Post on 22-Jul-2020
Groundfish Operational Assessments 2015 Overview
Northeast Fisheries Science Center
http://www.nefsc.noaa.gov/groundfish/operational-assessments-2015/
Summary Presentation
Operational Assessment Process
Among Stock Comparison and Overview
Assessment and Management History
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 2
Operational Assessment Timeline
Species Stock
Northeast Regional Coordi-nating
Council meeting
Industry Outreach meetings July 22,
2015
Assess-ment
Oversight Panel
meeting July 27,
2015
Conduct Assess-ments
August-Sep.
Peer Review Meeting Sep. 14-
18
Final report to
the NEFMC:
PDT SSC
October 2015
NEFMC FW 55 Dec. 1-3
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 3
http://www.nefsc.noaa.gov/groundfish/operational-assessments-2015/
We are here
Rules of Engagement for Operational Assessments • Update model runs and BRP estimates with limited
changes to model configuration (m, selectivity, weighting, etc).
• Exclusion of ASAP likelihood constants. • TOGA for NEFSC survey tow evaluation. • Apply a retrospective adjustment to the t+1 abundance if
the Mohn’s Rho (7 year peel) estimate are outside of the model’s 90% CI.
• Consider changes to discards mortality rates based on new studies (GOM cod and wolffish).
• Plan B if model fails (average catch). 4
External Peer Reviewers • Steven Cadrin (Chair)—SMAST • Jeans-Jacque Maguire—consultant • Gary Nelson, MADMF. • Jim Berkson—NOAA-Sea Grant • Other Key Participants
• Jamie Cournane—NEFMC (at review table) • Doug Butterworth—Industry • Large audience in Woods Hole and on Webinar
5
Reviewer’s Reports on Each Stock • Acceptability (or not) of assessment as
scientific basis for management advice. • Recommendation of alternative basis for
catch if assessment is not accepted. • Key sources of uncertainty • Research needs
6
http://www.nefsc.noaa.gov/groundfish/operational-assessments-2015/agenda.html
• Data Portal
•Background
• Working Papers • Presentations
Data Portal Output Search Criteria Assessment Year Species Stock Information Type OUTPUTS Zip File=Everything Assessment Report Figures Tables Model info: inputs, outputs, diagnostics Maps—Survey Maps –Commercial Background Reports
Efficiency Initiative
Stock Assessment Models VPA • Georges Bank winter flounder • Georges Bank haddock • Plaice • Witch flounder • Cape Cod-Gulf of Maine
yellowtail flounder
ASAP • Gulf of Maine cod (M=0.2) • Gulf of Maine cod (Mramp) • Southern New England-Mid
Atlantic winter flounder • Gulf of Maine haddock • White hake • Pollock • Redfish • Southern New England-Mid
Atlantic yellowtail flounder
OTHER • GB cod • Wolffish • N & S Windowpanes • GB yellowtail • GOM winter • Ocean Pout • Halibut
Reviewers Findings (1) • 18 of 20 stock assessments were judged as an
acceptable scientific basis for management advice • Two assessments were not accepted due to poor
diagnostics and Plan B was implemented (OFL recommendation) • Georges Bank cod
• Implemented method for adjusting recent average catch based on recent survey trends.
• Atlantic halibut • Suggested slight increase in catch based on
increased spatial incidence of discards
9
Reviewers Findings (2) • Stock status did not change for 15 of the 20
stocks, worsened for two stocks, improved for one stock, and became more uncertain for two stocks.
• Number of stocks using a retrospective adjustment has increased from 2 to 7.
10
Stock Status Overfished and Overfishing (5) GOM Cod Cape Cod/GOM yellowtail SNE Yellowtail (worse) GB Winter (worse) Witch
Not Overfished and Overfishing (0)
Overfished but No Overfishing (4) SNE winter Wolffish Northern Windowpane Ocean Pout
Not Overfished and No Overfishing (7) GB haddock GOM haddock Plaice Redfish White Hake Pollock Southern Windowpane
Overfished but Overfishing UNKNOWN (2) GB cod Atlantic Halibut Not Overfishing but Overfished UNKNOWN (1) GM winter
UNKNOWN Status (1) (low abundance) GB yellowtail
The Green Stocks
12
Stock Last Assessment
Status Change
Since Last Assessment
Overfishing Occurring?
Overfished?
Georges Bank Haddock 2012 Same No NoGulf of Maine Haddock 2014 Same No NoAmerican Plaice 2012 Same No NoAcadian Redfish 2012 Same No NoWhite Hake 2013 Same No NoPollock 2014 Same No NoSouthern New England/Mid-Atlantic Windowpane 2012
Same No No
The Green and Red Stocks
13
Stock Last Assessment
Status Change
Since Last Assessment
Overfishing Occurring?
Overfished?
Gulf of Maine Winter Flounder 2014 Same No UnknownSouthern New England/ Mid-Atlantic Winter Flounder 2011
Same No Yes
Wolffish 2012 Same No YesGulf of Maine/Georges Bank Windowpane 2012
Better No Yes
Ocean Pout 2012 Same No Yes
The Red and Unknown Stocks
14
Stock Last Assessment
Status Change
Since Last Assessment
Overfishing Occurring?
Overfished?
Gulf of Maine Cod 2014 Same Yes YesCape Cod/Gulf of Maine Yellowtail Flounder 2012
Same Yes Yes
Southern New England/Mid-Atlantic Yellowtail Flounder 2012 Worse
Yes Yes
Georges Bank Winter Flounder 2014 Worse Yes YesWitch Flounder 2012 Same Yes YesGeorges Bank Yellowtail Flounder 2014 Same Unknown Unknown
Georges Bank Cod 2012More
uncertain Unknown Yes
Atlantic Halibut 2012More
uncertain Unknown Yes
10/09/2015 15
Figure 1 page 9 Executive Summary
16
Retrospective Adjustment applied to 7 of 14 Age or Size-Based Assessments • Retrospective Pattern—a consistent pattern of over or
under estimating terminal year biomass and fishing mortality due to an unknown change in landings, discards, natural mortality or survey catchability in the most recent years.
• Seven stocks {GB haddock, CC/GOM yellowtail, GB winter, redfish, plaice, witch, pollock}
• For these stocks the 2014 SSB estimate was adjusted downward by 24% on average (Range -49% to -20%)
17
18
Table 6 page 7 Executive Summary
Keeping up with a Changing Environment • Stock assessment models incorporate the primary
consequences of changes in the environment • Growth • Maturity • Recruitment
• Irrespective of the underlying cause, the updated information is immediately relevant to management
19 10/09/2015
Changes in Average Weights at Age: Georges Bank Haddock, 1935-2014
20
Courtesy L. Brooks
Age 9+
Age 4
Age 1
Age 8
Age 5
Changes in Average Weights at Age: Witch Flounder, 1985-2014
21
Courtesy S. Wigley
Age 3
Age 6
Age 8
Age 10
Changes in Total Biomass (mt) at Maximum Sustainable Yield Proxy: 2005, 2008, 2015 for 8 stocks: {GOM cod, GB haddock, GOM yellowtail, GB winter, SNE yellowtail, Plaice, Witch, Redfish, white hake}
22
759950 667713
525496
0100000200000300000400000500000600000700000800000
2005 GARM II 2008 GARM III 2015 Updates
-12% -21%
Spawning Stock Biomass since 1985: 12 Stocks
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
900000
1000000Sp
awni
ng S
tock
Bio
mas
s (m
t)
Year
All Model Based GroundfishGOM cod m=0.2
GB haddock
GOM haddock
SNE yellowtail
CC GM yellowtail
Plaice
Witch
GB winter
SNE Winter
Redfish
White hake
Pollock
Spawning Stock Biomass since 1985: 7 Stocks
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000Sp
awni
ng S
tock
Bio
mas
s (m
t)
Year
Model Based Flatfish and GOM Cod
GOM cod m=0.2
SNE yellowtail
CC GM yellowtail
Plaice
Witch
GB winter
SNE Winter
Differing Trends: Haddock, Redfish, Pollock, W Hake vs Cod and Flatfish
25
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1,000,000
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Cod
+Flat
fish
SSB
(mt)
Hadd
ock,
Redf
ish, P
ollo
ck ,W
Ha
ke S
SB (m
t)
YEAR
Pollock, Haddock, RedfishCod + flatfish
26
Figures 6-7 pages 14-15 Executive Summary
Catch since 2005
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Catc
h (0
00's
mt)
Year
All groundfish stockswolffish
halibut
pout
S window
N window
pollock
white hake
redfish
snewf
gomwf
gbwf
witch
plaice
ccyt
sneyt
gbyt
gom haddock
gb haddock
gomcod
gbcod
Catch since 2005
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Catc
h (0
00's
mt)
Year
Flatfish and Codhalibut
S window
N window
snewf
gomwf
gbwf
witch
plaice
ccyt
sneyt
gbyt
gomcod
gbcod
Catch ABCs
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Catc
h (0
00's
mt)
Year
All groundfish stockswolffish
halibut
pout
S window
N window
pollock
white hake
redfish
snewf
gomwf
gbwf
witch
plaice
ccyt
sneyt
gbyt
gom haddock
gb haddock
gomcod
gbcod
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Catc
h (0
00's
mt)
Year
Flatfish and Cod halibut
S window
N window
snewf
gomwf
gbwf
witch
plaice
ccyt
sneyt
gbyt
gomcod
gbcod
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Catc
h (0
00's
mt)
Year
All groundfish stockswolffish
halibut
pout
S window
N window
pollock
white hake
redfish
snewf
gomwf
gbwf
witch
plaice
ccyt
sneyt
gbyt
gom haddock
gb haddock
gomcod
gbcod
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Catc
h (0
00's
mt)
Year
Fatfish and Cod halibut
S window
N window
snewf
gomwf
gbwf
witch
plaice
ccyt
sneyt
gbyt
gomcod
gbcod
Catch since 2005
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Catc
h (0
00's
mt)
Year
All 20 Groundfish stockswolffish
halibut
pout
S window
N window
pollock
white hake
redfish
snewf
gomwf
gbwf
witch
plaice
ccyt
sneyt
gbyt
gom haddock
gb haddock
gomcod
gbcodMSY
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Catc
h (0
00's
mt)
Year
Groundfish minus GB haddockwolffish
halibut
pout
S window
N window
pollock
white hake
redfish
snewf
gomwf
gbwf
witch
plaice
ccyt
sneyt
gbyt
gom haddock
gomcod
gbcodMSY
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Catc
h (0
00's
mt)
Year
Flatfish and Cod halibut
S window
N window
snewf
gomwf
gbwf
witch
plaice
ccyt
sneyt
gbyt
gomcod
gbcodMSY
Long Term Performance of Projections • Projections used to set future catches and plan rebuilding
strategies do not perform well (projected catch does not result in the desired fishing mortality, and stock growth does not occur as expected).
• In 2011 the NEFSC augmented the PDT to examine an alternative to using updated assessments for setting FY 2012 – 2014 ABCs. Simulation analyses showed that projections tend to be biased high – that is, they over-estimated stock growth and future catches.
32
Most recentStock control rule
GB cod 75%Fmsy constantGOM cod pseudo 75%Fmsy constant (3 projections)
GB Haddock 75%FmsyGOM Haddock 75%Fmsy
GB Yellowtail Flounder 75%Fmsy constant no projectionSNE Yellowtail Flounder long term 75%Fmsy constant
CC/GOM Yellowtail Flounder 75%Fmsy constantPlaice 75%Fmsy
Witch Flounder Frebuild constantGB Winter Flounder Frebuild
GOM Winter Flounder 75%Fmsy constant no projectionSNE/MA Winter Flounder long term 75%Fmsy constant, different recruitment
Redfish 75%FmsyWhite Hake 75%Fmsy
Pollock 75%Fmsy constantNorthern Windowpane Flounder 75%Fmsy constant no projectionSouthern Windowpane Flounder 75%Fmsy constant no projection
Ocean Pout 75%Fmsy constant no projectionHalibut Frebuild
Wolffish 75%Fmsy constant no projection
7 75%Fmsy or Frebuild5 75%Fmsy or Frebuild and held constant6 75%Fmsy and held constant, no accepted projection2 Long term 75% Fmsy
Assessment Terminal YearB = benchmark GARM3 op-2012 op-2015 op-2017U = update effort effort effort ABC ABC ABC ABC ABC ABC ABCStock 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016GB cod B U B U UGOM cod B B B U U UGB Haddock B U U UGOM Haddock B U B U UGB Yellowtail Flounder B U U U U U B U USNE Yellowtail Flounder B B U UCC/GOM Yellowtail Flounder B U U UPlaice B U U UWitch Flounder B U U UGB Winter Flounder B B U U UGOM Winter Flounder B B U U USNE/MA Winter Flounder B B U URedfish B U U UWhite Hake B B U UPollock B B U U UNorthern Windowpane Flounder B U U USouthern Windowpane Flounder B U U UOcean Pout B U U UHalibut B U U UWolffish B U U
overfishing 13 1 1 7 3 1 1 5not overfishing 6 1 10 2 4 12GARM 3 projection (2 year catch assumpion) to estimate ABCs 2010-201213 stock op-2012 (2 year catch assumpion) to estimate ABCs 2013-2015
RebuildingRebuild
stock End date probabilityGB cod 2026 50% 4 overfished but no projectionGOM cod 2024 50% 5 rebuiltGB Haddock rebuilt 7 difficult to rebuild by end dateGOM Haddock rebuilt 2 on schedule (not bound by Frebuild)GB Yellowtail Flounder 2032 50% 2 unknown statusSNE Yellowtail Flounder NACC/GOM Yellowtail Flounder 2023 50%Plaice 2024 50%Witch Flounder 2017 75%GB Winter Flounder 2017 75%GOM Winter Flounder NASNE/MA Winter Flounder 2023 50%Redfish rebuiltWhite Hake 2014 50%Pollock rebuiltNorthern Windowpane Flounder 2017 50%Southern Windowpane Flounder rebuiltOcean Pout 2014 50%Halibut 2056 50%Wolffish undefined
General Big Picture Concerns • Diagnostic retrospective issues are not improving. • Less acceptable analytical assessments will results in higher
uncertainty with regards to understanding stock dynamics over time. Biomass status becomes unknown.
• There is no evidence for increases in biomass for several stocks that have relatively low recent catch and exploitation rates (Ocean Pout, Wolffish, GOM & SNE Winter Flounder, GB Yellowtail).
• ABCs set since 2010 have not consistently ended overfishing or promoted rebuilding for many groundfish stocks (flatfish and cod).
• Greater divergence in stock status among stocks is producing greater challenges for groundfish management.
36
Common Research Recommendations • Benchmark Considerations
• Georges Bank Cod • Halibut • Witch
• Longer term, Synoptic Projects • Review stock structure {cod, halibut} • Causes of Low Productivity (especially growth and
recruitment) • Address Retrospective Problem—Remedies not
Causes
37
Big Picture Questions?
38