Raj Chetty

Stanford University

Higher Education and Upward Mobility New Lessons from Big Data

Photo Credit: Florida Atlantic University

50

60

70

80

90

100

Pct.

of C

hild

ren E

arn

ing m

ore

than t

heir P

are

nts

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 Child's Year of Birth

The Fading American Dream Percent of Children Earning More than Their Parents, by Year of Birth

Source: Chetty, Grusky, Hell, Hendren, Manduca, Narang 2016

Higher education is widely viewed as a pathway to upward

mobility

– But little systematic data on which colleges contribute the

most to helping children climb the income ladder

Higher Education and Upward Mobility

We show how colleges shape upward mobility by constructing

mobility report cards for every college in America

– Statistics on parents’ incomes and students’ earnings

outcomes at each college

– Use de-identified attendance and income data on 30 million

students from 1999-2013 from Treasury and Dept. of Ed.

Mobility Report Cards

Source: Chetty, Friedman, Saez, Turner, Yagan 2017

Start by examining how access to colleges varies with

parents’ household income

Low-Income Access

0

5

10

15

Perc

ent

of S

tudents

0 20 40 60 80 100

Parent Rank

Parent Income Distribution at Ivy-Plus Colleges

Note: “Ivy Plus” = Ivy League, Chicago, Duke, MIT, Stanford

14.5% of students from top 1%

0

5

10

15

Perc

ent

of S

tudents

0 20 40 60 80 100

Parent Rank

More students from the top 1% than the bottom 50%

13.5% of students from bottom 50%

Parent Income Distribution at Ivy-Plus Colleges

5.0 6.1 9.3

12.8

66.7

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

Perc

ent

of S

tudents

1 2 3 4 5

Parent Income Quintile

Columbia

Parent Income Distributions: Columbia vs. CUNY

5.0 6.1 9.3

12.8

66.7

28.7 26.5

19.0

14.0 11.8

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

Perc

ent

of S

tudents

1 2 3 4 5

Parent Income Quintile

Columbia

CUNY System

Parent Income Distributions: Columbia vs. CUNY

Now turn to students’ earnings outcomes in adulthood

– Measure children’s individual earnings in their mid-30s

– How many students from families in the bottom fifth reach

the top fifth?

Students’ Outcomes

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

1 2 3 4 5

Mobility Report Card for CUNY – Hunter College

Access: Fraction of Parents from the Bottom Fifth = 21%

Pe

rce

nt o

f S

tud

en

ts

Parent Income Quintile

Success Rate: Fraction of Students who Reach the Top Fifth (>$60K) = 36%

Access: Fraction of Parents from the Bottom Fifth (<$25K) = 21%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

1 2 3 4 5

Mobility Report Card for CUNY – Hunter College

Pe

rce

nt o

f S

tud

en

ts

Parent Income Quintile

Mobility Rates

Measure a college’s mobility rate (MR) as the fraction of its

students who come from bottom fifth and end up in top fifth

Mobility rate equals access times success rate:

Mobility Rate = Access x Success Rate

At Hunter College: 7.5% = 21% x 36%

0

20

40

60

80

100

Success R

ate

: P

(Child

in Q

5 | P

ar

in Q

1)

0 20 40 60

Access: Percent of Parents in Bottom Quintile

Access and Success Rates Across Colleges

Hunter

0

20

40

60

80

100

Success R

ate

: P

(Child

in Q

5 | P

ar

in Q

1)

0 20 40 60

Access: Percent of Parents in Bottom Quintile

Access and Success Rates Across Colleges

Staten Island Brooklyn

Kingsborough

John Jay

Queensborough

Bernard Baruch

Medgar

York

City College

Borough of Manhattan

NY City Tech Lehman

Laguardia Bronx Hostos

Hunter

Queens

0

20

40

60

80

100

Success R

ate

: P

(Child

in Q

5 | P

ar

in Q

1)

0 20 40 60

Access: Percent of Parents in Bottom Quintile

Access and Success Rates Across Colleges

Princeton

Columbia

NYU

Rutgers

Mercer County CC

SUNY-Stony Brook

Essex County College Hudson County CC Monroe College

Staten Island Brooklyn

Kingsborough

John Jay

Queensborough

Bernard Baruch

Medgar

York

City College

Borough of Manhattan

NY City Tech Lehman

Laguardia Bronx Hostos

Hunter

Queens

CUNY System: Mobility Rate = 7.2%

Other NYC Colleges: Mobility Rate = 3.5%

Princeton

Columbia

NYU

Rutgers

Mercer County CC

SUNY-Stony Brook

Essex County College Hudson County CC Monroe College

Staten Island

Queens

Brooklyn

Kingsborough

John Jay

Queensborough

Bernard Baruch

Medgar

York

City College

Borough of Manhattan

NY City Tech Lehman

Laguardia Bronx Hostos

0

20

40

60

80

100

Success R

ate

: P

(Child

in Q

5 | P

ar

in Q

1)

0 20 40 60

Access: Percent of Parents in Bottom Quintile

Access and Success Rates Across Colleges

Hunter

CUNY System: Mobility Rate = 7.2%

Other NYC Colleges: Mobility Rate = 3.5%

1.9%

3.1%

8.0%

8.1%

8.3%

8.4%

8.4%

9.7%

9.9%

10.2%

11.7%

12.9%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12%

Avg. College in the U.S.

Columbia

Technical Career Institutes

CUNY-Brooklyn

CUNY-NY City Tech

SUNY-Stony Brook

Pace University

CUNY-John Jay

Cal State-Los Angeles

CUNY-Lehman

CUNY-City

CUNY-Bernard Baruch

Top 10 Colleges in America By Mobility Rate

2.0%

2.1%

2.4%

2.5%

2.6%

2.7%

2.9%

3.1%

3.3%

4.3%

8.3%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8%

Average

OK

AR

SUNY

NM

LA

FL

TX

NJ

CA

CUNY

Mobility Rates for Four-Year State College Systems

1.8%

1.9%

1.9%

1.9%

2.1%

2.1%

2.5%

2.6%

2.6%

2.7%

5.7%

0% 2% 4% 6%

Average

NJ

WY

NM

WV

MS

CA

LA

TX

ND

CUNY

Mobility Rates for Two-Year State College Systems

How have access and mobility rates changed in recent years?

– Are colleges like CUNY continuing to provide ladders to

opportunity?

Changes Over Time

0

10

20

30

Perc

ent

of P

are

nts

in t

he B

ott

om

Quin

tile

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Year When Child was 20

CUNY System SUNY Stony Brook Columbia

Trends in Low-Income Access from 2000-2011

-10

-5

0

Change in P

ct.

of

Stu

dents

fro

m B

ott

om

Quin

tile

(pp)

Sta

ten

Isla

nd

Bro

okly

n

Bro

nx

Hunte

r

Yo

rk

Jo

hn

Ja

y

Kin

gsb

oro

ug

h

Manhattan

Me

dg

ar

Be

rna

rd B

aru

ch

Ho

sto

s

Qu

ee

ns

City T

ech

Qu

ee

nsb

oro

ug

h

Le

hm

an

City

LaG

uard

ia

Trends in Low-Income Access from 2000-2011 by CUNY Campus

How can we preserve or increase access to institutions like

CUNY for children from low-income families?

Why are mobility rates at CUNY so high, and how can this

success be replicated and expanded?

– Is CUNY successful in selecting upwardly mobile students or does

studying at CUNY increase a given child’s chance of success?

Key Questions for Future Work

Download data for every college from the Equality of Opportunity Project

www.equality-of-opportunity.org

50

60

70

80

90

100

Pct.

of C

hild

ren E

arn

ing m

ore

than t

heir P

are

nts

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 Child's Year of Birth

The Fading American Dream Percent of Children Earning More than Their Parents, by Year of Birth

Source: Chetty, Grusky, Hell, Hendren, Manduca, Narang 2016