Getting Down to Business

Jeff DuncanBarry Nangle

Mining business data from a registration database

Vital Records Revenue Sources

General Fund43%

VR Fees45%

VSCP10%

Other Federal2%

General Fund20%

VR Fees70%

VSCP9%

Other Federal1%

FY 1994 FY 2004

*Fee increase, 7/1/2003

OLIVER

OLIVER—Online Issuing of Vital Event Records• Links State Office, 12 Local registrars and 5

satellites• Combines front office (certification) with back

office (statistics)• Counter, Mail and Internet requests• 1,056,925 records issued from 9/1/1999 to

4/15/2004• 482,475 unique requests, excluding multiple

certificates

Certificate Sales by Event and Issuing Office September, 1999 – April, 2004

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

Local OVRS

Issuing Office

Nu

mb

er

of

rec

ord

s s

old

Deaths

Births

Who Is Buying Birth Certificates?

•50% of birth certificates sold within 10 years of birth

•Almost ¼ of all birth certificates sold within 5 years of birth

Birth Certificates Issued by Age1999-2004

< 10 years50%

Over 21 years35%

<1 year21%

1-5 years23%

11-21 years15%

6-10 years6%

Certificates Issued to Y2K Birth Cohort

•20% were issued birth certificates within 2 months after birth

•40% were issued in first year after birth

•Currently, 53% of Y2K births have been issued birth certificates

Issued

Not issued

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48

Month after Birth

Y2K Birth Cohort: Percent Issued Birth Certificate by Month After Birth

Social Marketing Implications of Birth Certificate Sales

Parents of 25,000 infants and toddlers contact us for Birth Certificates annually

Child Health programs see a “missed opportunity” for outreach to families

Applications for Integrated Information Systems • Potential to reach infants lost to follow-up for

newborn hearing screening• Immunization reminders

Birth Certificate Revenue by Number of BirthsFY 1998 – FY 2003

y = 36.554x - 1E+06

R2 = 0.8786

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

800000

900000

44000 45000 46000 47000 48000 49000 50000 51000 52000

Births

Re

ve

nu

e (

$)

Effects of Fee Increase—Birth Certificates

Fee Increase

•July 1, 2003

•Births went from $12 / $5 to $15 / $8

•Initial Copies: 5% decrease in number sold

•Additional copies: 20% decrease in number sold

•Revenue increased 21%

Birth Certificates sold by Quarter, FY99-FY04

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

Quarter

Num

ber s

old

Initial copies

Additional Copies

fee increase

Time Series Analysis

Multiplicative Decomposition using 5 years of sales data

Yt = Tt x Ct x St x It

Quarterly Seasonal Factors

Quarter St

Jul-Sep 1.05

Oct-Dec 0.81

Jan-Mar 1.08

Apr-June 1.06

Birth Certificate Initial Copies Sold by Quarter, 2003

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

Q1-2003 Q2-2003 Q3-2003 Q4-2003

Quarter

B.C

. In

itia

l C

op

ies

1.05

0.81

1.08 1.06

Deseasonalized Trend

Deseasonalized trend line (through June, 2003):

Yt = 4544 + 49t

Deseasonalized Trend vs. Actual Copies Sold, 1999-2004

0100020003000400050006000700080009000

1 6

11

16

21

26

31

36

41

46

51

56

61

Time Period (month)

Nu

mb

er

so

ld

Tt

actual

deseasonalized

fee increase

Other facts

After the fee increase:- The average number of birth certificates per request decreased

from 1.66 to 1.45

- The average number of death certificates per request stayed the same at 5.7

Conclusions

New births drive new business Interaction with parents presents a significant public

health opportunity Fee increase hurt sales but not revenues Use seasonality to adjust expectations, especially

after a fee increase