From Constants to Variables How the coming together of geophysical, geoeconomic, and geopolitical changes may affect the Nordic Region

Cleo PaskalAssociate Fellow, Royal Institute of International Affairs, London

Author, Global Warring: How Environmental, Economic, and Political

Crises Will Redraw the World Map (Palgrave Macmillan, 2010)

Seas the futureNordic Oceans Conference, Nordic House, 7 June 2011

Is the Faroe Islands part of the Arctic?

What are the geophysical changes in the Arctic?

What are the economic changes in the Arctic?

Actual Arctic major oil & gas fields with projected shipping routes

Undiscovered Arctic oil fields

Undiscovered Arctic gas fields

What are the geopolitical changes in the Arctic?

What are corporate priorities?Meeting between U.S. Officials and

Gazprom's Director of Foreign Relations, Ivan Zolotov Sept. 19. 2008

• Gazprom's Director of Foreign Relations, Ivan Zolotov– to fulfill the gas needs of domestic industrial and residential

consumers – to fulfill its "social obligations," which include a variety of, in

effect, charitable projects throughout the country.

• Americans– maximizing shareholder value?

• Gazprom’s Zolotov:– to maximize control over global energy resources

Bringing together geophysical, economic and geopolitics changes

Sample of effect of thawing permafrost

Energy infrastructure on permafrost

Blue: Electrical transmission linesYellow: Pipelines Red: Bilibino nuclear power station

Source: Nature

Potential implications of permafrost thaw (one scenario)

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Overland transmission becomes difficult/expensive as pipelines become unstable.

More flexible delivery system, potentially more subject to political factors

China

• Already has research bases in Antarctic and Arctic.

• Already has icebreaker.

• Large number of Chinese nationals working in Siberia.

• Actively courting Canadian Aboriginal leaders.

Fall of 2008, around 25 Canadian Aboriginal leaders invited to China. Some quotes:

• Delegation head Chief Calvin Helin "Canadian aboriginals own or control about a third of the Canadian land mass." Went to Beijing to "tell China that Aboriginal Canada was open for business.”

• Chief Helin told Chinese political and business leaders "The biggest source for uncertainty for developing natural resources in Canada is aboriginal land claims. If aboriginal people are your partners, that uncertainty disappears.”

• Chief Glenn Hudson of Manitoba's Peguis Indian Band explained that the trip was "an important step for us in moving forward. Our future is not only in Canada, but partnering with other countries."

Challenges Going Forward

– Environmental damage– S&R costs– Border security– Disruptions to traditional economies– Outsiders seeking to destabilize internal politics for short-term

advantage– Eco-protests

Ways Forward

The changes will bring costs and benefits. The Faroes will be sharing the cost anyway, so might as well share in the benefits

for a more stable future.

Thank youTakk