Post on 18-May-2015
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Global Warming, Disaster Management & Early Warning Systems
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Global Warming,Disaster Management
&Early Warning
Systems
Lokhaze Ali Visiting Teaching Faculty NUST
PhD Student NUST
Thought of the Day
“KUN FAYAKUN” �ْن� ُك �وُن� �ُك َف�َي
is an Arabic phrase in QuranIt means The Lord says “Be, and it is”
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Septimius Tertullianus, 200 B.C • One thing is sure - the earth is
now more cultivated and developed than ever before. There is more farming with pure force, swamps are drying up, and cities are springing up on unprecedented scale.
• We've become a burden to our planet. Resources are becoming scare, and soon nature will no longer be able to satisfy our needs. The time will ultimately come when pest, hunger, floods and war will diminish the excessive numbers of our human species. Global Warming, Disaster Management &
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Global Population Evolution For thousands of years, the world population remained well below 500 million. Within the last 200 years the population grew at an enormous speed to over 7 billion.
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It’s Alright to be CONFUSED
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What do the Scientists KNOW that the rest of Us do not Know?
The Earth Systems
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The Basic Questions
What controls Earth’s temperature?How is climate changing?Is Global Warming due to humans?What will it be like in your lifetime?
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Three Ways to Change the Temperature of a Planet
Change inputa) Solar variability
Change outputb) Earth’s Reflectivity (albedo)c) Greenhouse Gas Concentrations
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The Story of Planets
http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/wallpaper/art/pia06890-1600-1200.jpg
Earth (~150 million km)
Mars (~229 million km)
Venus (~108 million km)
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The Story of Planets
Venus Earth Mars
450°C 15°C -55°C(would be -18°C without natural greenhouse effect)
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The Greenhouse Effect
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Water Vapors
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Atmospheric Windows & Atmospheric Absorption Bands
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The Keeling Curve
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How CO2 concentration is measured
(left) CO2 Extraction Rack. (middle) Researchers at the lab measure the levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in air sent in weekly from sites that are part of an international air sampling network. (right) locations of stations for flasks collected for CO2 and CO2 isotope measurements.
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Ice Core containing tiny bubbles of Ancient Air
Scientists collecting ice core samples in Antarctica. An Antarctic ice core. A slice of ice core containing tiny bubbles of ancient air.
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Ice Core Data from Antarctica going back 800,000 YBP
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The Present CO2 Level
• 25th May, 2013:
400.01ppm
• 26th May, 2012:
396.34ppm
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WHEN WAS CO2 LAST AT TODAY’S LEVEL, AND WHAT WAS THE WORLD LIKE THEN?
• most recent estimates suggest that between 5.2 and 2.6 million years ago (during the Pliocene)
• the CO2 conc. in atmosphere reached between 330-400 ppm
• global temperatures were 2-3°C higher than now• sea levels higher by 10 – 25 meters • implying that global ice volume was much less
than today
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Multi-Model Averages and Assessed Ranges for Surface Warming
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Emissions & Sinks
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Kyoto/Montreal Protocol• Third Conference of Parties (COP-3)
in Kyoto, Japan, in December of 1997 • Sets binding greenhouse gas
emissions targets for countries that sign and ratify the agreement.
The gases covered under the Protocol include • carbon dioxide• methane• nitrous oxide• hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)• pduorocarbons (PFCs)• sulfur hexafluoride
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Kyoto Protocol Flexibility Mechanisms
1. Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)
2. Joint Implementation (JI)
3. International Carbon Trading (ICT)
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Carbon Trading
• Carbon Markets• Carbon Credits• Carbon Trading
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Carbon Footprint
Total amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases emitted directly/indirectly into the system
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Ocean Warming Faster Now Than in 10,000 Years
• Pacific Ocean waters warmed 15 times faster in the last six decades
• Than over the last ten millennia
• Fuel for more storms, hurricanes & disasters
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Ozone Treaty Accidentally Slowed Global Warming
• The largest ozone hole ever observed
• September 2006• Shows a large area of depleted
stratospheric ozone • Over the South Pole • A phasedown in the use of CFCs
was enacted to reverse the loss of ozone
• Which protects the Earth from the sun's harmful ultraviolet radiation.
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Disaster Management
World Meteorological Organization• According to the World
Meteorological Organization, one dollar invested in disaster preparedness can prevent seven dollars’ worth of disaster-related economic losses.
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Continuum of Magnitude
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Emergency Disaster CatastropheExtinction Level Event
Hazard
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Vulnerability
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Disaster
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CATASTROPHE
“… any natural or manmade incident, including terrorism, that results in extraordinary levels of mass casualties, damage, or disruption severely affecting the population, infrastructure, environment, economy, national morale, and/or government functions.”
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Resilient Societies
• Ability of a system, community or society exposed to hazards to resist, absorb, accommodate and recover from the effects of a hazard in a timely and efficient manner
• Through the preservation and restoration of its essential basic structures
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Rising Exposure to Cyclones and Hurricanes, 2000-2050
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World's Most Vulnerable Areas to Climate Change Mapped
• Scientists from the Wildlife Conservation Society, the University of Queensland, and Stanford University
• A roadmap that identifies the world's most vulnerable and least vulnerable areas in the Age of Climate Change
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World Vulnerability Map
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Earthquakes
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Balakot• Pakistan Earthquake 2005• Human Loss : 73,338 Dead
and &128,304 Severely Injured
Puerto Rico 2010
Turkey 2011
Haiti Earthquake
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Haiti 2010 – Before and After Earthquake• left 1.5 million homeless• killed 149,095 people of which 6300 died
in a potentially preventable cholera outbreak which infected a further 450,000 residents
• Cost Analysis by Remotely Sensed Data
Floods in Pakistan 2010
• Floods in Pakistan• July to August 2010• affected 20 million
people and destroyed health facilities
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Famine in Africa 2011• Affected 10 million people
across several countries• Large population displacement • Lack of Disaster PreparednessImmediate priorities included• Provision of water, sanitation,
shelter• Trained staff to address
widespread acute malnutrition• Surveillance for outbreaks• Vaccine programs for
preventable diseases• Funding• Inter-agency coordination
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Earthquake & Tsunami Japan 2011• Destruction of healthcare
facilities• Initial shortages of Food, Water,
fuel & Aid materials • 400,000 people were
evacuated to shelters with no heating in freezing temperatures
• Japan had invested in disaster management
• had created a more resilient health system which continued to function in spite of the challenges
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Fukushima Nuclear Disaster
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Super Typhoon Haiyan One of world’s most powerful storms in history from
space
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World’s Costliest Disasters
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Disaster Risk Management Framework
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Challenges to Decision Making vs Basic Goals
Challenges to Decision Making • Where Uncomfortable Officials • Meet in Unfamiliar Surroundings• To Play Unaccustomed Roles• Making Unpopular Decisions• Based on Inadequate Information• And in Much Too Little Time
Basic GoalsStanding Orders for All Disasters:• Establish/re-establish
communication with affected area.
• Secure and complete search and rescue.
• Meet basic human needs for medical treatment, water, food, shelter, and emergency fuels
• Restore critical infrastructure.• Open schools and local
businesses.• Begin the recovery.
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Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015 (HFA)
Endorsed at the World Conference on Disaster Reduction January 2005, Kobe, Hyogo, Japan
Global guidance framework to facilitate effective implementation of DRR at int’l, regional, national and local levels
• 3 Strategic goals
• 5 Priorities for action
• Implementation and follow-upGlobal Warming, Disaster Management &
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Green vs. Gray Infrastructure Costs
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FEMA Trailer Types
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Risk Maps/Simulation Models
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Category 2 Storm
Three Dimensional Map Rendition of Flooding Event-Purdue University
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Digital Elevation Modeling (DEM)
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Migration Maps (from & to)• Digital Database• Climate Refugees• International Donor’s Aid
Records• Visa/ATM Cards• Mobile Tracking
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ATLASThis 6-Foot, 330-Pound Robot May One Day Save Your Life
Designed to save lives in disaster zones (like Fukushima)1. VISION 2. COMPUTER3. HANDS4. JOINTS5. FEET6. MATERIALS7. STATURE
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Pakistan’s Population
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Pakistan’s Population
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Number of climate refugees to touch 1 Billion (1000 million) mark by 2050
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Early Warning Systems
Hadith
Tie the knot…… and leave it at God’s Will
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Earth Observation
• Insight/understanding of Earth’s complex processes/changes
• Satellite Remote Sensing• Aerial Surveys• Geographic Information
System GIS• Land/ocean-based
monitoring systems• To support models/tools to
support decision making processes
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Effective Warning Program
• Receive the warning• Understand the
information presented • Believe the information • Personalize the
information • Make correct decisions • Respond in a timely
manner
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Existing Early Warning Systems
• Tsunami• Wildfires• Landslides• Floods/Urban flash
floods• Drought and famine• Volcanic eruption• Typhoons and
Hurricanes• Earthquakes
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Meteoalarms
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MétéoFrance Cartes de Vigilence for the heat wave
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Nowcasting
• capacity to provide nowcasts
• forecasts for the following few hours
• analysis and extrapolation of weather systems
• observed on radar, satellites and in situ sensors
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Earthquake Tsunami Warning System
• new earthquake alert system
• ocean-based tsunami warning system
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Examples of Response to an Earthquake Early Warning
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Landslides
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Flood Warning System
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Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART)
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Wildfires
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The Future
• Vision The Alternative Futures (Multiple Futures)
• Emerging Trends of the World
• Your Strategies for the Multiple Futures
• A timeline to implement your strategies
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Follow China’s Strategy in Promoting Your Business
• China during Energy Crisis• Invested in manufacturing
Export Quality Solar Panels (as they could not afford to use them)
• Improved GDP • Now using those solar
panels for domestic and commercial use
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Why Invest in Space Technology?
• Digital Monitoring• Knowing the Unknown• Exploring the Resources• Climate Investment Funds• Invest in Disaster
Management and Export Quality Early Warning Systems (Remote Sensing & GIS)
• Production and Usage
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Future Trends
The Habitat Systems The Satellite Servicing ProjectThe Curiosity Rover to Mars