Post on 14-Mar-2018
Policy Architects International 1
Force Modernization Trends -India and Pakistan
Rodney W. JonesRodney W. JonesAPCSS Conference on Conventional Arms APCSS Conference on Conventional Arms
Rivalry in Asia Rivalry in Asia –– Pacific RegionPacific RegionOctober 23October 23--25, 2001 25, 2001
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Conditions of Regional Security
nnConventionalConventional--nuclear interacts in 1990snuclear interacts in 1990snnSlowSlow--burn “arms race” exists in South Asia burn “arms race” exists in South Asia nnChina is factor in South Asian rivalryChina is factor in South Asian rivalrynn Internal threats are salientInternal threats are salientnnTerrorism is endemic, not newTerrorism is endemic, not newnnRMA? burroRMA? burro--gait, no stalliongait, no stallion--gallupgallupnnAsymmetric vs. US? No. Each other? Yes.Asymmetric vs. US? No. Each other? Yes.
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Conventional arms modernization
nnhardware hardware -- combat equipment, EW, Ccombat equipment, EW, C33
nn software software -- strategy, planning, doctrine, ITstrategy, planning, doctrine, ITnnorganization organization -- command and personnel command and personnel
quality, rational task allocation, morale, quality, rational task allocation, morale, adaptabilityadaptability
nn indigenous R&Dindigenous R&Dnnbudget and procurement rationality budget and procurement rationality
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Geopolitical watersheds
nn Independence challengesIndependence challengesnn Cold War problems and opportunitiesCold War problems and opportunitiesnn IndoIndo--Pakistani wars of 1965 and 1971Pakistani wars of 1965 and 1971nn Energy Security: 1973 OPEC challengeEnergy Security: 1973 OPEC challengenn Crescent of Crisis: Iran and AfghanistanCrescent of Crisis: Iran and Afghanistannn Cold War transition and Soviet demiseCold War transition and Soviet demisenn 1991 Gulf War1991 Gulf Warnn Nuclear transitionNuclear transition
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Defense Budgets and Burdens
nnComparing India and Pakistan, 1970Comparing India and Pakistan, 1970--20002000nnDefense expenditures Defense expenditures -- in US dollarsin US dollarsnnDefense expenditures Defense expenditures -- as % of GDPas % of GDPnnComparing India and China, 1979Comparing India and China, 1979--2000 …2000 …nn estimates of defense expenditureestimates of defense expenditure
Chart 1. Defense Expenditures, India and Pakistan, 1970-2000
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year
US
Dol
lars
in B
illio
ns
India Def Exp excludingparamilitary, atomic energyand space
India Def Exp includingparamilitary, atomic energy,and space
Pakistan Def Budget
Pakistan Def Expend
NuclearTests
1971War
Soviets intervenein Afghanistan
Soviet exit
Kashmirinsurgency
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Chart 1 I-P Defense Expenditures, 1970-2000: Noteworthy Watersheds and Trends (1)
nn Slope of Indian increase high, Pakistani gradualSlope of Indian increase high, Pakistani gradualnn II--P ratio changes from 2:1 (1970) to 4+:1 (1999)P ratio changes from 2:1 (1970) to 4+:1 (1999)nn Pak exp drops after 71 war and 91Pak exp drops after 71 war and 91 PresslerPressler cutoffcutoffnn Pak budgets and actual exp diverge (postPak budgets and actual exp diverge (post--96)96)nn Pak under severe duress after Soviet exit from Pak under severe duress after Soviet exit from
Afghanistan, when US pulls plug on assistance, Afghanistan, when US pulls plug on assistance, and Cold War is overand Cold War is over
nn Pak abovePak above--budget expenditures: nuclear? Taliban? budget expenditures: nuclear? Taliban?
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Chart 1 I-P Defense Expenditures, 1970-2000 -Watersheds and Trends continued (2)
nn Indian def exp doubles in 1970s, again in 1980sIndian def exp doubles in 1970s, again in 1980snn Why? Because Soviets intervened in Afghanistan?Why? Because Soviets intervened in Afghanistan?nn Or because Soviets “bought India out”?Or because Soviets “bought India out”?nn Indian exp rose at unprecedented pace in 1980sIndian exp rose at unprecedented pace in 1980snn Then dropped after Soviet exit …Then dropped after Soviet exit …nn Despite insurgency in KashmirDespite insurgency in Kashmirnn Then rose sharply again in 1993 (econ growth?)Then rose sharply again in 1993 (econ growth?)nn Jumped phenomenally in 1999 (BJP? nuclear?) Jumped phenomenally in 1999 (BJP? nuclear?)
Chart 2. Defense Expenditures as Per Cent of GDP - India and Pakistan, 1970-2000
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1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year
Per C
ent o
f GDP
PakistanIndia
1971War
Soviets intervenein Afghanistan
Sovietexit
Kashmirinsurgency
India's economic
growth accelerates
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Chart 2 India-Pakistan Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP
nn Pak % of GDP closer to India’s in 1970Pak % of GDP closer to India’s in 1970nn Pak profile jagged after loss of East Pakistan GDPPak profile jagged after loss of East Pakistan GDPnn Pak burden rises after Soviets occupy AfghanistanPak burden rises after Soviets occupy Afghanistannn Continues up after Soviet exit, till 92Continues up after Soviet exit, till 92--93 …93 …nn Then drops as economy labors in 1990sThen drops as economy labors in 1990snn India’s profile less volatile, but climbs 93India’s profile less volatile, but climbs 93--9999
Chart 3. Comparison of Chinese and Indian Defense Expenditure, 1980-2000
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Year
US Dollars in Billions
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
China Def Exp
India Def Exp
Cold Warends
Nucleartests
Kashmirinsurgency
Sovietsexit
Afghan-istan
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Chart 3 Chinese and Indian Defense Expenditure -1980-2000
nn Chinese slope is down until Cold War endsChinese slope is down until Cold War endsnn ChinaChina--India ratio drops from 5:1 to 2.3:1India ratio drops from 5:1 to 2.3:1nn Then Chinese expenditures climb (econ growth?)Then Chinese expenditures climb (econ growth?)nn Indian expenditures drop briefly after 1990Indian expenditures drop briefly after 1990nn Then Indian expenditures climb, fast …Then Indian expenditures climb, fast …nn But not quite as fast as China’sBut not quite as fast as China’snn Are they linked? Big Russian sales to both!Are they linked? Big Russian sales to both!
Chart 4. Composition of India's and Pakistan's Air Forces 1980-2000
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1980 1990 1995 2000 1980 1990 1995 2000Year
Combat Aircraft
Attack Helicopters
Strategic Bombers
Naval Cbt Aircraft
Nuclear-Capable
High-Performance
Vintage Fighters
720
903939
836strategic bombercapability
233 nuclear-capabletactical aircraft
306
446406
329
India Pakistan
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Chart 4. India and Pakistan - Air Forces, 1980-2000
nn “Vintage” combat aircraft dominate until 1980“Vintage” combat aircraft dominate until 1980nn Modernization jumps sharply from 1980Modernization jumps sharply from 1980--19901990nn HighHigh--performance and nuclearperformance and nuclear--capable dominatecapable dominatenn India’s superiority increases vs. Pakistan …India’s superiority increases vs. Pakistan …nn Especially in highEspecially in high--performance, groundperformance, ground--attackattacknn India adds “strategic” (longIndia adds “strategic” (long--range) aircraftrange) aircraftnn IAF doctrine to preempt airfields …IAF doctrine to preempt airfields …nn Nuclear instability?Nuclear instability?
Aircraft Type Operating Radius Inventory Supplier (km, unrefueled)
India
ModernSu-30 MK 1,200 40 RussiaMirage 2000H/TH 1,475 35 France/UKJaguar S(I) 900 88 France/UKMiG-29 (Fulcrum) 630 64 RussiaVintageMiG-21 MF/PFMA 250 69 RussiaMiG-23 BN/UM 350 53 RussiaMiG-27 (Flogger) 390 147 RussiaStrategic (Long-Range)Tu-142 (Bear F) ASW 6,200 8 RussiaIlyushin-38 (marit recon) 3,600 5 RussiaTu-22M (Backfire) 4,430 4 Russia
Total 513
Pakistan
ModernF-16 A/B 850 25 USVintageMirage IIIEP 500 16 FranceMirage 5 500 52 France
Total 93
Table 1. Nuclear-Capable Strike and Reconnaissance Aircraft India and Pakistan - 2000
Chart 5. Composition of India's and Pakistan's Ground Forces -Armor and Artillery, 1979-2000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
1979 1985 1990 1992 1996 2000 1979 1985 1990 1992 1996 2000
Year
Vehicles and Systems
Short-range BallisticMissiles (SRBMs)
Multiple Rocket Launchers(MRLs)
Self-propelled Artillery (SPs)
Armored Infantry FightingVehicles (AIFVs)
Armored Personnel Carriers(APCs)
Modern 'Main Battle Tanks'(MBTs)
Vintage Tanks
Tanks in storage
India Pakista
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Chart 5 India and Pakistan, Armor and Artillery -1979 to 2000
nn Vintage vs. modern (e.g., selfVintage vs. modern (e.g., self--propelled artillery)propelled artillery)nn India modernizes rapidly 1979India modernizes rapidly 1979--90, MBTs,90, MBTs, AIFVsAIFVsnn PakistaniPakistani reequipmentreequipment much slower, less potentmuch slower, less potentnn Quantitative balance roughly constantQuantitative balance roughly constantnn Qualitative balance worse for Pakistan after 1990Qualitative balance worse for Pakistan after 1990nn Indian ground force coordination makes stridesIndian ground force coordination makes stridesnn SurfaceSurface--toto--surface missiles being introducedsurface missiles being introducednn India with strategic depth, Pakistan narrowIndia with strategic depth, Pakistan narrow
Chart 6. India's and Pakistan's Naval Forces, 1980-2000
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20
40
60
80
100
120
1980 1990 1992 1995 2000 1980 1990 1992 1995 2000
Year
Naval Combat Vessels
Mine Warfare Vessels
Coastal Combatants
Nuclear Submarines
Modern Submarines
Vintage Submarines
Aircraft Carriers
Modern Surface Ships:DDGs, FFs
Vintage Surface Ships
India
Pakistan
Blue Waterfleet
Coastalfleet
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Chart 6 India and Pakistan Naval Forces 1980-2000
nn Vintage vs. modernVintage vs. modernnn Indian “blueIndian “blue--water” fleet increasing slowlywater” fleet increasing slowlynn Pakistani navy actually shrinkingPakistani navy actually shrinkingnn India acquires modern diesel submarines 1980India acquires modern diesel submarines 1980--9090nn India upgrades surface missile ships after 1990India upgrades surface missile ships after 1990nn India seeks nuclearIndia seeks nuclear--powered submarines, futurepowered submarines, futurenn India’s aircraft carriers and SSN/SSBN plans India’s aircraft carriers and SSN/SSBN plans
indicate power project ambitions, but slow resultsindicate power project ambitions, but slow results
Chart 6.2 India's and Pakistan's Naval Air and Airborne Warning1980-2000
33 41
68
37
27
73
75
72
17
46
40
5
0
2
4
545291310
6
5
8
43
0
0
0
00
0
50
100
150
200
250
1980 1990 1995 2000 1980 1990 1995 2000
Year
Aircraft
AEW-AWACAircraft
ASW PatrolAircraft
Naval ArmedHelicopters
Naval CombatAircraft
India Pakistan
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Chart 6.2 India and Pakistan Naval Air and AEW
nn Shows efforts to build up naval capabilitiesShows efforts to build up naval capabilitiesnn Indian emphasis on ASW and AEW aircraftIndian emphasis on ASW and AEW aircraftnn India also has trouble sustaining naval combat airIndia also has trouble sustaining naval combat airnn But Pakistan has very thin naval air capabilitiesBut Pakistan has very thin naval air capabilitiesnn Pakistan vulnerable to blockadePakistan vulnerable to blockade
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7. Space and Air Surveillance
nnIndiaIndiann remote sensing satellitesremote sensing satellitesnn 88 TuTu--142M Bear142M Bearnn 5 Il5 Il--38 maritime38 maritime reconnreconnnn 1919 DornierDornier--228228 reconnreconnnn 4 HS4 HS--748 AEW748 AEWnn 8 MiG8 MiG--25R/U photograph25R/U photographnn 55 TuTu--22M3 to lease22M3 to lease
nnPakistanPakistannn satellite in developmentsatellite in developmentnn no counterpartno counterpartnn no counterpartno counterpartnn 33--4 Atlantique4 Atlantiquenn no counterpartno counterpartnn no counterpartno counterpartnn no counterpartno counterpart
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8. India and Pakistan Air Force Procurement
nnIndiaIndiann SuSu--30MK FGA (new)30MK FGA (new)nn Jaguar FGA (upgrading)Jaguar FGA (upgrading)nn Mirage 2000 (more,Mirage 2000 (more, upgrupgr))nn MiGMiG--21 FGA (21 FGA (upgrupgr))nn LCA (develop, since 83)LCA (develop, since 83)nn AstraAstra AAMAAMnn HSHS--748, ELINT748, ELINTnn NishantNishant UAVsUAVs
nnPakistanPakistannn FCFC--1, FGA (China)1, FGA (China)nn FF--7MG, FGA (China)7MG, FGA (China)nn MirageMirage--3 (upgrade)3 (upgrade)
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8 (cont) India and Pakistan - Air Force Procurement
nn IndiaIndiann SearcherSearcher--2 UAV (Israel)2 UAV (Israel)nn IlIl--78, tanker aircraft78, tanker aircraftnn HJTHJT--36 trainers (36 trainers (domestdomest))nn IskraIskra TSTS--11 trainer (11 trainer (PolPol))
nnPakistanPakistan
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9. India and Pakistan - Navy Procurement
nn IndiaIndiann Adm GorshkovAdm Gorshkov A/CarrierA/Carriernn SSN (ATV) for 2007SSN (ATV) for 2007nn Kilo SSK subs (Russia)Kilo SSK subs (Russia)nn Type 209 subs (Germany)Type 209 subs (Germany)nn DelhiDelhi DDsDDs (domestic)(domestic)nn Brahmaputra FFGsBrahmaputra FFGs ((domdom))nn KrivakKrivak FF (Russia)FF (Russia)nn KoraKora FSG corvette (Russ)FSG corvette (Russ)
nnPakistanPakistannn no counterpartno counterpartnn no counterpartno counterpartnn Khalid SSK subs (France)Khalid SSK subs (France)
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9. India and Pakistan Naval Procurement cont
nn IndiaIndiann SuperSuper DvoraDvora TT--81 fast 81 fast
patrol craft (Israel)patrol craft (Israel)nn Harrier TMk4 (UK)Harrier TMk4 (UK)nn PP--3C Orion maritime 3C Orion maritime
patrol ASW (US)patrol ASW (US)nn DornierDornier--228 (Germany)228 (Germany)nn KK--31 EW31 EW heliheli (Russia)(Russia)nn Magyar LST Magyar LST
nnPakistanPakistannn ShujatShujat fast patrolfast patrol crcr (PRC)(PRC)
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10. India Pakistan Army Procurement
nn IndiaIndiann TT--90 MBT (Russia)90 MBT (Russia)nn ArjunArjun MBT (domestic)MBT (domestic)nn CasspirCasspir APC (S. Africa)APC (S. Africa)nn MiMi--17iB17iB heliheli (Russia)(Russia)nn Nag ATGW (Nag ATGW (domestdomest))nn MM--46 artillery46 artillery upgrupgr (Israel(Israelnn 2S6 self2S6 self--prop AA (Russia)prop AA (Russia)nn TT--72VT, armored recover72VT, armored recover
nnPakistanPakistannn TT--80UD MBT (Ukraine)80UD MBT (Ukraine)nn MM--113 APC (US)113 APC (US)nn AlAl--Khalid MBT (Khalid MBT (domestdomest))
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11. India’s Modernization Summary
nn Slow but steadySlow but steadynn Import dependent for firstImport dependent for first--line equipment, despite line equipment, despite
domestic R&D programsdomestic R&D programsnn Breadth and depth in capabilities, e.g. surveillanceBreadth and depth in capabilities, e.g. surveillancenn Blue water naval ambitions, eyes bigger than Blue water naval ambitions, eyes bigger than
stomachstomachnn Air and ground forces potent vs. PakistanAir and ground forces potent vs. Pakistannn Russia main supplier, some European, IsraeliRussia main supplier, some European, Israeli
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12. Pakistan’s Modernization Summary
nn Technical modernization is slowTechnical modernization is slownn Dependent on China for most new equipmentDependent on China for most new equipmentnn Some aircraft upgrades from EuropeSome aircraft upgrades from Europenn Falling far behind India in surveillance and Falling far behind India in surveillance and
connectivityconnectivitynn Vulnerability to preemptive conventional air Vulnerability to preemptive conventional air
attack is destabilizingattack is destabilizingnn Incentive to rely on unconventional warfareIncentive to rely on unconventional warfare
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13. Policy Implications
nn Conventional military imbalance Conventional military imbalance -- unstableunstablenn Asymmetry is worsening for PakistanAsymmetry is worsening for Pakistannn Pakistan’s nuclear threshold is droppingPakistan’s nuclear threshold is droppingnn Pakistan highly dependent on ChinaPakistan highly dependent on Chinann Pakistan, unconventional incentives growingPakistan, unconventional incentives growingnn US war against terrorism is opportunity to provide US war against terrorism is opportunity to provide
relief on Afghanistan and economyrelief on Afghanistan and economynn Is conventional rebalancing possible?Is conventional rebalancing possible?