French contribution to T-NAWDEX

G. Rivière, P. Arbogast

CNRM-GAME, CNRS & Météo-France

Karlsruhe, 03/20/2013

French teams / labs involved in T-NAWDEX topics

CNRM-GAME (Joint lab between Météo-France and CNRS)

• Dynamical synoptic meteorology (P. Arbogast, G. Rivière, A. Joly, M. Drouard, B. Coronel)

• Adaptive observations / assimilation (N. Fourrié, A. Doerenbecher)

• Ensemble prediction (C. Labadie, P. Cebron, B. Joly)

Laboratoire d’aérologie

• Mesoscale group (E. Richard, J-P. Chaboureau, D. Lambert, S. Fresnay)

Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique

• Mesoscale and synoptic meteorology (C. Claud, G. Lapeyre)

Recent activitiesCNRS-INSU project: EPIGONE (Excitation, propagation and impact of the North Atlantic waveguide over Europe, 2010-2012).

Idealized case study

Winter storm case studies using operational forecast model

Storm Xynthia

3 PhDs:

• Trajectory and deepening of extratropical storms (L. Oruba)

• Extratropical transition of tropical cyclones (F. Pantillon)

• Rossby wave breaking and Atlantic weather regime transitions (C. Michel)

Analysis of hurricane Helene (use of very-high resol NH model over the whole Atlantic)

Current activities and near futureDYNASTIE (DYNamics of the Atlantic Storm-Track and its Impact over Europe) ; submitted to ANR; 3 years (2014-2016); requested funds: 340 k€.

Main objectives:

• To analyze the dynamics and predictability of the North Atlantic waveguide from various numerical approaches

• To prepare scientific questions to address during T-NAWDEX

Potential airborne measurements: Falcon 20 (mid- to upper troposphere)

Flying performances:• Usual cruising speed : 150 m/s (min 82m/s max 254 m/s)

• Max. endurance: 5 h

• Max range: 4100 km

• Ceiling: 42 000 ft (12000 m)

Possible measurements:• Radar RASTA reflectivity

(IWC, droplet size)

• Lidar « retrodiffusion » (semi-transparent cloud, BL)

• Drop sonde launching (profiles of T, p, hum, u, v, w)

Time (h)

Hei

ght (

km)

Potential airborne measurements: ATR 42 (low to mid-troposphere

Flying performances:

• Usual cruising speed : 100m/s (min 70m/s max 134 m/s)• Max. endurance: 6 h• Max range at 4000m: 3000km• Ceiling: 25000 ft (7500 m)

Examples of measurements:

• In-situ microphysics (cloud liquid water content, droplet size)

• Turbulence (heat fluxes, momentum flux)

French contribution to measurements: Boundary-layer Balloons

Aeroclipper: Need of convergent winds to attract the balloon into the system of interest (first success for a tropical cyclone, Vasco, 2007). Sampling at 50m.

Usefulness for sampling starting regions of warm conveyor belts in the boundary layer ?

Météo-France forecast products: deterministic forecasts of the global model

Deterministic forecast from a global model (ARPEGE)

Web site dedicated to the

DIAMET field campaign

Probable resolution in 2016: 7 km over Western Europe

Météo-France forecast products: ensemble forecast

Ensemble forecast from the global ARPEGE model (35 members; cyclone trajectories)

Probable resolution in 2016: ~10 km over Western Europe

Météo-France forecast products: satellite data inversion

Relative humidity satellite retrieval

Relative humidity analysis

longitude

lati

tude

pres

sure

pres

sure

longitude

Microwave humidity sounder from IASI

Other potential forecast productsSensitivity to PV anomalies on real time.

Example of winter storm Klaus: tropopause height

Operational forecast Modified forecast

Wind speed at 10m

Observations

Concluding remarks / questions

• Boundary-layer balloons potentially useful for ETs Choice of the period (Fall, winter ?).

• Aircrafts with a lesser range more adapted for downstream impact over Europe (sting jets ?)

• funding issues: Balloons (CNES), aircrafts (ANR?, FP7-8) ?