Post on 04-Aug-2020
Price ` 340
Fair Value 430
Upside 26%
Div Yield 0.29%
Tenure 1 Year
Sensex 34082.71
Nifty 10476.70
Group/Index
M.cap (` in cr) 8265
Equity (` In cr) 24.31 Expansions
52 wk H/L ` 438.55/196.55
Face Value ` 1.00
NSE code ASAHIINDIA
BSE code 515030
RONW 28%
P/E 56
P/BV 15.6
EV/EBIDTA 21.69
IN `
Strategic Investment
EV (`in cr) 9574.66
BV (`in cr) 21.78
NW(`in cr) 529.59
EPS (TTM) 6.10
FY 20Est. Earnings 239.49
Equity Share Capital 24.31
1.00
24.31
EPS(FY20 Est.) 9.85
Estimated P/E Ratio 51
Estimated Price/share(Discounted for 2 years ) 430
Year End 201703 201603 201503 201403
Tax Rate % 33.65 42.25 25.55 31.00
Receivable days 34 41 43 51
Source: Google Div. Payout % 19.30 17.55 - -
INVESTMENT RESEARCH
FUNDAMENTAL COVERAGE - ASAHI INDIA GLASS LIMITEDDated : 07 th Feb. 2018
FV
VALUATION (` In Cr except per share)
BUY Investment Rationale
Share Holding Pattern
With its backward and forward integration across the glass value chain, AIS is
uniquely positioned to meet the end-to-end glass solutions requirements. Increased
frequency of new model launches along with value added features augurs very well
for AIS going forward.
Key Valuation Ratios
Operational efficiency, strong clientele, recent acquisitions & expansions, cuttingedge marketing efforts - help company to perform wellStrong Customer RelationshipsThe company has strong symbiotic relationships with most of the global and local OEMs in India.There is inherent “mutual trust” in these relationships which is backed by decades of strong andreliable performance for long-term mutual benefit. Company is a preferred choice of majorautomotive companies including Maruti Suzuki, Hyundai Motors, Mahindra & Mahindra, TataMotors, Toyota Kirloskar, Honda Cars India, Volkswagen India, Ford India, Skoda Auto andFiat India.
AIS announced yet another major Greenfield expansion for its 5th automotive plant in Gujarat.This Greenfield project, with investments of up to Rs. 500 crores,in 2 phases, is being set upmainly to meet the requirements of Maruti Suzuki in Gujarat. In the first phase, the plant willhave capacities to produce about 1 million laminated and 1.2 million tempered glass sets. Taloja plant refurbishment is already underway and shall be operational by Q3 of FY 2017-18. This latest furnace will not only increase capacity by approx. 60% but it will have the ability tomake the highest grades of glass for the architectural market directly and for value addedpurposes like mirroring, hard coating, soft coating and high level processing. Most importantly, itwill have the capability to make the highest standards of automotive raw glass giving 100%capability to make own automotive glass and will add to the Company’s ability to cater to diversegeographical regions as well as exports.
Key Financial Data
Company has agreed to make a strategic investment in Timex Group Precision Engineering Ltd.(TGPEL) (a 100% Subsidiary Company of Timex Nederland B.V.) by acquiring and/ or subscribingto equity shares of TGPEL by March, 2018, to be held through a proposed joint venture company,Scopfy Components Pvt. Ltd. which is being formed along with other investors. Towards this end,the Company has entered into Share Purchase Agreement on 30th November, 2017 to acquireequity shares from the promoters and other existing shareholders. This will not only help thecompany in securing supply chain integrity through backward integration, but also diversifyits operations.
The growth in the glass industry is characterized by the increasing use of processed
and high-performance glass in the automotive and architectural sectors. The Indian
customer has become more aware about the importance of glass in effectively
addressing the concerns of safety and energy efficiency.
Stock Details
B / S&P BSE
500
Corporate Governance Transparency Ratio's
No. of Equity Shares
54%46%
Promoter Others
Page 1 www.rudrashares.com
Roadmap ahead
Auto industry
Spending powerThe sheer size of India's youth combined with shifting preferences, improving education, technology andconnectivity is going to reveal a lot of spending power in the coming decades. The Government’sinitiatives towards favorable policies and executive reforms is further driving the positivity. DirectBenefit Transfer (subsidy reforms), Financial Inclusion, Digitization, Make in India, Ujjwala Yojana,Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana and Uday Scheme are some of the signature initiatives. The subsequentimpact will bring about a strong momentum across the economy’s key segments. GST implementationwill further boost the tax collection and supply chain efficiencies in the medium to longer term.
The Indian economy is strongly evolving and gaining a bright spot in the globallandscape. The Government’s significant progress on important economicreforms have driven strong and sustainable growth for the future. This hashelped build a momentum for positive business climate. At AIS, the promisingeconomic prospects presents a good outlook for the business. The Company isgeared up for a fast-paced growth going ahead
India to power global growth in the next three yearsIndia has increased its heft globally and now contributes as much as US in PPPdollars to world GDP growth
Consumption boomWith the world's second biggest population (1.3 billion), including 440-millionmillennials (adults) and 390-million Generation Z (teens and children bornafter 2000), India is all set to witness a consumer boom over the next twodecades
GDPGlobal GDP growth was 3.1% between 2014 and 2015. Nearly half of this could be attributed to strongeconomic activities in China and other emerging economies. India’s contribution to global growth was
equal to that of the US but lower than China. The country’s growth in 2016-17 surpassed that of the G-20 Nations. By 2020, India is expected to become the second most important economy contributing toover 40% of global growth.USD 60.10 billion FDI inflows in FY 2016-17 – marking the highest inflow ina single year since liberalization
The auto industry is expected to grow at an average of 8-10% p.a. in India as the aspirations andpurchasing power of the young consumer increases. The key remains product quality and features.
Today’s youth expects global quality standards and features, but remains fiercely cost conscious. Thechallenge will be to deliver world quality value added products to young India at Indian prices. This is atough proposition but not impossible given the scale India offers. Almost all great success stories in Indiahave the ability to find local solutions to this difficult mandate. AIS thrives on “Quality of Japan at Cost ofIndia” duality.
At a global stage, the automotive industry is facing newer challenges from autonomous driving, ridesharing apps, electric vehicles, which are bigger than the traditional challenges like light weighting,emissions, safety, and fuel economy. The new challenges have the potential to alter the landscape of theindustry forever. Glass will continue to play a leading role in the cars of future. Demand for glass isexpected to remain healthy and with the introduction of new quality standards for all architectural glassproducts backed by sensible implementation of new regulations, it is expected steep rise in demand forglass especially value added products and integrated solutions. There is definite increased awareness ofthe advantages of using high performance glass for energy savings, noise mitigation, safety & securityand aesthetics
RUDRA SHARES &
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The country is expected to rank amongst the world’s top three growing economies and amongst the topthree manufacturing destinations by 2020 (Make in India).
Page 2 www.rudrashares.com
` in crores
Q2 FY 18 Q1 FY 18 Q2 FY 17626.6 602.95 611.18 3.92% 2.52%
112.33 109.85 119.73 2.26% -6.18%
17.93% 18.22% 19.59% - -
60.65 57.91 64.66 4.73% -6.20%
9.68% 9.60% 10.58% - -
38.17 38.16 37.77 0.03% 1.06%
6.09% 6.33% 6.18% - -
1.57 1.57 1.55 0.00% 1.29%
Growth Drivers
OUTLOOK
Automotive Mission Plan 2016-26
] India to be among top three automakers in the world along with China and US
] Auto Component to grow from the current levels of Rs120 billion to Rs 593.5 –732 billion
] Generate 65 million jobs (both direct and indirect) by 2026
] OEM Domestic to touch 9.32 lakh and component market to 6.62 lakh by 2026
] BSV norms to be adopted by 2019 and BSVI norms to be implemented by 2023 for passenger vehicles
The impetus and driving force gained by long-term vision and successful execution of businessstrategies has helped AIS deliver meaningful results
The automotive sector continued its positive momentum during the year with demand picking upacross all segments
Increase in purchasing powerIndia has the world's 12th largest number of high-net-worth individuals, along with a growing workingpopulation and an expanding middle-class, that will drive the demand for automobiles and real-estate in thesemi-urban and urban areas
Expansions by app-cab aggregatorsThe app-cab aggregators are expanding their operations extensively, resulting in higher demand forpassenger vehicles.
Climatic conditions India’s hot and humid climatic conditions will continue to generate demand for high performance glasses inautomobiles and building.
Government’s ambitious plansThe real estate sector will see a turnaround with increasing demand for commercial and residentialsegment driven by Government’s Smart City Projects and impetus on the Affordable Housing.
Results Snapshot
PAT
RESULTS CORNER
PBT%
EBITDA
EBITDA %
PBT
% Change
(Q-O-Q)
Qu
art
erl
y &
Ye
arl
y
Re
sult
s A
na
lysi
s Quarter Ended
Revenue
Company's standalone revenue for Q2 came in at `626.6 crores, registering 2.52% increase as compared to
corresponding quarter of the previous year of ` 611 crores.
EBITDA for the quarter rose by 2.26% to ` 112.33 crores as compared to corresponding quarter of the year.
EBITDA margin for the quarter stood at 17.93%.Company reported net profit at `38.17 crore for the quarter registering marginal increase of 1% from the
corresponding quarter of the previous year. It had posted a net profit of `37.77 crore for the corresponding
period of last fiscal.EPS for the quarter stood at ` 1.57
Indian automotive industry to grow 3.5-4 times of the current value of USD 74 billion to USD 260 -300 billion by2026
Passenger vehicles likely to increase between 9.4 -13.4 million units from the current level of 3.2 million units
]
]
RUDRA SHARES &
STOCK BROKERS LTD.
PAT %
EPS
Particulars% Change
(Y-O-Y)
Page 3 www.rudrashares.com
Company Overview
AIS has design and development capability to come out with continuous innovations in glass
products. This allows AIS to be uniquely placed at the highest spectrum of value addition. With astring of New Product Development and successful launches, AIS has established a range of value-added product portfolio. This internal design and development with deep market insights enablesAIS to develop new products meeting the requirements, tastes and preference of India, withinternational quality and lower costs.
RUDRA SHARES &
STOCK BROKERS LTD.
Asahi India Glass Ltd. (AIS) is an integrated glass solutions company offering a wide range of international quality
glass that finds application across multiple industries. AIS operates in three business segments namely, Automotive,
Architectural and Consumer Glass. The Company is a dominant player in the glass industry with ten manufacturing
facilities and three warehouses cum sub-assembly units. All the locations are at globally optimal scale which enables
them to harness costs and other efficiencies. It is a preferred supplier to leading automotive OEMs and construction
companies in the Automotive and Architectural Glass segments.
Valuation Conclusion
There has been a positive momentum across the key growth sectors of the Indian economy combined withmoderate inflation, lower oil prices and reduced fiscal deficit. Demonetization did have a temporary slowdownand dent in growth sentiments, With GST implementation, a complete transparency in the taxation system canbe expected leading to a better business environment.
Estimating the share price of the company as per P/E valuation
We recommend to BUY this script for the target of ` 430 for next one year.
The strong performance is an indication of the accelerated turnaround that the Company has
been witnessing over the past 3 years. Moreover, Operational efficiency, strong clientele (JV
with Maruti Suzuki), recent acquisitions & expansions, strategic investments, cutting edge
marketing efforts & on the other end various growth drivers like increase in purchasing power
& the spending power of the people with government initiatives bodes well & would help
company to perform going forward.
Page 4 www.rudrashares.com
LTM 201709 201706 201703 201612
2407.10 626.60 602.95 597.05 580.49
441.50 112.33 109.85 120.57 98.73
96.70 20.77 22.03 25.34 28.59
344.80 91.56 87.82 95.23 70.14
14.70 5.26 1.63 6.51 1.27
130.10 30.91 29.91 34.71 34.59
214.60 60.65 57.91 60.52 35.55
66.10 22.48 19.75 9.29 14.57
148.50 38.17 38.16 51.23 20.98
(0.90) - - (0.17) (0.72)
149.40 38.17 38.16 51.40 21.70
6.10 1.57 1.57 2.11 0.86
Particulars 201403 201503 201603 201703 2018E 2019E 2020E
Sales 2138.14 2096.58 2207.37 2372.99 2573.26 2797.56 3064.36
Other operating Income 2.70 2.81 4.35 20.07 7.25 8.05 9.17
Total Inc. from operations 2140.84 2099.39 2211.72 2393.06 2580.51 2805.61 3073.53
Operating EBITA 87.29 194.00 283.34 321.98 355.46 399.22 454.16
Total Inc. from operations 2140.84 2099.39 2211.72 2393.06 2580.51 2805.61 3073.53
TOTAL EXPENDITURE 1910.66 1793.54 1818.76 1962.43 2112.15 2289.38 2498.78
EBITDA 230.18 305.85 392.96 430.63 468.36 516.23 574.75
Depreciation (142.89) (111.85) (109.62) (108.65) (112.90) (117.01) (120.59)
Goodwill amortization - - - - - - -
OTHER INCOME 3.70 16.74 2.64 9.50 12.56 14.87 18.91
Net financials
Interest income - - - - - - -
Interest expenses (162.98) (159.55) (143.92) (139.29) (116.08) (109.95) (104.40)
Net Financial Items (162.98) (159.55) (143.92) (139.29) (116.08) (109.95) (104.40)
Reported Pre-tax profit (71.99) 51.19 142.06 192.19 251.94 304.14 368.67
Reported Tax charge 22.32 (13.08) (60.02) (64.67) (88.18) (106.45) (129.04)
Reported Net profit (49.67) 38.11 82.04 127.52 163.76 197.69 239.64
Minorities (1.61) (1.90) (2.31) 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15
P/L OF ASSOCIATE CO. 1.28 2.01 2.60 3.96 - - -
(46.78) 42.02 86.95 131.33 163.61 197.54 239.49
Extra Ordinary income - (2.62) (1.18) (1.05) - - -
Dividend Paid - - (24.31) (24.31) (24.38) (24.30) (24.43)
Retained earnings (46.78) 44.64 63.82 108.07 139.23 173.24 215.06
Reported EPS (1.92) 1.84 3.63 5.45 6.73 8.13 9.85DPS - originally declared - - 1 1 1 1 1
Opening Balance 24.31 24.31 24.31 24.31 24.31 24.31 24.31
Bought Back - - - - - - -
Closing Balance 24.31 24.31 24.31 24.31 24.31 24.31 24.31
FV 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
Wtd. Avg. no. of shares 24.31 24.31 24.31 24.31 24.31 24.31 24.31
Note:- The figures shown in the brackets means NEGATIVE.
473.08
Rep. NP after min. Int.
Rep.Net Income after
extra ordinary items(46.78)
RUDRA SHARES &
STOCK BROKERS LTD.
Op Income
EBITDA
Misc.Inc (Exp.)
355.46
194.00
Rep. profit before othrinc.,
fin.cost,tax & excp. Item
Rep. profit before othrinc.,
fin.cost,tax & excp. Item
EPS and Dividend
163.61 197.54 239.49
414.09Profit from ordinary act. Before
Fin.Cost ,TAX & Exp.Items 90.99
321.98
EPS
Income Statement and Estimates ( ` in Cr except per share)
87.29
368.02
87.29 283.34 399.22
Number Of Shares
331.48285.98210.74
132.3888.1344.64
454.16 399.22 355.46
321.98
Profit & Loss
454.16
Interest Exp
Net Inc(Reg)
Rep Net Inc
Quarterly Results (` in cr except per share)
194.00
283.34
Depreciation
Particulars
Taxes
Extraord. Items
Net Sales
EBT
Page 5 www.rudrashares.com
201403 201503 201603 201703 2018E 2019E 2020E
Equity & Liabilities
Shareholders' Fund
Share Capital 24.31 24.31 24.31 24.31 24.31 24.31 24.31
Reserves and Surplus 217.06 256.94 329.74 436.61 575.84 749.09 964.15
(3.62) (5.52) (7.83) (7.66) (7.51) (7.36) (7.21)
Total Shareholders' Fund 237.75 275.73 346.22 453.26 592.64 766.04 981.25
Non-Current Liabilities
Long-term Borrowings 409.80 811.04 671.79 781.90 769.69 760.21 748.25
Other LT Liabilities 15.66 198.48 208.81 205.67 198.63 194.77 192.47
Deferred Tax Liability 0.00 0.00 (50.14) 7.40 8.33 9.37 10.54
Long term Provisions 0.34 0.40 0.72 0.88 0.97 1.06 1.17
Total Non-Current Liab. 425.80 1009.92 831.18 995.85 977.62 965.41 952.42
Current Liabilities
Short term Borrowings 697.46 317.54 381.05 266.47 227.36 198.74 161.25
Trade Payables 487.49 285.66 289.11 372.72 394.82 432.06 476.40
Other current liability 454.51 355.62 339.16 276.75 258.05 232.87 215.15
Short term Provisions 10.37 15.99 34.69 36.69 40.36 44.39 48.83
Total current Liab. 1649.83 974.81 1044.01 952.63 920.59 908.06 901.63
Total Equity & Liab. 2313.38 2260.46 2221.41 2401.74 2490.85 2639.51 2835.30
Assets
Non-Current Assets
Fixed Assets
Tangible fixed Assets 1220.56 1184.10 1198.92 1281.05 1334.59 1383.11 1425.42
G/W On Consolidation - - - - - - -
Non-current Investment 14.30 16.40 19.13 23.40 26.96 31.05 37.27
Long term L&A 43.46 57.72 90.65 142.10 101.98 114.73 126.20
Other Non current Ass. - - - - - - -
Deferred tax receiv. 114.38 103.89 - - - - -
Total Non-Current Ass. 1392.70 1362.11 1308.70 1446.55 1463.53 1528.89 1588.89
Current Assets
Current Investments - - - - - - -
Inventories 490.39 513.44 518.87 583.75 634.81 695.79 777.60
Trade Receivables 332.00 267.29 266.06 241.34 270.95 308.62 362.68
Cash & cash Equi. 27.53 31.72 38.40 15.86 26.13 44.60 52.97
Short Term L&A 70.26 85.30 88.89 113.75 94.90 61.00 52.60
Other current Assets 0.50 0.60 0.49 0.49 0.52 0.56 0.61
Total current Assets 920.68 898.35 912.71 955.19 1027.31 1110.57 1246.46
Total Assets 2313.38 2260.46 2221.41 2401.74 2490.84 2639.47 2835.35
Cash & cash equivalents 27.53 31.72 38.40 15.86 26.13 44.60 52.97
Other int. bearing assets 14.30 16.40 19.13 23.40 26.96 31.05 37.27
Interest-bearing debt 1561.77 1484.20 1392.00 1325.12 1255.10 1191.82 1124.65
Net interest-bearing debt 1519.94 1436.08 1334.47 1285.86 1202.01 1116.16 1034.42
Net gearing (%) 639.30% 520.83% 385.44% 283.69% 202.82% 145.71% 105.42%
Tangible assets
Gross capex (93.82) (83.84) (125.53) (199.91) (166.44) (165.53) (162.90)
Sale of fixed assets 0.60 12.54 0.36 14.10 - - -
Net capex (93.22) (71.30) (125.17) (185.81) (166.44) (165.53) (162.90)
Depreciation tangibles (142.89) (111.85) (109.62) (108.65) (112.90) (117.01) (120.59)
Note:- The figures shown in the brackets means NEGATIVE.
Minority Interests
Investments
BALANCE SHEET
Particulars
RUDRA SHARES &
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Page 6 www.rudrashares.com
201403 201503 201603 201703 2018E 2019E 2020E
Return on assets - 1.95% 3.93% 5.73% 6.69% 7.70% 8.75%
Return on equity - 17.39% 28.34% 33.12% 31.29% 29.08% 27.41%
ROCE - 11.46% 13.17% 14.46% 14.24% 15.22% 16.27%
EBIT Margin - 10.04% 12.93% 13.85% 14.26% 14.76% 15.39%
Pre tax margin - 2.44% 6.42% 8.03% 9.76% 10.84% 12.00%
Net Profit Margin - 2.13% 3.98% 5.53% 6.34% 7.04% 7.79%
Total asset turnover - 0.92 0.99 1.04 1.05 1.09 1.12
Fixed asset turnover - 1.75 1.86 1.93 1.97 2.06 2.19
Equity turnover - 8.18 7.11 5.99 4.93 4.13 3.52
Current Ratio - 0.92 0.87 1.00 1.12 1.22 1.38
Quick Ratio - 0.39 0.38 0.39 0.43 0.46 0.52
Cash Ratio - 0.03 0.04 0.02 0.03 0.05 0.06
Receivable Days - 52.10 44.01 38.70 36.23 37.70 39.86
Inventory Days - 87.26 85.18 84.09 86.18 86.55 87.49
Payable Days - 77.67 57.50 59.58 64.75 64.21 64.25
Conversion Cycle (Days) - 61.69 71.69 63.21 57.66 60.05 63.10
Financial Leverage Effect - 6.85 4.46 3.25 2.86 2.61 2.40
Debt to Capital - 0.84 0.80 0.75 0.68 0.61 0.53
Debt to Equity - 5.38 4.02 2.92 2.12 1.56 1.15
Note:- The figures shown in the brackets means NEGATIVE.
RUDRA SHARES &
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RATIO ANALYSIS
Particulars
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Disclosures :
1) Business Activity :
2)
3)
4)
Sr. No. Yes/No
a) No
b) No
c) No
5)
Sr. No. Yes/No
a) No
b) No
c) No
6) Other Disclosures:
Yes/No
Sr. No.
a) No
b) No
c) No
RUDRA SHARES &
STOCK BROKERS LTD.
There has been no instance of any Disciplinary action, penalty etc. levied/passed by any regulation/administrative
agencies against RUDRA and its Directors. Pursuant to SEBI inspection of books and records of Rudra, as a Stock
Broker, SEBI has not issued any Administrative warning to Rudra.
Disclosures
Rudra or its associates have received any compensation from the subject company in the
past twelve months.
Disciplinary History :
Disclosures with regard to receipt of compensation :
The Research report is issued to the registered clients. The Research Report is based on the facts, figures and
information that are considered true, correct and reliable. The information is obtained from publicly available media
or other sources believed to be reliable. The report is prepared solely for informational purpose and does not
constitute an offer document or solicitation to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments
for clients.
Rudra or its research analysts, or his/her relative or associate has any direct or indirect
financial interest in the subject company.
Rudra Shares & Stock Brokers Limited is engaged in the business of providing broking services & distribution of
various financial products. RUDRA is also registered as a Research Analyst under SEBI(Research Analyst)
Regulations, 2014. SEBI Reg. No. INH100002524.
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Disclosures with regard to ownership and material conflicts of interest :
Rudra or its research analysts, or his/her relative or associate has any other material
conflict of interest at time of publication of the research report.
Disclosures
Rudra or its research analysts, or his/her relative or associates have actual/beneficial
ownership of one per cent or more securities of the subject company.
Disclosures
The research analyst has served as an officer,director,employee of the subject company.
Rudra or its research analyst has been engaged in market making activity for the subject
company.
Rudra or its or associates have received any compensation from the subject company in the
past twelve months.
Rudra or its associates have received any compensation or other benefits from the subject
company or third party in connection with the research report .
Rudra or its associates have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the
subject in the past twelve months.
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Phone: +91 – 512 – 67011001
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Disclaimers:
This Research Report (hereinafter called report) has been prepared and presented by RUDRA SHARES & STOCK BROKERS
LIMITED, which does not constitute any offer or advice to sell or does solicitation to buy any securities. The information presented in
this report, are for the intended recipients only. Further, the intended recipients are advised to exercise restraint in placing any
dependence on this report, as the sender, Rudra Shares & Stock Brokers Limited, neither guarantees the accuracy of any information
contained herein nor assumes any responsibility in relation to losses arising from the errors of fact, opinion or the dependence
placed on the same.
Despite the information in this document has been previewed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data , personal
views of the research analyst(s)and other reliable sources, believed to be true, we do not represent it as accurate, complete or
exhaustive. It should not be relied on as such, as this document is for general guidance only. Besides this, the research analyst(s) are
bound by stringent internal regulations and legal and statutory requirements of the Securities and Exchange Board of India( SEBI)
and the analysts' compensation was, is, or will be not directly or indirectly related with the other companies and/or entities of Rudra
Shares & Stock Brokers Ltd and have no bearing whatsoever on any recommendation, that they have given in the research report.
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damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. Rudra Shares & Stock
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