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THE HALIFAX INDEX
AN ECONOMIC GUT CHECK AND IMPETUS FOR ACTION
MAY 24TH, 2012
FRED MORLEY CHIEF ECONOMIST AND EXECUTIVE VP,
GREATER HALIFAX PARTNERSHIP
S UC C E S S : WE ’L L K NOW IT WHE N WE G E T IT
T HE HA L IFA X S C OR E C A R D
T HE HA L IFA X INDE X
• A gut check on our performance • Share timely and relevant information in narrative
form • Affirm actions and suggest course corrections to
our Economic Strategy • Create a dialogue that allows us to ask the right
questions
? ? ? ?
T HE HA L IFA X INDE X A P P R OA C H
• Broadening the definition of economic progress • Working with research capable organizations to find
the most accurate measures of success • Benchmarking our progress against others • Don’t point fingers, build partnerships
INDE X OUT C OME S
• A strategy progress report • An economic gut check for Halifax • Business Climate Review • Quality of Place Report • Action inventory of Challenges and Opportunities • Insight for action & alignment • Special reports
– Immigration – Business Confidence – Regional Centre Demographics
T HE HA L IFA X INDE X WOR DL E
Economic Progress
Quality of Life
Economic Growth
Sustainability
People
People
Population
Education Labour Force
Workforce Quality
P OP UL AT ION G R OWT H
Census Metropolitan Area
2006 Population 2011 Population
Actual Growth
% Growth
St. John’s 181,113 196,966 15,853 8.8%
Regina 194,971 210,566 15,595 8.0%
Quebec 719,153 765,706 46,553 6.5%
Halifax 372,858 390,328 17,470 4.7%
Victoria 330,088 344,615 14,527 4.4%
London 457,720 474,786 17,066 3.7%
A WE A K E NING MIG R AT ION OUT L OOK
1,896
-852
1,231
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
International Interprovincial Intraprovincial
Annual migration estimates, Halifax Source: Statistics Canada
2006-07 2010-11
S MA L L E R C IT IE S OF F E R ING C OMP E T IT ION
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
International Immigrants to Atlantic Canadian Cities Source: Citizenship and Immigration Canada
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
INT ’L S T UDE NT S A S A N OP P OR T UNIT Y
2,770
1,291
13,546
6,504
296 373 823 856
Newfoundland and Labrador Prince Edward Island Nova Scotia New Brunswick
International Students Present and Transitions from Temporary Student to Permanent Resident, 2005-09
Source: Citizenship and Immigration Canada
International Students Present Transitions from Temporary Student to Permanent Resident
Economy Gross
Domestic Product
Sectors
Consumer Behaviour
Construction Commercial
Space
Gateway Movement
Business Confidence
E C ONOMIC S IZE
G DP P E R P E R S ON
A S TA R T-UP B OOM
% Change in the # of Business Establishments (2003–2010)*
*CSDs only (i.e. the City of Moncton – not the Moncton region. Source: Canadian Business Patterns (2011). Statistics Canada
0.0%1.6%
-15.7%-1.9%
10.0%-1.2%
3.7%-7.6%
15.6%13.3%
8.7%-6.0%-5.9%
1.8%-1.0%
-12.3%-1.3%
-8.5%
Newfoundland and LabradorSt. John's
Corner BrookPrince Edward Island
CharlottetownSummersideNova Scotia
DigbyLunenburg
HalifaxTruro
Cape BretonNew Brunswick
Saint JohnMoncton
MiramichiFredericton
Edmundston
C ONS UME R S
OF F IC E C ONS T R UC T ION
G AT E WAY R E C OV E R ING R A P IDLY
3,469,062
3,594,164
29,753 29,263
2007 2011
Activity at Halifax International Airport Source: Halifax International Airport Authority
Air Passengers (En/Deplaned) Air Cargo (Tonnes)
1.38 1.33
0.77 0.84
Cruise Passengers Cruise Ships Port Cargo TEUs
Growth of Port of Halifax indicators, indexed to 2007 Source: Port of Halifax
2007 2011
B US INE S S C ONF IDE NC E HOL DING S T E A DY
25.6 26.1 29.9 20.2
38.5
20.2
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
Overall Halifax Dartmouth Other HRM New Business (<10 years)
Established Business (10+ years)
Halifax Business Confidence Index Source: GHP Business Confidence Survey
Aug-11 Apr-12
FA C TOR S IN B US INE S S C ONF IDE NC E
Quality of Place Safety
Affordability
Health
Community
Arts, Culture, and Recreation
A S A F E R C IT Y, P E OP L E F E E L ING S A F E R
82.7 96.8 101.9
56.1
82.4
131.4
83.7
Canada Halifax St. John's Quebec City
London Regina Victoria
Total crime index, Canada and benchmark cities
Source: Statistics Canada
2006 2010
86% 86% 89% 87% 90% 87%
...In your neighborhood ...Where you work and shop Satisfaction with peace and order
Share of Halifax residents who feel safe... Source: Halifax Regional Police Survey
2007 2011
HA L IFA X INT E R NAT IONA L LY C OMP E T IT IV E
99.33 102.31 110.14
83.02
109.42 104.44
110.84
101.78 104.44 107.87 110.05
96.58 96.68
Boston (MA)
Seattle (WA)
Victoria Raleigh (NC)
Toronto Montreal Vancouver Saskatoon Quebec Regina Halifax (NS) London (ON)
St. John's
Cost-of-living and quality-of-living indices Source: fDi intelligence
Cost Quality
HOUS ING C OS T S
HA L IFA X A S A N A C T IV E C IT Y
52.1%
57.7%
44.5%
50.2%
56.6% 53.9%
64.0%
Canada Halifax St. John's Quebec City London Regina Victoria
Activity levels during leisure time, active or moderately active Source: Statistics Canada
2005 2010
A G R OWING A R T S A ND C ULT UR E S E C TOR
7.6
3.4
13.8
8.0
3.7
11.7
Halifax St. John's Quebec City London Regina Victoria
Employment in arts, culture and recreation, 000s Source: Statistics Canada
2006 2011
B US INE S S E NG A G E ME NT
B UT A R E WE HA P P Y ?
Sustainability
Density
Transportation Environment
Municipal Fiscal
Sustainability
S P E C IA L TOP IC : DE MOG R A P HIC S OF T HE R E G IONA L C E NT R E
DE NS IT Y IS C R IT IC A L TO S US TA INA B IL IT Y
Source: Canadian Urban Institute
A NE E D F OR R E NE WE D F OC US ON T HE R E G IONA L C E NT R E
MOV ING P E OP L E
G OOD E NV IR ONME NTA L P E R F OR MA NC E
B
D
B+ A-
B- C+
B+ B B
A
B- C
Nova Scotia Newfoundland Quebec Ontario Saskatchewan British Columbia
Water Quality by Province Source: Waterproof - Canada's Drinking Water Report Card
2006 2011
7.18
30.27
15.52
20.44
34.37
13.12
1.36
8.77
1.05 3.13
0.00 2.27
Halifax (4) St. John's (1) Quebec City (6) London (3) Regina (1) Victoria (7)
Air quality measures, 2011 (# of test sites in parentheses) Source: Environment Canada
Ozone (parts per billion) Fine Particulate Matter (µg/m3)
F IS C A L S TA B IL IT Y
So what have we learned?
WE DON’T K NOW A L L T HE A NS WE R S
• But we know the questions to ask
Population Growth? Business
Climate?
Healthy Heart?
Major Projects?
Sustain Halifax? Quality of
Life?
HOW DO WE DO A L L T HIS ?
HA L IFA X NE E DS A C ULT UR E OF PA R T NE R S HIP & INNOVAT ION.
Questions