Green Economy -

Assessing trends and impacts

A discussion over lunch on the Green Economy

Geneva, September 20,2016

KnowlEdge Srl

Andrea M.Bassi, Ph.D.

Founder and CEO, KnowlEdge Srl, Italy

Associate, IISD, Switzerland

Extraordinary Associate Professor of System Dynamics Modelling, Stellenbosch University, South Africa

© A

dam

Osw

ell /

WW

F-G

reat

er M

eko

ng

Setting the context

The Green Economy:

• Involves several sectors

• Requires the involvement of several actors

• Has been known for a long time

Setting the context (actors)

The Green Investment Report. 2016. World Economic Forum

Wind power: 1980 – 2010 (grid parity)

1980 2010 2020 1990 2000

Solar power : 1990 – 2016 (grid parity)

Algae (remediation): 2008 -

??

Main advantages: - Technology development and international leadership - Private sector profitability (from leadership) - Employment creation - Low carbon development (replacing coal with wind power)

Main advantages: - Technology development and international leadership - Potential private sector profitability (from leadership

and use of technology) - New business opportunities from waste reuse - Improved performance across sectoral value chains

- Employment creation - Reduced pollution (also avoiding costs of remediation)

Today

Hydrogen: 1990 -

Main advantages: - Technology development and international leadership - Potential private sector profitability (from leadership) - Employment creation - Low carbon development (power storage capacity)

Wastewater treatment and CO2 sequestration (2018) Biorefinery development, high value compounds (investment driven)

Denmark

China

Porras, I., Barton, D.N, Miranda, M. and Chacón-Cascante, A. (2013). Learning from 20 years of Payments for

Ecosystem Services in Costa Rica. International Institute for Environment and Development, London.

Setting the context (timeline)

Setting the context (2)

So far:

• There are no assessments at the national level

• The are over 300 sectoral assessments across countries

Setting the context (municipalities)

REvLOCAL - Revitalisation of local economy by development of renewable energy, August 2016. IEA.

Understanding Green Economy. 2014. ESPON

Setting the context (regions)

11

In islands, the LCOE of a solar PV rooftop system with a capacity factor of 15% is comprised between 0.12 and 0.18 US$/kW, compared to an average electricity price of 0.35 -1 US$/kWh (oversized diesel in small island resorts). PV can generate electricity cheaper than the short-run marginal cost of most islands generators

Electricitypricerangein

islands(dieselgenerators)

0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1

1,2

0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1

1,2

PV

US$/kWh

Lowcostofcapital Mediumcostofcapital Highcostofcapital

baseline(min) baseline(max-min)

Setting the context (regions)

Setting the context (3)

So far:

• Some easy solutions have been found:

– Substitution (energy)

– Conservation (energy and water)

• Some difficulties have emerged:

– High capital cost

– Resistance to behavioral change (e.g. diet)

– Uncertainty (mitigation vs adaptation)

SOER 2015 The European environment

- state and outlook 2015 European Environment Agency.

Setting the context (energy)

Frankfurt School-UNEP Centre/BNEF. 2016. Global Trends in Renewable Energy Investment 2016

Setting the context (uncertainty)

The Green Investment Report. 2013. World Economic Forum

• Intervention: public transport network – investment

• job creation (income)

• costs and job creation for road construction (cost and income)

– km driven/car use • energy consumption (bbl + $)

• emissions (ton + $)

• safety (accidents + $)

• health (sick days + $)

• travel time (time and $)

– population density • Transit oriented development (TOD) -> real estate value ($)

Transport infrastructure (public transport)

Transport infrastructure (public transport) (2)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Today 2015 2030

Investment added benefit avoided costs

Capital costs

Employment Reduced congestion

Lower PM10

Avoided road expansion and maintenance cost

Avoided fuel consumption

Road safety

2020

Transport infrastructure (public transport) (3)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Today 2015 2030

Investment added benefit avoided costs

Capital costs

Employment Reduced congestion

Lower PM10

Avoided road expansion and maintenance cost

Avoided fuel consumption

Road safety

Public sector: reduced budgetary expenditure

Private sector and households: reduced energy bill

Public sector: higher budgetary expenditure

Public and private sector: higher productivity, hence GDP and tax revenues

Private sector and households: better air, lower health costs

2020

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Today 2015 2030

Investment addedbenefit avoidedcosts

Public sector

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Today 2015 2030

Investment addedbenefit avoidedcosts

Private sector

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Today 2015 2030

Investment addedbenefit avoidedcosts

Integrated perspective

2020 2020

2020

Transport infrastructure (public transport) (4)

Summary

Thank you!

For more information you can find me at:

andrea.bassi@ke-srl.com

www.ke-srl.com

KnowlEdge Srl