Forecasts and Monitoring System based on WRF model simulations over La Plata Basin

Omar. V. Müller and Miguel A. Lovino, CEVARCAM, FICH, UNL – CONICET. Argentina. ovmuller@unl.edu.ar E. Hugo Berbery, CICS-MD, ESSIC, UMD. USA. berbery@umd.edu

2nd WCRP Summer School on Climate Model Development: Scale aware parameterization for representing sub-grid scale processes – Cachoeira Paulista - SP, Brazil, 22nd - 31st January 2018

3. Evaluation of rain and temperature

A routine forecasts and monitoring system was developed for South America. It is availabe since 2012 on www.cevarcam.unl.edu.ar/en/forecast and www.atmos.umd.edu/~berbery/research/forecasts

droughts, wet spells rainy events, hot or cold waves, …

1. Forecasts and Monitoring System

Variables:

Precipitation

Temperature

Winds

Evapotranspiration

Soil Moisture

Runoff

2. Applications

6. ReferencesMüller, O. V., Lovino, M. E., Berbery, E. H., (2016). Evaluation of WRF Model Forecasts and Their Use for Hydroclimate Monitoring over Southern South America. Weather and Forecsasting, 31, 1001–1017.

7. AcknowledgmentsThis research was carried out with the support of CRN3035 and CRN3095 projects from the Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research (IAI) supported by the US NSF.

142 observations sites to evaluate 2 years of forecasts. First, contingency tables are computed for each forecasted day and each rain gauge

Observed YES Observed NO Total

Forecasts YES Hits (h) False alarms (fa) Forecasts YES

Forecasts NO Misses (m) Correct negatives (cn) Forecasts NO

Total Observed YES Observed NO Total

Then, a set of skill scores are calculated to evaluate the performance of precipitation forecasts

4. Monitoring

193 observations sites to evaluate daily min, mean and max temperature. The skill scores are correlation coefficients and mean absolute error.

5. Conclusions The system show high prediction performance with 7-day lead time ~ 70% of rain and no-rain days are correctly predicted. Temperature observations and forecasts are highly correlated (r>0.80) The model products demonstrated its ability to reproduce and complements the observed drought in southern Brazil and the above normal precipitation in northeastern Argentina during the spring of 2014.

* Upper LPB presented lower rain events than usual (a). It was notably simulated by the model (b), which complements the observations showing the deficit of SM, EVT, and R that reduced the river flows and the provision of water to metropolitan areas.* Lower LPB presents above normal precipitation events (c). The model shows that the wet anomalies was partitioned between EVT, SM, and R (d). This condition favored the planting of corn and soybean in high terrain, but it produced losses over lowlands.

Weather forecasting and monitoring systems based on regional models are becoming increasingly relevant for decision support in agricultureand water management, but HOW RELIABLE ARE THESE FORECASTS?

Goal: To evaluate the predictive and monitoring capabilities of the real-time forecast system based on numerical simulations with the WRF Model

in a region of high agricultural productivity and water needs.

Monitoring of wet spell or drought Forecasts of weather events

Rain storms

Heat waves

15 km

Weed growth risk Flow forecasts

45 km

Results: