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Feature / By Joel Rebibo

Ari Fleischer doesn’t believePresident Barack Obamadeserves credit, or the Jewishvote, for providing Israel withhundreds of millions of dol-lars — above and beyond theregular military aid — to pur-chase additional Iron Domeantimissile batteries.

“Military cooperation withIsrael has always been a givenfor U.S. administrations,” saysFleischer, who was WhiteHouse spokesman in 2001-2003 under President GeorgeBush. “It’s automatic. And sincemilitary technology is alwaysadvancing, it means fundingnew weapons systems as theyare introduced.

“The problem with Obama isnot the givens, but what he’sdoing, and what he’s doing ismaking the United States neu-tral on the conflict betweenIsrael and the Palestinians. He’sgrasping for something he canbrag about, and the only thinghe can brag about is somethingthat is a given.”

Fleischer, who says he’s hap-pily retired from active politics,runs his own management con-sulting firm in New York andserves on the board of theRepublican Jewish Coalition.He was in Israel last week tourge Americans in Israel to reg-

ister for the November voteand, of course, to cast theirballot for Mitt Romney.

Though he’s formally out ofpolitics, Fleischer is clearly inhis element when discussing

polls and trends and what tolook for as the U.S. presiden-tial elections draw closer.

“There are four numbersthat are important,” he says.“11, 16, 19 and 24.”

Those figures represent thepercentage of the Jewish votethat Republican presidentialcandidates garnered in thepast two decades. In 1992,President George H. W. Bushwon 11% of the Jewish vote inhis losing campaign to BillClinton. In 1996, RepublicanBob Dole got 16% in his loss toClinton; in 2000, PresidentGeorge W. Bush gained 19% inhis victory over Al Gore; and in2004, Bush got 24% in his winover John Kerry. While JohnMcCain’s support in the 2008race dropped to 22%, the trendis clear.

“Republicans have beenmaking deep inroads intoDemocratic territory fordecades,” Fleischer notes.“And because of Obama’sweakness on Israel, I seeRomney doing even better,getting 25% of the Jewish vote,maybe more.”

On existential issues likeIran, Fleischer is convincedthat Romney will stand byIsrael, in stark contrast toObama, who has been “push-ing Israel around.”

“Romney will show consis-tency, strength and determi-nation — as opposed toObama’s silence, vacillatingand weakness — which historyshows is a deterrent to war,” hesays.

RJC Executive DirectorMatt Brooks, who accompa-nied Fleischer on his trip lastweek, takes particular excep-tion to Obama’s claim that his

administration has led theeffort on sanctions againstIran. “The president activelyopposed sanctions, but onlycame around, kicking andscreaming, after a RepublicanCongress took the lead andpassed legislation, which hethen took credit for.

“In the 2013 proposedbudget, he wanted to cut mis-sile defense spending by 22%.Thanks to our Republicanfriends in Congress, the fund-ing was restored and evenincreased. Now he’s trying totake credit.

“It’s part of a troubling pat-tern, whereby the presidentopposes something and, then,when he finds he’s on thewrong side, tries to take creditfor it.”

Where does Romney standon moving the U.S. Embassyfrom Tel Aviv to Yerushalayim,Israel’s capital? Will he prom-ise to implement theJerusalem Embassy Act of1995, like every otherRepublican candidate, andthen sign a presidential waiverthat lets him off the hook?

Fleischer finesses the issue.“He wants to move theembassy and will consult withIsraeli leaders about timingand the best way to accom-plish it,” he says. “He’s taking anuanced position on it.”

While John McCain wonjust 22% of the AmericanJewish vote in 2008, com-pared to 78% for Obama, thefigures were reversed amongAmericans living in Israel,who, perhaps due to the dis-tance, weren’t captivate by theObama magic.

“American Jews in Israelwere the first to detect theearly warning signals onObama,” says Fleischer. “In2009, I warned that Jews inAmerica would have buyer’sremorse, but in Israel peoplealready saw the emptiness inObama’s remarks.

“Americans who live inIsrael are by definition believ-ers in national security andpeace through strength, andtherefore more likely to voteRepublican.”

Beyond the Jewish vote,Fleischer is convinced thatObama is losing supportamong the general public. Henotes a recent WashingtonPost poll showing Obama andRomney tied at 47%. Gallupshows a 46%-46% tie.

“When an incumbent ispolling below 50%, he’s introuble,” says Fleischer. “Themagic is gone.”

In Fleischer’s view, three

The Bare Minimum on IsraelPresident Obama is casting himself as a friend of Israel, pointing to additional funding for Iron Domemissile systems. But former White House spokesman Ari Fleischer points to what the president has said and done on Iran and the Palestinian issue, and comes to a very different conclusion.

It’s crunch time, says RabbiYechiel Kalish, national directorof government affairs forAgudath Israel of America,explaining why he made a light-ning visit to Eretz Yisrael thisweek, despite the intense prepa-rations in New York for theSiyum HaShas.

“We have two months to getAmerican citizens in Israel toregister to vote in the U.S. elec-tions,” he told Hamodia.

Recognizing that “manychareidim will only vote if theGedolei Yisrael are behind theconcept,” Rabbi Kalish came toIsrael to present a kol korei onthe subject to Harav AharonLeib Steinman and HaravChaim Kanievsky, and ask fortheir signatures.

He was accompanied byHarav Aharon Feldman, theRosh Yeshivah of Ner Israel inBaltimore, and a letter from theNovominsker Rebbe in NewYork explaining the vitalimportance of getting Ame-ricans in Israel to vote.

In the works is a second kol

korei that will be signed byAdmorim and aimed at theChassidishe world.

“Communities that vote arecommunities that are listenedto,” says Rabbi Kalish, explain-ing the importance of peopleregistering to vote. “Reb MosheFeinstein and Reb YaakovKamenetsky said it was a chiyuvgamur, an absolute obligation,to vote.”

Rav Feldman has said thatsomeone who doesn’t vote issaying that the issues that areimportant to Klal Yisrael aren’timportant to him.

When Americans in Israelvote in large numbers it has adouble benefit, adds RabbiKalish.

“Every vote cast from EretzYisrael comes from someoneconcerned for the safety andsecurity of people living there,and this will be understood inWashington,” he says. But, inaddition, since the vast majori-ty of voters in Israel are fromthe New York area, it givesAgudah more clout inWashington when fighting forissues that are crucial to theJewish community in theUnited States.

“The positive effect thatcomes from the 20 minutes ittakes to register if absolutelyincredible,” Rabbi Kalishexplains. “I have no doubt thatonce people understand this,they’ll register in very largenumbers.”

‘Communities That Vote Are Communities That Are Listened To’

Rabbi Yechiel Kalish: “Reb MosheFeinstein and Reb Yaakov Kamenetskysaid it was a chiyuv gamur, anabsolute obligation, to vote.”

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Matt Brooks, executive director of the Republican Jewish Coalition (R), Ari Fleischer (C), and Rabbi Shmuel Machlis ofthe American Citizens’ Gemach, a division of Agudath Israel of America. “It’s a troubling pattern, whereby the presidentopposes something and, then, when he finds he’s on the wrong side, tries to take credit for it,” says Brooks.

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things propelled Obama to vic-tory in 2008, and they are allabsent this time round: thewar in Iraq, anti- George Bushsentiment and the magic ofBarack Obama.

He points to the politicalbattering Obama has taken inthe past few years: In 2009, gov-ernorships in New Jersey andVirginia went to theRepublicans; in 2010, TedKennedy’s Senate seat went tothe Republicans and the mid-term congressional electionsshowed the biggest swing since1938; in 2011, Anthony Weiner’sseat in Queens went Repub-lican; in 2012 the recall inWisconsin went in favor of theRepublicans.

“All the momentum is on theRepublican side,” he says.

Fleischer is willing to go outon a limb and make a bold pre-diction. As opposed to all thosewho predict a tight race, he fore-casts an “October surprise” thatwill see “the bottom fall out onthe president’s numbers” andRomney going on to win theelection handily.

“The economy is the issue —jobs, deficits, debts. And if hedoesn’t turn it around, he’s fin-ished.”

Fleischer believes thatRomney’s visit to Israel,planned for the end of thismonth, will be a chance for himto clarify his stand on Israel andset himself apart from Obama,who hasn’t visited Israel sincehis election (even when he madehis trip to neighboring Egypt).

“Obama doesn’t miss anopportunity to take an opportu-nity to take a swipe at Israel,” hesays. “Romney is a strong sup-porter.”

Romney, who has said hispolicies toward Israel will be the

opposite of Obama’s, will meetwith Prime Minister BinyaminNetanyahu and PA ChairmanMahmoud Abbas and is expect-ed to address his vision of theMiddle East, especially in lightof the recent turmoil.

Does Romney’s visit putNetanyahu in an uncomfortableposition vis-à-vis Obama? Will awarm welcome of the presumed

Republican presidential candi-date be perceived inWashington as Israel minglingin internal American affairs?

“Netanyahu and Romney aretwo experienced politicians,”smiles Fleischer. “They’ll knowhow to handle it.”

In the final analysis, ifFleischer sees Romney winninghandily in November, why

should Israel’s Americans both-er to register to vote? Theanswer is obvious: Fleischerdoesn’t have a crystal ball, andthe United States has had itsshare of close calls in recentyears.

“Imagine it’s Nov. 7, you wakeup, after not voting, and youhear we have another razor-thinelection,” Fleischer told a stand-ing-room-only town hall eventin Modiin earlier last week.“Americans in Israel equal thenumber of voters in Dayton orFt. Lauderdale. You’re equallyimportant.”

But why, for example, shouldI register — I come fromArizona, where the Republicansare a shoo-in? First, says

Brooks, there’s no such thing asa shoo-in. Second, there arecongressional races that are alsoimportant.

Two other key players in thepush to get Americans in Israelto vote are Elie Pieprz, nationaldirector of I Vote Israel, andRabbi Shmuel B. Machlis, assis-tant director of AmericanCitizens Gemach, a division ofAgudath Israel of America. Bothgroups are nonpartisan, withRabbi Machlis spearheading thevoter-registration drive in thereligious sector.

Pieprz, whose group ar-ranged Fleischer and Brooks’visit and is scheduled to bring toIsrael figures representing the

Democratic party, stresses theimportance of Americans inIsrael voting.

“We’re trying to make it easi-er to register and to makeAmericans in Israel understandthat their vote counts,” saysPieprz. “In a way, a vote castfrom Israel is more impactful. Ifthe people in Washington seethat we’re requesting two orthree times as many ballots asin previous elections, they’ll situp and take notice. The knowl-edge that people in Israel arevoting could impact on policy,as well as on other Jewish vot-ers back home in the UnitedStates.

“We’re tapping in on concernthat people here feel, the sense

of vulnerability and the recog-nition that what happens inAmerica — the economy, forinstance — impacts on those liv-ing in Israel.”

Adds Rabbi Machlis: “Thereis a lot of apathy in some com-munities here. People aren’t asinvolved as we’d like to see. Butwe are making progress, andpeople are certainly responsivewhen they hear that theGedolim are fully behind thisand are urging Americans inIsrael to register and vote.”

For information on how to con-tact your local representative,please call the office of AmericanCitizens Gemach at (03) 912-5626;vote@acgemach.org

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Ari Fleischer (L) with Matt Brooks, executive director of the Republican Jewish Coalition. According to Fleischer,“Obama doesn’t miss an opportunity to take an opportunity to take a swipe at Israel. Romney is a strong supporter.”

There are more than 160,000 Americans living in Israel who are eligible to vote in the upcoming elections.

Fleischer forecasts an “October surprise” that will

see “the bottom fall out on the president’s

numbers” and Romney going on to win the election

handily.