Post on 30-Sep-2020
Hope in a Time of ApocalypsePeter Newman AO
Professor of Sustainability, Curtin
A series of reflections
and discussions in
St Pauls
Hope in a Time of Apocalypse
1. Pandemics, 2. Famine (climate
change), 3. War (constant
conflict), and 4. Death (of civilization)
The four horsemen of the apocalypse…. From Revelation.Written during the collapse of the Roman Empire
Why is this the worst pandemic since Spanish Flu? 50 million killed….in a year.
• More contagious than flu and more lethal…• No vaccine for at least a year.• No idea about its ecology…- when will it become simply endemic?
‘Women fight over toilet paper during coronavirus panic buying in Australia’ New York Post
https://twitter.com/i/status/1236088663093608448
The hope with the pandemic….
1. We are believing the science…even though it is uncertain due to the need for more statistical data. MEDICAL ADVISORS CLEARLY IN CONTROL; Norman Swan daily podcast.
2. We are taking action alongside the best governments in the world. WE HAVE GOOD PRACTICE AND BAD PRACTICE TO LEARN FROM.
3. We are putting money into the direct health system and into the economy so we can come out of it with a better economy. BUBBLES NEED TO BURST.
4. We are managing the fear and the rumours…. MOSTLY UP TO US…
What should we be doing?
• REDUCE EXPOSURE….’social distance’; don’t travel and don’t touch public furniture;• HYGIENE….hand washing and cleaning any surfaces used regularly; • FLU VAX and PNEUMO VAX… when ready.• AT HOME…supplies for a month; medicines and food;
Ventolin/asthma spray; good food and exercise.
• LOOKING AFTER OTHERS….
If we can do it on the virus why not do this
with the Climate Emergency?
The bushfire wake-up call…..
Ross Garnaut in his 2008 report to Australian Government:
‘….without adequate action, the nation will face a more frequent and intense fire season by 2020.’.
"If you ignore the science when you build a bridge, the bridge falls down."
Global temperature and rainfall to 2080 and 2100
Perth is 60% desal
THE MODELS PREDICTED DRY AREAS WOULD GET DRIER….
The global climate is warming
Eighteen of the last 19 years have been the warmest on record.
Over half Australia had a much hotter year than ever….2018
With massive extremes in rainfall
By 2019
The picture canʼt be displayed.
The picture canʼt be displayed.
It was like a bomb going off….
186 million sq kms burnt, 5,900 buildings lost, 34 people killed, $4.4b cost and 26% of businesses impacted, over 1 million animals died….deep collective trauma Over 300 m tonnes of CO2.
Near Moreein January
2020Near Moree in January 2020
Australia was on the world stage.
But at the same time we were trying to undermine the Paris Agreement….
100 fires in the ArcticScientific American July 30, 2019
• Low sea ice• Record Greenland ice melt• 100 fires in peatland
37, 000 fires in the Amazon Rainforest… 906,000 ha lost in 2019
There is only I in 100,000 chance that this is not caused by human
use of fossil fuels and land clearing….not sun spots, not volcanic activity, not any other
natural system….
Leaving the ‘safe operating space’ 10C band
Its our cities and agriculture that are threatened….
Where does the hope come from?
1. We are believing the science…even though it is uncertain due to the need for more statistical data. SOME MEDIA ARE NOT
2. We are taking action alongside the best governments in the world. WE SIGNED PARIS AND THE SDG’s;
3. We are putting money into a better economy. NOT ENOUGH…. BUSINESS and HOUSEHOLDS LEADING.
4. We are managing the fear and the rumours…. NOT ENOUGH….BUT POSITIVE VISIONS ABOUND.
1. We are believing the science…
Climate Resilient Development
Economic and social development whilst removing
all fossil fuels by 2050
The IPCC agenda: 1.50C and the SDG’s combined
2. We are taking action….
The Paris Agreement astonished everyone….156 nations signed up. Including Australia!
Driven by a coalition of business and NGO’s who knew it was already working….
The world has had 20 years of working out Climate Resilient Development
DECOUPLING economic development from fossil fuels
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Turning point in world history….
GHG going DOWN,
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DECOUPLING in 21st centuryUNEP reports…
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Bhutan
The valleys of Shangri-La
Bhutan’s approach to climate resilient development….
1. Gross National Happiness…Bhutan’s unique approach to social and cultural development
The nine dimensions of Gross National Happiness:• psychological well-being, • health, • time use, • education, • cultural diversity and resilience, • good governance, • community vitality, • ecological diversity and resilience, and • living standards.
2. GHG can be ‘carbon neutral’ in Bhutan due to hydro power….committed to in Paris Agreement
3. GDP. Growing opportunity – to become a middle income country by 2023 – mostly through cities. 12th Five Year Plan (2018-2023)
Big overlaps with GNH
Rapid urban growth….will it overwhelm GNH and GHG?
What about oil?Nations everywhere are starting the journey to:1. Make motor vehicles electric2. Reduce car dependence to make more liveable cities and reduce
GHG, whilst growing GDP.
BHUTAN SOLUTION: 1. Make use of abundant hydropower and electric transport system (not just limited to EVs and E-buses but light rail and freight connection to India)2. Reduce car dependence and make happy traffic…
Petrol and diesel trucked in from India….
The front end is better than the back….
Happy traffic….
CO2 is the principal GHG related to climate change. Black Carbon emitted from diesel vehicles, is alsoa major contributor to climate change. Transport is a major source of GHG emissions in the country
and by 2015 transport emissions of Bhutan were around 290,000 tCO2. Around 60% of GHG emissionsincluding Black Carbon are caused by trucks followed by passenger cars with 1/3rd.
Electric vehicles are coming rapidly….China leads
Can we make a fully electric transport system?
• Bhutan, through external support, has plans to procure 10 electric buses and 30 electric taxis.
• China leads the world in electrifying transport. 20,000 kms HSR, 51 cities with Metros; all electric bus fleets; 250 million e-bikes; India is following closely…
• London committed to all electric buses by 2037.
It is essential that we don’t build our cities around cars – even if electric. Bad for economics and bad for SDG’s
TRACKLESS TRAM
in ZhuZhou
No steel tracksBUT
Optically guided tracks by GPS, LIDAR and
sensors following white line
And perhaps use THE TRACKLESS TRAM…..Electric. 70 kph. 300-500 people capacity 6 LANES equivalent
3. We are putting money into a better economy.
A new economy is emerging and must accelerate over the next 10-15 years…EMBRACE GROWTH IN THE NEW ECONOMY
Regenerative growth not frivolous consumption
Help it become the basis of all policy, not just climate policy…
Then governments will listen to us.
WA is building for the future economy around the Lithium Ion battery….
‘Electric cars: Will Australia’s battery gamble pay off?The country’s lithium miners are at the forefront of a green energy revolution’
Financial Times NOVEMBER 29 2018
Jamie Smyth in Pilgangoora
WA’s Lithium Valley is a hopeful vision…Creating minerals ethically and transparently for the next economy.
Lithium Valley:Building the Case to Establish Western Australia as a Manufacturer of Energy Metals and Power Storage
Solar power (PV) in Perth
30% of Perth homes 1000 MW in 7 years…Largest power station in WA
70% by 2025‘It is inevitable…’ Minister for Energy.
How do we manage the grid?
NO GOVERNMENT PROGRAM….
ENERGY POSITIVE HOMES – Josh’s House
Joshshouse.com.au
All Electric HomeInduction Cooktop & Heat Pump HWS
Electric Vehicle
Solar Generation & Storage
Performance & Payback SOURCE FIGURE UNIT
Energy Produced 10,782 kWh/Yr
Imported from the Grid 638.75 kWh/Yr
Self-Supply 5,403.85 kWh/Yr
Energy Exported 4,739 kWh/Yr
Annual Savings from Self Supply $1,530.76 AUD
Annual Income from Grid Export
$338.13 AUD
Annual Savings from EV $1,665.56 AUD
Total Savings $3,534.45 AUD
Total Investment $31,100.00 AUD
Payback Period 8.8 Years
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Daily Energy Profile of Josh's House Appliance
Electric Vehicle
Heat Pump
RainwaterPump + UV
Lighting
Oven
InductionCooktop
Bore Pump
GreywaterPump
Grid Import
Self-Supply
Grid Export
Use by
Export to to Grid
Electric vehicle
Laughing after 9 years…
MAINSTREAMING ENERGY POSITIVE HOUSING
Stockland & Finlay Homes Mirvac & Terrace Riverview Group & Rawson Homes Parklea & SJD Homes
PROJECT HOMES…
Cost Analysis
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Base payback 5% price increase and feed-in-tariffs elimination5% annual electricity price increase Feed-in-tariff elimination2.5% annual electricity price increase
You’re laughing after 6 years….
What about sharing into a local grid that is managed locally? Like a shared medium density precinct?
3/13/20 67
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Scaling up….. SHARED SOLAR & BATTERIES‘Citizen Utilities’ with social housing….P2P
WGV
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Scaling up….. SHARED SOLAR & BATTERIES – global first‘Citizen Utilities’ with social housing….P2P
WGV- Sold well in downturn
MULTI RESIDENTIAL, social housingSHAC Solar-Battery-Blockchain-EV
Design Credit: Donaldson & Warn Architects / Access Housing
Stormwater Sump Rejuvenation
1000 units…East Village announced July…
Fully integrated village with: • zero carbon buildings, • shared EV with high rate charging, • low water, • low waste, • using blockchain to share the value in
these efficiencies….
Electric transit revolution…
Density Visions…
Biophilic UrbanismSingapore
REGENERATING THE LANDSCAPEOil Mallee – burying carbon and rebuilding the landscape…improves agricultural productivity. GONDWANA LINK…regenerating a whole region
Next….make cities into carbon sinks….and build songlines into and through cities?
4. We are managing the fear and the rumours
Fear is contained by visions of a better future emerging….a kind of faith
In every transition we needed to dream of a more prosperous, equitable and safe future?
more
This Life: Secular Faith and Spiritual Freedom by Martin Hägglund, 2019. ‘ The fight to stop climate change provides a striking example of a situation that requires secular faith…’
.
Bhutan can help everyone see…• A nation can grow in happiness and wealth but not fossil fuels• And that electric mobility with a quality public transport system and
traffic calming can be the way to make traffic happy. • A ‘secular faith’ for our time….
What are some of the new visions about here? • Zero carbon homes, zero carbon communities, zero carbon cities…• Circular economy-based consumption • Shared economy• Biophilic urbanism• RetroSuburbia• Regenerative cities
• Hope in daily life….
Visions for suburbia…Can we get a better vision than the 1950’s?
Spreading the vision of individual householders…
The sharing economy vision
• Sharing Cities Network - People-powered solutions for the common good• 40 cities with sharing network maps
Even regenerating cities and regionsAn Australian vision of what the world can be like…..
This is the task of civil society…NGO’s, universities, media, churches and unions
To set the vision and drive it…business and governments need to have the agenda set by US!
Lighter Footprints
Cities of Diamonds…
While Rome was collapsing a man sat on an island in the Mediterranean and dreamed of two cities:One city was committed only to frivolous consumption and was doomed…The other was a city of diamonds with a Tree of Life and a River of Life…Why diamonds? They represent our work - to create hope.
St Pauls Fremantle, provides refugee services to enable them to settle in.Also provides for Muslims to worship.
Where does hope come from…?
it’s a spiritual issue underlying personal and public life
Cities have a soul…the diamonds of hope are built into a new and more spiritually strong city. This will drive industry and government….
What is the hope that we can give our grandchildren from our moment in time….
NUCLEAR NUCLEAR
RENEWABLES
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2050NOW
Predictions – The Clean Economy Transition