p u d e n g a n i n d e k s s t a t u s e k o n o m i y a n g l e b i h t i n g g i , m e l a h i r -k a n l e b i h b a n y a k a n a k d i b a n d i n g k a n d e n g a n k e l u a r g a - k e l u a r g a m i s k i n . D e m i ­k i a n p u l a , a n a k - a n a k y a n g l a h i r d a r i k e l u a r g a - k e l u a r g a y a n g l e b i h l a m a d u d u k d i b a n g k u s e k o l a h t i d a k l a h m e m p u n y a i a n a k l e b i h s e d i k i t d a r i p a d a m e r e k a y a n g t i d a k b e r p e n d i d i k a n . K e n y a t a a n y a n g d i j u m p a i d i M o j o l a m a ,

t e r n y a t a d i t e m u k a n p u l a o l e h V a l e r i e d a n T e r e n c e H u l l d i de sa M a g u w o h a i j o . P e n e l i t i a n y a n g d i l a k u k a n t a h u n 1 9 7 2 / 7 3 t e r s e b u t b e r k e s i m p u l a n a d a n y a h u b u n g a n y a n g p o s i t i f a n t a r a k l a s e k o n o m i b a i k t e r h a d a p a n a k y a n g p e r n a h d i l a h i r k a n m a u p u n j u m l a h a n a k y a n g m a s i h h i d u p (20:1976: 22).

S a m S u h a r t o t e l a h p u l a m e l a k u k a n p e n e l i t i a n t e n t a n g p e n g a r u h k w a l i ­t a s r u m a h p a d a t i n g k a t K a b u p a t e n t e r h a d a p f e r t i l i t a s . K e s i m p u l a n n y a a n t a r a l a i n m e n y a t a k a n b a h w a s t a t u s k w a l i t a s r u m a h y a n g s e m a k i n t i n g g i m e m p e r ­l i h a t k a n f e r t i l i t a s j u g a t i n g g i . D i p e r k i r a k a n p u l a , s t a t u s k w a l i t a s r u m a h y a n g t i n g g i i n i b e r h u b u n g a n e r a t d e n g a n t i n g k a t p e n d a p a t a n (38: 1975: 32). S t a t u s t e r s e b u t d i g o l o n g k a n a t a s r e n d a h , m a d y a d a n t i n g g i . J a d i t a m p a k a d a ­n y a h u b u n g a n y a n g p o s i t i f a n t a r a s t a t u s k w a l i t a s r u m a h d e n g a n f e r t i l i t a s .

Model dan Data

M a k a l a h i n i m e n c o b a u n t u k m e n g a m a t i p e n g a r u h f a k t o r - f a k t o r p e n d a p a t a n , p e n d i d i k a n , s t r u k t u r t e n a g a k e r j a d a n h a r a p a n h i d u p t e r h a d a p f e r t i l i t a s d i I n d o n e s i a d e n g a n d a t a d a s a r s e n s u s p e n d u d u k 1 9 7 1 . M o d e l y a n g d i g u n a k a n a d a l a h m o d e l r e g r e s i l i n i e r d e n g a n v a r i a b e l b e r g a n d a . S e p a n j a n g p e n g e t a h u a n p e n u l i s , m o d e l i n i b e l u m p e r n a h d i g u n a k a n d i I n d o n e s i a . M e m a n g d i a k u i b a h w a k e l e m a h a n u t a m a m o d e l i n i a d a l a h a s u m s i - a s u m s i y a n g d i t e m u k a n d a l a m d i r i n y a . N a m u n d e m i k i a n U n i e r i t a s a d a b e n a r n y a , o l e h k a r e n a s e t e l a h d i t e l i t i d e n g a n d i a g r a m - s e b a r a n , m a k a m o d e l i n i d a p a t d i g u n a k a n . D i s a m p i n g i t u , s e p e r t i t e l a h d i u t a r a k a n d a l a m b e r b a g a i h a s i l p e n e l i t i a n , m o d e l t e r s e b u t m a l a h a n d a p a t p u l a d i g u n a k a n u n t u k m e m p r e d i k s i t i n g k a t k e l a h i r a n u n t u k j a n g k a w a k t u t e r t e n t u . M a s a l a h n y a a d a l a h s a m p a i b e r a p a j a u h d a t a y a n g t e r s e d i a d a p a t d i p e r c a y a d a n c o c o k d e n g a n m o d e l - m o d e l a t a u p u n t e o r i y a n g a d a . S e b a g i a n a h l i b e r p e n d a p a t , b a h w a j i k a d a t a t i d a k c o c o k d e n g a n t e o r i , m a k a d a t a t i d a k b e n a r , a k a n t e t a p i m a k a l a h i n i t i d a k d a p a t m e n g a b a i k a n

1 8 4 E K I , Vol. XXVIII, No. 2, June 1980

k e m u n g k i n a n u n t u k m e n y e m p u m a k a n t e o r i y a n g t e l a h a d a . D i b a l i k p e r s o a l a n i t u , m a s i h d a l a m p e r d e b a t a n p u l a p e n g g u n a a n b( r-

b a g a i t e o r i e k o n o m i d a l a m k e p e n d u d u k a n . T e o r i B e c k e r y a n g m e n g a n g g a p t e o r i p e r i l a k u k o n s u m e n t e r h a d a p b a r a n g - b a r a n g t a h a n l a m a d a p a t d i s a m a k i r d e n g a n p r e f e r e n s i o r a n g t u a t e r h a d a p a n a k , t a m p a k n y a m a s i h b a n y a k m e n ( i a p a t k r i t i k , w a l a u p u n d i p i h a k l a i n b a n y a k p u l a y a n g m e n y o k o n g n j s e p e r t i y a n g d i k e m u k a k a n o l e h C a i l d w e l l ( 6 ) d a n L e v i n e (31: 1966), F r e e d m a n (12: 1974). P e n u l i s t e r a k h i r i n i m a s i h m e m p e r d e b a t k a n p e n g a r u h pejn d a p a t a n y a n g m a n a . A p a k a h p e n d a p a t a n a b s o l u t , r e l a t i f a t a u p e r m a n e n .

D a l a m a n a l i s a r e g r e s i i n i , s e m u a v a r i a b e l d i a n g g a p m e m p u n y a i e f e k l a n g s u n g t e r h a d a p f e r t i U t a s . D i a k u i p u l a d a l a m h a l t e r t e n t u t i d a k l a h b e n a r . N a m u n d e m i k i a n , u n t u k m e n e l i t i v a r i a b e l m a n a y a n g m e m p u n y a i e f e k I a n ; s u n g d a n t i d a k l a n g s u n g , k e m u n g k i n a n n y a a k a n l e b i h t e p a t d i p a k a i a n a l i s ^ -j a l u r y a n g s u d a h l a z i m p u l a d i g u n a k a n .

V a r i a b e l y a n g a k a n d i a n a l i s a d a l a m m a k a l a h i n i a d a l a h :

1) . F e r t i l i t a s

S e p e r t i t e l a h d i l i h a t p a d a b e r b a g a i p e n e l i t i a n p e n g u k u r a n t e r h a d a p f e r t i l i t t s i n i b e r m a c a m - m a c a m p u l a . D a l a m m a k a l a h i n i a k a n d i g u n a k a n t o t a l f e r t -l i t a s . D i s a m p i n g i t u a k a n d i h h a t p u l a b a g a i m a n a p e n g a r u h v a r i a b e l - v a r i a b ( 1 i n d e p e n d e n t e r h a d a p k e l a h i r a n k h u s u s ( A S F R ) . D a t a t e n t a n g h a l i n i d a p a t d i t e m u k a n p a d a S e n s u s p e n d u d u k ser f E (45: 1974) u n t u k 2 6 P r o p i n s i c i I n d o n e s i a . D e n g a n s e n d i r i n y a b e l u m t e r m a s u k P r o p i n s i T i m o r T i m u r .

2 ) . P e n d a p a t a n p e r k a p i t a .

P e n d a p a t a n p e r k a p i t a u n t u k m a s i n g - m a s i n g P r o p i n s i d a p a t d i j u m p a i p a d ; h a s i l p e r b i t u n g a n p e n d a p a t a n r e g i o n a l (46: 1978). O l e h k a r e n a s e n s u s 1 9 7 1 d i l a k u k a n b u k a n p a d a a k h i r 1 9 7 1 , m a k a u n t u k p e n d a p a t a n p e r k a p i t a d i -a i n b i l d a t a 1 9 7 0 , b u k a n 1 9 7 1 . A n g k a - a n g k a p e n d a p a t a n p e r k a p i t a i n i d a l a n h a r g a t e t a p 1 9 7 3 , t i d a k t e r m a s u k m i n y a k b u m i . D a p a t d i p e r k i r a k a n , b a h w a a n g k a p e n d a p a t a n p e r k a p i t a b r u t o k u r a n g s e n s i t i f t e r h a d a p p r i l a k u i n d i v i d u , b i l a d i b a n d i n g k a n d e n g a n p e n g e l u a r a n r u m a h t a n g g a . L e b i h l a n j u t a k a t i d i c o b a p u l a u n t u k m e m b a n d l n g k a n r e s p o n m a n a y a n g l e b i h k u a t , a p a k a t p e n d a p a t a n b r u t o p e r k a p i t a a t a u p e r t u m b u h a n n y a . U n t u k m a k s u d t e r s e b u t d i m a s u k k a n p u l a k e d a l a m a n a l i s a i n i t i n g k a t p e r t u m b u h a n p e n d a p a t a n b r u t o p e r k a p i t a t a n p a m i n y a k b u m i ( 1 9 6 8 - 1 9 7 1 ) d e n g a n h a r g a t e t a p 1 9 7 3

E K I , Vol. XXVIII, No. 2, June 1980 1 8 5

3). S t r u k t u r a n g k a t a n k e r j a .

V a r i a b e l i n i d a p a t j u g a s e b a g a i i n d i k a t o r p e n g a r u h i n d u s t r i a l i s a s i t e r h a d a p f e r t i l i t a s . N a m u n d e m i k i a n d a l a m m a k a l a h i n i m e l i h a t a s p e k y a n g b e r l a w a n a n , y a k n i d i u k u r d e n g a n p r o p o r s i j u m l a h a n g k a t a n k e r j a y a n g t e r l i b a t d a l a m s e k t o r p e r t a n i a n . A n g k a - a n g k a i n i d a p a t d i o l a h d a r i s e n s u s 1 9 7 1 (44:1975).

4 ) . T i n g k a t p e n d i d i k a n .

S e b a g a i m a n a t e l a h d i l i h a t p a d a t i n j a u a n p u s t a k a , i n d i k a t o r u n t u k t i n g k a t p e n d i d i k a n d i u k u r d e n g a n b e r b a g a i c a r a ; d a l a m m a k a l a h i n i i n d i k a t o r t e r ­s e b u t d e n g a n m e m p e r b a t i k a n p r o p o r s i p e n d u d u k y a n g b e r u n u i r 1 0 t a h u n k e a t a s , y a n g t i d a k p e r n a h s e k o l a h d a n t i d a k t a m a t s e k o l a h d a s a r . A n g k a - a n g k a i n i p u n d a p a t d i o l a h d a r i s e n s u s 1 9 7 1 (44:1975).

5 ) . H a r a p a n h i d u p .

A n g k a - a n g k a h a r a p a n h i d u p p a d a s a a t l a h i r u n t u k m a s i n g - m a s i n g P r o p i n s i d a p a t d i p e r o l e h d a r i p e r k i r a a n a n g k a k e l a h i r a n d a n k e m a t i a n d i I n d o n e s i a b e r d a s a r k a n s e n s u s p e n d u d u k 1 9 7 1 (28: 1976).

' 6). P r o p o r s i j u m l a h p e n d u d u k y a n g p e m a h k a w i n .

V a r i a b e l i n i d i m a s u k k a n k e d a l a m a n a l i s a a d a l a h d i l u a r t u j u a n s e m u l a , a k a n t e t a p i b e r d a s a r k a n p e n g a m a t a n s e l i n t a s t e r h a d a p a n g k a - a n g k a i n i a d a s e s u a t u h a l y a n g p e r l u d i u j i k e b e n a r a n n y a . A n g k a p r o p o r s i j u r r i l a h p e n d u d u k y a n g t e l a h p e m a h k a w i n p a d a s e n s u s 1 9 7 1 d a p a t p u l a d i j u m p a i , (44.-1975). W a l a u ­p u n m u n g k i n a k a n m e n i m b u l k a n b e r m a c a m - m a c a m d u g a a n , n a m u n d i p e r k i r a ­k a n m e n a r i k u n t u k d i b a h a s . J a d i m a s u k n y a v a r i a b e l i n i d a l a m p e r c o b a a n a t a s p e r t i m b a g a n r e l a t i f t i n g g i n y a t i n g k a t p e r c e r a i a n d i b e b e r a p a d a e r a h d i I n d o n e s i a , s e h i n g g a p e r i s t i w a i n i k e m u n g k i n a n m e m p u n y a i s u m b a n g a n y a n g t i d a k d i s a d a r i t e r h a d a p u s a h a - u s a h a m e n g u r a n g i t i n g k a t k e l a h i r a n . D i s a m p i n g i t u d a p a t j u g a d i p e r b a t i k a n h a s i l y a n g d i t e m u k a n S i n g a r i m b u n d i d e s a M o j o ­l a m a (39:1976).

186 E K I , Vol. XXVIII, No. 2, June 1980

T a b e l 1 P e n j e l a s a n V a r i a b e l - v a r i a b e l Y a n g D i a n a l i s a

No. unit

Simbol Penjelasan Satuan

1 . F 1 5 V a r i a b e l d e p e n d e n :

J u m l a h a n a k r a t a - r a t a y a n g d i l a h i r k a n w a n i t a y a n g b e r u m u r ( 1 5 - 1 9 ) t a h u n p a d a P r o p i n s i k e i

2 . F 2 5 J u m l a h a n a k r a t a - r a t a y a n g d i l a h i r k a n w a n i t a y a n g b e r u m u r ( 2 4 - 2 9 ) t a h u n p a d a P r o p i n s i k e i

3 . F 3 5 J u m l a h a n a k r a t a - r a t a y a n g d i l a h i r k a n w a n i t a y a n g b e r u m u r ( 3 5 - 3 9 ) t a h u n p a d a P r o p i n s i k e i

4 . F O l T o t a l f e r t i l i t a s p a d a P r o p i n s i k e i

V a r i a b e l i n d e p e n d e n :

5 . K A l P r o p o r s i j u m l a h p e n d u d u k y a n g p e m a h k a w i n p a d a P r o p i n s i k e i

6 . H A l H a r a p a n h i d u p w a n i t a s a a t k e l a h i r a n p a d a P r o p i n s i k e i

7 . P 7 0 P e n d a p a t a n p e r k a p i t a d e n g a n h a r g a t e t a p 1 9 7 3 t a n p a m i n y a k b u m i p a d a P r o p i n s i k e i

8 . G O l P e r t u m b u h a n p e n d a p a t a n p e r k a p i t a a t a s d a s a r h a r g a t e t a p 1 9 7 3 t a n p a m i n y a k b u m i p a d a P r o p i n s i k e i ( 1 9 7 8 - 1 9 7 1 ) .

9 . T A l P r o p o r s i j u m l a h a n g k a t a n k e r j a p a d a s e k ­t o r p e r t a n i a n d a r i s e l u r u h a n g k a t a n k e r j a p a d a P r o p i n s i k e i

1 0 . P E l P r o p o r s i j u m l a h p e n d u d u k 1 0 t a h u n k e a t a s y a n g t i d a k p e m a h s e k o l a h d a n y a n g t i d a k t a m a t S e k o l a h D a s a r p a d a P r o p i n s i k e i

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P e n j e l a s a n l e b i h l a n j u t t e n t a n g v a r i a b e l - v a r i a b e l i n i d a p a t d i l i h a t p a d a T a b e l 1 .

E K I , Vol. XXVIII, No. 2, June 1980 1 8 7

H a r a p a n - h a r a p a n t e r h a d a p h u b u n g a n a n t a r a f e r t i l i t a s d e n g a n v a r i a b e l -v a r i a b e l l a i n n y a t e n t u l a h t i d a k t e r l e p a s d a r i h a s i l t i n j a u a n p u s t a k a t a d i . P e n ­d a p a t a n d i d u g a a k a n m e m p u n y a i h u b u n g a n y a n g p o s i t i f t e r h a d a p f e r t i l i t a s . S e b a g i a n t e n t u l a h b e r d a s a r k a n h a s i l y a n g d i t e m u k a n b a i k q l e h A d e l m a n , H e e r , J a n o w i t z , E k a n e m u n t u k d a t a - s i l a n g a n t a r n e g a r a , t e t a p i j u g a p e n e l i t i a n m i k r o o l e h S i n g a r i m b u n d a n H u l l s u a m i i s t e r i .

H u b u n g a n a n t a r a d e p e n d e n v a r i a b e l d e n g a n s t r u k t u r a n g k a t a n k e r j a , y a k n i a n t a r a f e r t i l i t a s d e n g a n p r o p o r s i j u m l a h t e n a g a k e r j a p a d a s e k t o r p e r ­t a n i a n d i b a r a p k a n a d a l a h j u g a p o s i t i f . H a r a p a n i n i d i d a s a r k a n a t a s p e n e l i t i a n A d e l m a n d a n J a n o w i t z , d a n B h a t t a c h a r y y a . D a r i a n g k a - a n g k a y a n g d i t e ­m u k a n o l e h L e e J a y C h o e t al, s e b e n a m y a t e r l i h a t h u b u n g a n y a n g n e g a t i f , o l e h k a r e n a f e r t i h t a s t o t a l t e r t i n g g i m e n u m t p e k e r j a a n b u k a n l a h d a r i g o l o n g ­a n p e t a n i , a k a n t e t a p i b e r a s a l d a r i k e l o m p o k p r o f e s s i o n a l , k e p e m i m p i n a n d a n a d m i n i s t r a s i . N a m u n d e m i k i a n b i l a i n i y a n g b e n a r , m a k a h a r a p a n i n i da ­p a t d i a n g g a p s e b a g a i a l t e r n a t i f .

L e b i h l a n j u t t i n g k a t p e n d i d i k a n d a l a m m a k a l a h i n i d i b a r a p k a n m e m ­p u n y a i h u b u n g a n y a n g p o s i t i f t e r h a d a p f e r t i U t a s . A r t i n y a , m a k i n b e s a r p r o ­p o r s i j u m l a h p e n d u d u k y a n g t i d a k b e r s e k o l a h d a n y a n g t i d a k t a m a t s e k o l a h d a s a r , m a k a f e r t i l i t a s s e m a k i n t i n g g i . S t u d i m a k r o d e n g a n d a t a - s i l a n g , b a i k d a r i p r o p o r s i p e n d u d u k y a n g b u t a h u r u f ( E k a n e m ) m e n u n j u k k a n h u b u n g a n y a n g p o s i t i f , s e d a n g k a n A d e l m a n m e n g g u n a k a n i n d e k s m e l e k - h u r u f m e n d a p a t ­k a n h u b u n g a n y a n g n e g a t i f . T e t a p i p e r l u d i i n g a t , i n d i k a t o r v a r i a b e l y a n g d i ­g u n a k a n ,

H a r a p a n h i d u p d i p e r k i r a k a n m e m p u n y a i h u b u n g a n y a n g n e g a t i f d e n g a n f e r t i l i t a s ; h a l i n i d i d a s a r k a n k e p a d a p e n e l i t i a n y a n g d i l a k u k a n o l e h J a n o w i t z u n t u k n e g e r i - n e g e r i y a n g s e d a n g b e r k e m b a n g .

J a d i , j i k a h u b u n g a n t e r s e b u t a d a l a h n e g a t i f , i n i b e r a r t i b a h w a s e m a k i n t i n g g i t i n g k a t h a r a p a n h i d u p p e n d u d u k y a n g d i l a h i r k a n , m a k a f e r t i l i t a s se­m a k i n m e n u r u n .

A t a s d a s a r l o g i k a b i a s a t e n t u n y a t e l a h d a p a t d i p e r k i r a k a n b a h w a h u ­b u n g a n n e g a t i f d a p a t sa ja t e r j a d i s e b a g a i d u g a a n a l t e r n a t i f .

Penaksiran Model

P r o s e s p e n a k s i r a n d i l a k u k a n d e n g a n d u a t a h a p ; p e r t a m a d e n g a n m e n a k s i r s e m u a v a r i a b e l i n d e p e n d e n s e k a U g u s d a n k e m u d i a n d i t e l i t i v a r i a b e l - v a r i a b e l m a n a y a n g m e m p u n y a i h u b u n g a n - h u b u n g a n g a n d a ( m u l t i - c o l l i n e a r i t y ) , d a n d e n g a n d e m i k i a n d a p a t d i h h a t k o m b i n a s i v a r i a b e l m a n a p u l a y a n g m e m p u ­n y a i p e n g a r u h y a n g r e l a t i f k u a t . U n t u k m e n g e t a b u i p e n g a r u h t e r s e b u t , se­c a r a s e d e r h a n a d a p a t d i l i h a t n i l a i t s t a t i s t i k s e d a n g k a n s e c a r a k e s e l u r u h a n n i l a i s t a t i s t i k F ( p < 5 % ) . P r o s e s p e r t a m a t a d i d i l a k u k a n d a l a m d u a b e n t u k

1 8 8 E K I , Vol. XXVUI, No. 2, June 1980

-: \ -

m o d e l r e g r e s i , y a k n i r e g r e s i b i a s a d a n m o d e l r e g r e s i l o g a r i t m a n a t u r a . J i b d a l a m b e n t u k m o d e l k e d u a t e r l i h a t p e r b a i k a n n i l a i - n i l a i u j i s t a t i s t i k a , m a ci m o d e l p e r t a m a a k a n d i s i n g k i r k a n d a n d e m i k i a n p u l a s e b a l i k n y a .

L e b i h l a n j u t a k a n d i l i h a t j u g a s t a b i l i t a s t a n d a d a n n i l a i k o e f i s i e n Va­r i a b e l . U n t u k t u j u a n i n i d i l i h a t h u b u n g a n s e d e r h a n a s a t u p e r s a t u a n t a r a n a-s i n g - m a s i n g v a r i a b e l i n d e p e n d e n t e r h a d a p f e r t i l i t a s . D a l a m h a l i n i a k a n t e r ­l i h a t p u l a a d a n y a v a r i a b e l ( 2 ) y a n g d o m i n a n , s e h i n g g a j i k a i n i a d a , a k a n h r-d a p a t v a r i a b e l y a n g b e r p e n g a m h s e c a r a t u n g g a l a k a n t e t a p i t i d a k c u k u p tx r a r t i s e c a r a b e r s a m a - s a m a .

O l e h k a r e n a d a t a y a n g d i g u n a k a n a d a l a h d a t a - s i l a n g , m a k a s a l a h sa u penyakit y a n g m u n g k i n m u n c u l a d a n y a h e t e r o s k e d a s i t a s . B e n t u k l o g a r i t n a m e m p u n y a i t u j u a n u n t u k m e l i h a t c i r i - c i r i t e r s e b u t . A k a n t e t a p i j i k a m o d e l t i d a k m e n u n j u k k a n c i r i - c i r i i t u , m a k a a s u m s i d a s a r h o m o s k e d a s t i s t a s ma4h d a p a t d i p e n u b i o l e h m o d e l .

D a r i a w a l . m a k a l a h i n i t e l a h d a p a t d i d u g a b a h w a b e b e r a p a v a r i a b t l i n d e p e n d e n m e m p u n y a i h u b u n g a n g a n d a . H a l i n i m e r u p a k a n k e s u l i t a n u i -t u k m e m a s u k k a n l e b i h b a n y a k v a r i a b e l k e d a l a m m o d e l . D u g a a n p e r t a n a a k a n t e r j a d i h u b u n g a n t e r s e b u t a n t a r a h a r a p a n h i d u p d e n g a n p e n d a p a t a n p e r k a p i t a . N a i k n y a p e n d a p a t a n p e r k a p i t a d i p e r k i r a k a n m e m p u n y a i h u b u n g a n y a n g e r a t d e n g a n t i n g k a t k e s e h a t a n , d a n y a n g t e r a k h i r i n i a k a n m e m p u n y u h u b u n g a n y a n g r e l a t i f t i n g g i d e n g a n h a r a p a n h i d u p p e n d u d u k .

P a d a n e g e r i - n e g e r i a g r a r i s , s u d a h j e l a s , p e n d a p a t a n s e b a g i a n p e n d u d u k b e r a s a l d a r i s e k t o r p e r t a n i a n , s e h i n g g a m u n g k i n p u l a p e n d a p a t a n p e r k a p i t a m e m p i H i y a i h u b u n g a n g a n d a d e n g a n t e n a g a k e r j a d a l a m s e k t o r p e r t a n i a i D e m i k i a n j u g a a n t a r a p e n d a p a t a n d a n p r o p o r s i p e n d u d u k 1 0 t a h u n k e a t s s y a n g t i d a k p e m a h s e k o l a h d a n t i d a k t a m a t S e k o l a h D a s a r .

D a l a m m e n g a n a l i s a v a r i a b e l - v a r i a b e l t a d i s e d a p a t m u n g k i n d i h i n d a r k a i u n t u k m e n y i n g k i r k a n v a r i a b e l - v a r i a b e l t e r s e b u t . A k a n d i t e l i t i k o m b i n a i i y a n g l e b i h b a i k m e m p e n g a r u h i f e r t i l i t a s .

H a s i l p e n a k s i r a n t a h a p p e r t a m a h a n y a s a t u v a r i a b e l y a n g m e m p u n y t i h u b u n g a n y a n g b e r a r t i ( p < 5 % ) b a i k d a l a m b e n t u k l o g a r i t m a m a u p u n b e n t u c r e g r e s i b i a s a . N a m u n d e m i k i a n b e n t u k l o g a r i t m a t i d a k m e m p e r b a i k i k e b e r ­a r t i a n h u b u n g a n . S u a t u h a l y a n g m e n g e s a n k a n a d a l a h b a h w a j u m l a h p e n d u -d u k t e l a h k a w i n m e m p e r l i h a t k a n h u b u n g a n y a n g n e g a t i f t e r h a d a p f e r t i l i t a s . D u a h a l m u n g k i n d a p a t t e r j a d i . P e r t a m a m o d e l t i d a k s e s u a i a t a u m e m a n g b e ­n a r . T e t a p i m u n g k i n j u g a k e l e m a h a n d a l a m d a t a . D a r i d a t a y a n g d i a m a t i , s e c a r a i n d i v i d u p e r P r o p i n s i , m a k a m e m a n g t e r l i h a t u n t u k d a e r a h - d a e r a l i J a w a T e n g a h , J a w a T i m u r , D a e r a h I s t i m e w a Y o g y a k a r t a d a n K a l i m a n t a i S e l a t a n t e r l i h a t p r o p o r s i p e n d u d u k y a n g t e l a h k a w i n r e l a t i f t i n g g i t e t a p f e r t i l i t a s t o t a l r e l a t i f r e n d a h .

D i p u l a u J a w a m e m a n g t e r d a p a t t i n g k a t p e r c e r a i a n y a n g r e l a t i f t i n g g i T e t a p i m u n g k i n b e n a r j u g a s e b a g a i a l a s a n t e n t a n g t i n g g i n y a p r o p o r s i w a n i t i

E K I , Vol. XXVIII. No. 2. June 1980 1 8 S

y a n g k a w i n y a n g tidak m e m p u n y a i k e t u r u n a n . D a l a m h a s i l p e n e l i t i a n n y a S i n g a r i m b u n m e n e m u k a n a n g k a - a n g k a y a n g s a n g a t m e n a r i k d i M o j o l a m a . L e b i h d a r i 1 1 % d a r i m e r e k a b e r c e r a i d a l a m p e r k a w i n a n n y a p e r t a m a , s e d a n g ­k a n 4 0 % d a r i p a d a y a n g b e r c e r a i t e r s e b u t t i d a k p e m a h b e r h u b u n g a n s e x . S e ­l a n j u t n y a 7 5 % d a r i p e r k a w i n a n m e r e k a p e r t a m a t i d a k m e m p u n y a i k e t u r u n a n (39: 76: III). H u b u n g a n n e g a t i f i n i t e r j a d i u n t u k s e m u a i b u y a n g b e r u m u r d a r i k e l o m p o k ( 1 5 - 1 9 ) s a m p a i d e n g a n k e l o m p o k u m u r ( 4 0 - 4 4 ) .

N a m u n d e m i k i a n p e n a k s i r a n t a h a p p e r t a m a i n i b e l u m d a p a t m e m b e r i ­k a n k e s i m p u i a n o l e h k a r e n a t e r j a d i h u b u n g a n g a n d a s e b a g a i m a n a d i d u g a se­m u l a . T e r l i h a t , v a r i a b e l h a r a p a n h i d u p b e r h u b u n g a n a g a k t i n g g i d e n g a n p e n ­d a p a t a n p e r k a p i t a , s e m e n t a r a v a r i a b e l y a n g t e r a k h i r i n i b e r h u b u n g a n g a n d a y a n g t i d a k d a p a t d i a b a i k a n d e n g a n p r o p o r s i j u m l a h t e n a g a k e r j a p a d a s e k t o r p e r t a n i a n . D e m i k i a n j u g a h a l n y a d e n g a n p r o p o r s i p e n d u d u k y a n g p e r n a h k a ­w i n . S e l a n j u t n y a , h u b u n g t f n g a n d a t e r s e b u t t e r j a d i p u l a u n t u k v a r i a b e l p e r t u m b u h a n p e n d a p a t a n p e r k a p i t a d e n g a n p r o p o r s i t e n a g a k e r j a p a d a s e k t o r p e r t a n i a n .

D i s a m p i n g t e r d a p a t n y a h u b u n g a n g a n d a t e r s e b u t , b e l u m d a p a t u n t u k m e n g a t a k a n a p a k a h h u b u n g a n a n t a r a v a r i a b e l i n d e p e n d e n d e n g a n f e r t i l i t a s p o s i t i f a t a u n e g a t i f . W a l a u p u n m i s a l n y a t e l a h t e r h h a t b a h w a h u b u n g a n a n ­t a r a p e n d a p a t a n p e r k a p i t a d e n g a n f e r t i U t a s u n t u k s e t i a p k e l o m p o k u m u r , a d a l a h p o s i t i f , a k a n t e t a p i l e b i h l a n j u t p e r l u d i t e l i t i k e s t a b i l a n h u b u n g a n t e r ­s e b u t .

P e n y e l e s a i a n b e r i k u t i n i t a m p a k m e m b e r i k a n h a s i l y a n g l e b i h b a i k . O l e h k a r e n a p a d a t a h a p p e r t a m a p e n g a r u h m a s i n g - m a s i n g v a r i a b e l t e r h a d a p f e r t i l i t a s s a n g a t l e m a h , m a k a d i g u n a k a n f e r t i h t a s k e l o m p o k F 1 5 , F 2 5 , F 3 5 d a n F O I d a l a m b e n t u k r e g r e s i l i n i e r b i a s a . B e n t u k l o g a r i t m a t i d a k d i p a k a i l a g i H a s i l - h a s i l t a k s i r a n i n i d a p a t d i l i h a t p a d a t a b e l 2 d a n 3 .

1 9 0 E K I , Vol. XXVIII, No. 2, June 1980

Table 2

Koefisien Regtesi FertiUtas I Indonesia 1971

Variabel intersep Variabel Independen

SEE F dependen intersep

K A I HA I GO I T A I PE I R* 1%)

SEE

1. F 15 142,82 -2,796 (-3,702)

0,495 (0,603)

0,001 (0,455)

0,009 (0,067)

0,230 (0,651)

56,44 8,82 4,41

2. F25 610,04 -5,070 (-2,094)

-1,552 (-0,590)

-0,001 (-0,339)

0,283 (0,629)

-0,305 (-0,268) 33,41 28,26 1.17

3. F35 1038,70 -9,206 (-2,447)

-1,114 (-0,276)

-0,007 (-0,276)

0,739 (+1,208)

-1,623 (-0,949) 53,35 43,37 3,89

4. F O I 1191,35 -14,098 (-3,647)

-2,074 (-0,494)

-0,013 (-2,134)

1,019 ( 1,418)

-0,121 (-0,067) 62,49 45,11 5,68

Tabel 3

Koefisien Regresi FertiUtas II IndonesU 1971

Variabel intersep Variabel Independen

dependen intersep

K A I P 7 0 G O I T A I P E I R* SEE F

F 15 127,09 -2,465 (-2,968)

0,0005 (0,972)

-0,0006 (-0,315)

0,023 (0,167)

0,176 ( 0,564) 62,50 8,43 4,44

F 25 524,39 -2,465 (-2,228)

0,002 (0,883)

0,006 (-1,020)

0,2844 (0,440)

0,036 (1,035) 35,03 27,91 1,83

F 35 1002,10 -45,987 (-2,986)

0,013 (0,478)

-0,12 (-1,230)

0,598 (0,935)

-1,516 (-0,937) 56,03 43,40 3,40

F O I 1072,76 -14,162 (-3,597)

0,003 (0,115)

-0,015 (-1,464)

0,963 (1,344)

0,247 (0,147) 61,98 45,42 5,54

f j . r D i s i n i t i d a k j u g a a d a h u b u n g a n y a n g b e r a r t i , k e c u a l i j u m l a h p e n d u d u k > a u g p e m a h k a w i n d e n g a n t a n d a n e g a t i f , u n t u k s e m u a f e r t i l i t a s k e l o m p o k u n i r y a n g d i t e l i t i . T e t a p i b i l a d i b a n d i n g k a n h a s i l p e n a k s i r a n p a d a T a b e l 2 d i n 3 t e r d a p a t k e s t a b i l a n d a l a m h a l t a n d a h u b u n g a n k e c u a l i u n t u k p e n d i d i l t a n . T a b e l 2 d e n g a n m e m a k a i t i n g k a t p e r t u m b u h a n ( G O I ) , s e d a n g k a n p a d a T a -b e l 3 , H A I d i g a n t i d e n g a n P 7 0 .

S e l e k s i l e b i h l a n j u t , d e n g a n m e n g g u n a k a n t o t a l f e r t i l i t a s sa ja d a n k j o i h -b i n a s i b e b e r a p a v a r i a b e l i n d e p e n d e n . P a d a T a b e l 4 , t e r d a p a t d u a b u a h m o d e l y a n g a g a k b a i k , y a k n i p e r s a m a a n p e r t a m a d a n k e d u a . T e r l i h a t p u l a d i l a m b e n t u k l o g a r i t m a h u b u n g a n - h u b u n g a n i t u l e b i h m e m b u r u k . P a d a p e r s a n a i n p e r t a m a , t e r d a p a t h u b u n g a n y a n g b e r a r t i ( p < 5 % ) a n t a r a p r o p o r s i j u m l a h p e n d u d u k y a n g p e r n a h k a w i n d a n t i n g k a t p e r t u m b u h a n t e r h a d a p f e r t i l t i i s . H u b u n g a n t i n g k a t p e r t u m b u h a n d e n g a n f e r t i l i t a s t o t a l a d a l a h p o s i t i f , s e d i r g -k a n p r o p o r s i p e n d u d u k y a n g t e l a h k a w i n a d a l a h n e g a t i f . H u b u n g a n der g i n j u m l a h a n g k a t a n k e r j a d a n p e n d i d i k a n , y a k n i T A I d a n P E I t i d a k b e r a r t i , w a l a u p u n m a s i n g - m a s i n g h u b u n g a n t e r s e b u t a d a l a h p o s i t i f d a n n e g a t i f .

P a d a p e r s a m a a n k e d u a , K A l d a n P 7 0 m e m p u n y a i h u b u n g a n y a n g b t r -a r t i t e r h a d a p f e r t i l i t a s t o t a l . U n t u k m e n e l i t i h u b u n g a n masing-masin§ v a ­r i a b e l t e r h a d a p f e r t i l i t a s , m a k a d i t a k s i r r e g r e s i s e d e r h a n a , y a n g h a s i l n y a t p r -c a n t u m p a d a t a b e l 5 . H u b u n g a n s e d e r h a n a i n i k e m b a U m e n u n j u k k a n t d a k a d a t e r d a p a t h u b u n g a n y a n g b e r a r t i , k e c u a l i K A I . B a i k K A I m a u p u n PEI m e m p u n y a i h u b u n g a n y a n g n e g a t i f t e r h a d a p f e r t i l i t a s t o t a l , s e m e n t a r a i j u , H A I , P 7 0 d a n T A I m e m p u n y a i h u b u n g a n y a n g p o s i t i f . *

S e t e l a h d i t e l i t i p e r a n a n K A I d a l a m s e t i a p m o d e l s a n g a t d o m i n a n . Y f -r i a b e l i n i m e n d o m i n i r h a m p i r s e m u a v a r i a b e l y a n g d i a m a t i . H a l t e r s e b u ; da ­p a t t e r c e r m i n d a l a m s t a b i l i t a s t a n d a h u b u n g a n a n t a r a v a r i a b e l i n d e p e i i r ^ e n d e n g a n f e r t i l i t a s t o t a l . T a n d a h u b u n g a n y a n g s t a b i l t e r l i h a t d a r i v a r i a b e l T A I , P E I d a n K A I , t e t a p i d u a b u a h v a r i a b e l y a n g p e r t a m a t i d a k b e r a r t i , s e d a n ; k a n y a n g t e r a k h i r m a s i h d i c u r i g a i , m a s i h m e m e r l u k a n p e n e l i t i a n l e b i h l a i j j t .

* Bila dibandingkan dengan hasil penelitian di Mojolama dan Maguwohaijo, nia|ca{ pe­ngaruh pendidikan dan pendapatan adalah cocok dengan studi ini.

E K I , Vol. XXVIII, No. 2, June 1980 \ 9 3

Tabel 4

Koefisien Regresi FatiUtas Indonesia Model III 1971

Variabel intersep V a r i a b e l Independe

dependen intersep K A I HA I P 70 G O I TA I PE I R(%) S F

F O I 1191,35 -14,0977 (-3,6471)

-2,0738 (-0,4940)

-0,0131 (-2,1335)

1,0189 (1,4183)

-0,1205 (-0,067) 62,49 2035,16 5,67

F O I 1052,05 -13,0995 (-3,2826)

-0,0003 (-1,7630)

0,8640 (1,1745)

-0,0801 (-0,0465) 57,19 2193,65 6,02

LNFOI*) 11,88 -1,2166 (-3,3880)

-0,3540 (-0,8613)

-0,0265 (-1,1535)

0.0349 (0,8130)

0,0842 (0,3223) 54,19 0,01 4,02

LNFO I*) -1,1090 (-3,1253)

0,0409 (0,9600)

0,0673 (0,2771) 47,54 0,10 5,74

Catalan : Untuk persamaan 2 dan 3 Variabel independen juga di LN-kan. Angka dalam kurung adalah nilai statistik t.

~ Tabel 5

Koefisien Regresi Sederhana Fertilitas Indonesia 1971 : Model IV

TVo. Variabel . ^ ir j- • nX/on o Intersep Koefisien R (%} S Urut Independen * ^ ' '

K A I 42,33 21,75

HAI 314 46 *'̂ '̂'3 4 49 ^^^•^^ (1,0393) ^'^^ 57,71 1,08

P70 5,0,24 , ; ; « ; , , « • " 55,72 2,83

G O I 544,00 + " 58,91 0,11

T A I ' ' ' ' ' ' (Zlll) '''' 58,53 0,41

P E I ( i Z l ) '''''

0,79

Statistik t dengan p = 5% Df = 23 adalah 1,708 dan F = 3.38; Angka dalam kurung adalah nilai t.n. = 25

Kesimpuian

S e b a g a i m a n a s t u d i - s t u d i y a n g p e m a h d i l a k u k a n t e r h a d a p h u b u n g a n f e r t i l t< s d e n g a n b e r b a g a i v a r i a b e l s o s i o - e k o n o m i m a k a t a m p a k n y a d a l a m m a k t l a t i i n i p u n b e l u m d a p a t d i s i m p u l k a n s e c a r a t e g a s a p a k a h h u b u n g a n - h u b u n i t u p o s i t i f a t a u n e g a t i f y a n g b e r a r t i . H a l i n i m a s i h m e m e r l u k a n p e n e U t i a p e n e l i t i a n l e b i h l a n j u t . D i s a m p i n g i t u t e r s e d i a n y a d a t a r a n g k a i a n w a j i t h ( t i m e - s e r i e s ) , s a n g a t l a h m e m b a n t u u n t u k p e n g u j i a n - p e n g u j i a n t e r h a d a p b u n g a n i t u .

A k a n t e t a p i s u a t u h a l k i r a n y a p e r l u d i b e r i c a t a t a n p e n t i n g . B e l u m t e o r i y a n g m a p a n u n t u k m e n g a n a l i s a h u b u n g a n - h u b u n g a n a n t a r a v a r i a l e v a r i a b e l i t u t e r h a d a p f e r t i l i t a s . C a t a t a n l a i n n y a a d a l a h k e c o c o k a n m o d e l s e n d i r i . B e b e r a p a p e n e l i t i a n y a n g m e n g g u n a k a n m o d e l a n a l i s a - j a l u r s e b e t j a i ' n y a a k a n m e m b a n t u p u l a . G u e s t (14: 74), M u e l l e r d a n C o h n (34: 77) A r n e y (2: 77) t e l a h m e n c o b a m e n g g u n a k a n b e n t u k a n a l i s a i n i t e r h a d a p t i l i t a s . D e m i k i a n p u l a , H o l s i n g e r d a n K a s a r d a (19: 76), m e n y a r a n k a n p e l n j -g u n a a n m o d e l i n i . D i a b e r p e n d a p a t p e n g a m h u r b a n i s a s i , p e n d i d i k a n c a i I n d u s t r i a l i s a s i a d a l a h t i d a k l a n g s u n g s e d a n g k a n u m u r p a d a s a a t k a w i n t a n

r a n m -t u

t m -

i d i e!-i t i a i -

c a r ! e i -

E K I , Vol. XXVIII, No. 2, June 1980 1 9 5

p e n g e t a h u a n d a n p r a k t e k t e n t a n g k o n t r a s e p s i a d a l a h b e r p e n g a r u h l a n g s u n g t e r h a d a p f e r t i l i t a s .

B a g a i m a n a p u n k e l e m a h a n y a n g d i t e i n u i d a l a m s t u d i s i n g k a t i n i , u n t u k s e m e n t a r a d a p a t j u g a d i s i m p u l k a n b a h w a , m o d e l y a n g a g a k b a i k a d a l a h p e r -

1 s a m a a n 1 d a n 2 p a d a T a b e l 4 . B i l a m a s i h h a r u s d i p i l i h s a t u d a r i d u a m o d e l i n i , m a k a y a n g t e r b a i k d a l a m h a l i n i a d a l a h p e r s a m a a n p e r t a m a . T e t a p i m a s i h t e r g a n t u n g k e p a d a : k e i n g i n a n . J i k a t u j u a n n y a u n t u k m e l i h a t p e n g a r u h p e n ­d a p a t a n p e r k a p i t a t e n t u l a h m o d e l k e d u a , o l e h k a r e n a p a d a m o d e l p e r t a m a v a r i a b e l t e r s e b u t d i g a n f i d e n g a n t i n g k a t p e r t u m b u h a n .

U n t u k m e l i h a t r e s p o n a n t a r a v a r i a b e l - v a r i a b e l t e r s e b u t t e r h a d a p f e r t i ­l i t a s t o t a l , d i b a w a h i n i d i s a j i k a n a n g k a - a n g k a e l a s t i s i t a s p a d a t i t i k r a t a - r a t a , y a n g b e r a s a l d a r i p e r s a m a a n 1 d a n 2 .

T a b c i l 6

E l a s t i s i t a s B e b e r a p V a r i a b e l T e r h a d a p F e r t i l i t a s I n d o n e s i a 1 9 7 1

Variabel dari

persamaan 1 dari

persamaan 2

1 . K A I - 1 , 1 5 - 1 , 0 6 2 . H A I - 0 , 1 5 3 . P 7 0 - 0 , 0 3 4 . G O I - 0 , 0 3 5 . T A I 0 , 1 0 0 , 1 0 6 . P E I 0 , 0 5 0 , 0 3

A k h i r n y a , s e b a g a i p e r b a n d i n g a n a n t a r a d u g a a n t e r h a d a p t a n d a d a n k e ­b e r a r t i a n h u b u n g a n a n t a r a v a r i a b e l - v a r i a b e l t e r s e b u t t e r h a d a p f e r t i l i t a s ada ­l a h s e b a g a i v e r i k u t :

1 9 6 E K I , Vol. XXVIII, No. 2 , June 1980

T a b e l 7 T a n d a d a n K e b e r a t a n H u b u n g a n a n t a r a V a r i a b e l - v a r i a b e l

t e r h a d a p F e r t i l i t a s

Variabel Tanda dugaan Tanda taksiran Berarti/

(hipotesa) (nyata) Tidak

1 . K A l + - b e r a r t i 2 . H A I - - t i d a k 3 . P 7 0 + - b e r a r t i 4 . G O I + - b e r a r t i 5 . T A I + + t i d a k 6 . P E I + - t i d a k

S u m b e r : p e r s a m a a n 1 d a n 2 p a d a t a b e l 4 .

D a f t a r P u s t a k a

1 . A d e l m a n , I r m a , A n E c o n o m e t r i c A n a l y s i s o f P o p u l a t i o n G r o American Economic Review, V o l u m e L I I l , N o . 3 h a l a m a n 3 3 3 9 .

2 . A r n e y , W i l l a m R a y , S o c i o e c o n o m i c C h a n g e a n d F e r t i l i t y , Sociological Methods and Research, V o l u m e V I , N o . 1 1 9 7 7 , h a l a m a n " 9 0 .

3 . B a r c l a y , G e o r g e W . , Techniques of Population Analysis, J o h n W i l S o n : 1 9 5 8 .

4 . B h a t t a c h a r y y a , A m i t K . , R o l e o f R u r a l - U r b a n I n c o m e I n e q u a l i j t y l i n F e r t i l i t y R e d u c t i o n s : C a s e o f T u r k e y , T a i w a n , a n d M a r r q c o , d i t e r b i t k a n k e m b a l i d a r i : Economic Development and Cu ttkral Change V o l . 2 6 , N o . 1 , T h e U n i v e r s i t y o f C h i c a g o , 1 9 7 7 , h a l ^ i j i a n 1 1 7 - 1 3 8 .

5 . B o n g a a r t , J o h n , A F r a m e w o r k f o r A n a l y z i n g t h e P r o x i m a t e D e l e i j m i -n a n t s o f F e r t i l i t y , Population and Development Review, Vcpme 4 , N o . 1 , 1 9 7 8 , h a l a m a n 4 0 5 - 4 2 0 .

6 . C a i l d w e l l , J . C . , The Economic Rationality of High Fertility, A n i r v ^ s t i -g a t i o n i l l u s t r a t e d w i t h N i g e r i a n S u r v e y D a t a , m i m e o , L e m b a g a K e p e n d u d u k a n U n i v e r s i t a s G a d j a h M a d a .

7 . D a r a b i , K a t h e r i n e F . , E d u c a t i o n a n d F e r t i l i t y i n I r a n , C o m u i u n i t y D e v e l o p m e n t , V o l u m e 1 1 , n o . 2 , 1 9 6 6 , h a l a m a n 1 4 1 - 1 4 8 .

8 . D e m e n y , P a u l , On The Economic Theory of Fertility, m i m e o , L e n i r a g a K e p e n d u d u k a n U n i v e r s i t a s G a d j a h M a d a .

E K I , Vol. XXVIII, No. 2, June 1980 1 9 7

9 . D r a k a t o s , C o n s t a n t i n e G . , T h e D e t e r m i n a n t s o f B i r t h r a t e i n D e v e l o p i n g C o u n t r i e s A n E c o n o m e t r i c S t u d y o f G r e e c e , Economic Deve­lopment and Cultural Change, V o l u m e 1 7 , N o . 4 , 1 9 6 9 , h a l a m a n 5 9 6 - 6 0 3 .

1 0 . E a s t e r U n , R i c h a r d A . , O n T h e R e l a t i o n o f E c o n o m i c F a c t o r s t o R e c e n t a n d P r o j e c t e d F e r t i l i t y C h a n g e s , Demography, V o l u m e 3 N o . 1 , 1 9 6 6 , h a l a m a n 1 3 1 - 1 5 3 .

1 1 . E k a n e m , I t a , I . , A F u r t h e r N o t e O n T h e R e l a t i o n B e t w e e n E c o n o m i c D e v e l o p m e n t a n d F e r t i h t y , Demography, V o l u m e 9 , N o . 3 , 1 9 7 2 , h a l a m a n 3 8 3 - 3 9 6 .

1 2 . F r e e d m a n , D e b o r a h S . , Economic Data For Fertility Analysis, W o r l d F e r t i l i t y S u r v e y , 1 9 7 4 .

1 3 . F r e e d m a n , D e b o r a h , S . , C o n s u m p t i o n o f M o d e r n G o o d s a n d S e r v i c e s a n d I t s R e l a t i o n t o F e r t i l i t y : A S t u d y i n T a i w a n , The Journal of Development Studies, V o l u m e 1 2 , N o . 1 , 1 9 7 5 , h a l a m a n 9 5 -1 1 7 .

1 4 . G u e s t , A v e r y M . , T h e R e l a t i o n s h i p o f T h e C r u d e B i r t h R a t e a n d I t s C o m p o n e n t s t o S o c i a l a n d E c o n o m i c D e v e l o p m e n t , Demography, V o l u m e 1 1 , N o . 3 , 1 9 7 4 .

1 5 . H a g e n , E v e r e t t E . , P o p u l a t i o n a n d E c o n o m i c G r o w t h , v l m e r i c a / i Eco­nomic Review, V o l u m e 4 9 , N o . 3 , 1 9 5 9 , h a l a m a n 3 1 0 - 3 2 7 .

1 6 . H e e r , D a v i d M . , d a n E l s a S . T u r n e r , A r e a l D i f f e r e n c e s i n L a t i n A m e r i ­c a n F e r t i h t y , Population studies. V o l u m e X V I I I , 1 9 6 4 / 1 9 6 5 , h a l a m a n 2 7 9 - 2 9 2 .

1 7 . H e e r , D a v i d , M . , Economic Development and Fertility, D e m o g r a p h y , V o l u m e I I I , N o . 1 , 1 9 6 6 .

1 8 . H i c k s , W . W h i n e y , E c o n o m i c D e v e l o p m e n t a n d F e r t i l i t y C h a n g e i n M e x i c o , 1 9 5 0 - 1 9 7 0 , Demography, V o l u m e 1 1 , N o . 3 , 1 9 7 4 , h a l a m a n 4 0 7 - 4 2 1 .

1 9 . H o l s i n g e r , D o n a l d B . , Education and Human Fertility, d a l a m P o p u l a ­t i o n a n d D e v e l o p m e n t , R i d k e r ( e d . ) J o h n H o p k i n s U n i v e r s i t y 1 9 7 6 .

2 0 . H u l l , T e r e n c e H . d a n V a l e r i e J . H u l l , 7 7 i e Relation of Economic Class and Fertility, P o p u l a t i o n I n s t i t u t e G a d j a h M a d a U n i v e r s i t y , Y o g y a k a r t a , 1 9 7 6 .

2 1 . J a y m e , B r i g i d a L . , F a m i l y R o l e s a n d F e r t i h t y P a t t e r n s o f t w o G e n e r a ­t i o n s o f U r b a n u p p e r c l a s s F i l i p i n a w i v e s a n d m o t h e r s , S E A P R A P R e s e a r c h R e p o r t , M a n i l a , 1 9 7 6 .

2 2 . J e a n n e , C a l m s , e t a l . T h e V a h d i t y o f F a m i l y P l a n n i n g S t a t i s t i c s , Bulle­tin of Indonesian Economic Studies, V o l u m e X I I , N o . 3 , 1 9 7 6 , h a l a m a n 9 5 - 9 9 .

2 3 . J a n o w i t z , B a r b a r a S . , A n E m p e r i c a l S t u d y o f T h e E f f e c t s o f S o c i o ­e c o n o m i c D e v e l o p m e n t o n F e r t i l i t y R a t e s , Demography, V o l u m e 8 , N o . 3 , 1 9 7 1 , h a l a m a n 3 1 9 - 3 3 0 .

198 E K I , Vol. XXVIII, No. 2, June 1980

It

2 4 . J o n e s , G . W . , Population Growth, Empty Land, and Economic Dei e-lopment in Indonesia, The Philippines and Malaysia, K a j i a n E k > n o m i M a l a y s i a , J u n i 1 9 6 8 .

2 5 . J o n e s , G a v i n W . , Akibat-akibat Ekonomi karena Penurunan Tingkat Fertilitas di Negara-negara Sedang Berkembang, L e m b a g a D e m o -g r a f t , F a k u l t a s E k o n o m i U n i v e r s i t a s I n d o n e s i a , J a k a r t a , 1 9 7

2 6 . K a s a r d a , J o h n D . , E c o n o m i c S t r u c t u r e a n d F e r t i l i t y : A C o m p a r a t i ) v e A n a l y s i s , Demography, V o l u m e 8 , N o . 3 , 1 9 7 1 , h a l a m a n 3 0 7 3 1 7 .

2 7 . L e e J a y C h o , Causes and Consequences of Excessive Population Growth, k e r t a s k e r j a y a n g d i s a m p a i k a n p a d a A s i a P a c i f i c C d n f r e n c e o n P o p u l a t i o n a n d F a m i l y P l a n n i n g T e a c h i n g i n S c h q o ! o f t h e H e a l t h P r o f e s s i o n , 1 9 7 3 .

2 8 . L e e J a y C h o , e t a l . , Perkiraan Angka Kelahiran dan Kematian dllndo nesla, S e n s u s P e n d u d u k 1 9 7 1 , B i r o P u s a t S t a t i s t i k , J a k a r t a , 1 9 ; 6

2 9 . L e e t , D o n R . , I n t e r r e l a t i o n o f P o p u l a t i o n D e n s i t y , U r b a n i z a t i o n , L i l l e -r a c y , a n d Fertiiity, Exploration in Economic History, 1 4 , 1 9 ' h a l a m a n 3 8 8 - 4 0 1 .

3 0 . L e i b e n s t e i n , H a r v e y , Economic Backwardness and Economic Crow S c i e n c e E d i t i o n s , J o h n W i l e y & S o n , N e w Y o r k : 1 9 6 3 .

3 1 . L e v i n e , A . L . , Economic Science and Population Theory, Populati Studies, A Q u a r t e l y J o u r n a l o f D e m o g r a p h y N o . 1 9 , 1 9 6 5 / 1 9 ^ 6 h a l a m a n 1 3 4 - 1 5 4 .

3 2 . M c D o n a l d , P e t e r F . , e t a l . . Levels and Trends In Fertility and Chlldhohi Mortality In Indonesia, M o n o g r a p N o . 1 , L e m b a g a D e m o g r j a f i F a k u l t a s E k o n o m i U n i v e r s i t a s I n d o n e s i a 1 9 7 6 .

3 3 . M c N i c o l l d a n S i G d e M a m a s / H a n s D a e n g d a n L B . M a n t r a , Keaddan Demografi Dl Indonesia, L e m b a g a K e p e n d u d u k a n U n i v e r s i ; a i G a d j a h M a d a , Y o g y a k a r t a d a n B i r o P u s a t S t a t i s t i k , J a k a r t a , 1 9 ' ' 6 .

3 4 . M u e l l e r , E v a , d a n R i c h a r d C o h n , T h e R e l a t i o n o f I n c o m e t o F e r t i l t y Decision i n T a i w a n , E c o n o m i c Development and Cultural Chai g t Volurhe 25, N o . 2 , 1 9 7 7 , h a l a m a n 3 2 5 - 3 4 7 .

3 5 . P a l m o r e , J a m e s A . , Pengukuran Fertilitas dan Pertambahan Alamiih, L e m b a g a K e p e n d u d u k a n U n i v e r s i t a s G a d j a h M a d a , Y o g y a k a i t s , 1 9 7 7 .

3 6 . R o s e n , B e r n a r d C d a n S i m m o n s , I n d u s t r i z a t i o n , F a m i l y a n d F e r t i l i A S t r u c t u r a l - P s y c h o l o g i c a l A n a l y s i s o f T h e B r a z i l i a n c a se , Z ) e / | i c | -graphy. V o l u m e 8 , N o . 5 , 1 9 7 1 , h a l a m a n 4 9 - 6 9 .

3 7 . R u p r e c h , T h e o d o r e K . , d a n C a r l W a h r e n , 7 7 i e Impact of Populat^oji Growth on National Economic Development, Development gest. V o l u m e X , N o . 1 . 1 9 7 2 , h a l a m a n 1 8 - 2 2 .

3 8 . S i n g a r i m b u n , M a s r i , F e r t i l i t y a n d F a m i l y P l a n n i n g i n M o j o l a m a , p u l a t i o n I n s t i t u t e , G a d j a h M a d a U n i v e r s i t y , 1 9 7 6 .

3 9 . S m a r t , J o h n K a r e f a , H e a l t h a n d W e l f a r e S e r v i c e i n D e v e l o p m e n t Pljar n i n g . D e v e l o p m e n t D i g e s t , V o l u m e I V , N o . 2 , 1 9 6 6 , h a l a m a n | -7 .

E K I , Vol. XXVIII, No. 2, June 1980 9 9

4 0 . S u h a r t o , S a m , T h e e f f e c t o f h o u s e h o l d s o c i o - e c o n o m i c s t a t u s o n f e r t i ­l i t y a n d c h i l d m o r t a l i t y l e v e l s , U n i t e d S t a t e s A g e n c y f o r I n t e r n a ­t i o n a l D e v e l o p m e n t / N a t i o n a l F a m i l y P l a n n i n g C o o r d i n a t i n g B o a r d , 1 9 7 5 .

4 1 . , Beberapa Keuntungan Sosial Ekonomis Karena Reaksi Ferti­litas, R i n g k a s a n , L e m b a g a D e m o g r a f i , F a k u l t a s E k o n o m i , U n i ­v e r s i t a s I n d o n e s i a , 1 9 / 3 .

4 2 . , Rencana Pembangunan Lima Tahun Kedua, 1 9 7 4 / 1 9 7 5 -1 9 7 8 / 1 0 7 9 , V o l u m e I I I , R e p u b l i k I n d o n e s i a .

4 3 . , R a n c a n g a n R e n c a n a P e m b a n g u n a n L i m a T a h u n K e d u a , 1 9 7 9 / 1 9 8 0 - 1 9 8 3 / 1 9 8 4 , V o l u m e H I .

4 4 . , S e n s u s P e n d u d u k 1 9 7 1 , S e r i D , B i r o P u s a t S t a t i s t i k , J a k a r t a , 1 9 7 5 .

4 5 . , S e n s u s P e n d u d u k 1 9 7 1 , S e r i E , B i r o P u s a t S t a t i s t i k , 1 9 7 3 . 4 6 . , Perhifungan Pendapatan Regional di Indonesia, S e b u a h L a p o r ­

a n P e n e l i t i a n u n t u k D e p a r t e m e n D a l a m N e g e r i , K e l o m p o k P e n ­d a p a t a n R e g i o n a l I n d o n e s i a , J a k a r t a , 1 9 7 8 .

2 0 0 E K I , Vol. XXVIII, No. 2, June 1980