Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

The End of Control, the People formerly known as Consumers... and the Future of Broadcasting

Presentation at NPOX 2008November 17 2008by Gerd Leonhard www.mediafuturist.com

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Remember?

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

How life changes with more bandwidth!

We often overestimate how quickly change will happen

We often underestimate the magnitude of the changes

when it does happen

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

12-18 months for some very very drastic changes!

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

Source: kk.org

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

But: this is not about technology

Emerging Cultural Practices

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

Broadband Culture

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

!If you want to learn how to swim you’ll have to get wet!

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

A few shocking facts from the U.S.

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

The Digital Natives: Internet over TV

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

The Internet takes time away from all other Media

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

What to do? If the future

audience migrates to

the Internet then you

must BECOME the

Internet for them!

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

Who is the DJ?

Remember when you had a

Monopoly in Attention?

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

So what are those practices?

• I want it when I want it [time-shifting]

• I want it how and where I want it

[place-shifting]

• I want to be able to influence, talk back,

determine [control-shifting]

• I want real value for my money - or else...

[money-shifting]

• I want real value for my attention - or else...

[attention-shifting]

Emerging cultural practices...

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

To summarize

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

I program my media - it does not program me!

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

A huge challenge

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

Because

In all Media, Push is

becoming Pull

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

Broadband Consequences

Now we need

•Filters

•Curators

•Context

•Relevance

•Merit

• Humanness

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

Are you...?

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

The Future: more and more fragmentation.. and (Re)-Aggregation

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

Source: Flickr hillarylmrore

LifeContent Media

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Serious role changes

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

Instead of Control, Trust is the key to success in a Networked World

http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2008/apr/21/netmusic

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

Once technology becomes dead-simple...

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

Next:

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

Expect big changes when things actually work!

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

Mainstream Media and the ‘Wisdom of the Crowds’

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

The public TV / Radio license and... Users willing to pay $$ for Google...?

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

Why?

Finding and being Found.Sharing.Communicating.Connecting

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

Sharing is the key

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

Content UsersContent Creators

Listeners

Viewers

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Content: UGC is a MAJOR force

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

People now pay more to express themselves, and less to consume

Image via flickr.com/photos/spursfan_ace/

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

Crowd + Cloud = Serious Potential

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

http://flickr.com/photos/inweaknessbe/

No archive... no attention!

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

Does this worry you?

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

Kevin Kelly @ kk.org: The key is to offer valuable intangibles:

1. Immediacy - priority access, immediate delivery

2. Personalization - tailored just for you... !MeCast"

3. Interpretation & Filtering - support and guidance

4. Authenticity - making sure it"s the real thing

5. Accessibility - wherever, whenever, however

6. Embodiment, Experience & Packaging

7. Community (i.e. the Tribes)

8. Findability & Curation

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

The Future of Content: Attention-based Income Explodes

0

2.5

5.0

7.5

10.0

WasIs

SoonNear Future

Mid-term Future

Copy Based Revenues

Attention Based Revenues

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

Users =

= Users

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

This is over

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

Moving from take-down to permission, from NO to YES

Rights Societies!

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

Be trusted or... Perish!

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

This will NOT work in the Future

A World of No becomes a World of Yes

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

Together, Broadband Culture and Mobility will re-define how we think about:

• Privacy• Authority• Ownership / Copyright• ‘Selling’ (and Marketing)• Work• Education

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

Put yourself in the middle of all of it!

Broadcaster

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

Your TV

Your Radio

I m a g i n e

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

Imagine a multi platform multi device Google Content Reader:

Broadcasters fill the need for Trust, for

filtering Choice, for

Curation

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

Social Networks are

the

Next Broad-casters

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

EU Broadcasting in 3-5 years

• 100% digital and fully converged with the Internet

• All stations everywhere,anytime, any way we want

• Video and Audio converging

• Community features at the center

• Geography fades, borders become soft

• Radio license is first questioned and then

expanded (based on a Flat Rate for Digital Music)

• Advertising 2.0 emerges as major funding option

• Public Radio offers full archives on-demand

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

Some trigger factors:

!Highspeed Wireless Internet everywhere

!WiBro in the car

!4G Wireless cell phone networks fully deployed

!Radios with WLAN chips

!Cell phones with DAB receivers (and WLAN)

!Mobile computing devices that talk effortlessly to each other

!Web5.0 as easy as a TV remote control

!Everyone networked

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

The Digital Music Flat Rate is inevitable

+ =

+ =

~1910

~2009?

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

The 6 Inevitables

1. Broadcasting must support time-shifting

2. Broadcasting must support space-shifting

3. Broadcasting must support sharing

4. Broadcasting must support interactivity

5. Broadcasting must support community

6. Broadband must return to be ‘social media’

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

Summary: DO

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

The dangers of an open,

shared and connected

ecosystem will always be less

than those of a closed &

controlled ecosystem

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

! Email me at gerd@mediafuturist.com

! Download this presentation at www.mediafuturist.com

! Lifestream at www.gerdstream.com

! Twitter.com: gleonhard

Thanks for listening!