From: David Kaplan [mailto:dmkaplan@ucdavis.edu] Sent ...

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MLPA Science Advisory TeamJanuary 20, 2006 Meeting

Handout #11

-----Original Message-----From: David Kaplan [mailto:dmkaplan@ucdavis.edu]Sent: Wednesday, January 18, 2006 2:44 PM

To: Melissa Miller-HensonCc: Loo BotsfordSubject: From Botsford/ Kaplan: Persistence/connectivity Analysis

SAT members:

Attached are the results of our analyses of the effects of the spatial patterns of the differentreserve proposals on population persistence. The plots can be viewed as the effectiveness ofreproduction at each location in terms of how likely an individual is to replace themselves.

We have taken 0.35 to be the level at which populations will persist.

In this version we specifically account for the effects of the spatial distribution of habitat, in this

case hard habitat. Based on discussions at the last meeting of the evaluation team wedivided the hard habitat into 0-30m depth and 30-100m depth. We can use otherdemarcations. Ideally these should be associated with specific species or communities. The

SAT should discuss this choice.

We also account specifically for the level of fishing outside of reserves. We represent theeffects of fishing in terms of the remaining Fraction of Lifetime Egg Production (FLEP), withlevels of 0.0, 0.2 and 0.3. Recall estimates for some rockfish were as low as 0.2. (To give

some idea of how FLEP in the fished area would change we have computed the newequilibrium value for various percentages of change in F (Page 20 of these plots).

As before, we have made the runs for two reserve cases, SMR only and all 3 types of MPAs.

The first several slides explain the setup of the runs and the graphics, and show the

information we are using. Most important there is the degree of overlap between reservesand suitable habitat. The rest are the results. >From them you can see where there isenough connectivity that species with different dispersal distances are likely to persist

(i.e., where the appropriate line goes above the .35 level). As you saw in earlier results, shortdistance dispersers persist almost everywhere there is a reserve, so the lines for the longerdistance dispersers are the most interesting.

Like the other groups, we have not done an overall evaluation of these results for the different

proposals. We hope we can discuss this at the SAT meeting. These results are a draft forthe SAT only at this point. This is NOT the version we will show to the BRTF. We are workingon more easily accessible summary graphics to use once the SAT decides what the

message should be.

Loo Botsford and David Kaplan

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