Post on 19-Jan-2016
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(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Future Directions (for the AR5)Future Directions (for the AR5)
Future Directions Future Directions inin
Globally Coordinated Globally Coordinated Climate Change ResearchClimate Change Research
Primary Sources:
IPCC Expert Meeting on New Scenarios + CMIP5 Plans
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Future Directions (for the AR5)Future Directions (for the AR5)
New ScenariosNew Scenarios
• “• “long-term” scenarios long-term” scenarios 2100 and ultimately 2100 and ultimately 2300 2300- climate targets for avoiding risks- climate targets for avoiding risks- long term strategies for mitigation & adaptation- long term strategies for mitigation & adaptation
Global scenarios for two time periodsGlobal scenarios for two time periods
• “• “near-term” scenarios near-term” scenarios 2035 2035- potential for “prediction”- potential for “prediction”- directly linked to policy planning- directly linked to policy planning
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Future Directions (for the AR5)Future Directions (for the AR5)
Approaches to Scenario DevelopmentApproaches to Scenario Development
Previous (e.g., SRES) Planned (e.g., RCP)
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Future Directions (for the AR5)Future Directions (for the AR5)
Expected Representative Concentration PathwaysExpected Representative Concentration Pathways
RCP8.5RCP8.5
• > 8.5 W/m> 8.5 W/m22 in 2100 in 2100
• risingrising
RCP6RCP6
• ~ 6 W/m~ 6 W/m22 in 2100 in 2100
• stabilizationstabilization
RCP4.5RCP4.5
• 4.5 W/m4.5 W/m22 in 2100 in 2100
• stabilizationstabilization
RCP3-PDRCP3-PD
• peak 3 W/mpeak 3 W/m22 before 2100 before 2100
• decline after peakdecline after peak
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Future Directions (for the AR5)Future Directions (for the AR5)
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Future Directions (for the AR5)Future Directions (for the AR5)
(K.E. Taylor, 2009)
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Future Directions (for the AR5)Future Directions (for the AR5)
(K.E. Taylor, 2009)
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Future Directions (for the AR5)Future Directions (for the AR5)
(K.E. Taylor, 2009)
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Future Directions (for the AR5)Future Directions (for the AR5)
(K.E. Taylor, 2009)
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Future Directions (for the AR5)Future Directions (for the AR5)
(K.E. Taylor, 2009)
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Future Directions (for the AR5)Future Directions (for the AR5)
(K.E. Taylor, 2009)
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Future Directions (for the AR5)Future Directions (for the AR5)
CMIP5 Model Resolution (mean over models)CMIP5 Model Resolution (mean over models)
(K.E. Taylor, 2009)(K.E. Taylor, 2009)
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Future Directions (for the AR5)Future Directions (for the AR5)
(K.E. Taylor, 2009)
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Future Directions (for the AR5)Future Directions (for the AR5)
(K.E. Taylor, 2009)
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Future Directions (for the AR5)Future Directions (for the AR5)
(K.E. Taylor, 2009)
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Future Directions (for the AR5)Future Directions (for the AR5)
(K.E. Taylor, 2009)
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change)(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Future Directions (for the AR5)Future Directions (for the AR5)
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Future Directions Future Directions inin
Globally Coordinated Globally Coordinated Climate Change ResearchClimate Change Research