Post on 24-Feb-2016
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GBTA Washington Update
12th Annual Legislative SymposiumJune 24, 2014
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Capitol Hill Is A (Relatively) Small Neighborhood
House Senate
Russell Senate Office Building
Dirksen Senate Office Building
Hart Senate Office BuildingSupreme CourtLibrary of
CongressJefferson Building
Cannon House Office
Building
Longworth House Office
Building
Rayburn House Office Building
Capitol Visitors Center Entrance
Library of CongressMadison Building
Getting To The HillBy Car
• Capitol Hill offers few public parking options; street parking is difficult.
• The nearest garage is north of the Capitol, by Union Station
• Many visitors prefer to arrive by taxi, available throughout the city.
By Public Transportation• For most visitors, the Metro system will prove the
best transportation bet. • The Red Line (subway) serves the north side of the
Capitol, while the Blue and Orange lines offer two stations to the south
• The Metrobus serves various points around the Hill; visit WMATA.com to see detailed maps
By Foot• D.C. is a relatively walkable
city.• However, hot and humid
weather may make long walks inadvisable during summer months
2Sources: Architect of the Capitol, National Journal Research.
Capitol South Metro
FederalCenterMetro
UnionStationMetro(noton map)
NSE
W
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The Geography of The Senate Side
Russell Senate Office
Building
Dirksen Senate Office
Building
Hart Senate Office
Building
Senate Chamber
First Street NE
Constitution Avenue
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Understanding Office NumbersBuilding Russell (SR) Dirksen (SD) Hart (SH)
Numbering System
All rooms are three digits, the first digit indicating floor number and a prefix indicating office building
Example Sen. Harry Reid’s office, SH 522, is located on the fifth floor of the Hart building
Sources: Bing Maps, National Journal Research.
EWS
NPublic Non-Handicapped Accessible Entrance
Public, Handicapped Accessible Entrance
Entrance Member/Staff-Only Until 10 AM
The Delaware Ave. door is exclusively Member/Staff/Accessible all day
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Public Non-Handicapped Accessible Entrance
Public, Handicapped Accessible Entrance
The Geography of the House Side
First Street SE
Independence Avenue
S. Capitol Street SE
Rayburn House Office
Building
Longworth House Office
Building
Cannon House Office
Building
House Chamber
Understanding Office NumbersBuilding Rayburn (RHOB) Longworth (LHOB) Cannon (CHOB)
Numbering System
All rooms are four digits; the first is always 2, the second indicates floor
All rooms are four digits; the first is always 1, the second indicates floor
All rooms are three digits; the first indicates floor
Example Rep. Kevin McCarthy’s office, 2421 RHOB, is on the fourth floor of Rayburn
Rep. Paul Ryan’s office, 1233 LHOB, is on the second floor of Longworth
Rep. Nancy Pelosi’s office, 235 CHOB, is on the second floor of Cannon
4Sources: Bing Maps, National Journal Research.
EWS
N
Capitol South Metro
Entrance Member/Staff-Only Until 10 AM
5Source: Office of the Clerk, U.S. House of Representatives; “Illinois Rep. Kelly Takes Seat in House, Replacing Jesse Jackson Jr.,” The Associated Press, April 11, 2013.
Congressional ControlHouse Makeup by Party
Vacancy
Dem Seat
Total SeatsDemocrats: 201Republicans: 233
201
1
233
Republican Seat
Senate Makeup by Party
Independent Seat
Dem SeatRepublican Seat
53 45
2
Total SeatsDemocrats: 53Republicans: 45Independents: 2
Vacancy
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House Republicans Can Be Considered in Six Factions
Six Factions of the Republican Party(Based on Republican Votes on Key Legislation* in 2013)
Voted YES 5 of 5 times
Voted YES 4 of 5 times
Voted YES 3 of 5 times
Voted NO3 of 5 times
Voted NO 4 of 5 times
Voted NO 5 of 5 times
Coalition of the Willing The Deciders Coalition of the Unwilling
6Source: Cook Political Report, 2014.
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Obama’s Second Term Cabinet
7
Top White House Staff
Secretary of State
Defense Secretary
Attorney General
CIA Director, Director of National Intelligence
National Security Adviser
Homeland Security Secretary
Treasury Secretary
OMB Director
Council of Economic Advisers Chairman
Commerce Secretary
Energy Secretary
Health and Human Services Secretary
Housing and Urban Development SecretaryInterior Secretary
Labor Secretary
Agriculture Secretary
Transportation Secretary
Education Secretary
EPA Administrator
Federal Reserve Board
Veterans Affairs SecretarySmall Business AdministrationAdministrator
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Congress Likely to Focus on Must-Pass Bills Before Midterms
Analysis• Stalemates between the Republican House and Democratic Senate mean that few bills are likely to pass
Congress between now and the end of session, except for those measures that both parties see as a must-pass
• Both parties hope to be in a better position to influence the legislative agenda following the November elections, so both may see incentives to delay Congressional action until then
Sources: Billy House, “Time is Running Out for Big Bills,” National Journal, April 13, 2014; Bob Litan and Loren Duggan, “What’s On Tap in Congress in 2014,” Bloomberg Government, January 8, 2014.
Issues Congress Could Consider in 2014Issues With Deadlines
Issues Without Deadlines
May June July August(recess) September October November
(midterms) DecemberHighway Trust Fund: The government account that pays for highway construction is projected to run out before SeptemberNational Defense Authorization Act: Legislation authorizing Department of Defense operations is seen as a must-pass for Congress; legislators expect to produce a bill by October
Unemployment Benefits: The House and Senate remain stymied on the question of extending unemployment benefits for the long-term unemployed
Export-Import Bank: Congress faces a September 30th deadline for reauthorizingAnnual Appropriations: The Ryan-Murray budget deal set overall spending, but lawmakers may attempt to produce an appropriations bill before the fiscal year
Income Inequality : Senate Democrats are expected to propose a number of measures aimed at addressing income inequality, such as raising the minimum wage and a gender-pay bill, but the legislation is not expected to advance in a Republican-controlled House
Healthcare Reform: House Republicans have pledged to suggest an alternative to the Affordable Care Act before November elections, but the Senate is almost certain to fail to take up any measure
Tax Extenders: Congress may address expired tax breaksImmigration Reform: Movement on a bill is possible
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Possible gain of 5-10 seats
Majority control
In the House
• Odds are that the House will remain stable
• Possible Republican gain of 5-10 seats
In the Senate
• Odds are better than 50/50 that for a Republican takeover
• Would be surprised if Republicans didn’t net at least 5 seats, and 6 seats is looking increasingly likely
• Many races will swing together, e.g., if Sen. Landrieu (D-LA) loses, difficult to see Sen. Hagan (D-NC) or Sen. Pryor (D-AR) winning
Possible gain of 6+
seats
Majority control
Overall OutlookProjected Party Composition Shifts
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10
Competitive Senate Midterm Races
Recommendations and detected threats
OHWV
VA
PA
NY
ME
NC
SC
GA
TN
KY
IN
MIWI
MN
IL
LATX
OK
ID
NV
OR
WA
CA
AZNM
CO
WY
MT ND
SD
IA
UT
FL
AR
MO
MS AL
NE
KS
VT
NHMA
RICTNJ
DEMD
AK
HI
NC: Sen. Hagan (D) has watched her polling leads vanish; she will face state House Speaker Thom Tillis (R) in the general election
AR: Sen. Pryor (D) faces an uphill battle against Republican opponent Tom Cotton in an increasingly conservative state
AK: Sen. Begich (D) awaits a challenger from the crowded Alaska primary candidate pool; former Natural Resources Commissioner Dan Sullivan (R) has polled well against Begich
LA: Sen. Landrieu (D) faces Rep. Bill Cassidy (R) in a race rated a pure toss-up by The Cook Political Report
KY: Sen. McConnell (R) is running neck and neck with Kentucky Secretary of State Alison Grimes (D)
GA: After Sen. Chambliss (R) announced his retirement, Democrats made this seat a target; rookie Michelle Nunn (D) has raised over $3 million
The races identified above are considered competitive by The Cook Political Report based on each jurisdiction’s past election history, polling results, campaign fundraising, candidate quality, and other factors.
MI: No longer a safe Democratic seat; both parties are polling well early
Republican Senators
Democrat Senators
Open Senate Seats
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MT: In the contest for the seat of retiring Sen. Max Baucus (D), Rep. Steve Daines (R) will face Lt. Gov. John Walsh (D), who has been serving since Baucus left
UpdatedJune 16, 2014