Global Yield Gap Atlas (GYGA) www.yieldgap.org

How can ‘Yield gap analysis’ be useful Critical questions of policy makers and R&D organizations:

Where and how can food production be increased on existing agricultural land? Will it be possible for country/region X to be self-

sufficient in food production by 2030 or 2050? What are the causes of yield gaps and how to

overcome them? How can we better target options for sustainable

intensification?

What is novel about the GYGA approach?

‘top-down’ approach

Gridded weather, soil, and crop data allows full coverage but

has large uncertainty

Simulation unit: grid

?

Too coarse to be locally relevant and difficult to

validate

Targeting a tractable number of locations for

data collection

Simulation unit: location x soil x crop system combination

within a climate zone

Upscaling from location to region or country by a

robust CZ scheme

Soil 2

Soil 3Soil 1

LOCATION A

Full coverage without loosing local relevance

GYGA ‘bottom-up’ approach

Soil 2

Yield gap analysis: protocol

Climate zones

Crop-specific harvested areas

Weather station buffer zones

Soil types and cropping systems

Crop model simulations

Actual yields

Yield gaps

Countries currently in the GYGA website

Completed (27)In progress (19)Likely additions (4)

Summary of GYGA outputs

Interactive website with yield potential, yield gaps, and water productivity for 8 major crops in 27 countries (46 soon)• Open access to data• Transparent, reproducible protocols

Robust spatial framework based on climate zonation First high resolution digital map with functional soil properties

in SSA Novel protocols for propagating weather data, selection of data

sources, and crop modeling ~15 highly cited publications

Yield gaps in 10 countries in SSA

Application: GYGA technology extrapolation domains

• Targeting field research/experimentation• Technology transfer and adoption at scale• Research prioritization for R & D investments• Ex-ante and ex-poste impact assessment• Research on climate change impacts

Claessens et al., in prep.

Application: country food self-sufficiency analyses

Van Ittersum et al., in prep.

Objectives

• Significantly advance scientific capabilities for addressing complex agricultural & food security issues in the context of climate change

• Integrated assessments (bio-physical, socio-economic) and ex ante evaluation of adaptation practices & policies

• Global and regional scale levels

Two-Track Science Approach

Track 1: Model Improvement and IntercomparisonTrack 2: Climate Change Multi-Model Assessment

Regional and Global Scales

Teams, Linkages and Outcomes

Capacity Building and Decision Making

• Regional vulnerability • Adaptation strategies• Trade policy instruments• Technology exchange

Climate Team

Crop Modeling Team

Economics Team

Information Technology

Team

Improvements and Intercomparisons

• Crop models• Agricultural economic models• Scenario construction• Aggregation methodologies

Cross-Cutting Themes

• Uncertainty

• Aggregation and Scaling

• Representative Agricultural Pathways

Assessments• Regional• Global• Crop-specific

Work Groups

• Soils• Water

Resources• Livestock

and Grasslands

• Pests and Diseases

Regional Integrated Assessments

• 4 regional projects in SSA, 4 in SA• Impact assessment of climate change and adaptation• Systems modeling: crops, livestock, climate, economics• Multiple climate and socio-economic scenarios (RAPs)• Stakeholder interactions along research pathway