Harvest Investment Focus 171508 - Amazon S3 · Stocks wavered between gains and losses last week as...

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Allinvestmentsinvolverisk,includinglossofprincipal.Principalvaluesandinvestmentsreturnsareneitherguaranteednorissuedby,guaranteedby,orobligationsofabank,savingsandloan,orcreditunion;andarenotinsuredorguaranteedbytheFDIC,SIPC,NCUSIForanyotheragency.PortionsofthisnewsletterwaspreparedbyWESherman&Co.,LLC.WESherman&Co.,LLCisnotaffiliatedwithProEquitiesorHarvestInvestmentServices,LLC.AdvisoryServicesoffered

throughHarvestInvestmentServices,LLC,aRegisteredInvestmentAdvisor.SecuritiesofferedthroughProEquities,Inc.ARegisteredBroker-DealerandMemberFINRAandSIPC.HarvestFinancialPlanning,LLCandHarvestInvestmentServices,LLCareindependentofProEquities,Inc

MarketFocus:

StockswaveredbetweengainsandlosseslastweekastraderseyedtheprogressoftaxreformanddigestedthelatestratehikebytheFed.TheS&P500gained0.92%ontheweekandisup19.52%yeartodate.

TradingwasquiettostarttheweekMonday,astheS&Pgrindedhighermostlyonmomentumtocloseatanall-timehigh.InvestorsshruggedofftheattemptedterrorattackinaNewYorksubwaystation,andastrongimbalanceofMarketonClosebuyorderssawindexessprintintotheclosetoadd0.32%ontheday.

Stocksralliedtoanothersetofall-timehighsonTuesdaywiththeS&Padding0.15%thankstoareflationrallythatwasinitiatedbyahotter-than-expectedPPIreportandmoreoptimismsurroundingthetaxbill.

WednesdaywasadayofpauseforstocksastheFOMCprovidednosurpriseswhiletheunderwhelmingCPIreporthaltedthereflationmomentumfromTuesdayresultingina0.05%lossontheS&P.

VolatilityedgeduponThursdaydespitegenerallygoodeconomicdataasworriesaboutthetaxbillweighedonsentiment.GlobalFlashPMIdatawasallbetterthanexpected,butSen.Rubio’sannouncementofapotential“no”voteintheafternoonsawstockscomeforsale,andthebenchmarkindexcloseddown0.41%.

TheweaknessonThursdayprovedtobeshort-lived,asstocksroaredbacktohitfreshall-timehighsonFridaythankstoanincreasinglyfavorableoutlookforsuccessfultaxreform.TheS&P500gappedhigherattheopenandcontinuedtochurnhigheroverthecourseoftheday.

EconomicFocus:

PassageofUStaxbillexpectednextweekRepublicanleadersintheUSHouseofRepresentativesandSenatehashedoutacompromisetaxbillthisweek,althoughafewRepublicanSenatorsarestillpushingforadditionalchanges.ThepackageisexpectedtobevotedonintheSenateonTuesdayandintheHouseonWednesdaybeforebeingsignedbyPresidentDonaldTrumponThursday,ifallgoeswellfortheRepublicans.Atthesametime,astop-gapfundingbilltokeepthegovernmentinoperationuntilmid-JanuaryisintheworksandneedstobepassedbyFriday,22Decemberwhenfundingrunsout.ItappearsthatthereisagreementbetweenDemocraticandRepublicanleadersonpassingacontinuingresolutionthatpushesapotentialshutdownintomid-January.

for the week ending December 15th, 2017

Allinvestmentsinvolverisk,includinglossofprincipal.Principalvaluesandinvestmentsreturnsareneitherguaranteednorissuedby,guaranteedby,orobligationsofabank,savingsandloan,orcreditunion;andarenotinsuredorguaranteedbytheFDIC,SIPC,NCUSIForanyotheragency.PortionsofthisnewsletterwaspreparedbyWESherman&Co.,LLC.WESherman&Co.,LLCisnotaffiliatedwithProEquitiesorHarvestInvestmentServices,LLC.AdvisoryServicesoffered

throughHarvestInvestmentServices,LLC,aRegisteredInvestmentAdvisor.SecuritiesofferedthroughProEquities,Inc.ARegisteredBroker-DealerandMemberFINRAandSIPC.HarvestFinancialPlanning,LLCandHarvestInvestmentServices,LLCareindependentofProEquities,Inc

ThisWeekUpcomingEconomicFocus:

Release Date Briefing.comConsensus

BuildingPermits December19th 1280K

MBAMortgageApplications December20th NA

CrudeInventories December20th NA

PhiladelphiaFed December21st 21.0

InitialClaims December21st 236K

PersonalIncome December22nd 0.4%

MichiganSentiment-Final December22nd 97.3

Table1:Briefing.com

EarningsFocus:The3rdQuarter2017earningswithintheS&P500–Ofthe500companiesthathavereportedearningsforthe3rdQuarter2017,72.8%havereportedearningsaboveanalystexpectations.Thisisabovethelong-termaverageof64%andtheaverageoverthepastfourquartersof72%.Furthermore,68.1%ofcompanieshavereportedQ3,2017revenuesabovebothanalystshort-termexpectationsof60%andthelong-termaverageof59%.TheestimatedearningsgrowthratefortheS&P500ofQ3,2017relativetoQ3,2016isexpectedtoincrease8.4%.

Whenyouexaminetheindividualsectors,eightoftheelevensectorsareestimatedtoreportayear-over-yearincreaseinearningsrelativetoQ32016.TheEnergyandInformationTechnologysectorshavethehighestearningsgrowthrateforthequarter,whiletheFinancialsectorhasthelowestanticipatedgrowthcomparedtoQ32016.TheS&P500revenuegrowthrateisestimatedtoincrease5.4%forthequarter.TheEnergysectorisexpectedtohavethehighestestimatedrevenuegrowthratewhiletheUtilitiessectorisexpectedtohavethelowest.Theforwardfour-quarter(4Q17-3Q18)P/EratiooftheS&P500is18.6,inlinewiththefifteen-yearaverage.Thisweek,December18th2017,13oftheS&P500companiesareexpectedtoreportquarterlyearnings.

OtherNews:

US,EUandJapanteamuptocounterChina,othersTheUS,theEUandJapanhaveformedanalliancetofightmarketdistortionscausedbyChina’ssevereexcesscapacity,illegalsubsidiesandintellectualpropertyabuses.ThetreeentitiessaidtheywillworkwithintheWorldTradeOrganizationframeworkandwithothermultilateralgroupstoeliminateunfaircompetitionbyChinaandothercountries.MediareportsindicateJapan,fearfulthattheUSwouldotherwiseactalone,wasthedrivingforceinforgingthecommonstrategy.

ThomsonReuters,FirstTrust,SevensReport&MFS.

Allinvestmentsinvolverisk,includinglossofprincipal.Principalvaluesandinvestmentsreturnsareneitherguaranteednorissuedby,guaranteedby,orobligationsofabank,savingsandloan,orcreditunion;andarenotinsuredorguaranteedbytheFDIC,SIPC,NCUSIForanyotheragency.PortionsofthisnewsletterwaspreparedbyWESherman&Co.,LLC.WESherman&Co.,LLCisnotaffiliatedwithProEquitiesorHarvestInvestmentServices,LLC.AdvisoryServicesoffered

throughHarvestInvestmentServices,LLC,aRegisteredInvestmentAdvisor.SecuritiesofferedthroughProEquities,Inc.ARegisteredBroker-DealerandMemberFINRAandSIPC.HarvestFinancialPlanning,LLCandHarvestInvestmentServices,LLCareindependentofProEquities,Inc

MarketMomentumFocus:OneimportantaspecttotheHarvestFocusisthatitwillprovideyouwithkeyinformationabouthowvarioussectorsandassetclassesaretrendingrelativetooneanotherandalsotothebroadmarket.TheMarketFocuswillhelpyoubetterunderstandthemomentuminvestmentapproachutilizedbytheAlphaSolutionsstrategiesthatweemploytohelpyou“HarvestGainsandLimitLosses”.Itwillalsohelpdemonstrateourrulesbasedinvestmentapproachofwhyspecificpositionswerepurchasedorheldontoandwhyothersweresold.Wehavehighlightedafewofthesignificantchangesfromaweekago.TherewereafewsignificantmovementsintheMajorAssetClassesandSectors,theNASDAQ100movedup8ranking10thandtheTechnologySectormovedup7ranking5th.TheMidCapBlendfell10to13thandtheSmallCapGrowthfell9to18th.

AlphaSolutions13/50ModelUpdate:CurrentHoldings:

Cash 1.0% MoneyMarketMDY 20.0% SPDRS&PMidCap400ETFTrustUnitSer1Standard&PoorsDepositReceiptSPY 20.0% SPDRS&P500ETFTrustTrUnitDIA 20.0% SPDRDowJonesIndustrialAverageETFTrustUnitSer1

QQQ 20.0% PowerSharesQQQTrustUnitSer1IWM 19.0% iSharesTrustRussell2000ETF

Figure2Source:WESherman&Co,LLC

Allinvestmentsinvolverisk,includinglossofprincipal.Principalvaluesandinvestmentsreturnsareneitherguaranteednorissuedby,guaranteedby,orobligationsofabank,savingsandloan,orcreditunion;andarenotinsuredorguaranteedbytheFDIC,SIPC,NCUSIForanyotheragency.PortionsofthisnewsletterwaspreparedbyWESherman&Co.,LLC.WESherman&Co.,LLCisnotaffiliatedwithProEquitiesorHarvestInvestmentServices,LLC.AdvisoryServicesoffered

throughHarvestInvestmentServices,LLC,aRegisteredInvestmentAdvisor.SecuritiesofferedthroughProEquities,Inc.ARegisteredBroker-DealerandMemberFINRAandSIPC.HarvestFinancialPlanning,LLCandHarvestInvestmentServices,LLCareindependentofProEquities,Inc

Figure4Source:WESherman&Co,LLC

TheBigPicture:The“bigpicture”isthemonths-to-yearstimeframe;i.e.,thetimeframeinwhichCyclicalBullsandBearoperate.Belowisasnapshotofthecurrentindicatorstatuseswecloselywatchforbroadmarketdirection:

USBull-BearEquityIndicatorthisweekis82.09;higherthanlastweek‘s80.49.Thisisalongerterm(monthstoyears)indicatorforthemarketdirectionandisusedtoestablishtheequityallocationinmanyofourAlphaSolution’sstrategies.

Figure3Source:WESherman&Co,LLC

Allinvestmentsinvolverisk,includinglossofprincipal.Principalvaluesandinvestmentsreturnsareneitherguaranteednorissuedby,guaranteedby,orobligationsofabank,savingsandloan,orcreditunion;andarenotinsuredorguaranteedbytheFDIC,SIPC,NCUSIForanyotheragency.PortionsofthisnewsletterwaspreparedbyWESherman&Co.,LLC.WESherman&Co.,LLCisnotaffiliatedwithProEquitiesorHarvestInvestmentServices,LLC.AdvisoryServicesoffered

throughHarvestInvestmentServices,LLC,aRegisteredInvestmentAdvisor.SecuritiesofferedthroughProEquities,Inc.ARegisteredBroker-DealerandMemberFINRAandSIPC.HarvestFinancialPlanning,LLCandHarvestInvestmentServices,LLCareindependentofProEquities,Inc

PersonalWealthEnhancerTip:Rememberwhenyouwereakid,thingsweresimple,good,andsecure.Youkeptthingsinabox,butasyougrewolderthenumberofboxesgrewuntilyoucouldnotkeeptrackofeverything.TheQuestionhereisdoyouknowwhereeverythingis,orwhateverythingisworth?Because,ifyoudon’tknowyoushould,andnowyoucanallinoneplaceinsteadofhavingthingstuckedawayinboxesallovertheplace.Youcanhaveasecuredlocationforallyourfinancesandinformationwithdailyupdatesandfinancialactivity.Don’tmakelifedifficultbytryingtodothingsonyourown,butletushelpyouwithanintegratedwebsitethatallowsyoutotakecontrolandfeelateaseknowingwhereallyourboxesare.“Thosewhoknowwhattheyhave,farebetterthanmost.”Clickheretowatchthevideo.

ClickHeretowatchthevideoexplanationoftheAlphaSolutions13/50TrendModelbyHarvest’sManagingDirectorTimNewell.Thevideogivesanexcellentdescriptionofhowthemodelissetupandhowallourmodelsarerulesbasedandwhatkindofprotectiontheycanpotentiallyofferyou.

ForMoreModelInformation:AlphaSolutionsModels

SourcesInclude(butarenotlimitedto):TheShermanReports,SevensReport,FirstTrust,MFS&ThomsonReuters