Post on 06-Mar-2018
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Presented By Bob O'Brien
FOODSERVICECONSUMPTION
AROUND THE WORLD
NPD Group Foodservice
Proprietary and Confidential
Global Foodservice Opportunities
Big Markets, Low Growth
Growing Markets, Small and Fragmented
Lack of “Global” tastes
Promise & Challenge
Proprietary and Confidential
3
CRESTCREST Pilot
Foodservice markets tracked by the NPD Group
United States
Proprietary and Confidential
Big
Proprietary and Confidential
USA42%
Canada5%
Australia4%
Great Britain8%
Germany9%
France6%
Spain5%
Italy8%
Japan11%
China1%
Russia2%
45M
Foodservice expenditures are sizable, but there is opportunity for growth
Source: The NPD Group/ CREST Japan based on Tokyo/Osaka areas onlyYear ending June 2011 except Canada (Year Ending May 2011)
Share of Consumer Expenditures (Euros)
*CREST Russia Pilot Database. Fielded during 2 weeks in Oct. 2010
46M
82M
65M
60M
62 M
142M
312M
21M
34M1.3B
128M
Big Markets, Low Growth
Proprietary and Confidential
Developed
Proprietary and Confidential
The share of chain vs. independent restaurants varies around the world
Share of Visits
Source: The NPD Group/ CREST Japan Population based on Tokyo/Osaka areas onlyYear ending June 2011 except Canada (Year Ending May 2011)
*CREST Russia Pilot Database. Fielded during 2 weeks in Oct. 2010
Big Markets, Low Growth
Proprietary and Confidential
Slow
Proprietary and Confidential
Traffic fell for the second consecutive quarter
Traffic % Change vs. Year Ago
Total Restaurants
Source: The NPD Group / CREST ®
Big Markets, Low Growth
Proprietary and Confidential
10
CRESTCREST Pilot
Foodservice markets tracked by the NPD Group
Europe
Proprietary and Confidential
Big
Proprietary and Confidential
USA42%
Canada5%
Australia4%
Great Britain8%
Germany9%
France6%
Spain5%
Italy8%
Japan11%
China1%
Russia2%
45M
Foodservice expenditures are sizable, but there is opportunity for growth
Source: The NPD Group/ CREST Japan based on Tokyo/Osaka areas onlyYear ending June 2011 except Canada (Year Ending May 2011)
Share of Consumer Expenditures (Euros)
*CREST Russia Pilot Database. Fielded during 2 weeks in Oct. 2010
46M
82M
65M
60M
62 M
142M
312M
21M
34M1.3B
128M
Big Markets, Low Growth
Proprietary and Confidential
Consumers in Europe visit restaurants less frequently than those in Japan and China
Source: The NPD Group/ CREST Japan Population based on Tokyo/Osaka areas onlyYear ending June 2011 except Canada (Year Ending May 2011)
Annual Visits Per Person To Commercial Restaurants
196 195209
146
10892
142
178
356
226
USA Canada Australia Great Britain Germany France Spain Italy Japan China
Big Markets, Low Growth
Proprietary and Confidential
Fragmented
Proprietary and Confidential
Foodservice expenditures are sizable, but there is opportunity for growth
Source: The NPD Group/ CREST Japan based on Tokyo/Osaka areas onlyYear ending June 2011 except Canada (Year Ending May 2011)
Share of Consumer Expenditures (Euros)
*CREST Russia Pilot Database. Fielded during 2 weeks in Oct. 2010
46M
82M
65M
60M
62 M
142M
312M
21M
34M1.3B
128M
USA42%
Canada5%
Australia4%
Great Britain8%
Germany9%
France6%
Spain5%
Italy8%
Japan11%
China1%
Russia2%
45M
Big Markets, Low Growth
Proprietary and Confidential
Chains play a much smaller role in Europe than they do in North America
Share of Visits
Source: The NPD Group/ CREST Japan Population based on Tokyo/Osaka areas onlyYear ending June 2011 except Canada (Year Ending May 2011)
*CREST Russia Pilot Database. Fielded during 2 weeks in Oct. 2010
Big Markets, Low Growth
Proprietary and Confidential
Slow
Proprietary and Confidential
18
Total Commercial Fodservice Traffic ChangeBig 5
Source: npdgroup deutschland GmbH / CREST® Propriertary and Confidential
Big Markets, Low Growth
The European market is still a long way off from recovering from the effects of the global crisis.
Proprietary and Confidential
19Source: npdgroup deutschland GmbH / CREST® Propriertary and Confidential
Total Commercial Fodservice Traffic ChangeBig 5
pcya
Big Markets, Low Growth
Spain remains far weaker than the rest of Europe
Proprietary and Confidential
20
CRESTCREST Pilot
Foodservice markets tracked by the NPD Group
Japan
Proprietary and Confidential
Big
Proprietary and Confidential
USA42%
Canada5%
Australia4%
Great Britain8%
Germany9%
France6%
Spain5%
Italy8%
Japan11%
China1%
Russia2%
45M
Foodservice expenditures are sizable, but there is opportunity for growth
Source: The NPD Group/ CREST Japan based on Tokyo/Osaka areas onlyYear ending June 2011 except Canada (Year Ending May 2011)
Share of Consumer Expenditures (Euros)
*CREST Russia Pilot Database. Fielded during 2 weeks in Oct. 2010
46M
82M
65M
60M
62 M
142M
312M
21M
34M1.3B
128M
Big Markets, Low Growth
Proprietary and Confidential
Fragmented
Proprietary and Confidential
The dominance of Chains makes it appear that the Japanese market is not too fragmented.
Share of Visits
Source: The NPD Group/ CREST Japan Population based on Tokyo/Osaka areas onlyYear ending June 2011 except Canada (Year Ending May 2011)
*CREST Russia Pilot Database. Fielded during 2 weeks in Oct. 2010
Big Markets, Low Growth
Proprietary and Confidential
Retail
Full Service
QSR
OnSite*
Total Industry Distribution of TrafficQ3 2011
Big Markets, Low Growth
The dominance of chains in Japan is really a reflection of the strength of the C-Store channel. Restaurants tend to be independents
Proprietary and Confidential
Slow
Proprietary and Confidential
The Japanese market had just started to recover from the “Lehman Crisis” when the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami hit
Traffic % Change vs. Year Ago
Total Restaurants
Source: The NPD Group / CREST ®
Big Markets, Low Growth
Proprietary and Confidential
Global Foodservice Opportunities
Big Markets, Low Growth
Growing Markets, Small and Fragmented
Lack of “Global” tastes
Promise & Challenge
Proprietary and Confidential
29
CRESTCREST Pilot
Foodservice markets tracked by the NPD Group
Mexico
Brazil
China
India
Russia
Proprietary and Confidential
BRIC
Brazil
Russia
IndiaChina
Proprietary and Confidential
31
The Russian foodservice market is more chain-oriented than most European markets
Total AFH – Chains vs Independents (in %)
6453
32
3647
68
RU GB Germany
Independents
Chains
Source: CREST Russia Pilot Database. Fielded during 2 weeks in Oct. 2010
Growing Markets, Small and Fragmented
Proprietary and Confidential
32
290.1
56.6 53.6 52.5 49.4 37.915.0
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
US Germany Italy UK France Spain Russia*
The Russian Foodservice market has a plenty of room for growth compared to Western countries
Foodservice market sizes est. (Total Industry AFH in € billions)
Based on NPD CREST data
139 mio 46 mio62 mio62 mio58 mio82 mio
310 mio
Source: CREST Russia Pilot Database. Fielded during 2 weeks in Oct. 2010
Growing Markets, Small and Fragmented
Proprietary and Confidential
33
Compared to GB and Germany, Russia has a high QSR share, whereas Workplace/Education is clearly less important.
Visit Share of Segments in Total AFH (in %)
Source: CREST Russia Pilot Database. Fielded during 2 weeks in Oct. 2010
Growing Markets, Small and Fragmented
Proprietary and Confidential
34
SEGMENT SHARE OF VISITS in QSR (in %)
Fast Food and Coffee shop segments have a higher share compared to GB and Germany.
Source: CREST Russia Pilot Database. Fielded during 2 weeks in Oct. 2010
Growing Markets, Small and Fragmented
Proprietary and Confidential35
Wuhan
Beijing
Shenyang
ShanghaiChengdu
Guangzhou
Jinan
Changsha
Proprietary and Confidential
China is not growing slowly
Traffic % Change vs. Year Ago
16.6
12.7
16.2 16.7
11.4
15.2
18.7
JFM
'10
AM
J '1
0
JAS
'10
ON
D '1
0
JFM
'11
AM
J '1
1
JAS
'11
China US
Total Restaurants
Source: The NPD Group / CREST ®
Growing Markets, Small and Fragmented
Proprietary and Confidential
Chinese urban consumers are very frequent users of foodservice.
Source: The NPD Group/ CREST Japan Population based on Tokyo/Osaka areas onlyYear ending June 2011 except Canada (Year Ending May 2011)
Annual Visits Per Person To Commercial Restaurants
196 195209
146
10892
142
178
356
226
USA Canada Australia Great Britain Germany France Spain Italy Japan China
Growing Markets, Small and Fragmented
Proprietary and Confidential
The majority of Chinese restaurants are independents
Share of Visits
Source: The NPD Group/ CREST Japan Population based on Tokyo/Osaka areas onlyYear ending June 2011 except Canada (Year Ending May 2011)
*CREST Russia Pilot Database. Fielded during 2 weeks in Oct. 2010
Growing Markets, Small and Fragmented
Proprietary and Confidential
Chinese consumers have barely started to use foodservice for main meals.
Share of Visits By Daypart
Source: The NPD Group/ CREST Japan Population based on Tokyo/Osaka areas onlyYear ending June 2011 except Canada (Year Ending May 2011)
Growing Markets, Small and Fragmented
Proprietary and Confidential
Chinese consumers spend very little per visit to restaurants.
Source: The NPD Group/ CREST Japan Population based on Tokyo/Osaka areas onlyYear ending June 2011 except Canada (Year Ending May 2011)
Average Eater Check (Euros)
*CREST Russia Pilot Database. Fielded during 2 weeks in Oct. 2010
Growing Markets, Small and Fragmented
Proprietary and Confidential
41
Proprietary and Confidential
Global Foodservice Opportunities
Big Markets, Low Growth
Growing Markets, Small and Fragmented
Lack of “Global” tastes
Promise & Challenge
Proprietary and Confidential
There are global brands all around the world; however, domestic chains dominate the list of top chains
USA Canada Australia GreatBritain Germany France Spain Italy Japan China
McDonald's Tim Hortons McDonald's McDonalds McDonalds/McCafé
McDonalds/McCafé McDonalds McDonald’s 7-Eleven KFC
Starbucks McDonald's Hungry Jack's Tesco Burger King Quick Burger King GranCafé McDonald’s Ba Be Mantou
Subway Subway KFC Greggs Nordsee Carrefour Carrefour Autogrill Lawsons McDonald's
Burger King A & W Red Rooster Sainsbury's Aral Auchan Alcampo Antica Locanda Family Mart Xin Ya Da Bao
Wendy's Wendy's Nandos KFC Vapiano Flunch Telepizza Apollo Jusco Jin De Li Min
Taco Bell Starbucks Oporto Costa Coffee IKEA Brioche Dorée Mercadona Fratelli La Bufala Yoshinoya Pizza Hut
Dunkin' Donuts Dairy Queen Gloria Jean's Asda Subway Casino Cafeteria Ben & Jerry's Auchan Seiyu Min Sheng Tian
Shi Guan
Sonic KFC Coffee Club Wetherspoon Apetito Buffalo Grill Gambrinus Agip Daiei 85 Degrees C
Dairy Queen Burger King Michel's Patisserie
Marks & Spencer Edeka Intermarché La Jijonenca Rosso
Pomodoro Matsuya Qing FengBao Zi Pu
KFC Swiss Chalet Chicken & Ribs Subway Morrisons Kamps Autogrill Mediterranea de
catering Acafé Ito-Yoka-Do JingkelongSupermarket
Top 10 Commercial Foodservice Outlets
Source: The NPD Group/ CREST Japan Population based on Tokyo/Osaka areas onlyYear ending June 2011 except Canada (Year Ending May 2011)
Lack of “Global” tastes
Proprietary and Confidential
The global chains are present around the world…
USA Canada Australia GreatBritain Germany France Spain Italy Japan China
McDonald's Tim Hortons McDonald's McDonalds McDonalds McDonalds McDonalds McDonald’s 7-Eleven KFC
Starbucks McDonald's Hungry Jack's Tesco Burger King Quick Burger King GranCafé McDonald’s Ba Be Mantou
Subway Subway KFC Greggs Nordsee Carrefour Carrefour Autogrill Lawsons McDonald's
Burger King A & W Red Rooster Sainsburys Aral Auchan Alcampo AnticaLocanda Family Mart Xin Ya Da Bao
Wendy's Wendy's Nandos KFC Vapiano Flunch Telepizza Apollo Jusco Jin De Li Min
Taco Bell Starbucks Oporto Costa Coffee IKEA Brioche Dorée Mercadona Fratelli La Bufala Yoshinoya Pizza Hut
Dunkin' Donuts Dairy Queen Gloria Jean's Asda Subway CasinoCafeteria Ben & Jerry's Auchan Seiyu Min Sheng
Tian Shi Guan
Sonic KFC Coffee Club Wetherspoon Apetito Buffalo Grill Gambrinus Agip Daiei 85 Degrees C
Dairy Queen Burger King Michel's Patisserie
Marks & Spencer Edeka Intermarché La Jijonenca Rosso
Pomodoro Matsuya Qing FengBao Zi Pu
KFC Swiss Chalet Chicken & Ribs Subway Morrisons Kamps Autogrill Mediterranea
de catering Acafé Ito-Yoka-Do JingkelongSupermarket
Top 10 Commercial Foodservice Outlets
Source: The NPD Group/ CREST Japan Population based on Tokyo/Osaka areas onlyYear ending June 2011 except Canada (Year Ending May 2011)
Lack of “Global” tastes
Proprietary and Confidential
Consumer taste’s vary around the world and are influenced by local culture
USA Canada Australia GreatBritain
Germany France Spain Italy Japan China
Burgers Fries Fries Fries Fries Dessert/Ice Cream Tapas Brioches Rice Buns
Fries Chicken Burgers Sandwich Burgers Baked Goods Desserts Pasta Sweet Bread Donut
Other Staple Food
Pizza Salads Sandwiches Burgers Pork Salads Meat Entrees Pizza, whole Rice Balls VegetableDishes
Mexican Burgers Fish/Seafood Salad Poultry Sandwich Salads Beef VegetableSalad Noodles
ChickenSandwiches Side Salads Grilled/Roast
Chicken Chinese Sandwichw/Cheese Burgers Fish/Shellfish Pizza, slice Miso Soup Fish Dishes
5 Favorite Foods
Source: The NPD Group/ CREST Japan Population based on Tokyo/Osaka areas onlyYear ending June 2011 except Canada (Year Ending May 2011)
Lack of “Global” tastes
Proprietary and Confidential
Consumer taste’s vary around the world and are influenced by local culture
USA Canada Australia GreatBritain
Germany France Spain Italy Japan China
Burgers Fries Fries Fries Fries Dessert/Ice Cream Tapas Brioches Rice Buns
Fries Chicken Burgers Sandwich Burgers Baked Goods Desserts Pasta Sweet Bread Donut
Other Staple Food
Pizza Salads Sandwiches Burgers Pork Salads Meat Entrees Pizza, whole Rice Balls VegetableDishes
Mexican Burgers Fish/Seafood Salad Poultry Sandwich Salads Beef VegetableSalad Noodles
ChickenSandwiches Side Salads Grilled/Roast
Chicken Chinese Sandwichw/Cheese Burgers Fish/Shellfish Pizza, slice Miso Soup Fish Dishes
5 Favorite Foods
Source: The NPD Group/ CREST Japan Population based on Tokyo/Osaka areas onlyYear ending June 2011 except Canada (Year Ending May 2011)
10 7
Lack of “Global” tastes
Proprietary and Confidential
Consumer taste’s vary around the world and are influenced by local culture
USA Canada Australia GreatBritain
Germany France Spain Italy Japan China
Burgers Fries Fries Fries Fries Dessert/Ice Cream Tapas Brioches Rice Buns
Fries Chicken Burgers Sandwich Burgers Baked Goods Desserts Pasta Sweet Bread Donut
Other Staple Food
Pizza Salads Sandwiches Burgers Pork Salads Meat Entrees Pizza, whole Rice Balls VegetableDishes
Mexican Burgers Fish/Seafood Salad Poultry Sandwich Salads Beef VegetableSalad Noodles
ChickenSandwiches Side Salads Grilled/Roast
Chicken Chinese Sandwichw/Cheese Burgers Fish/Shellfish Pizza, slice Miso Soup Fish Dishes
People, Chains & Manufacturers
5 Favorite Foods
Source: The NPD Group/ CREST Japan Population based on Tokyo/Osaka areas onlyYear ending June 2011 except Canada (Year Ending May 2011)
10 7109 9
Lack of “Global” tastes
Proprietary and Confidential
Consumer taste’s vary around the world and are influenced by local culture
USA Canada Australia GreatBritain
Germany France Spain Italy Japan China
Burgers Fries Fries Fries Fries Dessert/Ice Cream Tapas Brioches Rice Buns
Fries Chicken Burgers Sandwich Burgers Baked Goods Desserts Pasta Sweet Bread Donut
Other Staple Food
Pizza Salads Sandwiches Burgers Pork Salads Meat Entrees Pizza, whole Rice Balls VegetableDishes
Mexican Burgers Fish/Seafood Salad Poultry Sandwich Salads Beef VegetableSalad Noodles
ChickenSandwiches Side Salads Grilled/Roast
Chicken Chinese Sandwichw/Cheese Burgers Fish/Shellfish Pizza, slice Miso Soup Fish Dishes
5 Favorite Foods
Source: The NPD Group/ CREST Japan Population based on Tokyo/Osaka areas onlyYear ending June 2011 except Canada (Year Ending May 2011)
Indian11
Lack of “Global” tastes
Proprietary and Confidential
49
Fast breakfasts are eerily similar!
Proprietary and Confidential
Coffee is an important item on restaurant menus in Italy, Spain and Canada but not in Japan and China
Coffee Incidence Trended
Source: The NPD Group/ CREST Japan Population based on Tokyo/Osaka areas onlyYear ending June 2011 except Canada (Year Ending May 2011)
Lack of “Global” tastes
Proprietary and Confidential
51
And in Europe today….
Take-Away Coffee Share % in Commercial Restaurants
5
4 21
1
35
27
8
27
12
Great Britain Germany Spain France Italy2000 2010
Lack of “Global” tastes
Proprietary and Confidential
Global Foodservice Opportunities
Big Markets, Low Growth
Growing Markets, Small and Fragmented
Lack of “Global” tastes
Promise & Challenge
Proprietary and Confidential
China grew during the global recession, while most other countries suffered
Gross Domestic Product, Volume, Market Prices, Annualized Rate(Annual Projections for OECD Countries)
Source: OECD Forecasts (www.oecd.org)
Key Opportunity To Drive GrowthPromise & Challenge
Proprietary and Confidential
Looking a the long term, consumers increase their use and cut back in times of economic stress.
Source: The NPD Group/ 26th Annual Eating Patterns of America
Annual Commercial Foodservice Meals Per Person In the USA
Promise & Challenge
Proprietary and Confidential
Young adults are important consumers to restaurants around the world
Source: The NPD Group/ CREST
Annual Visits Per Person By AgeTo Commercial Restaurants
Source: The NPD Group/ CREST Japan Population based on Tokyo/Osaka areas onlyYear ending June 2011 except Canada (Year Ending May 2011)
Promise & Challenge
Proprietary and Confidential
Mature adults keep increasing their use of restaurants.
Promise & Challenge
Source: The NPD Group/CREST
163172 176 177 175
182 179 177 179 179 179 183 181 184 187194
207 209 211200
194 192 192 195 194 199206 203 204
1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Annual Eatings Per Capita—50+ Year Olds In The USA
Proprietary and Confidential
So,
The Promise:– Around the world, people have their own
tastes and motivations but they all find more and more reasons for purchasing prepared meals in snacks….OVER TIME
The Challenge:– Finding solutions, situations, foods and drinks
that are relevant to each market and consumer group
Promise & Challenge
Proprietary and Confidential
Final thoughts….
Continued, growing economic health…which you can do nothing aboutDaypart options with shorter eating timeLess expensive items, either main meals or snacksA focus on what the locals like– But, just because they don’t do it now doesn’t mean they won’t do it
tomorrow
Innovation for heavy using young people who will drive the long term market
More frequent eating out requires…
Proprietary and Confidential
Final thoughts….
We all find ourselves away from home at meal timeWe all need to have some food at the beginning of the dayWe all need a pick-me-up from time to timeWe all need to “restore” ourselves from time to timeWe all (some of us, anyway) need something to fill our stomachs after a night out
And, those common needs..
Proprietary and Confidential
Thank You
Bob O’BrienTelephone: +1-847-692-1757
Mobile: +1-708-829-4353
Fax: +1-847-692-2812
Email: bob.obrien@npd.com
Proprietary and Confidential
Additional Thoughts…
The tastes of young adults will help drive innovation and determine long term trends.In Europe, the opportunity is to get people to choose restaurants for more mealsOutside of Europe, the key is to add items to current meals or expand outside of mealsFor manufacturers, global chains may prove to be a useful entry into a new country but the domestic chains, and their needs, will determine the breadth of success.
Lack of “Global” tastes
Proprietary and Confidential
Young adults are important consumers to restaurants around the world
Source: The NPD Group/ CREST
Annual Visits Per Person By AgeTo Commercial Restaurants
Source: The NPD Group/ CREST Japan Population based on Tokyo/Osaka areas onlyYear ending June 2011 except Canada (Year Ending May 2011)
Key Opportunity To Drive GrowthBig Markets, Low Growth
Proprietary and Confidential
Thoughts about markets, foods and occasions
People buy at different rates but they tend to distribute their meals in roughly the same way (except for Italy and China)Meals are generally cheaper in higher frequency countries– Convenience vs. Event
New situation can drive behaviorForeign foods, outside of burgers and fries are rarely favoritesBut common foods can translate across cultures