Global Construction 2030

Expo EDIFICA 2017

Santiago – Chile

4-6 October 2017

Graham Robinson – Global Construction Perspectives

Global Construction 2030 is the fourth in a series of

global studies of the construction and engineering industry published by

Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics

www.globalconstruction2030.com

graham@constructglobal.com

Medium Term Trends in GDP Global Regions Average annual % change

© Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics

Source: Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics

www.globalconstruction2030.com

1,1

1,9 1,4 1,2

5,9

4,2 4,1 3,7

0,0

4,0

8,0

2005-14 2014-20 2020-25 2025-30

Developed Regions Emerging Regions

Regional GDP Growth Average annual % change

© Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics

Source: Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics

www.globalconstruction2030.com

0,7

1,4 1,6

3,3 3,4

8,7

4,3

5,1

1,7 2,1

1,7 2,0

1,5

6,3

3,0

1,7 1,3 1,5 1,5

2,0 2,5

5,2

3,4 3,7

1,0 1,5

1,1

1,9 2,1

4,6

3,0 3,5

0,0

4,0

8,0

12,0

2005-14 2014-20 2020-25 2025-30

Western Europe

North America

Asia Pacific (Developed)

Eastern Europe

Latin America

Asia Pacific (Emerging)

Middle East North Africa

Sub-Saharan

Africa

GDP by Region in 2017

GDP at 2014 prices and exchange rates US$bn

Source: Global Construction Perspectives and

Oxford Economics www.globalconstruction2030.com

© Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics

Eastern Europe 7%

Latin America 7%

Asia Pacific

(Emerging) 22%

Middle East and

North Africa 4%

Sub-Saharan Africa 2% Western Europe 23%

North America 24%

Asia Pacific

(Developed) 11%

GDP by Region in 2030 GDP at 2014 prices and exchange rates US$bn

Source: Global Construction Perspectives and

Oxford Economics www.globalconstruction2030.com

© Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics

Eastern Europe 6%

Latin America 7%

Asia Pacific

(Emerging) 31%

Middle East and

North Africa 4%

Sub-Saharan Africa 2%

Western Europe 23%

North America 24%

Asia Pacific

(Developed) 11%

Global Construction Outlook 2030

Key Growth Drivers

www.globalconstruction2030.com

GDP and Population Growth – 10 countries

Average annual % change

© Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics

Source: Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics

www.globalconstruction2030.com

China Nigeria Saudi Arabia

Brazil Australia Russia UK Germany India US

5,3

1,7

6,5

1,0

1,9

0,9

2,5

1,4

2,6

3,4

0,2 0,8 1,0

0,0 0,6

-0,2

1,6

0,6

1,5

2,5

-4

0

4

8

GDP Population

Population Structure – 10 countries

% of working population

© Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics

Source: Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics

www.globalconstruction2030.com

Urbanization Trends – 10 countries

Source: Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics

www.globalconstruction2030.com

© Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics

Rise of Middle Income Households households with incomes above US$35,000 (millions)

© Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics

Source: Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics

www.globalconstruction2030.com

Quality of Existing Infrastructure – 10 Countries

Global Ranking out of 137 countries

Source: WEF Global Competitiveness Index 2017/18 (published 27 September 2017)

Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics Analysis

© Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics

10 12

27

39 47 46

74

108

30

131

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

US India China Australia Germany Saudi Arabia

Brazil Russia Nigeria UK

Budget Deficit: Ability to Fund Infrastructure

© Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics

Source: Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics

www.globalconstruction2030.com

2017 Global Market: Country Split

US$10.7 trillion at 2014 prices and exchange rates

Source: Global Construction Perspectives

and Oxford Economics

www.globalconstruction2030.com

© Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics

Russia 3%

Indonesia 3%

France 3%

UK 3%

Canada 3%

Germany 3%

India 4%

Japan 5%

US 12%

China 20%

Other 41%

2030 Global Market: Country Split

US$16.6 trillion at 2014 prices and exchange rates

Source: Global Construction Perspectives and

Oxford Economics

www.globalconstruction2030.com

© Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics

Other 38%

China 26% India 7%

Germany 3%

US 12%

Japan 4%

Russia 2%

France 2%

UK 2%

Canada 2%

Australia 2%

Contribution to Global Growth 2017-2030

US$bn at 2014 prices and exchange rates

Source: Global Construction Perspectives and

Oxford Economics

www.globalconstruction2030.com

© Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics

Other 34%

China 34%

US 10%

Turkey 1%

India 12%

Indonesia 6%

Korea 1% Mexico 1%

Canada 1%

Increasing Importance of Emerging Markets

Source: Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics

www.globalconstruction2030.com

© Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics

Construction Outlook 2030

Global Super Powers

www.globalconstruction2030.com

China: Growth Rates for

Construction Output 2005-2030 Average annual % change

Source: Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics

www.globalconstruction2030.com

© Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics

11,9

4,3 4,0 3,4

14,3

6,7 5,9 6,1

11,7

6,0

4,2 3,3

12,6

5,6 4,8 4,6

0,0

4,0

8,0

12,0

16,0

2005-14 2014-20 2020-25 2025-30

Housing Non-Housing Infrastructure Total

US: Growth Rates for

Construction Output 2005-2030 Average annual % change

Source: Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics

www.globalconstruction2030.com

© Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics

-7,5

5,4

3,0 2,8

-1,1

4,4

2,4 2,6 3,0

0,5

2,4 2,0

-3,2

3,7 2,7 2,6

-12,0

-8,0

-4,0

0,0

4,0

8,0

2005-14 2014-20 2020-25 2025-30

Housing Non-Housing Infrastructure Total

India: Growth Rates for

Construction Output 2005-2030 Average annual % change

Source: Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics

www.globalconstruction2030.com

© Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics

5,7 5,2

7,8

8,8

6,9

4,2

6,9 6,9

5,8

4,7

7,4 7,7

6,4

4,5

7,1 7,4

0,0

4,0

8,0

12,0

2005-14 2014-20 2020-25 2025-30

Housing Non-Housing Infrastructure Total

Indonesia: Growth Rates for

Construction Output 2005-2030 Average annual % change

Source: Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics

www.globalconstruction2030.com

© Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics

5,7 6,0 6,0 5,9 6,0 6,9

6,5 5,6

8,8

6,0 6,5

5,8

7,3

6,3 6,4 5,7

0,0

4,0

8,0

12,0

2005-14 2014-20 2020-25 2025-30

Housing Non-Housing Infrastructure Total

Regional Construction Outlook 2030

Regional Growth – Latin America

www.globalconstruction2030.com

Brazil: Growth Rates for

Construction Output 2005-2030 Average annual % change

Source: Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics

www.globalconstruction2030.com

© Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics

9,6

0,0

2,9

1,8

-1,3 -0,7

3,2

1,9

5,5

-2,2

3,2

1,8

5,3

-1,1

3,1

1,8

-4,0

0,0

4,0

8,0

12,0

2005-14 2014-20 2020-25 2025-30

Housing Non-Housing Infrastructure Total

Mexico: Growth Rates for

Construction Output 2005-2030 Average annual % change

Source: Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics

www.globalconstruction2030.com

© Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics

0,7

3,0

2,4

3,2

1,0

3,3

4,1

3,3 3,4

0,2

2,4

3,2

1,6

2,2

3,0 3,2

0,0

4,0

8,0

2005-14 2014-20 2020-25 2025-30

Housing Non-Housing Infrastructure Total

Colombia: Growth Rates for

Construction Output 2005-2030 Average annual % change

Source: Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics

www.globalconstruction2030.com

© Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics

7,8

2,6 3,4 3,2

0,0

4,0

8,0

12,0

2005-14 2014-20 2020-25 2025-30

Total

Argentina: Growth Rates for

Construction Output 2005-2030 Average annual % change

Source: Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics

www.globalconstruction2030.com

© Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics

3,0

1,0

3,1

2,5

0,0

4,0

2005-14 2014-20 2020-25 2025-30

Total

Chile: Growth Rates for

Construction Output 2005-2030 Average annual % change

Source: Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics

www.globalconstruction2030.com

© Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics

3,0 3,2 3,1 2,8

4,4

2,4

3,1 3,5 3,6

0,2

3,2 3,5 3,7

2,2

3,1 3,3

0,0

4,0

8,0

2005-14 2014-20 2020-25 2025-30

Housing Non-Housing Infrastructure Total

Peru: Growth Rates for

Construction Output 2005-2030 Average annual % change

Source: Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics

www.globalconstruction2030.com

© Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics

11,3

0,0

4,4 4,0

0,0

4,0

8,0

12,0

2005-14 2014-20 2020-25 2025-30

Total

Regional Summary 2014-2030 Average annual % change

Source: Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics

www.globalconstruction2030.com

© Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics

1,5

2,7

1,5

2,1 2,1

5,4

3,7

4,3

0,0

1,0

2,0

3,0

4,0

5,0

6,0

Western Europe

Latin America

Eastern Europe

Asia Pacific (Developed)

North America

Sub-Saharan Africa

Middle East North Africa

Asia Pacific (Emerging)