Post on 14-Sep-2019
Gaining traction Will consumers ride the electric vehicle wave?
Comparison of results in China, United States, Europe, and Japan
April 2011
22
Potential first movers profile
Country EV perception Education EV knowledge Location Income Gender
China “Green and Clean”
86% BA or higher
63% very knowledgeable
Urban 36% > 400,000 RMB
48% male
U.S. “Green and Clean”
38% BA or higher
37% very knowledgeable
Urban/Suburban
57% < $50,000 60% male
Europe “Green and Clean”
46% BA or higher
23% very knowledgeable
Urban 42% < €20,000 57% male
Japan “Green and Clean”
54% BA or higher
36% very knowledgeable
Urban/Suburban
51% > 5.8M ¥ 54% male
Potential first movers of electric vehicles
The following analysis compares survey results in the following markets:China: 1163 participants from 22 major urban areas•United States: 1007 participants•Europe: 4760 participants across seven countries — Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Turkey, and the UK•Japan: 2075 participants•
Source: DTTL Global Manufacturing Industry group. Global electric vehicle survey. 2011.
Chinese “potential first movers” identify themselves as more highly educated and very knowledgeable of EVs
Common characteristics across all four regions:Consider themselves to be environmentally conscious, tech savvy, trendsetters, and politically active.•They viewed the EVs much higher in positive dimensions such as being cool, convenient, safe, stylish, and a good value. •This group sees themselves as trendsetters but are also sensitive to governmental incentives and gas mileage/cost to •charge considerations.
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%7%
46%
31%
52%43%
42%
53%
44%50%
12% 16%
4%
Not likely to consider
Might be willing to consider
Potential first movers
0%
Potential First Movers indicated they were very interested in purchasing an EV and likely to purchase or lease a new vehicle of some kind within the next 12 months
Figure 1. Consumer segmentation profiles for electric vehicles
Gaining traction Will consumers ride the electric vehicle wave? 3 Gaining traction Will consumers ride the electric vehicle wave? 3
Figure 2. Typical daily driving distance of respondents
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
160+16012080<40
Kilometers (per day)
China
% o
f peo
ple
(cum
ulat
ive)
% o
f peo
ple
(cum
ulat
ive)
% o
f peo
ple
(cum
ulat
ive)
% o
f peo
ple
(cum
ulat
ive)
45%
79%
93%98% 100%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
160+16012080< 40
Kilometers (per day)
Europe
56%
80%
91%
99% 100%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
160+16012080< 40
Kilometers (per day)
Japan
81%
94%98% 99% 100%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
200+2001007550< 25
Miles (per day)
United States
51%
77%
90%95%
99% 100%
Source: DTTL Global Manufacturing Industry group. Global electric vehicle survey. 2011.
Actual driving range is less than 80 kilometers a day for roughly 80% of individuals across the regions…
4
Figure 3. Respondents’ expectations for EV range before re-charging
Source: DTTL Global Manufacturing Industry group. Global electric vehicle survey. 2011.
Range (kilometers)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
64048032016080
A ev B
69%
31%% o
f peo
ple
(cum
ulat
ive)
% o
f peo
ple
(cum
ulat
ive)
% o
f peo
ple
(cum
ulat
ive)
% o
f peo
ple
(cum
ulat
ive)
China
Range (miles)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
>40030020010050
A ev B
63%
20%
United States
Range (kilometers)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
64048032016080
A ev B
74%
22%
Europe
Range (kilometers)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
> 64048032016080
A ev B
55%
16%
Japan
Typical driving distance (for ~80% of respondents)A
Consumer expectations on rangeB
Consumer range expectations are 2–3 times current market offerings
Gaining traction Will consumers ride the electric vehicle wave? 5
Figure 4. Charge time for EVs of 2 hours or less is expected by the majority of individuals
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
JapanEuropeU.S.China
12%
18%
25%
27%
18%
24%
19%
17%
18%
23%
26%
21%
20%
17%
16%
37%
27%
17%
13%
6%
Longest acceptable time to fully recharge EV battery
30 minutes
55%
1 hour
2 hours
4 hours
8 hours
60%67%
81%
% o
f peo
ple
(cum
ulat
ive)
Given the current recharge typically takes eight hours, charge time expectations may also be an issue.
Source: DTTL Global Manufacturing Industry group. Global electric vehicle survey. 2011.
6
Figure 5. Consumers have a low expectation for purchase price across the regions
Purchase price expectations represent a challenge for OEMs and government leaders
China (in RMB)
Expected purchase price of an EV after government incentives
United States (in $)
Europe (in €) Japan (in MM ¥)
3%
2%2% 1%
3%
5%
15%
25%
52%
9%
58%
15%
5%
37%
30%
41%
5%
14%31%
47%
< 130,000 RMB
130–200,000
200–270,000
270–340,000
340,000+
< $20,000
20–30,000
30–40,000
40–50,000
50,000+
< €15,000
15–23,000
23–30,000
30–35,000
35,000+
< 1.7 MM ¥
1.7–2.5
2.5–3.3
3.3–4.2
4.2+
Source: DTTL Global Manufacturing Industry group. Global electric vehicle survey. 2011.
Gaining traction Will consumers ride the electric vehicle wave? 7
Figure 6. Consumers have a low expectation for purchase price across the regions
China United States
Europe Japan
3%
2%2% 1%
2%
5%
15%
25%
52%
9%
58%
15%
5%
37%
30%
41%
5%
14%31%
47%
< $20,000
$20–30,000
$30–40,000
$40–50,000
$50,000+
< $20,000
$20–30,000
$30–40,000
$40–50,000
$50,000+
< $20,000
$20–30,000
$30–40,000
$40–50,000
$50,000+
< $20,000
$20–30,000
$30–40,000
$40–50,000
$50,000+
Expected purchase price of an EV after government incentives (in U.S. $*)
Source: DTTL Global Manufacturing Industry group. Global electric vehicle survey. 2011. *Conversion to U.S. Dollars is an approximation for categorization purposes.
8
Figure 7. Consumers are not willing to pay much, if any, of a price premium
Source: DTTL Global Manufacturing Industry group. Global electric vehicle survey. 2011.
China (in RMB) United States (in $)
Europe (in €) Japan (in MM ¥)
2% 4%
12%
12%
9%
19%
51%
4%6%
57%
15%
5%
4%7%
63%10%
9%
14%
6%
4%
10%
12%56%
13%
< 3,400 RMB
Same or less
6,700
13,500
20,000
27,000
< $500
Same or less
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000+
< 400 €
Same or less
800
1,500
2,300
3,000+
< 40,000 ¥
Same or less
80,000
170,000
250,000
330,000+
Acceptable price premium in local currency
Purchase price expectations represent a challenge for OEMs and government leaders
Gaining traction Will consumers ride the electric vehicle wave? 9
Figure 8. Consumers are not willing to pay much, if any, of a price premium
China United States
Europe Japan
2% 4%
12%
12%
9%
19%
51%
4%6%
57%
15%
5%
4%7%
63%10%
9%
14%
6%
4%
10%
12%56%
13%
< $500
Same or less
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000+
< $500
Same or less
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000+
< $500
Same or less
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000+
< $500
Same or less
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000+
Source: DTTL Global Manufacturing Industry group. Global electric vehicle survey. 2011. *Conversion to U.S. Dollars is an approximation for categorization purposes.
Acceptable price premium in US dollars*
10
Figure 9. The higher the price of fuel... the more interested consumers are in EVs
Question: At what price for a liter of gasoline or diesel would you be much more likely to consider buying or leasing an electric vehicle (EV)?
Source: DTTL Global Manufacturing Industry group. Global electric vehicle survey. 2011.
U.S. dollars per gallon
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
> 8.18.16.95.84.64.1
A
66%
China
U.S. dollars per gallon
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
> 776543.5
A
78%
% o
f peo
ple
(cum
ulat
ive)
% o
f peo
ple
(cum
ulat
ive)
% o
f peo
ple
(cum
ulat
ive)
% o
f peo
ple
(cum
ulat
ive)
United States
U.S. dollars per gallon
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
> 19.419.416.21410.89.7
A
77%
Europe
U.S. dollars per gallon
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
> 13.113.111.39.57.46.5
A
66%
Japan
Fuel prices would have to rise ~36% from current price to reach inflection point
Fuel prices would have to rise ~68% from current levels to reach inflection point
Fuel prices would have to rise ~30% from current levels to reach inflection point
Fuel prices would have to rise ~39% from current levels to reach inflection point
Rising fuel prices would enhance the attractiveness of EV adoption
Gaining traction Will consumers ride the electric vehicle wave? 11
Liters per 100 kilometers
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
< 2.42.434.766.7
A
57%
82%
China
Mile per gallon
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
100+10075504035
A
68%
82%
% o
f peo
ple
(cum
ulat
ive)
% o
f peo
ple
(cum
ulat
ive)
% o
f peo
ple
(cum
ulat
ive)
% o
f peo
ple
(cum
ulat
ive)
United States
Liters per 100 kilometers
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
< 2.42.434.766.7
A
48%
73%
Europe
Kilometers per liter
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
> 434332211715
A
39%
71%
Japan
Figure 10. But... the better the fuel mileage of gasoline powered ICEs, the less interested consumers become in EVs
Question: If vehicles with gasoline or diesel engines of the size, performance, and other features you prefer were able to achieve the following, at what point would it make you much less likely to consider buying or leasing an EV?
ICE fuel efficiency advancements will also have a significant influence on EV adoption
Source: DTTL Global Manufacturing Industry group. Global electric vehicle survey. 2011.
12
Figure 11. But... the better the fuel mileage of gasoline powered ICEs, the less interested consumers become in EVs
Question: If vehicles with gasoline or diesel engines of the size, performance, and other features you prefer were able to achieve the following, at what point would it make you much less likely to consider buying or leasing an EV??
Source: DTTL Global Manufacturing Industry group. Global electric vehicle survey. 2011.
Miles per gallon
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
100+10075504035
A
57%
82%
China
Miles per gallon
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
100+10075504035
A
68%
82%
% o
f peo
ple
(cum
ulat
ive)
% o
f peo
ple
(cum
ulat
ive)
% o
f peo
ple
(cum
ulat
ive)
% o
f peo
ple
(cum
ulat
ive)
United States
Miles per gallon
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
100+10075504035
A
48%
73%
Europe
Miles per gallon
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
100+10075504035
A
39%
71%
Japan
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Global Electric Vehicle researchDTTL’s Global Manufacturing Industry group conducted a global survey to explore consumer adoption of electric vehicles (EVs). The online survey captures the views of more than 12,000 consumers across the Americas, Asia and Europe in 17 countries. To qualify for the survey, potential respondents had to be 18 years of age or older and to have a driver’s license. The survey asked respondents, among other things, how likely they would be to consider buying or leasing an electric vehicle when they buy or lease their next vehicle (assuming that electric vehicles were readily available) and how likely they were to actually buy or lease an electric vehicle. The research analyzed the characteristics and opinions of three groups based on their purchase interest: Potential first movers are consumers who are most likely to buy or lease an EV; Might be willing to consider are consumers who are interested, but less likely to consider an EV; and Not likely to consider consumer who would not be interested in buying or leasing an EV. The overall margin of error for the Chinese results is +/- 2.9%.
DisclaimerThis publication contains general information only, and none of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited, its member firms, or their related entities (collectively, the “Deloitte Network”) is, by means of this publication, rendering professional advice or services. Before making any decision or taking any action that may affect your finances or your business, you should consult a qualified professional adviser. No entity in the Deloitte Network shall be responsible for any loss whatsoever sustained by any person who relies on this publication.
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