Post on 08-Apr-2018
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the future of work
forward thinking inc.
A REPORT COMMISSIONED BY THE
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how and where will we
work in 2030?
This study was commissioned by the DTI. It was supported by sponsorship from
ABN AMRO, forward thinkin inc. and Herman Miller.
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the future of work scenarios
In January 2006 the DTI published the findings of its Foresight programme on Intelligent Infrastructure
Systems. The project examined the challenges and opportunities for the UK in bringing intelligence
to the physical networks that deliver services such as transport, telecommunications, water and energy.The output was presented in four future scenarios of UK society.
The Workplace Intelligence Unit has extended the IIS Foresight project, taking the scenarios and
exploring how and where we might work within them. What are the implications for business today, and
how might we best prepare for these potential eventualities?
This document outlines our 3 Future of Work Scenarios; Perpetual Motion, Urban Colonies and Good
Intentions. The fourth Foresight scenario, entitled Tribal Trading, presents the collapse of the UKs
economic structure in its current form and thus was deemed too extreme to yield practical conclusions.
The scenarios are focussed on the year 2030. They are illustrated through the perspective of a
fictional company called Cogito, a market-leading corporation operating in a knowledge intensive service
industry. Whilst intended as strategic thinking tools, rather than predictions of a certain future, they pose
interesting challenges for how businesses operate today and plan for tomorrow.
By analysing consistencies across the 3 scenarios, 6 key lessons for future proofing business
strategy have emerged.
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preparing for the futureleveraging the psychological drivers
of productivity
There are 10 psycholoical factors which drive
individual, and therefore workforce, productivity.
Traditionally companies have focussed larely on
reconition and its associated rewards to
motivate employees. However, today and evenmore so in the future, companies will need to
understand and influence the more subtle drivers
of productivity as well. As the scenarios illustrate,
financial reward is not necessarily the most
successful way to motivate a workforce.
a clear and inspiring vision with which people feel aligned
a common set of values and behaviours consistently displayed
a positive attitude and trust in the leadership team to deliver
effective teamwork and stimulation through interaction
a focus on developing self belief by playing to strengths rather
than only addressing weaknesses
respect for the unique skills and contribution of everyone
individuals given the responsibility to make decisions
recognition of the value of originality and a culture of acceptance
of good new ideas
clear and specific goals and visible celebration of achievement
being recognised and valued for good work and receiving a fair
and transparent reward for achievement of goals
meaning
values
optimism
collaboration
confidence
individualism
autonomy
originality
goals
recognition
the 10 psychological drivers of workforce productivity
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meaning matters
Meanin is one of the key psycholoical drivers
of productivity. To be successful companies must
create a clear and inspirin vision to which their
workforce is alined. Employees will respond to
varyin visions, dependin upon the company,industry and social landscape, but a successful
oranisation will always communicate its
meanin with clarity and impact. In all 3
scenarios Coitos structure, culture, brand and
workplace are desined in line with the companys
vision, even thouh the underlyin meanin
behind each model is very different.
a strong sustainability strategy is
not a luxury
In all scenarios companies are forced to act on
sustainability be it throuh necessaryinvestment in technoloical solutions,
overnment reulation, or havin to meet the
moral requirements of clients and employees.
However, alterin the environmental footprint of a
company is a lon-term task for eample, it may
take a decade to radically redesin a property
portfolio. The businesses who lead the way at
the start of the 21st century will be best prepared
to meet any of these demands.
work is intrinsically social
The intrinsically social nature of work should not
be underestimated. Despite advances in remote
communications and automation of particular
processes, personal interaction will remain a key
element of why and how we work. Even underthe Perpetual Motion scenario workers enjoy the
bull-rin enery of the workplace and the implicit
bond between members of the intellectual elite.
The implications for future-proofin are clear.
Communication skills will become ever more
important. In the future, an advanced
communications test will become a prerequisite
for job applicants (in the way aptitude tests are
often used today). Companies should already be
focussin on developin the optimal
communications culture for their competitive
position.
putting a value on knowledge work
Time spent is no loner an acceptable measure
of productivity. Knowlede workers should be
evaluated on output rather than input, and that
means businesses must evolve more sophisticated
productivity measurin tools for the future.While many firms have eradicated face-time
over the past few years, very few roles (pure sales
functions ecepted) have an eplicit
output-orientated productivity measurement.
Businesses will need to desin productivity
measurement tools moulded around the specific
results they require. While the methodoloies
may not yet be fully developed, companies should
bein to shift their internal culture to a state
where such tools will be accepted positively when
they are introduced.
the advent of the strategic workplace
The 20th century mindset of the workplace as an
operational cost to be minimised will finally be
eradicated. In the future all firms will be forced to
utilise their property assets strateically to
maimise competitiveness. As competition to
attract the best employees becomes fiercer
the workplace will become a key differentiator.
Every firm will use it to communicate meanin to
employees, help mould internal culture, and thus
maimise productivity. The workplace will also be
desined as a crucial tool in the eternal brand
communication s mi. Aain, mouldin corporate
culture and influencin eternal perceptions is a
lon-term undertakin. If carried out quickly and
reactively such strateies can lose credibility.
The answer is to lead the field now.
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perpetual motionsocial context
Rihtly or wronly, society feels it has been relieved of the
burden of environmental responsibility. Due to lare-scale
private and public investment, environmental and enery
limitations have been solved, or at least postponed, by rapid
advancements in science and technoloy. As a result, stron
economic rowth and lobalisation have continued apace,
stimulatin rampant consumerism. Technoloy is
all-pervasive, allowin instant communication and
transactions, but also facilitatin constant monitorin of our
behaviour by public and private institutions a small price to
pay, most believe, for an advanced society with countless
opportunities. The darker side to this always-on economy is
the rowin wealth distribution ap. While knowlede workers
commute in and out of city hubs to complete their hihly paid
roles, a secondary class inhabit deprived urban areas and fulfil
the remainin manual jobs that have not been automated.
the business
Lare international corporations, such as Coito, dominate the
competitive landscape. With hih levels of outsourcin, Coito
is served by a web of small service providers, many of which
operate as virtual cooperatives without any fied commercial
property. The key to Coitos success has been fihtin to
attract the most productive knowlede workers on the
market, and securin first access to leadin technoloy in order
to monitor and stimulate them. Bioloically interfaced
technoloy now monitors individuals productivity levels
throuhout the day, adjustin their environment accordinly and
instructin them when they need to eat, drink or take a st int in
the virtual sleep room to recover full productivity. Workers final
output is also measured usin tihtly defined and accurate
metrics, and is the f inal indicator of personal performance.
The CEO cannot comprehend how the firm was successfully
manaed in the 2000s without the means to accurately
monitor and artifi cially promote workers productiv ity. Today
its vital to drivin rowth, throuh creatin fierce competition
amonst workers and a ruthless, yet transparent, meritocracy.
A common patchwork quilt oranisational structure is in place
at Coito - workers spend 90% of their time workin alone,
intensely, on one task, before collaboratin briefly with the rest
of their team to share ideas (often via remote technoloy to
save time, despite team members bein present in the same
buildin). Facilitated by advanced communication technoloy
and oranisation tools, manaers oversee thiscollaborative
element, manain up to a dozen teams at a time.
Please note that most of the photographs illustrated in this
brochure are library images,
used for illustrative purposes
only. They do not form part of
the fti image library and
cannot be used without
payment to the image owner.
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ExTRACT FROM COgITO BOARD MEETINg KEY TARgETS (2030)
QUARTERLY PERFORMANCE REVIEW
LOCATION OF WORK FOR AN AVERAgE CITY-BASED
UK KNOWLEDgE WORKER (2030)
workplace
home
public space
clients workplace
travelling
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perpetual motion
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the workplace
When Coito leased its current headquarters it wanted a
buildin with impact that communicated the power and status
of its brand. Walkin throuh the doors employees and clients
are in no doubt that they are operatin amonst an intellectualelite, a well-oiled lobal machine. Similarly to the residential
ated communities where they live in the countryside,
workers appreciate the security of the Coito comple.
When manual workers rioted throuh London in protest at the
abolition of the minimum wae, Coito employees were advised
to remain in the buildin and did not even notice the
disturbance outside.
The workplace is essentially divided into 2 areas; work and
leisure. The work environment is desined for functionality, to
maimise productive behaviour. Employees have cellular
offices, each with liht, air quality and noise levels reulated for
their optimal productive environment. Self-learnin, bioloically
interfaced technoloy firstly responds to rectify dips in worker
productivity, and then learns to predict and respond to prevent
them. Workstations are desined for specialist activity, but all
systems must be fleible iven the hih level of staff turnover.
Despite the cellular floor plan there is a sense of intense enery,
individual workspaces are not luuriously spacious and are
confiured in a way that workers are constantly in one anothers
view. A bull rin atmosphere prevails, individual employee
and corporate results (both positive and neative) are clearly
displayed across the workspace. Workers are conscious of
bein both part of a team and in competition with everyone
around them.
Unlike the workspace, leisure facilities are luurious.
In choosin to work for Coito employees epect a certain
lifestyle, which the workplace helps create. A top-class
restaurant, state-of-the-art ym and luury spa are all located
on site. Most employees rarely use them, but their presence
matters. The most popular facilities are those which offer
intense stimulation and competition, such as virtual amin,
adrenalin sports and squash. It seems that even after a
14 hour day Coito employees do not want to, or cannot,
switch off - a fact of which they are proud.
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social context
At the start of the 21st century rowin evidence of the
environmental impact of our modern lifestyle prompted a
reaction by both overnment and society. The eneral public
reconised the need for action and accepted the overnments
new taation system under which consumption, rather than
salary or spendin, is taed. Nationwide road pricin was also
introduced in 2015.
The urban renaissance which was cautiously predicted in the
2000s has arrived. Economic activity is centred in cities, and
hih-density urban livin has become the norm. Mied-use,
mied-income developments prevail, each with a stron sense
of community. Every urban hub has its own distinct culture,
with cities essentially competin as life-style brands to attract
the best talent and businesses. While reen transport and
communication technoloy is advanced, it does not operate on
a national infrastructure.
the business
From 2010 onwards the public became increasinly sceptical
of bi business raduate recruits wanted to join niche firms
and consumers boycotted irresponsible products. Havin
had a stron corporate responsibility portfolio for a decade,
Coito did not suffer has badly as some competitors. However,
chane was required to maintain the competitive advantae.
Coito now has a structure and workplace moulded around the
moral, social and operational preferences of its people.
To ain the benefits of a smaller firm Coito is divided into 10
sub brands. Located in different cities each operates as an
independent entity. This allows products and staff to be
sourced locally (minimisin costly lon-distance travel) and
provides the small-firm community feel that talented
knowlede workers are seekin. The challene for each of
these sub-units is to differentiate themselves to employees
and clients throuh their vision, values and culture. The board
members joke about the old days when half a pae in the
annual report devoted to values was sufficient to satisfy
recruits and investors.
Coito has a flat oranisational structure, with the workforce
oranised into fleible project teams. An individual may typically
be part of 4 teams simultaneously, takin on a different role in
each, both in terms of responsibility and function - workers are
part of smaller communities within the community.
urban colonies
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Coito believe that workers productivity is fundamentally linked
to a positive state of mind happy workers are productive
workers. (Coito pioneered the Workforce Happiness Inde
as a tool for both measurin productivity and attractin recruits,and it is now commonplace in most businesses). Employees
need variety and stimulation to be creative and will work
hardest when they feel commitment to a common oal.
Coito reularly measures social capital levels amonst its
workforce to monitor the strenth of the community.
At Coito performance reviews and recruitment processes are
subjective. Emotional and intuitive competencies are hihly
valued because they contribute to buildin social capital.
Workers are assessed on the quality of their output as well as
bein rewarded for commitment and operatin by the company
values. Coito holds an annual survey on the preferred bonus
and incentive schemes that workers would value financial
bonuses have not featured hihly for years, but additional
holiday entitlement, improved health-care options, team social
events and personal skills trainin are constantly requested.
the workers
Coito employees have fairly irreular workin patterns as no
one monitors when and where they work, only the quality of the
output. At peak times a week can eceed 60 hours but there
are rarely complaints employees take pride in their work and
would rather do a thorouh job than let their team down.
Plus, net week they miht work 30 hours and no one will mind.
Increasinly people believe that while purchased oods can beeasily imitated, true personal oriinality comes from
developin a unique set of skills and traits. Coito succeeds
larely because it offers employees an opportunity to further
themselves. The company provides a variety of eperiences
with a diverse roup of people, both within and beyond the
realm of work personal coachin is provided and sabbaticals
are encouraed. Practically, this structure means employees
are responsible for their own time and productivity. Assisted by
oranisational technoloical tools they must become eperts
in personal manaement or the quality of their output will
visibly suffer.
Internal meetins are usually carried out face-to-face, it is
enerally held that there is no substitute for personal
interaction. Most commercial relationships are formed with
businesses within the same city so it is easy to walk, cycle or
use public transport to visit them.
urban colonies
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workplace
home
public space
clients workplace
travelling
LOCATION OF WORK FOR AN AVERAgE CITY-BASED
UK KNOWLEDgE WORKER (2030)
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urban colonies
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the workplace
Coito spent 5 years desinin and buildin their own
offices across 10 locations. Each had to be desined around
the needs and personality of each sub-unit, as well as that of
the local community. The board realised that any buildininconruous with the surroundin neihbourhood would
damae their reputation.
The Coito workplace is a selection of areas, from arden to
conventional meetin room, with no clear delineation between
those for work and those for leisure. The barrier between
inside and outside is also blurred workers often hold
meetins in the arden beside school children havin lunch and
local community roups reularly book spare meetin rooms.
The workspaces are desined to inspire both employees and
clients, to facilitate communication and creativity, and foster a
sense of community. Needless to say the sustainability
credentials are best-in-class. Employees view the workplace
as a learnin resource centre, somewhere they come to
echane and form ideas. Coito reconises that learnin very
often stems from casual interaction and so instructed their
architect to map human traffic flows and desin to facilitate
such interactions.
Employees can work when and where they want to, so
theoretically could remain at home every day and only
participate in meetins remotely. However, Coito pride
themselves on how reularly the workplace is used. It is aninspirin, creative place to be, somewhere workers can have
stimulatin interaction with like-minded people.
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social context
Followin decades of delay overnments were finally forced into
action to restrict carbon emissions. A carbon credit scheme
was imposed, providin each individual with a limited
entitlement to use on travel. Now peoples lifestyle choices are
often determined by their access to credits. The taation
system has also been altered to be based on consumption
rather than salary or spendin. Companies must account for all
enery and resource consumption by their employees on site,
includin commutin, and a proportion of their consumption
when workin from home. Citizens are enerally resentful of the
overnments stron handed approach and the restrictions it
imposes on their preferences, but slowly people are learnin to
adapt their behaviour accordinly.
the business
Resource taation has proved a hue challene for lare
oranisations such as Coito. Luckily a comprehensive
sustainability stratey had been put in place in 2005 so Coitowas in a better position than many when restrictions were applied.
In fact they actually benefited from some competitors oin
bankrupt when their hue carbon liabilities were disclosed.
Today a stron corporate responsibility profile and stratey is
not just ood business but essential to remainin profitable.
In most companies the Operations Director is as important as
the CFO in directin the company.
Traditionally Coito had been structured in 3 lare reional
hubs, with staff commutin up to 90 minutes each day. Travel
restrictions quickly made this unfeasible and the oranisation
was dramatically restructured. 30 offices now operate across
the UK with no employee livin more than 10 miles from their
primary site. Coitos challene is to maintain productivity
across these dispersed sites, but investin in leadin ede
communications technoloy has allowed virtual teams to
operate efficiently.
Coito believe workers are most productive when they are
motivated by the vision of their company and when iven the
freedom to use their individual skills. However, the economic
reality (now more than ever) is that employees are a potential
financial liability if not manaed correctly the challene is to
inspire and liberate workers while restrictin their resource use.
good intentions
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Coito uses its scale to take on the individual workers burdens
and make them a common oal for the company. Productivity
is very much the individuals responsibility but resource use is
a collective one. Coito knows that it requires twice as mucheffort and cost to promote efficient resource use throuh
coercion rather than personal obliation to the community.
Workers pool carbon credits to fund company transport
schemes, adapt their workin locations in the office to maimise
efficiency, and constantly seek new process re-enineerin
improvements. In a climate of restricted personal preferences,
reduced face-to-face interaction, and constant penny
pinchin, Coito has succeeded by creatin a enuine and
passionate commitment to reducin its environmental impact.
Today, the unveilin of a new operational improvementproramme is reeted with the scale of enthusiasm which only
used to accompany product launches in the past.
the workers
In every pub and caf people are moanin about the price of
road travel, frettin about not havin enouh carbon credits
to et to work net week and reminiscin about the forein
holidays they used to enjoy. Coito employees feel somewhat
relieved about their situation. Workin at Coito has obvious
perks (such as the company Transit system, access to
personal resource councillors, bein able to socialise in an
office rather than home-work) but the benefits are reater
than that. Coito feels like a community of optimists in a
world of pessimism, a roup of like-minded people who are
ahead of the tide rather than tryin to resist it. True, Coito
employees do work loner than their counterparts elsewhere,
but thats because they are committed to the firm rather thanresentful of it. While other workforces complain about intrusive
technoloy monitorin their resource consumption in the
workplace and at home, Coito employees reconise, and
accept, the need for such tools.
good intentions
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workplace
home
public space
clients workplace
travelling
LOCATION OF WORK FOR AN AVERAgE CITY-BASED
UK KNOWLEDgE WORKER (2030)
LOCATION OF WORK FOR AN AVERAgE COgITO
UK KNOWLEDgE WORKER (2030)
COMPETITOR COMPARISON
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good intentions
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the workplaceIn 2015 Coito had 3 lare reional offices comin to the end of
lon-term leases and after decentralisin was left with massive
ecess capacity on these sites. With home workin becomin
more popular, indeed mandatory in many companies,occupancy of commercial property in the city was plummetin
and commercial rents fell to their lowest for 20 years. Rather
than terminatin its leases, as many companies chose to,
Coito neotiated heavily reduced rents and went about
redesinin its workplaces.
Coito set out to make the workplace a sanctuary from the
burdens of the outside world; the aim to inspire workers,
encourae interaction and support collaboration.
The workplace is clearly desined and branded in line withthe vision and values of the company.
Coitos 3 lare offices have now been epanded into
company campuses. Some key employees, and those who
have relocated, live on site. Others book the free campus
hotel facilities when they work too late to use the Coito
Transit or are on a rare visit from another office. There are cost
benefits to these mied-use developments but it also helps
build a stron corporate culture and sense of community.
Workers ID cards automatically reister their presence on site,
allowin intellient systems to calculate the economical level of
resources required to support the business throuhout the day
and adjust lihtin, ventilation and temperature to an
optimal level. If use of a particular resource is runnin too
hih the workforce is informed the incremental effect of
each worker alterin their behaviour slihtly is usually enouh
to brin levels down to the correct point aain without anyharsher reaction. In contrast, a key competitor, Quondam, has
refused to invest in such technoloy and has suffered a series
of black-outs and electricity cuts without prior warnin. Some
other companies have been forced to resort to a 3 day week to
reduce consumption.
The work areas are hih density to minimise resource use.
As well as bein low cost this layout stimulates collaboration
and creates enery. Leisure facilities are slihtly more spacious
but are used fleibly and only at particular times. For eample,Coito workplaces have hih quality restaurants but food is only
served at two sittins and workers are asked to pre-book.
Usin innovative fleible desin, this space often doubles as
a cinema or sports facility at niht on the mied-use campus
sites. It is testament to the success of Coitos vision that
employees reularly stay on-site after work to use the facilities
with friends who just happen to be colleaues as well.
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leveraging the psychological drivers of productivity
understand and inuence the full range of psychological drivers that impact workforce productivity
meaning matterscreate a clear and inspirin vision to which your workforce is alined
a strong sustainability strategy is not a luxurybusinesses who lead the way today will be best equipped to meet the moral epectations and reulatory
requirements of the future
putting a value on knowledge work
measure and evaluate the output, rather than input, of your knowlede workers
the advent of the strategic workplaceutilise the workplace as a strateic asset in attractin talent, creatin a corporate culture and mouldin
eternal perceptions
work is intrinsically socialdevelop a communications culture which contributes to the strateic objectives of the oranisation
preparing for the future
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perpetual motion
workforce productivity driven primarily by
urban colonies good intentions
goals and rewards collaboration and
personal fulfilment
society and the
environment
1 - meaning
2 - values
3 - optimism
4 - collaboration
5 - confidence
6 - individualism
7 - autonomy
8 - originality
9 - goals
10 - recognition
productivity drivers
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led by PerformanceManagement andTechnology teams
perpetualmotion balancing the trade-off
between productivity andstress levels
succession planning forburn-out and churn
securing access to leadingtechnology
differentiating thecorporate vision & values
creating a coherent culturethroughout decentralised,
independent hubs
inspiring workforcewhile closely monitoringbehaviour
continual improvementof operations and
resource use
led by People andVision teams
led by Operationsteams
meaning goals recognition
meaning values autonomy collaboration
meaning
values optimism originality
additional holiday team social events free training (for any
personal skill)
additions on well-beingpackage
financial bonuses status symbols e.g. car,
foreign holiday
access to on site hotel additional carbon credits financial reward
urbancolonies
goodintentions
company strategy competitive challenges workforceproductivity drivers
employee bonus /incentive schemes
scenario summary
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contribution toprofitability
contribution tonew ideas
contribution tosocial capital
reduction ofresource use
contribution toprofitability
designed to affectemployee behaviour
designed aroundemployee behaviour
designed around
environmental
constraints
30 miles / 20 minutes automated car
10 miles / 35 minutes public transport or
company transit
3 miles / 25 minutes walk or cycle
optimal environmentfor productivity
representation of companystatus, values and vision
element of the lifestylepackage
optimal environment foremployee happiness facilitate communication,
creativity and the growth of
social capital
a learning resource centre maximise resource efficiency representation of vision
and values
optimal environment forresource use (via economies
of scale)
inspire and motivate workers representation of vision
and values
build community
employee performance
measurement
average commuting
time and mode
approach to
workplace design
role of the workplace
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forward thinkin inc. would like to
thank the followin people for their contribution
Alister Wilson, Waverley Consultants
Andrew Curry, The Henley Centre
Bill Sharpe, The Appliance Studio
glenn Lyons, Centre for Transport & Society
Will Stewart, Innos
Michael Moynah, The Tomorrow Project
Phil goodwin, Centre for Transport & Society
Victor Keean, The guardian
Bruce Lloyd, London South Bank University
Martin Cook, BDP
Roer Metellerkamp, IBM
Steve Huhes, Herman Miller
for further information contact
Ann Brewin on:
020 8939 2330
ann.b@forwardthinkininc.com
www.forwardthinkininc.com