Strategic Education Directions & Getting There Through Foresight

Joe Murphy University of Houston MS in

Foresight program.SFSU Exec. MBA

Christa McAuliffe technology Conference. Manchester, NH. Dec, 2015

Joe Murphy@libraryfuture

What if foresight factored in to design?

Many Londoners disrupted by Tube strikes stuck with their change commutes after finding them more efficient despite what the Tube map optimized. The popular Tube map was not designed with future economic and social factors in mind.

https://www.whatdotheyknow.com/request/224813/response/560395/attach/3/London%20Connections%20Map.pdf produced by Transport for London

Joe Murphy

Predictions

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The FUTURE

Multiple alternative

futures

Approaches to the future

Multiple alternative

futures

Multiple alternative

futures

Joe Murphy

There are no rules about the future

but are there laws?

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Joe Murphy@libraryfuture http://www.houstonforesight.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/FF-slide-version.png

The future is unknown, not unknowable

Joe Murphy@libraryfuture

Mapping

Art by Eileen Jerrett

Joe Murphy@libraryfutureunwrapping the present, the current era Art by

Eileen Jerrett

Joe Murphy@libraryfuture https://coggle.it/

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Questions in the context of technology in education and learning • 1. What current facts/variables dominate the discussion about technology in learning? • 2. Who are the important stakeholders in the education and technology ecosystem? • 3. Beyond the above stakeholders, who else is impacting the environment that should

be considered? • 4. What basic past events began the current era of technology in learning? • 5. Name a few Trends (trends say “more” or “less” of something) of note in the arena. • 6. What are the most important and uncertain items facing us? • 7. What disrupting events, expected or not, may impact where the future is headed? • 8. What issues (conflicts/controversies/dilemmas and choices) whose resolution will

impact futures. • 9. What new intriguing ideas, images, or perspectives are emerging?

Joe Murphy

@libraryfuture

STEEP QUESTIONS

Joe Murphy

• What factors in the following areas have potential to impact the education ecosystem?

• Political/regulatory - ______ • Economic factors - ______ • Social and cultural factors, the human and society side - ______ • Technology - ______ • Please name an accepted assumption about the future of education

in a technological world. • Are there any weak signals that put that assumption at risk?

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Joe Murphy

History: era analysis & historiography

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Joe Murphy@libraryfuture

Joe Murphy@libraryfuture

ExpectedNormative

Baseline

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Alternative Futures

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The prototypical futurist tool

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Preferred Future

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Implications

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Joe Murphy

Strategic options, how we might respond to the issues

What is the issue? _________________

Why is it important? _________________

What should we do about it? (actions required) _________________

How do we make it happen (resources required) _________________

Who “owns” it? (responsibility) _________________

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Design Thinking

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Systems Thinking@libraryfuture

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Scenario planning

Joe Murphy@libraryfuture Six Pillars as another foresight method

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Spiral dynamics

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Cross impact analysis

Variable 1 Variable 2

Event 1

Event 2

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@libraryfuture Joe Murphy

Art by Eileen Jerrett

Joe Murphy@libraryfuture

Big questions

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If we are now in the knowledge age, what is next?

Joe Murphy

@libraryfuture Joe Murphy

What to ask/give futurists?

Listen for implications when presented with “the future of X is Y”

ask for: what you can provide as the industry insider (trends, scanning hits, ) to help guide a foresight framework?

share assumptions, facts on recent historical era

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studying our future ~

studying the past

Island California

we map the future that we expect

https://searchworks.stanford.edu/view/rs814rm1327

Copyright © Stanford University.

Creative Commons License. Image from the Glen McLaughlin Map Collection courtesy Stanford University Libraries.

https://purl.stanford.edu/rs814rm1327

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A simple goalFor us to walk away with an additional question or two to ask when considering our futures

Joe Murphy

@libraryfuture

Takeaways

The future does not have to be a

surprise

The future does not have to be solely

pushed externally

When the future is a surprise - you have what it takes to deal with it (and

guide it)

Joe Murphy

Joe Murphy@libraryfuture

“What is a futurist?” Houston Foresight. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ff0j5s8e1M0

Joe Murphy

My Story: Physics Degree -> MLISc – Uni Hawaii -> Yale Science Librarian -> Director Library Futures -> MBA -> M.S. Foresight

My Habitat: http://libraryfuture.com Libraryfuture@gmail.com Twitter @libraryfuture www.linkedin.com/in/joemurphylibraryfuture