Post on 07-Jan-2017
Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change LtdFellow, Centre for Management Development, London Business School
Future of Health key health trends and what they mean for
pharma manufacturing
Ins$tu$onalBlindness-beyonddata
Expectcompe**onbetweenpharma,biotech,medtechandinfotechinfinding
answerstomajorcondi*onsandinhealthspending
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Worldcanchangefasterthanyoucanholdaboardmee*ng
orbuildanewfactory
Agility
ONEWORDwilldrivethe
futureofhealth
The future is aboutEMOTION
REPUTATIONRISK
24
Demographicswillbegreatestpredictorof
futuredemand
85% of world population will be living in emerging
markets in 10 years
Future of TEVA is in emerging markets
300 million move to cities in China and 475 million to cities in Africa by 2030
Science,technologyengineering,maths
MostSTEMgraduatesinemergingmarkets
ChinaandIndiadominate
STEMdegreesincludingpost-graduate/PhDs
Europe Dying 4 couples to produce single great-grand child
1 million in Italy over 90 years old by 2026
Title Text• Body Level One
– Body Level Two
• Body Level Three
– Body Level Four
» Body Level Five
!35
>65%spend>65yearsold>1billion>60by2020
ChronicCondi*ons–Mul*pleNeeds
•100millionAmericanshavechroniccondi$ons•80%ofhealthspending•88%ofallprescrip$ons•70%ofphysicianvisits•66%Medicarecost=peoplewith5+condi$ons
AlmostallcausedbypeoplegeTngolder
PharmaCompanies
WILLfindnewblockbusterse.g.Alzheimers/Obesity
1in3babiesinNewYorkwilldevelopadult-typediabetes-cost$100bnayear
Manyhealthcostswill
FALL
PatentExpiryondrugsalesworth$225bn2011-2016
Over700biosimilarsindevelopment
EachbiosimilarneedstoscoreBETTERTHANOTHERSononeormoreoftrust,price,easeofuse,pa*ent
experience,clinicaloutcome,adverseevents,physiciansupport
Compe*ngoncostaloneisa
dangerousstrategy
FutureofHospitals
Smartimagingwilltransformdiagnosisandtreatment
3DModelling
•thankstoL.Soler
Micro-surgerywillalsotransform
hospitalcare
• $75bn endoscopy market by 2022
• 125,000 stents or carotid surgery a year in US
MorespecialistcentresLengthofhospitalstayrequiredperprocedure
oreventwillfall10-20%by2025
RapiddischargeandsupportPreven*onofadmissions
HomeCarewillneedtogrowveryfastespeciallyfor
oldpeople
Growthcommunitynursing
Enhancedcareassistantss
WearableHealthDeviceswillbealmost
universal
• Diabetes, congestive heart failure, obstructive pulmonary
• 2.2 million at home
• > $22bn by 2015
•Mobile telephony
16yearsofcontracep*vesonsinglechip
Cough,respira*on,wheeze,heartrate
Automated Device for Asthma Management, or ADAM, by Health Care Originals
Home Tele-Monitoring
Mostpa*entswillknowmorethantheir
physiciansabouttheircondi*on-impactonprescribing-risks
Instantclinic-atfixedcost
Biotechwilldrivemostpharma
innova*on
Mouse Retina
Build Nanotech Robots as Biotech Therapies
Confidential
HSV1causescoldsores.WhenengineeredasSeprehvir(HSV-1716),itisharmlesstohealthy@ssue.
•Oncolytic viruses • Infect and kill cancer tumour cells •No damage to healthy tissue •Evidence of impact in clinical trials •Able to deliver new genes into cancer cells •Micro-dose chemo, micro-dose radiotherapy
Viruses to cure cancer
ElectronicMedicalRecordswillmean
beaerdecisionsusingBigData+risks
Product scanning means safety
Computer-aided decisions save lives and time
Ottawa Hospital, Ontario - 3000 ipads Mayo Clinic - 2000 ipads
400,000deathsayearinAmericafromavoidablemedicalerrors
Whyarewecollec*ngdata-forpa*entuseortokeepsomeoneoutofhospital?
• Zettabyte = 1024 Exabytes Exabyte = 1024 Petabytes Petabyte = 1024 Terabytes Terabytes = 1024 Gigabytes That's a data explosion of 44x in approximately 10 years.
Big Data
Genescreeningwilldominatediseasepreven*onand
treatment
Less than £1000 per person
OrganRepairwillberou*neusingowncells
•Pigsteethgrowninsiderats•Micegrownewteethfromnervecells/gum$ssue
Grow New Teeth
Repair Heart / Brain / Retina / Spine
Rod photoreceptors (in green) within a "mini retina" derived from human induced Pluripotent Stem Cells in the lab. Courtesy of Johns Hopkins Medicine
Re*nacellsfromadultskincells
Newinsulincellsincapsulestoprotectfrom
immunesystem
Repair Pancreas in diabetics
98
Competition from implanted devices containing insulin
An*-Ageingwillbeaglobal
obsession-withrapidprogress
Performance
Shift in retail health care from health treatment to life enhancement
Want to look better - $200bn pa by 2020
may be
Want to think better......
•20%studentsinUS/UKusememorydrugstopassexams
7mechanismsofageinginanimalandhumancells
•Celllossoratrophywithoutreplacement•Nuclearmuta$onsandepimuta$onsthatcausecancer•Mitochondrialmuta$ons•Cellsenescence(deathresistance)•Junkinsidecells•Junkoutsidecells•Cross-linksbetweencells(egelas$n)
Worn out Mitochondria – Energy Boost
R-alpha-lipoic acidAcetyl-L-carnitine
Treatment which restores and maintains the youthful elasticity of
hardened arteries – and helps wrinkled skin. Global sales?
Low blood pressure and total body lift
Alteon
Slow or no ageing is a reality
• Rockfish, Turtles, some Whales
• No signs of getting old
Rougheye rockfish (Sebastes aleutianus) — 205 years Aldabra Giant Tortoise — 255 years Lobsters are believed to live 100 or more years Ocean Quahog clam — 405 years
Some animals do not “age” in normal way
LARGER SCALE
InmanyEUna*ons,>70%ofretailspendin<8companies
VW mega platform
VWMegaPlajorm-basisfor1mcars
World too small for more than:
5 large auto companies2 airline manufacturers
3 mobile operating systems
10 large pharma
SOUTH to
SOUTH
South to South” Trade will grow
8%wageinfla*oninChina-partoffsetbycurrencyfall
FundingofHealthCarewillbeverysensi*vepoli*calissue
Manyhealthcostswillfallrapidlyper
treatmentwhiletotalspendwillrise5%paglobally(7%inAsia)
Pa*entAdvocacyHelpsickpeoplegettheverybesttreatment
Ra*oningcanbeirra*onalButclear,compellingdatareallymaaers
MedtechdataisooenverypoorPharmadataisooenmainlylimitedtotrials
Totalpa*entcostperdiagnosis-combina*ons“Greatestgoodforgreatestnumber”
Qualityoflifeaswellas“hard”outcomeImpactonsocietyasawhole?
Whatelsecouldtheydowiththemoney?
MakingLifeBeaer
Everydayforeverypa*ent