Post on 10-Feb-2022
4 June 2020
Macro
| F
X R
ese
arc
h &
Str
ate
gy
Glo
bal
SEE PAGE 15 FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
Global Markets Daily
Glass Half Full
Sentiment Still Buoyed by Data Improvement
Sentiment was buoyant for much of overnight session, keeping the
USDJPY close to the 109-figure. The US data released was better than
expected with ADP employment declines a fraction of consensus at -
2.76mn (vs. expected -9mn). US services PMI for May was a tad stronger
at 37.5 (vs. prev. 36.9). ISM Non-mfg was up at 45.4 vs. previous 41.8.
Market players largely ignored the Apr factory orders that declined
steeply by -13.0%m/m and the durable goods orders that fell -17.7%. The
DXY touched a low of 97.18 but shows signs of turning higher as bears run
into fatigue.
Oil falters; BoC Stands Pat; US’ Tit For Tat
Crude oil prices fell a tad overnight upon whispers that the Saudi-Russia
agreement on production cut extension for 1 month is conditional on
non-compliant members making deeper cuts in order to make up for past
non-compliance. USDCAD was whippy, drifting higher before the BoC’s
revision of its growth forecast (higher) brought it back towards day low.
The central bank kept its target overnight rate unchanged at 0.25% and
reduced frequency of its term repo operations to once a week and its
program to buy bankers’ acceptances to bi-weekly. In the meantime, the
US has suspended Chinese carrier flights from flying to the US according
to the US Transportation Department as China has not given permission
for US airline flights.
ECB decides on monetary settings; TH CPI, MY Trade
ECB decides on monetary settings today but we anticipate policy to be at
status quo. Other data due from the region includes Thailand’s CPI and
Malaysia’s trade data.
Implied USD/SGD Estimates at 4 June 2020, 9.00am
Upper Band Limit Mid-Point Lower Band Limit
1.3760 1.4040 1.4321
Analysts
G7: Events & Market Closure
Date Ctry Event
1 Jun AU, NZ Market Closure
2 Jun AU RBA Policy Decision
3 Jun CA BOC Policy Decision
4 Jun EU ECB Policy Decision
AXJ: Events & Market Closure
Date Ctry Event
1 Jun ID Market Closure
3 Jun TH Market Closure
Saktiandi Supaat
(65) 6320 1379
saktiandi@maybank.com.sg
Fiona Lim
(65) 6320 1374
fionalim@maybank.com.sg
Christopher Wong
(65) 6320 1347
wongkl@maybank.com.sg
Tan Yanxi
(65) 6320 1378
tanyx@maybank.com.sg
MajorsPrev
Close% Chg Asian FX
Prev
Close% Chg
EUR/USD 1.1233 0.56 USD/SGD 1.3979 -0.18
GBP/USD 1.2575 0.19 EUR/SGD 1.5703 0.40
AUD/USD 0.6921 0.35 JPY/SGD 1.2836 -0.35
NZD/USD 0.6422 0.80 GBP/SGD 1.7577 0.00
USD/JPY 108.9 0.20 AUD/SGD 0.9676 0.21
EUR/JPY 122.34 0.79 NZD/SGD 0.8981 0.71
USD/CHF 0.9612 -0.12 CHF/SGD 1.4545 -0.01
USD/CAD 1.3495 -0.18 CAD/SGD 1.0358 0.00
USD/MYR 4.262 -0.34 SGD/MYR 3.051 -0.08
USD/THB 31.552 0.00 SGD/IDR 10111.68 -1.51
USD/IDR 14095 -2.22 SGD/PHP 35.8839 0.16
USD/PHP 50.109 -0.48 SGD/CNY 5.098 0.55
FX: Overnight Closing Prices
4 June 2020 2
FX Research & Strategy
G7 Currencies
DXY Index – Bears to Pause for Breath. USD found some support
after falling for 5 consecutive sessions to Mar levels. Last seen at
97.50 Bearish momentum on daily chart remains intact but RSI
shows sign of turning higher from near oversold conditions. Expect
USD bears to pause for now (in terms of momentum), potentially
consolidating in 97.20 – 97.80 range as we look to add to shorts on
rally. Resistance at 97.8 (61.8% fibo retracement of 2020 low to
high), 98.50 (200 DMA). Support at 97.20 (yest low), 96.60 levels
(76.4% fibo). This week brings Trade, Jobless claims (Apr) on Thu;
NFP, Unemployment rate, wage growth (May) on Fri. While USD
could still find support in times of risk aversion, US-China
geopolitical tensions (overnight saw response from US to ban
passenger flights from China as China refuse to let US airlines
resume flights to China as its pandemic subsides), we reiterate our
bias for weaker USD on - US is facing domestic problems at home
including violent street protests over police brutality, still a covid-
19 epicentre, potential political risks in the lead up to US
Presidential elections in Nov 2020, massive and increasing Fed’s
balance sheet amid QE, deteriorating twin deficits as well as
chatters of reserve diversification/reallocation away from USD as
well as countercyclical factor kicking in - as the world economy
picks up, cyclical proxy FX such as AUD, AXJs will strengthen while
USD weakens.
EURUSD – ECB in Focus. EUR rose overnight in response to Merkel’s
coalition agreement on another EUR130bn stimulus targeted to
spur short term consumer spending, get business to restart
investments, built 5G networks, improve railways and incentives
for Electric Vehicles – with a view to commit to the future. Some
key highlights include VAT cuts to 16%, from 19% through the end-
2020 (estimated to cost EUR20bn), bridge financing for SMEs of as
much as EUR25bn, accelerating EUR10bn in investment in digital,
security and defense projects. This round of package exceeded the
top end of expectations by 30% and the 2 packages (one was agreed
earlier in Mar) represent about EUR1.3tn of stimulus. Day ahead
brings ECB meeting decision - we expect the ECB to keep key policy
rates on hold at the upcoming GC: MRO at 0%, average deposit
facility at -0.5%. We expect rates to stay low at current levels to
support growth and inflation. We reiterate that there is no
incentive for ECB to reduce rate further given that rates are
already near lower bound and there is diminishing marginal returns
to lower them further (cost outweighs benefits). ECB is likely to
fall back on policy mix of unconventional monetary pools and push
for fiscal measures to support growth while keeping rates low (but
short of cutting rates further). The intent of policy at this point is
to reduce fragmentation in the Euro-area, narrow credit spreads
and keep the flow of funds going and to support businesses’ needs.
We expect some tweaks to the size of the EUR750bn Pandemic
Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP), likely to be enlarged to
EUR1tn region especially after Lagarde’s announcement that ECB
will purchase junk-rated bonds. Market expectations are
somewhere between EUR1-1.25tn – representing a EUR250-500bn
4 June 2020 3
FX Research & Strategy
expansion. EUR was last seen at 1.1220 levels. Bullish momentum
on daily chart intact while RSI is rising into overbought conditions.
We do not rule out short term retracement but likely to be shallow
towards support at 1.1170 (61.8% fibo retracement of 2020 high to
low), 1.1120, 1.1075 levels (50% fibo). Next resistance at 1.1260,
1.13 (76.4% fibo retracement of 2020 high to low). This week brings
Retail sales (Apr); ECB Policy meeting decision on Thu; German
factory orders (Apr) on Fri.
GBPUSD – Correction Risks. GBP eased from its highs after BoE
reiterated that lenders should prepare for the possibility of no-deal
post Brexit transition. GBP was last seen at 1.2540 levels. Mild
bullish momentum on daily chart intact while RSI is turning from
overbought conditions. Support at 1.2360/80 (23.6% fibo
retracement of Mar low to Apr-May double top, 50 DMA).
Resistance at 1.2570 (100 DMA), 1.2660/70 (200 DMA, Mar-Apr
high). This week brings Services PMI (May) on Wed; Construction
PMI (May) on Thu; GfK consumer confidence (May) on Fri.
USDJPY – Caution on Retracement. Pair remained largely where it
was yesterday morning. Last seen at 108.82. The US is barring
Chinese airlines as Beijing had rejected the requests of US carriers
to resume flights to China. The news was positive for US airline
shares, but likely negative for broader global sentiment. In the
meantime, 109.20 (23.6% fibo retracement from Mar low to high)
might be the next key resistance to watch. If that breaks, next
strong resistance is some way off at 111.70. Nonetheless, with
stochastics entering near-overbought conditions, there is a fair
chance that up-moves could slow, or we could see some modest
retracement lower. In that case, support is at 108.40 (200-DMA)
before 107.70 (38.2% fibo), 106.40 (50% fibo). Apr leading index
due Fri.
NZDUSD – RSI Overbought. NZD was last seen at 0.6415 levels.
Bullish momentum intact but RSI shows signs of turning lower from
overbought conditions. Tactically we look for a pullback lower.
Support at 0.6360, 0.6320 (200 DMA). Resistance at 0.6450 (76.4%
fibo retracement of 2020 high to low) before 0.66 levels. This week
brings Commodity Price (May) on Fri.
AUDUSD – Doji. AUD was propelled higher yesterday but bulls seem
to be overcome by fatigue into the latter part of the session, in
contrast to the US stock indices that closed near record high.
AUDUSD was last seen around the 0.69-figure and we see a bearish
divergence that could be played out this time. Three peaks of the
AUDUSD (Apr, May and Jun) were matched by lower peaks in MACD
forest. We look for a corrective play lower towards 0.6450. Interim
support around 0.6670 (200-dma before the next at 0.6450 (61.8%
Fibonacci retracement of the Jan-Mar fall). At home, the Australian
Council of Social Service criticized the government’s plan to
provide large grants to home builders and renovators as there is
still “the backlog of urgent social housing repairs and a shortfall in
social housing stock”. Week remaining has Trade (Apr) on Thu; FX
reserves (May) on Fri.
4 June 2020 4
FX Research & Strategy
USDCAD – Faltering in the Face of 200-dma. Strong risk appetite
continues to keep the USDCAD a tad pressured to the downside but
bears failed to break through the 200-dma, last seen around
1.3510. Oil prices have been firming with WTI seen above the
$38/bbl momentarily until news cited sources saying that the
Saudi-Russia agreement on production cut extension for 1 month is
conditional on non-compliant members making deeper cuts in order
to make up for past non-compliance. The Saudi Arabia has
proposed to move the OPEC meeting to mid-June to allow time to
review May production and compliance data. News flow swung the
USDCAD but resilient risk sentiment as well as BoC’s decision to
keep overnight target rate unchanged at 0.25% and scale back
some of its OMO supported the CAD. The central bank statement
(guided by Poloz for the last time) also saw a revision in the growth
outlook as “the Canadian economy appears to have avoided the
most severe scenario” in the Apr MPR. The contraction in 2Q is
expected to be 10-20% instead of the previous forecasted decline
of 15-30%. The central bank reduced frequency of its term repo
operations to once a week and its program to buy bankers’
acceptances to bi-weekly. Back on the USDCAD chart, the recent
breakout of the descending triangle could bring this pair through
the 200-dma at 1.3450 and the textbook target is 1.3070. However,
we do not rule out some retracement in the interim as 200-dma has
proved to be a strong support at 1.3460. Stochastics show signs of
turning higher from oversold conditions as well although MACD
suggests bearish momentum still. Retracement towards 1.3610
(61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the Jan- Mar rally) cannot be
ruled out before the next resistance is seen around 1.3738 (100-
dma). Week remaining has Apr trade data today and May labour
report tomorrow.
4 June 2020 5
FX Research & Strategy
Asia ex Japan Currencies
SGD trades around +0.40% from the implied mid-point of 1.4040 with the
top estimated at 1.3760 and the floor at 1.4321.
USDSGD – Bearish Still. Pair traded largely ranged yesterday. Last
seen at 1.3990. Bearish trend channel remains intact. Upside risks
for the pair are if global risk sentiments turn negative (starting
with US-China spat on airlines), and dollar stages a recovery. On
net though, we remain bearish on the pair. On daily chart,
momentum is bearish and stochastics are on the dip towards near-
oversold conditions. Resistance nearby at 1.4000, before 1.4100
(61.8% fibo retracement of Mar low to high), 1.4200 (50-DMA).
Support 1.3850 (200-DMA), 1.3760 (Mar low).
SGDMYR – Watching if Trend Breaks. SGDMYR was last seen at
3.05 levels. Daily momentum remains mild bearish while RSI is
falling. We said to respect the bullish trend channel till it breaks (or
closes below) – and this deserves monitoring. Trend ain’t your
friend if it breaks. Immediate support at 3.04 (200 DMA), 3.03 (50%
fibo retracement of 2020 low to high). Resistance at 3.0530/560 (50
DMA, lower bound of trend channel), 3.0610 (21 DMA).
USDMYR – Consolidate. Decline in USDMYR slowed. Pair was last
seen at 4.2675 levels. Bearish momentum intact but RSI shows signs
of turning from near oversold conditions. Consolidation likely.
Immediate support at 4.25 levels (50% fibo retracement of 2020 low
to high, 100 DMA). Resistance at 4.2950 levels (38.2% fibo), 4.3320
(21 DMA). We look for 4.25 – 4.28 range intra-day. Trade data due
for release on Thu and FX reserves on Fri.
1m USDKRW NDF – Range. 1m USDKRW NDF was last seen at 1217
levels. Mild bearish momentum on daily chart intact but RSI shows
signs of turning higher. Expect some consolidation intra-day in the
range of 1214 – 1220. We still cautioned for sino-US tension risks
(and its potential negative repercussion on KRW, typically more
sensitive to news flow) but acknowledged that broad USD weakness
and risk-on sentiment appear to offset any KRW downside risks for
now.
AUDSGD – AUDSGD – Bearish Divergence. Last seen at 0.9660, the
cross has also formed a doji yesterday and could be poised to come
off soon. Bearish divergence could play out. Only a clearance of the
21-dma at 0.9234 can nullify the recent uptrend. Price action has
added some confirmation to the bearish divergence that could play
out. Resistance at 0.9810 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2017-
2020 fall). Support at 0.9460 (50% fibo), 0.9350.
USDCNH – Eye 7.1050 Still, But Consolidative Action Likely. This
pair dropped under 7.10-figure at one point yesterday before rising
again back within the 7.10-7.20 band. 7.1050, marked by the 50-
dma, has proven to be a key support level and we continue to watch
that. The US has suspended Chinese carrier flights from flying to the
US according to the US Transportation Department as China has not
4 June 2020 6
FX Research & Strategy
given permission for US airline flights. Consolidation under the
7.1650 could nullify the ascending triangle and form a rising wedge
instead with lower bound guided by the 50-dma. We stand by the
view that USDCNH has to break the 7.1050 for the double top to
play out. At this point, more consolidative action is likely and risks
are tilted to the upside. Momentum indicators are lacking
directional cues.
1M USDIDR NDF – Signs of Upward Correction. NDF last seen at
14,200, having continued its down-move yesterday. Global risk
sentiments (which typically influences flows into assets including
IDR bonds) was benign for most of the week. A bond sale on Tues
saw a record IDR103.62tn of bids for a IDR24tn sale, excluding bills.
Nonetheless, we note more “points” of conflict between US and
China. The latest spat is over US’ barring of China airlines after
Beijing rejected US carriers’ requests to resume flights to China.
Key risks at this point are escalations in domestic contagion or US-
Sino tensions. Barring these risks, BI Governor Warjiyo commented
earlier that the IDR has the potential to strengthen to pre-pandemic
levels of around 13600-800, once investors’ risk appetite returns to
normal. Nonetheless, path could be rocky; NDF sees signs of jerking
upwards this morning. On daily chart, momentum indicator is mildly
bearish while stochastics are in oversold conditions. Support at
14,000, 13800, 13,600. Resistance at 14,500 (200-DMA), 15,000
(61.8% fibo retracement from Jan low to Mar high), 15,420 (50.0%
fibo).
USDTHB – Bearish Momentum Waning. Pair last seen at 31.58,
having largely traded ranged yesterday. BoT has summoned FX
dealers to meet today to discuss the THB’s recent gains, which it
considers to be out of line with economic fundamentals. Gold
dealers’ transactions will also be examined for compliance—gold
trading has been partly associated with recent THB strength.
Concerns over political uncertainty may weigh on sentiments a tad,
as more than half of Palang Pracharath party’s (party leading
Thailand’s ruling coalition) executive committee resigned on Mon,
which may induce changes in cabinet roles. Pair may hover near key
pivot at 31.60 (50.0% fibo retracement from 2020 low to high) for
now, or potentially recover higher. Next support at 31.20 (61.8%
fibo). Resistance at 32.00 (21-DMA), 32.40 (23.6% fibo). Momentum
on daily chart is mildly bearish, while stochastics remain in oversold
conditions.
1M USDPHP NDF – Risks Skewed to Upside. NDF last seen at 50.0,
having declined by about 1% thus far this week on broad dollar
weakness and positive global sentiments. BSP Governor Diokno says
the central bank is “happy where the current policy rate is” (i.e.,
2.75% after 125bps cuts this year). Developments in lockdown
loosening are largely akin to that of regional peers. We expect the
NDF to be more influenced by broad dollar moves in the interim,
and technical indicators suggest risks may be skewed to the upside
for now—tentative signs of bullish divergence on MACD and
stochastics are near oversold conditions. Next support at 49.7 (2018
low), before 49.0. Resistance at 50.60 (21-DMA), 50.95 (100-DMA).
4 June 2020 7
FX Research & Strategy
Malaysia Fixed Income
Rates Indicators
MGS Previous Bus. Day Yesterday’s Close Change (bps)
3YR MH 3/23 2.28 2.27 -1
5YR MO 9/25 2.47 2.48 +1
7YR MK 5/27 2.65 2.65 Unchanged
10YR MO 8/29 2.84 2.85 +1
15YR MS 7/34 3.19 3.19 Unchanged
20YR MY 5/40 3.45 3.44 -1
30YR MZ 7/48 3.80 3.85 +5
IRS
6-months 2.18 2.18 -
9-months 2.14 2.14 -
1-year 2.12 2.13 +1
3-year 2.14 2.14 -
5-year 2.27 2.30 +3
7-year 2.43 2.43 -
10-year 2.65 2.65 -
Source: Maybank KE
*Indicative levels
Global: Export Growth (% YoY,
Ringgit government bond yields moved rangebound mostly in the
+2bps to -3bps range, except for 30y MGS which ended 5bps higher
from its last traded level two days ago. Lifers continued to buy off-
the-run bonds selectively, though there was also some foreign
selling. It did not affect the 3y GII 5/23 reopening which garnered a
strong 2.50x bid/cover, supported by local trading accounts, and an
average yield of 2.306%. Post auction, 3y GII traded in a tight range
of 2.32-31% with some investor likely taking profit.
The MYR IRS market was in a lull for the first half of the day until a
foreign name consecutively took offers on the 5y IRS at 2.29-30%.
This sent rates at the belly of curve up 1-3bps. 3M KLIBOR came off
1bp to 2.28%.
PDS market activity picked up and were marginally firmer, with GG
yields flat to -1bp along the belly and long end of the curve. The
short end, however, was better offered and yields rose about 2-3bps
higher. Market appears to be less averse to duration risk as better
external risk sentiment continues to hold. AAA levels unchanged
with trades at the belly area, though Danga 2027 traded about 2bps
lower in yield. AA and lower credit spaces were quiet again and
mainly saw retail interests.
Analysts
Winson Phoon
(65) 6812 8807
winsonphoon@maybank-ke.com.sg
Se Tho Mun Yi
(603) 2074 7606
munyi.st@maybank-ib.com
4 June 2020 8
FX Research & Strategy
Singapore Fixed Income
Rates Indicators
SGS Previous Bus. Day Yesterday’s Close Change (bps)
2YR 0.29 0.31 +2
5YR 0.47 0.51 +4
10YR 0.85 0.92 +7
15YR 1.16 1.22 +6
20YR 1.24 1.29 +5
30YR 1.24 1.31 +7
Source: MAS
Another day of strong risk sentiment drove SGD rates and SGS yields
higher, spiking as much as 10-12bps before normalizing in the
afternoon. SGD IRS curve bear-steepened again and rose further by
2-8bps. SGS yield curve shifted higher by roughly the same
magnitude and in a mild steepening bias.
Asian credits strengthened further with strong demand for China, HK
and India IGs. India credits rebounded to rally 5-10bps tighter, while
China and HK credits tightened 3-8bps and saw new issuances such
as Tencent outperform. Sovereigns bonds such as INDONs and
PHILIPs saw better bids for their off-the-runs and the curves
tightened 3-7bps. Malaysian corporate USD paper TNBMK 2026
continued to see selling interests while its 2028 saw better buying
again, and PETMK tightened 5bps as crude oil prices edged higher.
4 June 2020 9
FX Research & Strategy
Indonesia Fixed Income
Rates Indicators
IDR Gov’t Bonds Previous Bus. Day Yesterday’s Close Change
(bp) Analysts
1YR 5.41 5.26 (0.15) Myrdal Gunarto
3YR 6.35 6.24 (0.11) (62) 21 2922 8888 ext 29695
5YR 6.65 6.49 (0.16) MGunarto@maybank.co.id
10YR 7.15 7.00 (0.15)
15YR 7.70 7.52 (0.19)
20YR 7.70 7.55 (0.15)
30YR 7.89 7.82 (0.08)
* Source: Bloomberg, Maybank Indonesia
Global: Export Growth (% YoY,signif
Indonesian government bonds were still on the rally trends yesterday.
Investors took positive momentum for coming back to Indonesian
financial markets after seeing recent positive progress on the global
“new normal” in both global and domestic side. President Joko Widodo
stated that the government is seeking ways to immediately implement
recovery programs in an attempt to anticipate growth contraction in 2Q
to 4Q. Quick implementation of the economic recovery programs is the
country’s biggest challenge, Widodo, known as Jokowi said in cabinet
meeting on Wednesday. Jokowi orders ministers to start drafting burden
sharing concept between the government, Bank Indonesia, Financial
Services Authority, banking sector and businesses for economic recovery
and minimizing massive unemployment triggered by the pandemic. The
2020 state budget must be credible, prudent, transparent and
accountable to avoid moral hazard, while ministers have been asked to
carefully calculate fiscal risks that emerges from rising spending.
Indonesia’s fiscal deficit ratio is now projected to widen to 6.34% of
gross domestic product, Ministry of Sri Mulyani Indrawati recently stated.
That’s the latest of several revisions since the government announced
just over two months ago that it was suspending its 3% ceiling. It will
consequently add more supply of government bonds in the domestic
market. Therefore, we foresee that it will restrain aggressive rally on
Indonesian government bond market during this year. Indrawati said this
year’s fiscal deficit is expected to reach Rp1,039.2 trillion, compared to
the previous estimate of Rp1,033 trillion. She said the government has
earmarked Rp677.2 trillion for virus relief. Furthermore, Bank Indonesia
has bought Rp26 trillion (US$1.8 trillion) in bonds from the primary
market since 21 Apr-20, Governor Perry Warjiyo said Wednesday. The
central bank’s policy arsenal would continue to be aimed at supporting
the recovery, including maintaining confidence among investors, Warjiyo
said.
Going forward, we believe that Indonesia’s government bond is a good
option amidst other investment assets in the emerging countries during
current pandemic Coronavirus condition. Nevertheless, we also warn
investors to keep underlining current high volatility conditions due
recent intensifying geopolitical tensions, such as conflict between the
United States against China, and instability security condition in Hong
Kong due to massive demonstration.
4 June 2020 10
FX Research & Strategy
Equity Indices and Key Commodities
Value % C hange
D o w 26,269.89 2.05
N asdaq 9,682.91 0.78
N ikkei 225 22,613.76 1.29
F T SE 6,382.41 2.61
A ustralia A SX 200 5,941.60 1.83
Singapo re Straits
T imes2,700.39 3.40
Kuala Lumpur
C o mpo site1,538.53 2.05
Jakarta C o mpo site 4,941.01 1.93
P hilippines
C o mpo site6,245.65 3.66
T aiwan T A IEX 11,320.16 1.73
Ko rea KOSP I 2,147.00 2.87
Shanghai C o mp Index 2,923.37 0.07
H o ng Ko ng H ang
Seng24,325.62 1.37
India Sensex 34,109.54 0.84
N ymex C rude Oil WT I 37.29 1.30
C o mex Go ld 1,704.80 -1.68
R euters C R B Index 135.01 0.67
M B B KL 7.98 6.26
Foreign Exchange: Daily LevelsEUR/USD USD/JPY AUD/USD GBP/USD USD/CNH NZD/USD EUR/JPY AUD/JPY
R2 1.1309 109.33 0.7046 1.2647 7.1501 0.6493 123.4267 76.5397
R1 1.1271 109.11 0.6984 1.2611 7.1336 0.6457 122.8833 75.9553
Current 1.1221 108.92 0.6900 1.2540 7.1333 0.6418 122.2000 75.1420
S1 1.1181 108.55 0.6858 1.2543 7.0943 0.6373 121.5333 74.5983
S2 1.1129 108.21 0.6794 1.2511 7.0715 0.6325 120.7267 73.8257
USD/SGD USD/MYR USD/IDR USD/PHP USD/THB EUR/SGD CNY/MYR SGD/MYR
R2 1.4042 4.2890 14279 50.2650 31.6860 1.5776 0.6017 3.0632
R1 1.4011 4.2755 14187 50.1870 31.6190 1.5740 0.6004 3.0571
Current 1.3994 4.2700 14140 50.0000 31.6460 1.5701 0.5989 3.0521
S1 1.3950 4.2495 14049 50.0680 31.4930 1.5647 0.5979 3.0428
S2 1.3920 4.2370 14003 50.0270 31.4340 1.5590 0.5967 3.0346
*Values calculated based on pivots, a formula that projects support/resistance for the day.
Rates Current (%)Upcoming CB
MeetingMBB Expectation
MAS SGD 3-Month
SIBOR0.5597 Oct-20 Easing
BNM O/N Policy Rate 2.00 7/7/2020 Easing
BI 7-Day Reverse Repo
Rate4.50 18/6/2020 Easing
BOT 1-Day Repo 0.50 24/6/2020 Easing
BSP O/N Reverse Repo 2.75 25/6/2020 Easing
CBC Discount Rate 1.13 18/6/2020 Easing
HKMA Base Rate 0.55 - Neutral
PBOC 1Y Lending Rate 4.35 - Easing
RBI Repo Rate 4.00 6/8/2020 Easing
BOK Base Rate 0.50 16/7/2020 Easing
Fed Funds Target Rate 0.25 11/6/2020 Easing
ECB Deposit Facility
Rate-0.50 4/6/2020 Easing
BOE Official Bank Rate 0.10 18/6/2020 Easing
RBA Cash Rate Target 0.25 7/7/2020 Easing
RBNZ Official Cash Rate 0.25 24/6/2020 Easing
BOJ Rate -0.10 16/6/2020 Easing
BoC O/N Rate 0.25 3/6/2020 Easing
Policy Rates
4 June 2020 11
FX Research & Strategy
MYR Bonds Trades Details
MGS & GII Coupon Maturity
Date Volume (RM ‘m)
Last Done Day High Day Low
MGS 6/2013 3.889% 31.07.2020 3.889% 31-Jul-20 355 1.997 2.049 1.953
MGS 3/2015 3.659% 15.10.2020 3.659% 15-Oct-20 280 2.015 2.041 2.001
MGS 5/2017 3.441% 15.02.2021 3.441% 15-Feb-21 680 2.02 2.02 2.015
MGS 1/2011 4.16% 15.07.2021 4.160% 15-Jul-21 15 2.097 2.097 2.08
MGS 3/2014 4.048% 30.09.2021 4.048% 30-Sep-21 14 2.075 2.075 2.071
MGS 4/2016 3.620% 30.11.2021 3.620% 30-Nov-21 7 2.099 2.099 2.086
MGS 1/2017 3.882% 10.03.2022 3.882% 10-Mar-22 424 2.178 2.189 2.13
MGS 1/2012 3.418% 15.08.2022 3.418% 15-Aug-22 13 2.199 2.199 2.188
MGS 2/2015 3.795% 30.09.2022 3.795% 30-Sep-22 11 2.207 2.207 2.196
MGS 3/2013 3.480% 15.03.2023 3.480% 15-Mar-23 202 2.272 2.272 2.225
MGS 2/2018 3.757% 20.04.2023 3.757% 20-Apr-23 21 2.296 2.296 2.262
MGS 1/2016 3.800% 17.08.2023 3.800% 17-Aug-23 3 2.335 2.335 2.335
MGS 3/2019 3.478% 14.06.2024 3.478% 14-Jun-24 17 2.396 2.396 2.396
MGS 1/2014 4.181% 15.07.2024 4.181% 15-Jul-24 20 2.478 2.478 2.415
MGS 2/2017 4.059% 30.09.2024 4.059% 30-Sep-24 12 2.451 2.451 2.426
MGS 1/2015 3.955% 15.09.2025 3.955% 15-Sep-25 139 2.482 2.482 2.467
MGS 1/2019 3.906% 15.07.2026 3.906% 15-Jul-26 19 2.665 2.665 2.651
MGS 3/2016 3.900% 30.11.2026 3.900% 30-Nov-26 1 2.649 2.649 2.649
MGS 3/2007 3.502% 31.05.2027 3.502% 31-May-27 2 2.658 2.658 2.653
MGS 4/2017 3.899% 16.11.2027 3.899% 16-Nov-27 82 2.777 2.79 2.737
MGS 5/2013 3.733% 15.06.2028 3.733% 15-Jun-28 81 2.843 2.885 2.843
MGS 2/2019 3.885% 15.08.2029 3.885% 15-Aug-29 369 2.85 3.082 2.808
MGS 3/2010 4.498% 15.04.2030 4.498% 15-Apr-30 40 3.001 3.001 3
MGS 4/2012 4.127% 15.04.2032 4.127% 15-Apr-32 10 3.208 3.208 3.208
MGS 4/2013 3.844% 15.04.2033 3.844% 15-Apr-33 1 3.25 3.25 3.25
MGS 3/2018 4.642% 07.11.2033 4.642% 07-Nov-33 50 3.296 3.296 3.288
MGS 4/2019 3.828% 05.07.2034 3.828% 05-Jul-34 6 3.189 3.189 3.189
MGS 4/2015 4.254% 31.05.2035 4.254% 31-May-35 3 3.377 3.377 3.377
MGS 3/2017 4.762% 07.04.2037 4.762% 07-Apr-37 15 3.461 3.461 3.39
MGS 4/2018 4.893% 08.06.2038 4.893% 08-Jun-38 10 3.502 3.502 3.502
MGS 5/2019 3.757% 22.05.2040 3.757% 22-May-40 1 3.437 3.437 3.437
MGS 2/2016 4.736% 15.03.2046 4.736% 15-Mar-46 10 3.872 3.872 3.843
MGS 5/2018 4.921% 06.07.2048 4.921% 06-Jul-48 48 3.864 3.864 3.825
GII MURABAHAH 6/2013 23.03.2021 3.716% 23-Mar-21 45 2.089 2.089 2.039
PROFIT-BASED GII 3/2011 30.04.2021 4.170% 30-Apr-21 100 2.062 2.062 2.062 GII MURABAHAH 4/2018 3.729% 31.03.2022 3.729% 31-Mar-22 10 2.206 2.206 2.206 GII MURABAHAH 3/2017 3.948% 14.04.2022 3.948% 14-Apr-22 1 2.188 2.188 2.188 GII MURABAHAH 7/2019 3.151% 15.05.2023 3.151% 15-May-23 1,075 2.307 2.342 2.303 GII MURABAHAH 1/2016 4.390% 07.07.2023 4.390% 07-Jul-23 20 2.35 2.35 2.35
PROFIT-BASED GII 2/2013 31.10.2023 3.493% 31-Oct-23 20 2.361 2.361 2.361 GII MURABAHAH 3/2018 4.094% 30.11.2023 4.094% 30-Nov-23 180 2.387 2.394 2.382
GII MURABAHAH 8/2013 22.05.2024 4.444% 22-May-24 100 2.446 2.446 2.446 GII MURABAHAH 2/2017 4.045% 15.08.2024 4.045% 15-Aug-24 50 2.484 2.484 2.484 GII MURABAHAH 4/2019 3.655% 15.10.2024 3.655% 15-Oct-24 119 2.483 2.51 2.483 GII MURABAHAH 1/2018 4.128% 15.08.2025 4.128% 15-Aug-25 3 2.56 2.56 2.56 GII MURABAHAH 2/2018 4.369% 31.10.2028 4.369% 31-Oct-28 36 2.926 2.93 2.917
GII MURABAHAH 1/2019 4.130% 4.130% 09-Jul-29 69 2.92 2.926 2.92
4 June 2020 12
FX Research & Strategy
09.07.2029
GII MURABAHAH 2/2020 3.465% 15.10.2030 3.465% 15-Oct-30 3 2.703 2.703 2.703 GII MURABAHAH 6/2019 4.119% 30.11.2034 4.119% 30-Nov-34 30 3.273 3.273 3.26
Total 4,820
Sources: BPAM
4 June 2020 13
FX Research & Strategy
MYR Bonds Trades Details
PDS Rating Coupon Maturity
Date Volume (RM ‘m)
Last Done
Day High
Day Low
KHAZANAH 0% 08.03.2021 GG 0.000% 08-Mar-21 40 2.185 2.199 2.185
DANAINFRA IMTN 4.230% 23.07.2021 - Tranche No 20 GG 4.230% 23-Jul-21 5 2.237 2.237 2.237
PRASARANA IMTN 0% 04.08.2021 - MTN 3 GG 4.150% 04-Aug-21 110 2.198 2.198 2.198
PASB IMTN (GG) 4.23% 16.06.2023 - Issue No. 25 GG 4.230% 16-Jun-23 55 2.549 2.549 2.549
LPPSA IMTN 3.830% 21.09.2023 - Tranche No 3 GG 3.830% 21-Sep-23 70 2.551 2.551 2.551
DANAINFRA IMTN 4.210% 31.10.2023 - Tranche No 10 GG 4.210% 31-Oct-23 30 2.554 2.554 2.554
LPPSA IMTN 4.320% 04.04.2025 - Tranche No 19 GG 4.320% 04-Apr-25 20 2.729 2.729 2.729
PTPTN IMTN 12.03.2027 GG 4.450% 12-Mar-27 15 3 3 3
LPPSA IMTN 4.580% 16.04.2027 - Tranche No 9 GG 4.580% 16-Apr-27 85 2.997 3 2.997
PRASARANA SUKUK MURABAHAH 4.00% 06.09.2027 - T2 GG 4.000% 06-Sep-27 30 3 3 3
DANAINFRA IMTN 3.470% 26.09.2029 - Tranche 12 GG 3.470% 26-Sep-29 15 3.15 3.15 3.15
PRASARANA IMTN 4.97% 11.12.2030 - Series 4 GG 4.970% 11-Dec-30 70 3.19 3.19 3.187
PLUS BERHAD IMTN 4.860% 12.01.2038 - Series 1 GG 4.860% 12-Jan-38 60 3.59 3.61 3.59
PRASARANA IMTN 3.800% 25.02.2050- Series 5 GG 3.800% 25-Feb-50 20 3.967 3.973 3.967
CAGAMAS MTN 4.100% 08.10.2021 AAA 4.100% 08-Oct-21 40 2.503 2.503 2.503
CAGAMAS IMTN 4.080% 08.10.2021 AAA 4.080% 08-Oct-21 20 2.503 2.503 2.503
CAGAMAS IMTN 3.500% 12.08.2022 AAA 3.500% 12-Aug-22 60 2.616 2.616 2.616
DANUM IMTN 2.970% 13.05.2025 - Tranche 7 AAA (S) 2.970% 13-May-25 5 2.969 2.971 2.969
PLUS BERHAD IMTN 4.800% 12.01.2027 - Series 1 (11) AAA IS 4.800% 12-Jan-27 4 3.189 3.191 3.189
DANUM IMTN 3.140% 13.05.2027 - Tranche 8 AAA (S) 3.140% 13-May-27 5 3.149 3.15 3.149
DANGA IMTN 4.520% 06.09.2027 - Tranche 7 AAA (S) 4.520% 06-Sep-27 20 3.188 3.192 3.188
PLUS BERHAD IMTN 4.880% 12.01.2028 - Series 1 (12) AAA IS 4.880% 12-Jan-28 1 3.269 3.271 3.269
TELEKOM IMTN 31.10.2028 AAA 4.680% 31-Oct-28 20 3.265 3.281 3.265
SEB IMTN 4.700% 24.11.2028 AAA 4.700% 24-Nov-28 6 3.209 3.21 3.209
SEB IMTN 5.500% 04.07.2029 AAA 5.500% 04-Jul-29 34 3.229 3.25 3.229
SARAWAKHIDRO IMTN 4.56% 10.08.2029 AAA 4.560% 10-Aug-29 70 3.249 3.261 3.249
DANUM IMTN 3.290% 13.05.2030 - Tranche 9 AAA (S) 3.290% 13-May-30 5 3.31 3.311 3.31
RANTAU IMTN 0% 12.05.2031 - MTN 5 AAA (S) 5.050% 12-May-31 30 3.357 3.371 3.357
RANTAU IMTN 0% 16.01.2032 - Tranche No 10 AAA (S) 5.000% 16-Jan-32 20 3.401 3.401 3.387
TENAGA IMTN 27.08.2038 AAA 4.980% 27-Aug-38 20 3.69 3.695 3.69
CIMBBANK 4.700% 07.08.2026 - Issue No 4 AA+ 4.700% 07-Aug-26 1 3.379 4.247 3.379
KLK IMTN 3.95% 27.09.2034 - Tranche 2 AA1 3.950% 27-Sep-34 10 3.789 3.789 3.789
BENIH RESTU IMTN 4.620% 05.06.2025 AA2 (S) 4.620% 05-Jun-25 10 3.497 3.504 3.497
HLFG Tier 2 Subordinated Notes (Tranche 2) AA2 4.300% 14-Jun-29 5 3.36 3.36 3.36
EDRA ENERGY IMTN 5.820% 04.07.2025 - Tranche No 8 AA3 5.820% 04-Jul-25 1 4.481 4.485 4.481
MMC CORP IMTN 5.700% 24.03.2028 AA- IS 5.700% 24-Mar-28 1 4.397 4.474 4.397
IJM IMTN 5.050% 18.08.2028 AA3 5.050% 18-Aug-28 10 3.879 3.881 3.879
EDRA ENERGY IMTN 6.310% 05.01.2033 - Tranche No 23 AA3 6.310% 05-Jan-33 5 4.159 4.16 4.159
MAYBANK IMTN 4.080% PERPETUAL AA3 4.080% 22-Feb-17 10 3.569 3.572 3.569
CIMB 5.400% Perpetual Capital Securities - T3 A1 5.400% 25-May-16 2 4.185 4.563 4.185
MBSBBANK IMTN 5.250% 19.12.2031 A3 5.250% 19-Dec-31 10 4.592 4.592 4.569
AFFIN ISLAMIC PERPETUAL AT1 SUKUK WAKALAH (T1) A3 5.650% 18-Oct-17 20 4.349 4.349 4.349
AFFINBANK RM500M PERPETUAL AT1CS (T1) A3 5.800% 29-Jul-18 70 4.358 4.365 4.358
EWIB IMTN 6.400% 24.05.2023 NR(LT) 6.400% 24-May-23 1 5.467 5.475 5.467
MAH SING 6.900% PERPETUAL SECURITIES - SERIES NO 1 NR(LT) 6.900% 02-Apr-17 1 5.537 6.399 5.537
YNHP 6.850% PERPETUAL SECURITIES - TRANCHE NO 1 NR(LT) 6.850% 07-Aug-19 1 7.286 7.286 7.286
Total 1,141
4 June 2020 15
FX Research & Strategy
DISCLAIMER
This report is for information purposes only and under no circumstances is it to be considered or intended as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy the securities or financial instruments referred to herein, or an offer or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any investment strategy. Investors should note that income from such securities or financial instruments, if any, may fluctuate and that each security’s or financial instrument’s price or value may rise or fall. Accordingly, investors may receive back less than originally invested. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. This report is not intended to provide personal investment advice and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, the financial situation and the particular needs of persons who may receive or read this report. Investors should therefore seek financial, legal and other advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities and/or financial instruments or the investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report.
The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but such sources have not been independently verified by Malayan Banking Berhad and/or its affiliates and related corporations (collectively, “Maybank”) and consequently no representation is made as to the accuracy or completeness of this report by Maybank and it should not be relied upon as such. Accordingly, no liability can be accepted for any direct, indirect or consequential losses or damages that may arise from the use or reliance of this report. Maybank and its officers, directors, associates, connected parties and/or employees may from time to time have positions or be materially interested in the securities and/or financial instruments referred to herein and may further act as market maker or have assumed an underwriting commitment or deal with such securities and/or financial instruments and may also perform or seek to perform investment banking, advisory and other services for or relating to those companies whose securities are mentioned in this report. Any information or opinions or recommendations contained herein are subject to change at any time, without prior notice.
This report may contain forward looking statements which are often but not always identified by the use of words such as “anticipate”, “believe”, “estimate”, “intend”, “plan”, “expect”, “forecast”, “predict” and “project” and statements that an event or result “may”, “will”, “can”, “should”, “could” or “might” occur or be achieved and other similar expressions. Such forward looking statements are based on assumptions made and information currently available to us and are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause the actual results to differ materially from those expressed in any forward looking statements. Readers are cautioned not to place undue relevance on these forward looking statements. Maybank expressly disclaims any obligation to update or revise any such forward looking statements to reflect new information, events or circumstances after the date of this publication or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events.
This report is prepared for the use of Maybank’s clients and may not be reproduced, altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed to any other party in whole or in part in any form or manner without the prior express written consent of Maybank. Maybank accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties in this respect. This report is not directed to or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.
4 June 2020 16
FX Research & Strategy
Published by:
Malayan Banking Berhad (Incorporated In Malaysia)
Foreign Exchange
Sales
Singapore Indonesia Malaysia
Saktiandi Supaat Juniman Azman Amiruddin Shah bin Mohamad Shah
Head, FX Research Chief Economist, Indonesia Head, Sales-Malaysia, GB-Global Markets
saktiandi@maybank.com.sg juniman@maybank.co.id azman.shah@maybank.com
(+65) 6320 1379 (+62) 21 2922 8888 ext 29682 (+60) 03-2173 4188
Christopher Wong Myrdal Gunarto Singapore
Senior FX Strategist Industry Analyst Janice Loh Ai Lin
Wongkl@maybank.com.sg MGunarto@maybank.co.id Co-Head of Sales, Singapore
(+65) 6320 1347 (+62) 21 2922 8888 ext 29695 jloh@maybank.com.sg
(+65) 6536 1336
Fiona Lim
Senior FX Strategist Joanna Leong Wan Yi
Fionalim@maybank.com.sg Co-Head of Sales, Singapore
(+65) 6320 1374 JoannaLeong@maybank.com.sg
Yanxi Tan
(+65) 6320 1511
FX Strategist Indonesia
tanyx@maybank.com.sg Endang Yulianti Rahayu
(+65) 6320 1378 Head of Sales, Indonesia
EYRahayu@maybank.co.id
(+62) 21 29936318 or
Fixed Income (+62) 2922 8888 ext 29611
Malaysia
Winson Phoon Wai Kien
Shanghai
Fixed Income Analyst
Joyce Ha
winsonphoon@maybank-ke.com.sg
Treasury Sales Manager
(+65) 6231 5831
Joyce.ha@maybank.com
(+86) 21 28932588
Se Tho Mun Yi
Fixed Income Analyst Hong Kong
munyi.st@maybank-ib.com Joanne Lam Sum Sum
(+60) 3 2074 7606
Head of Corporate Sales Hong Kong
Joanne.lam@maybank.com
(852) 3518 8790