Future of Broadband in Malaysia Presentation by: Dr. Mazlan Abbas

Technology Seminar – UTHM Dec. 4, 2013

+Summary

n  Introduction to the Malaysian Broadband

n  DNA - The Key Drivers

n  The Technology Trends

n  Summary

+The Birth of Internet in Malaysia

1995 25,000 Users / 20M Population

2012 17,700,000 Users / 29M Population

JARING Introduced Malaysian Internet with 25 Subscribers

+Cellular Broadband

[Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_in_Malaysia ]

+Digital Subscriber Line (DSL)

[Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_in_Malaysia ]

1.  ADSL – Asymmetric Digital Subscriber Line 2.  VDSL – Very high bit rate Digital Subscriber Line 3.  SDSL – Symmetric Digital Subscriber Line 4.  ETTH – Ethernet to the Home

+DSL Technology Options

+DSL Speed vs Distance

+Fibre

[Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_in_Malaysia ]

+Wireless Broadband

[Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_in_Malaysia ]

+Hotspot

[Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_in_Malaysia ]

+Overview

n  3G Service

n  14.6 M subscriptions [Dec. 2012]

n  82% pop coverage [June 2012]

n  Cellular phone subscriptions

n  41.1 M

n  141.6% per pop [Dec. 2012]

n  Cellular coverage at populated areas

n  96.8% [Dec. 2012]

n  Internet users

n  17.7 M [June 2012]

n  Mobile broadband subscriptions n  3.3 M [Jan. 2013]

n  Broadband subscriptions n  6.2 M [Jan. 2013]

n  In 2013, our digital eco-system will welcome two new service, Hybrid TV – Digital Terrestrial TV with Internet and Mobile 4G-LTE

+Evolution of Wireless Technologies

National Broadband Initiative In 2005, Malaysia targets

50% Broadband Household Penetration by 2010

Growth: 10.6% (2006) to 53.5% (Oct. 2010)

Target: 75% (2015)

+Global Innovation Index - Ranking Country 2008-2009 Rank

USA 5.28 1

Germany 4.99 2

UK 4.84 3

Sweden 4.82 4

Singapore 4.81 5

South Korea 4.73 6

Switzerland 4.73 7

Denmark 4.69 8

Japan 4.65 9

Netherlands 4.64 10

Canada 4.63 11

Hong Kong 4.59 12

Finland 4.57 13

… … …

Malaysia 4.06 25

Country 2009-2010 Rank

Iceland 4.86 1

Sweden 4.85 2

Hong Kong 4.83 3

Switzerland 4.82 4

Denmark 4.72 5

Finland 4.66 6

Singapore 4.65 7

Netherlands 4.62 8

New Zealand

4.60 9

Norway 4.59 10

USA 4.57 11

Canada 4.55 12

Japan 4.50 13

… … …

Malaysia 3.77 28

+Human Capacity - Researchers

+ Importance of ICT

Communications -> Information -> Knowledge -> Power

+What is Innovation?

Unlike invention, which usually requires a flash of inspiration,

innovation is a process of coordinated activities that, when linked with identified opportunities, generates new value for the organisation and

the customer.

+

Prime Minister introduced 4 strategic thrusts to transform

Malaysia towards Vision 2020

+

New Economic Model (NEM)as a framework to

begin our journey

+

+

NKEA will boost our Gross National Income (GNI) by 2020

USD 15,000 RM 48,000

Per capita

USD 6,700 RM 23,770

Per capita

A National Key Economic Activities (NKEA) is a driver of economic activity that has the

potential to directly and materially contribute a quantifiable amount of economic growth to the

Malaysian economy

[Source: PEMANDU http://www.pemandu.gov.my/]

+

12 NKEAs

[Sumber: PEMANDU http://www.pemandu.gov.my/]

+

MY Creative Content!Local content hub to

vitalise creative sector, reduce dependence on

international connectivity, and export content !

1MY Payment!Common standards,

platforms and security protocols to cashless payment to masses in

Malaysia"

Connecting 1MY!Next-generation

services to provide ubiquitous connectivity

and compelling services for the Rakyat at home,

in the workplace, "and ‘on-the-"

move’"

E-Learning!Integrated approach to

provide access, devices, and platforms/content/ applications to benefit

the learning "Rakyat"

E-Healthcare!Networked healthcare providers to each other and to their patients to

improve productivity and information

management"

E-Government!Increasing the

accessibility, speed, and transparency of

government services through communications

technology"

Broadband for All!Establishing broadband as an essential service to Malaysians on par

with other utilities, e.g. water and electricity"

Extend Reach!Acceleration and

expansion of broadband coverage in non-urban areas (e.g. to Zone 2

and" Zone 3)"

Smart Network!Differentiated pricing to provide higher quality and more affordable

service "

Regional Network!Capacity increase of

Malaysia’s submarine cable network to lower

international IP connectivity costs"

3a!

3b!

3c!

3d!

2a!

2b!

2c!

1a!

1b!

1c!

Enhancing Foundation!(Next Generation Infrastructure) !

Pushing Boundaries!(Industries Enablement)"

Serving Tomorrow!(Platform, Applications, Content) !

CCI - 10 EPPs covering 3 major categories

[Source: PEMANDU http://www.pemandu.gov.my/]

+Setting the Objectives - Challenges

6,000 schools

connected (60% of total)

4,500 Medical

institutions connected

(50% of total)

50% Of services

online (including

school registrations

and transfers, business

permits and licenses.

700,000 Non-urban broadband

users (Additional 2.1 Mil premises

passed and 2,000 wireless

sites)

RM320 million

(USD100 Million) Additional

revenue from export of

creative content

6 million Users on

Internet and mobile

payments

150,000 Additional fixed

broadband subscribers

860,000 Additional wireless

broadband subscribers

[Sumber: PEMANDU http://www.pemandu.gov.my/]

+Enhancing Foundation (Next Generation Infrastructure)

[Sumber: PEMANDU http://www.pemandu.gov.my/]

+Extend Reach - Deployment Challenges

[Sumber: PEMANDU http://www.pemandu.gov.my/]

+

Broadband – The Malaysian

Approach

B R I D G I N G T H E D I G I T A L

D I V I D E

+Rural Subscriber Present an Unlocked Potential

Close to 3.4 Billion people live in Rural Area (World population 6.7 Billion)

In Africa about 70% and in Asia 60%

Often there is NO communications service available

Characteristics of a potential village subscriber •  Income less than USD 3 per day • Awareness and education level is low • Lack of basic infrastructure such as power, roads, etc

+Zones Distribution

Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3

Zone 1 : High Speed Broadband (HSBB) •  High Impact Area (>10Mbps) •  Target to cover 50% of household

Zone 1&2 : Broadband for General Population (BBGP) •  Medium Impact Area (> 384 kbps < 2 Mbps)

Zone 3 : Universal Service Provision (USP) •  Telephone and Broadband (384 kbps) •  Less than 80 people in 1 square km •  Operators Contribution

 Area   Popula+on   Technology  Choice  

Zone  1   13,318,703   FTTH,  ETTH,  VDSL,  HSPA+,  WiMAX  

Zone  2   5,499,180   ADSL2+,  HSPA+,  WiMAX  

Zone  3   8,911,813   ADSL,  HSDPA,  WiMAX,  etc  

Total   27,729,696  

To-date: 53.5 % (Oct, 2010)

+

Time

Soci

o-ec

onom

ic v

alue

of I

CTs

Intensity of ICT adoption

Adoption gap

Diffusion of ICT infrastructure

Access gap

Value gap

Social & economic impact of ICTs

• Poor Value realization due to Insufficient value creating content

• Barrier to entry due to literacy level and language

• Complexity of Computers

• Connectivity

• Devices

• High cost of Infrastructure deployment

1

2

3

Understanding the Bridging Digital Divide (BDD) Gap

Knowledge comes from information

Information is Power

+Digital Natives - Webciety

Create Use Live

“We create the Internet” “We live and breathe in the Internet”

“We use the Internet”

+

1st Screen

2nd Screen

3rd Screen

4th Screen

5th Screen

Cinema

Television

Computer

Smartphone

Tablet

Digital Native

Screen Evolution

+4G (LTE)

+

Key Drivers of

Broadband

+

Driver #1

MOBILE

+Future Wireless Access – Key Challenges

Data Tsunami is coming •  Currently an exponential growth of mobile data is observed* •  More advanced devices with more capabilities

(smartphones, tablets, etc), as well as increased importance of machine generated data result in increased traffic generation

•  Multi-device ownership, resulting in synchronization of data between devices

•  Mobile Social Networking and User Generated Contents

* The data amount is doubling annually resulting in 1000× increase in the current decade, for the individual devices this means performance will increase 100×

+

First 20 Quarters Since Launch

Note AOL subscribers data not available before CQ3:94; Netscape users limited to US only. Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimates, April 2010

Subscribers (MM)

Q1 Q3 Q5 Q7 Q9 Q11 Q13 Q15 Q17 Q19

20

40

60

80

100

0

Mobile Internet

Quarters Since Launch

Desktop Internet

It’s Happening Fast !

+

Global Mobile vs. Desktop Internet User Projection, 2007 – 2015E

Internet Users(MM)

400

800

1,200

1,600

2,000

0 2007E 2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E

Mobile Internet Users

Desktop Internet Users

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimates, April 2010

The Trend is Irreversible

+

Annual global IP traffic will surpass the zettabyte threshold (1.4 zettabytes) by the

End of 2017

+

Global IP traffic has increased more than fourfold in the past 5 years, and will increase threefold over

the next 5 years.

+

Content Delivery Networks (CDNs) will carry over half of Internet traffic in 2017.

+

Nearly half of all IP traffic will originate with non-PC devices by 2017

+

10GB Average  data  usage  per  month  

548GB Highest  user  consump4on  record    in  1  month  

600 Concurrent  users  per  site    

1,700TB Average  monthly  network  traffic  

Over 57% Rich  Media  ac4vi4es  on  P1’s  network  

Beyond Email. Beyond Voice

[SOURCE: Michael Lai Keynote Speech, WiMAX Forum SEA Regional Focus Conference 2010]

+

Traffic Equivalents* 1 Laptop= 15 Smartphones = 450 Voice Handsets

A Network Optimized for Mobile Voice Cannot Handle High Numbers of Mobile

Internet Users

[ Source: Cisco, 2009]

AT&T's iPhone Mess The iPhone has swamped AT&T's data network and sparked a

consumer rebellion.

Cover Story February 3, 2010

KDDI Confirms LTE Migration Plan But Will Use WiMAX and WIFI too KDDI’s  President  and  Chairman,  Tadashi  

Onodera  stated  at  GSMA  Mobile  Asia  Congress  2010.    

TeleGeography  Comms  Update  

Wed,  17  Nov  2010  

LTE will not be sufficient to cope with such huge data demands so we also need to use

other technologies such as WiMAX and WiFi

Mobile Data Crunch

+Smartphones Unleashed

+Device Ecosystem

47

Cre

ate

High-Performance UMPC Laptop

Laptop DIGI-Cam

Car

ry &

Ed

it

TV

UMPC UMD

eBook

Navigation

Dual Mode Handset PMP UMPC

Navigation Modem

Vie

w

In-Car Entertainment

Gateway

MP3 Player

Palm Pocket

Game PMP

Fixed & In Vehicle

Briefcase Handbag Backpack

Portability / Mobility

Info

rmat

ion

Con

sum

er

Cre

ator

+The Habits of Online Newspaper Readers

[http://online.wsj.com]

+User Interface Transformation

+What’s the Next UI?

Leap Motion Air Gesture

Moto-X Touchless Control

+

Driver #2

APPLICATIONS

+

Android Market

App Store

Blackberry App World

Ovi Store - Nokia

PlayNow Arena – Sony Ericsson

PocketGear App Store

Samsung App Store

Symbian Apps

Telus Mobility App Store

Verizon Media Store

Windows Marketplace

Mobile App Stores

+Data ARPU increase

Consumers increasingly want to access the same Internet content and services on their mobile phones that they can from fixed access/PCs

+

Social Media May 2011

+ Impact of Facebook

+ Impact of Twitter

+ Impact of YouTube 800 Million+ Monthly Unique Visitors •  That’s more than the entire population of

Europe!

72 Hours+ Video Uploaded Per Minute •  That’s over a decade of content every day!

4 Billion Hours of Video Viewed Each Month •  That’s over 450,000 years of video viewed each

month!

+The Social Media Effect

User Generated Contents

+

Driver #3

NETWORKS

+

Never Ending Battle for “Networks Superiority”

Which is More Superior?

+The Future is Heterogeneous

Spectrum

Deployment

Technology GSM, HSPA,

LTE, WiFi

Macro – Outdoor Micro / Pico - Indoor

3G WiFi LTE

+

Key Challenges

+

Source: Morgan Stanley Mobile Internet Report Dec ‘09

1,000,000

100,000

10,000

100

10

1

1000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Devices/Users

Mainframe

Minicomputer

PC

Desktop Internet

10B+ Connected

Devices +1B

+100M

+10M

+1M

Mobile Internet

Source: Rysavy Research Feb;10

Mobile Internet Capacity Gbytes

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Capacity  Demand  

Capacity    Supply  

The Mobile Internet Creating New Challenges For Carriers

+Traffic Grows Explosively But Not the Revenue Mobile data traffic will increase 1000 times in 10 years

Profit per bit will continuously decrease in the future years

+

Disruptive Transformation

The Changing World of Mobile Internet

Bandwidth Applications

•  Higher quality-of-experience

•  Higher sessions and session rates

•  New monetization models

“Pipe Provider” “Value-Added Provider”

+The Future of Broadband in Malaysia

n  How do we close the Digital Gap?

n  How do we leverage Broadband to innovate?

n  How do we achieve Vision 2020?

+

THANK YOU EMAIL: mazlan@gmail.com TWITTER: mazlan_abbas FACEBOOK: www.facebook.com/drmazlanabbas LINKEDIN: my.linkedin.com/in/mazlan/ SLIDESHARE: www.slideshare.net/mazlan1