Land-Change Modelling: From Remote Sensing to Agent Based Models.

Sérgio Souza Costa Macro Pattern

Timeline of land change analysis

Remote sensing

Changes measure

Landscape Ecology

Pattern analysis

Regression methods

Statistic

Pattern-oriented models (LUCC)

CLUE, DINAMICA ...

Social simulation

Computer Science

Celular automata ABM and Network theory

ABM/LUCC

Eg. LUCITA, SYPRIA

Timeline of land change analysis

Remote sensing

Changes measure

Remote sensing

Timeline of land change analysis

Remote sensing

Changes measure

Timeline of land change analysis

Remote sensing

Changes measure

Landscape Ecology

Pattern analysis

Landscape ecology

Silva et al. (2008) Mota et al. (2009)

4,82 km

São Felix do Xingu. (Google)

Timeline of land change analysis

Remote sensing

Changes measure

Landscape Ecology

Pattern analysis

Timeline of land change analysis

Remote sensing

Changes measure

Landscape Ecology

Pattern analysis

Regression methods

Statistic

Computer Science

Celular automata

Timeline of land change analysis

Remote sensing

Changes measure

Landscape Ecology

Pattern analysis

Regression methods

Statistic

Pattern-oriented models (LUCC)

CLUE, DINAMICA ...

Computer Science

Celular automata ABM – bird flocking

Pattern-oriented models

decision = f (biophysical + socio-economic)

Aguiar et al. (2007)

Pattern-oriented models

●We cannot represent the diversity of the actors in the same region.

●The causal relations cannot be extracted from regression analyses

Aguiar et al. (2007)

decision = f (biophysical + socio-economic)

Timeline of land change analysis

Remote sensing

Changes measure

Landscape Ecology

Pattern analysis

Regression methods

Statistic

Pattern-oriented models (LUCC)

CLUE, DINAMICA ...

Computer Science

Celular automata ABM and Network theory

Timeline of land change analysis

Remote sensing

Changes measure

Landscape Ecology

Pattern analysis

Regression methods

Statistic

Pattern-oriented models (LUCC)

CLUE, DINAMICA ...

Computer Science

Celular automata ABM and Network theory

Agent-based models and network theories

Macro Pattern

Interactions between agents and the environment.

Complexity and Emergence.

Network theories

The network of collaborations between scientists (Newman, 2003)

Timeline of land change analysis

Remote sensing

Changes measure

Landscape Ecology

Pattern analysis

Regression methods

Statistic

Pattern-oriented models (LUCC)

CLUE, DINAMICA ...

Social simulation

Computer Science

Celular automata

ABM/LUCC

Eg. LUCITA, SYPRIA

ABM and Network theory

Social Simulation

http://www.casa.ucl.ac.uk/abm/secondlife/ped_introduction.asp

Second Life: Pedestrian Evacuation Model

Schelling’s Model of Segregation N-Person Prisoner's Dilemma

Low-incomeMiddle-incomeHigh-income

Timeline of land change analysis

Remote sensing

Changes measure

Landscape Ecology

Pattern analysis

Regression methods

Statistic

Pattern-oriented models (LUCC)

CLUE, DINAMICA ...

Social simulation

Computer Science

Celular automata

ABM/LUCC

Eg. LUCITA, SYPRIA

ABM and Network theory

Timeline of land change analysis

Remote sensing

Changes measure

Landscape Ecology

Pattern analysis

Regression methods

Statistic

Pattern-oriented models (LUCC)

CLUE, DINAMICA ...

Social simulation

Computer Science

Celular automata

ABM/LUCC

Eg. LUCITA, SYPRIA

ABM and Network theory

Agent-based models – Previous work

Agent-based models for Land Change

Designed Environment (Social laboratory)

Small extension (sample survey)

Eg. LUCITA, MAMELUKE ..Eg. SLUDGE, SOME, FEARLUS ..

Sludge ModelParker (2004)

Agricultura

Urban