Post on 08-Apr-2018
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How Is A Flood Defined?
Websters Dictionary
1 a : A rising and overflowing of a body of water especially onto normally dry land; also : a condition ofoverflowing b capitalized: a flood described in the Bible as covering the earth in the timeof Noah2 : The flowing in of the tide3 : An overwhelming quantity or volume; also : a state of abundant flow or volume
A flood which occurs within six hours or less of the causative event. In some partsof the Nation, the actual time threshold for an event to be considered a flash flood may beless than six hours.
Any high flow, overflow, or inundation by water which causes or threatens damage.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MANUAL 10-950, SEPTEMBER 26, 2002
Operations and Services Hydrologic Services Program, NWSPD 10-9
How Is A Flash Flood Defined?
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MANUAL 10-950, SEPTEMBER 26, 2002Operations and Services Hydrologic Services Program, NWSPD 10-9
A local flood of great volume and short duration generally resulting from heavy rainfall in theimmediate vicinity
Websters Dictionary
Etymology: Middle English, from Old English flOd; akin to Old High German fluotflood, Old English flOwan to flow
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How Can I Decide if it is a Flood or a Flash Flood?
Duration of Time from Precipitation Event(s) to onset of flooding
Common Flash Flood Producers
Heavy Localized Rainfall
Dam or Levee Failure
Sudden Release of Water held by an Ice Jam orDebris Flow
Common Flood Producers
Regional Excessive Rainfall
Mainstem Seasonal River System Flooding
Severe Local Storms Large-Scale Circulation Patterns
Increasing Spatial CoverageIndividual Thunderstorm Repeated Occurrences of Convective Complexes
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Floods- An International Perspective
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Number of Great Natural Catastrophes 1950-2006
UN Definition: The region affected requires supraregional or international assistance; This is the
case for events when there are thousands of fatalities, when hundreds of thousands of people are
left homeless, or when overall losses and/or insured losses are of exceptional proportions
http://www.munichre.com/publications/302-05217_en.pdf?rdm=28513
Trend Line
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EventEvent CountryCountry MonthMonth FatalitiesFatalities Cost (US$ million)Cost (US$ million)
Hurricane KatrinaHurricane Katrina U.S.U.S. Aug., 2005Aug., 2005 1,322 (1,8331,322 (1,833-- NHC Report)NHC Report) 125,000125,000
EarthquakeEarthquake Japan: KobeJapan: Kobe Jan., 1995Jan., 1995 6,4306,430 100,000100,000
EarthquakeEarthquake U.S.: NorthridgeU.S.: Northridge Jan., 1994Jan., 1994 6161 44,00044,000FloodFlood ChinaChina MayMay--Sept., 1998Sept., 1998 4,1594,159 30,70030,700
EarthquakeEarthquake Japan: NiigataJapan: Niigata Oct., 2004Oct., 2004 4646 28,00028,000
Hurricane AndrewHurricane Andrew U.S.U.S. Aug., 1992Aug., 1992 6262 26,50026,500
FloodFlood ChinaChina Jun.Jun.--Aug, 1996Aug, 1996 3,0483,048 24,00024,000
Hurricane IvanHurricane Ivan U.S.U.S. Sept., 2004Sept., 2004 125125 23,00023,000
FloodFlood U.S. Mississippi RiverU.S. Mississippi River JunJun--Aug, 1993Aug, 1993 4848 21,00021,000Hurricane WilmaHurricane Wilma Mexico, U.S. CaribbeanMexico, U.S. Caribbean Oct. 2005Oct. 2005 4242 18,00018,000
Top Ten Natural Disasters 1980-2006 (Economic Losses) 6 of the 10 Events Affected U.S.
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EventEvent CountryCountry MonthMonth FatalitiesFatalities Cost (USCost (US
$ million)$ million)
FloodFlood IndiaIndia Aug.Aug. 1,1501,150 5,0005,000
HurricaneHurricane
KatrinaKatrina
U.S.U.S. Aug.Aug. 1,3221,322 125,000125,000
HurricaneHurricane
RitaRita
U.S.U.S. Sept.Sept. 1010 16,00016,000
HurricaneHurricane
StanStan
MiddleMiddle
AmericaAmerica
Oct.Oct. 840840 3,0003,000
EarthquakeEarthquake Pakistan,Pakistan,
IndiaIndia
OctOct 88,00088,000 5,2005,200
HurricaneHurricane
WilmaWilma
Mexico,Mexico,
U.S.U.S.
CaribbeanCaribbean
Oct.Oct. 4242 18,00018,000
Worldwide Flood Events 2005 :
100-110 Events (Flood and Flash Flood)
4,240 Fatalities
Over 16 Billion in Losses
Reference: Munich Re, Topics Geo 2005
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CountryCountry YearYear FatalitiesFatalities Cost (US$ million)Cost (US$ million)
ChinaChina MayMay--Sept., 1998Sept., 1998 4,1594,159 30,70030,700
ChinaChina Jun.Jun.--Aug, 1996Aug, 1996 3,0483,048 24,00024,000
U.S. Mississippi RiverU.S. Mississippi River JunJun--Aug, 1993Aug, 1993 4848 21,00021,000EuropeEurope Aug., 2002Aug., 2002 3939 16,50016,500
North KoreaNorth Korea Jul.Jul.--Aug, 1995Aug, 1995 6868 15,00015,000
ChinaChina MayMay--Sept., 1991Sept., 1991 2,6282,628 13,60013,600
ChinaChina Jun.Jun.--Sept., 1993Sept., 1993 3,3003,300 11,00011,000
ItalyItaly Nov., 1994Nov., 1994 6868 9,3009,300
Bangladesh, India, NepalBangladesh, India, Nepal Jul.Jul.--Aug., 1993Aug., 1993 2,9532,953 8,5008,500
EuropeEurope Oct., 2000Oct., 2000 3838 8,5008,500
Top Ten Flood Disasters 1980-2006 (Economic Losses)
June August Monsoon Floods in Bangladesh, India, and Nepal
Bangladesh 2/3 of the country was under water for most of the time
2200 people drowned and 5 billion in economic loss
June-September China River Floods
Hundreds of thousands of buildings destroyed
1,000 people drowned and economic losses of 8 billion dollars
Notable 2004 Flooding Events which are not mentioned in economic loss table
May- Haiti and Dominican Republic
2000 people died due to flood waters and mudslides
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United States
Flood Fatalities and Economic Impacts
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What Storm-Related Hazard isresponsible for the highest numberof fatalities in the United States?
a. Lightning
b. Tornadoes
c. Heavy Rainfall/ Flooding
d. High Winds
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Storm Related Fatalities 1975-
004
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Year
NumberofFatalities
Flood Lightning Tornado Hurricane
2004 FatalitySummary- 82 Flood , 34 Tornado, 34 Hurricane, 31 Lightning, 27 Cold, 28 Winter, 6 Heat
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Percent of Total Storm Related Hazard Fatalities 1975-2004
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 0 1 2 3 4
Year
Pe
rcentofTot
Flood Lightning Tornado Hurricane
30 Year Average (1975-2004) Flood = 107, Lightning = 64, Tornado = 54, Hurricane = 15
10 Year Average (1995-2004) Flood = 88, Lightning = 49, Tornado = 57, Hurricane = 21
Flood FatalityInformation fromNWS Hydrologic Information Center Other Hazard FatalityInformation fromNWSSummary ofNatural HazardStatistics
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St rm D t - H z r
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Y
r
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P k , Jr., R.A., .W. D w , J.Z. B r r M r , 2002: Flood Damage in the United States, 1926-2000: AReanalysis ofNational Weather Service Estimates. Boulder, CO: UCAR.
With Caveats on Flood Data Economic Tabulations as outlined in
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Year Loss Dollars Paid Number of Claims
2005 $13,101,490,578 149,711
2004 $2,140,197,672 54,745
1995 $1,295,575,169 62,441
2001 $1,276,846,344 43,539
1998 $886,026,013 57,340
1996 $828,040,301 52,675
2003 $771,794,480 36,478
1999 $754,837,772 47,240
1992 $710,247,980 44,651
1989 $661,668,435 36,247
NFIP Loss Dollars Paid
$
$2,000,000,000.00
$4,000,000,000.00
$6,000,000,000.00
$8,000,000,000.00
$10,000,000,000.00
$12,000,000,000.00
$14,000,000,000.00
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
N ! " P Loss Dollars Paid
NFIP Number of Claims Paid
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
N#
$ P Loss Dollars Paid
National lood nsurance Program EMA Web Page
Year Loss Dollars Paid Per Capita Claim
2005 $13,101,490,578 $ 87,512
2004 $2,140,197,672 $ 39,094
2001 $1,276,846,344 $ 29,326
2003 $771,794,480 $ 21,1581995 $1,295,575,169 $ 20,749
1994 $ 411,079,605 $ 19,046
1993 $ 659,092,451 $ 18,286
1989 $661,668,435 $ 18,254
2002 $ 433,198,849 $ 17,149
1997 $ 519,511,873 $ 17,124
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Flood types: production methods on
multiple time and space scalesFlash Floods
Weather Produced:
Individual Storm-Quick-Burst
Rainfall
Weather/Human Factors:
Ice Jam/Debris FlowsHuman Factor:
Dam Failures
Landfalling Systems with Oceanic/Tropical Origins
Weather Produced:
Organized Storm Complex
Tropical Systems/NorEasters
Regional Floods
Multiple Storm Complexes reoccurring for weeks
Prolonged Regional River System Flooding
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Flash Flood Significant Events
June 14, 1990 Shadyside, Ohio (Evening)
Most Deadly and Destructive Flash Flood since 1980
15-20 Foot Wall of Water
26 People Killed- 2 Bodies Recovered 30 Miles Downstream At he Hannibal
Locks and Dam on the Ohio River
80 Homes Destroyed, 250 Damaged with 6-8 Million Dollars in Damage
July 31, 1976 Big Thompson Canyon Flood, Colorado (Evening)
8 Inches of Rainfall in One Hour
139 People with 30 Million Dollars ofDamage
3-5 Inches Of Rain In Less Than 2 Hours Fell On Saturated Soils
Impacts Multiplier: Time of Day
Peoples Access to Info
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Ice Jams (From US Corps ofEngineers Data and Web Pages)
Israel River, Lancaster, NHIce Jam DatabaseUS Army, ERDC, CRREL-IceEngineering Group72 Lyme RoadHanover, NH 03755
Phone: 603-646-4187Fax: 603-646-4477E-mail: kwhite@crrel.usace.army.mil
The rates of water level rise can vary from feet per minute to feet per hour during ice jam flooding. In some instances,communities have many hours of lead time between the time an ice jam forms and the start of flooding. In other cases,the lead time is a little as one hour.
For example, in March 1992, an ice jam developed at 7:00 a.m. in Montpelier, VT. By 8:00 a.m. the downtown area wasflooded (Figure 2-3).During the next 11 hours, the business district was covered with an average of 1.2 to 1.5 m (4 to 5 ft)of water. The event occurred so quickly that there was not sufficient time to warn residents so they could protect theirgoods.Even after water levels dropped, damage related to the flooding continued as cold temperatures caused freezeupof wet objects.Damages of less than one day were estimated at $5 million (FEMA 1992b).
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Dam Breaks
June 1, 188 Johnstown, Pennsylvania
20 Million Tons of Water Released
Official City Records list 2,207 dead but witnesses claim more
March 12, 1928 St Francisquito Canyon, California
William Mulholland's great St. Francis Dam broke at three minutes before midnight on March 12, 1928,sending a 180-foot-high wall of water crashing down San Francisquito Canyon and claiming approximately470 lives by the time the floodwaters reached the Pacific Ocean at Ventura.
The piano keyboard in the foreground of this photograph is an eerie reminder of the families that were
caught unawares in the middle of that fateful night. The flood was the second-worst disaster in California
www.scvhistory.com
Its waters swept through the Santa Clara Valley toward the PacificOcean, about 54 miles away. 65 miles of valley was devastatedbefore the water finally made its way into the ocean betweenOxnard and Ventura.
At its peak the wall of water was said to be 78 feet high; by the
time it hit Santa Paula, 42 miles south of the dam, the water wasestimated to be 25 feet deep. Almost everything in its path wasdestroyed: livestock, structures, railways, bridges, livestock, andorchards.
By the ti e it was over, parts of Ventura County lay under 70feet of ud and debris. Over 500 people were killed andda age esti ates topped $20 illion. ((www.USC.EDU)
history, second only to the San Francisco earthquake and fire of 1906
http://www.damsafety.org/
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Nove ber 1977 at 1:30 AM- Kelly Barnes Da (Rock Crib) Toccoa, Georgia Da Failure
40 People Died (Almost 50 percent Children) In 1899 Original dam constructed of interlocking sections of timber
or concrete, forming cells which are filled with earth or broken rock.
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Rappaport,E. Loss of Life In The United States Associated With Recent Atlantic Tropical Cyclones. Bulletin of the American MeteorologicalSociety. Vol 81, No. 9, September 2000.
In a study from 1970 to 1999, freshwater flooding accounted for more than half (59%) of
U.S. tropical cyclone deaths. These floods are why 63% of U.S. tropical cyclone deaths
during that period occurred in inland counties.
At least 23% of U.S. tropical cyclone deaths occur to people who drown in, or attempting to
abandon, their cars.
78% of children killed by tropical cyclones drowned in freshwater floods.
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0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
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19:30:00
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Time(EST)
Rain Accumulation (Inch
LOUN7(USGS2081747)
TOWN7(USGS2083640)
RMBN7(USGS20825088
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0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
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9/2/2003
9/3/2003
9/4/2003
9/5/2003
9/6/2003
9/7/2003
9/8/2003
9/9/2003
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9/2/2003
9/3/2003
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9/5/2003
9/6/2003
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9/23/2003
9/25/2003
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Inland Flooding Evacuate and Turn Around Dont Drown
Hurricane Floyd (1999)Intense rains and record flooding to the Eastern U.S. Ofthe 56 people who perished, 50 drowned due to inlandflooding.
Tropical Storm Alberto (1994)Drifted over the Southeast United States and producedtorrential rainfall. More than 21 inches of rain fell atAmericus Georgia. Thirty-three people drowned.
Damages exceeded $750 million.
Tropical Storm Claudette (1979)Produced 45 inches of rain to an area near Alvin, Texas,contributing to more than $600 million in damages.
Hurricane Agnes (1972)Produced floods in the Northeast United States which
contributed to 122 deaths and $6.4 billion in damages.
Hurricane Diane (1955)Brought inland flooding to Pennsylvania, New York, andNew England contributing to nearly 200 deaths and $4.2billion in damages.
Hurricane Floyd NASA
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YearYear MonthMonth EventEvent CauseCause NOAA StormNOAA StormData Total LossData Total Loss
NFIP # PaidNFIP # PaidLossesLosses
NFIP AmountNFIP AmountPaidPaid
NFIP AvgNFIP AvgPaid LossPaid Loss
FatalitiesFatalities(Storm Data)(Storm Data)
20042004 SeptSept HurricaneHurricaneIvanIvan
LandfallingTropicalLandfallingTropicalSystemSystem
14 Billion14 Billion 28,05328,053 1,407,641,7521,407,641,752 50,17850,178 5757
20042004 SeptSept HurricaneHurricaneFrancesFrances
LandfallingTropicalLandfallingTropicalSystemSystem
9 Billion9 Billion 6,5526,552 188,747,694188,747,694 28,80828,808 4848
20042004 AugAug HurricaneHurricaneCharleyCharley
LandfallingTropicalLandfallingTropicalSystemSystem
15 Billion (Est)15 Billion (Est) 3,0823,082 58,843,65258,843,652 19,09319,093 3434
20032003 SeptSept HurricaneHurricaneIsabelIsabel
LandfallingTropicalLandfallingTropicalSystemSystem
5 Billion5 Billion 19,56919,569 460,975,889460,975,889 23,55623,556 5555
20012001 JunJun TropicalTropicalStorm AllisonStorm Allison
LandfallingTropicalLandfallingTropicalSystemSystem
5.1 Billion5.1 Billion 30,29130,291 1,095,419,2591,095,419,259 36,16336,163 4343
19991999 SeptSept HurricaneHurricaneFloydFloyd
LandfallingTropicalLandfallingTropicalSystemSystem
6.5 Billion6.5 Billion 18,61218,612 439,100,271439,100,271 23,59223,592 7777
19981998 SeptSept HurricaneHurricaneGeorgesGeorges
LandfallingTropicalLandfallingTropicalSystemSystem
6.5 Billion6.5 Billion 8,8328,832 149,384,694149,384,694 16,91416,914 1616
19981998 Aug Aug HurricaneHurricaneBonnieBonnie
LandfallingTropicalLandfallingTropicalSystemSystem
1.1 Billion1.1 Billion 2,4922,492 22,125,05522,125,055 8,8788,878 33
2005 Event2005 Event CountryCountry MonthMonth FatalitiesFatalities Cost (US $ million)Cost (US $ million)
FloodFlood IndiaIndia Aug.Aug. 1,1501,150 5,0005,000
Hurricane KatrinaHurricane Katrina U.S.U.S. Aug.Aug. 1,3221,322 125,000125,000
Hurricane RitaHurricane Rita U.S.U.S. Sept.Sept. 1010 16,00016,000
Hurricane StanHurricane Stan Middle AmericaMiddle America Oct.Oct. 840840 3,0003,000
Hurricane WilmaHurricane Wilma Mexico, U.S.Mexico, U.S.CaribbeanCaribbean
Oct.Oct. 4242 18,00018,000
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October-Nove ber 1998 Heavy Rains (Texas)
Number of Paid FEMA Losses: 4,678 Total FEMA Claims Paid: 76,257,393 (16,301 per claim)
Severe Flooding from 2 Heavy Rain Events
Approxi ately 1.0 (1.1 adj 2002) Billion in da age
31 Deaths (NCDC Storm Data) - CDC Web Page 29 Deaths with 22 from vehicles driven into high water
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http://floodsafety.com/media/pdfs/texas/October98.pdf
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Northern Plains Flooding April/May 1997
(Snowmelt and Icepack Buildup)
NCDC Storm Data:
Approximately 3.7 (4.1 adjusted to 2002) billion in damage/costs
11 deaths
FEMA NFIP Number of Paid Losses =7,272
FEMA NFIP Total Losses Paid
158,401,726 Dollars ($21,782 per claim)
The important factors that set the stage for potential significantflooding of the Red River and its tributaries during April 1997
Greatly enhanced snowfall during the winter
Substantial buildup of river ice throughout the northern halfof the Red River.
A highly unfavorable March-April 1997 thaw in the RedRiver Basin
These conditions resulted from a series of major
cold-air outbreaks and winter storms from
September1996 to April 1997. During this period
more than 200% of normal snowfall was
observed over most of North Dakota, western
Minnesota and northeastern South Dakota, with125%-200%of normal snow covering the
remainder of the upper Midwest, the northern
Plains, Montana and most of Wyoming
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Where Can You Receive River Forecasts and Flood
Information?
http://www.weather.gov/ahps/
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Forecast Dissemination and Data Delivery Organizational Structure
Office of Hydrologic Development
Office of Science and Technology
Office of Operational Systems
Office of Climate, Weather, Water, andWeather Services (OCCWS) Divisions
National Weather ServiceHeadquarters
Develops and aintains Hydrologic/Hydro eteorologic odels, syste sand procedures to eet require ents
set by OCCWS HSD
Maintains the Hydro eteorologicalAuto ated Data Syste (HADS)
The Meteorological Develop ent Lab(MDL) within OST develops WFOapplications used to produce selected
watch/warning/advisory products
MDL supports MOS software whichprovides te perature forecast
guidance used as input to RFChydrologic odels
NCEP Facilities
Hydro eteorological Prediction Center(HPC)
Produces gridded and probabilistic QPF with other
hydromet products on a national basis.
Environ ental Monitoring Center(EMC)
Develops, maintains, and improves atmospheric
models used in short/medium term AHPS products
Cli ate Prediction Center(CPC)
Products define how precipitation deviates fromclimatic norms for the long-term forecast period
Stor Prediction Center(SPC)
Event-based, short-term precipitation rate forecasts
Tropical Prediction Center(TPC)
Produces forecasts for tropical weather systems
NWS Regional Headquarters
Regional Director is f irst-line supervisor of regionalhydrologic division chief, RFC Hydrologists In Charge(HIC), and WFO Meteorologists In Charge (MIC).Assigns hydrology program responsibilities of the region
Responsible for full spectrum of hydrologic program:data delivery, product generation, service assessment,and product improvement
(13)NWS River ForecastCenters
(122)NWS WeatherForecast Offices (WFO)
National Operational
Hydrologic Re oteSensing Center
Produces ainste river floodforecasts and warnings
Provides precipitation QA/QC
Hydrologic Model Develop ent
and Maintenance
Produces flash flood andselected river flood forecastsand warnings
Provides precipitation forecasts
Service Hydrologist is publicand partner interface for
hydrologic observation network
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For the U.S., the 13 RiverForecast Centers (RFC) prepare
mainstem river forecast andwarning products
The WFOs
a) Produce flash flood watches andwarnings
b) Disseminate the RFC river
products for their respectiveHydrologic Service Area
c) Coordinate the hydrologicobserving network with localpartners and agencies (USGS,Corps ofEngineers,etc.)
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Product Identifier Source Description
Flood Potential
Outlook
___ESF___
(example)WFO
This product is issued when conditions indicate that significantly heavyprecipitation will cause or aggravate flooding. It is issued with a 36-houror greater lead time. It includes:
Area affected Time frames Discussion of hydrologic and meteorological factors and conditions Information on projected watches and warnings
Excessive RainOutlook
NMCGPH94E NCEP
This product is issued when conditions indicate that significantly heavyprecipitation will cause or aggravate flooding. It is issued with a 36-houror greater lead time. It includes:
Area affected Time frames Discussion of hydrologic and meteorological factors and conditions Information on projected watches and warning
Extended Strea flow, Flood and Precipitation Outlooks (Situational Awareness)
www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml
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FGUS74 KSHV 091806ESFSHVARC027-057-061-073-081-091-099-133-139-LAC013-015-017-021-027-031-043-049-059-061-069-073-081-085-111-119-127-OKC089-TXC005-037-063-067-073-159-183-203-315-343-347-365-387-401-403-405-419-423-449-459-499-102359-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 1206 PM CST FRI MAR 9 2007
...ANNUAL SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...
...BELOW AVERAGE FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THIS SPRING...
IN THE WAKE OF THE WET DECEMBER OF 2006 AND JANUARY OF 2007 THAT RESULTED INWIDESPREAD...ALBEIT MINOR FLOODING...HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS DRIED MARKEDLY DURINGFEBRUARY AND THROUGH THE FIRST THIRD OF THIS MARCH. DROUGHT CONDITIONSENDED
DURING JANUARY AS THE BOUNTIFUL RAINS REFILLED LAKES AND RESERVOIRS AND BROUGHTRIVERS AND BAYOUS TO SEASONABLE STAGES AND DISCHARGES.
ALL RESERVOIRS REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THEIR RESPECTIVECONSERVATION POOLSTAGES ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...AND NORTHERNLOUISIANA. AREA RIVERS AND BAYOUS RECEDED MARKEDLY DURING A DRIER THAN USUALFEBRUARY WITH VIRTUALLY NO RAINFALL THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF THIS MARCH.STREAMFLOWS AND STAGES ACROSS THE SHREVEPORT HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA (HSA) RECEDEDTO NEAR NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL BY THEEND OF FEBRUARY AND CONTINUED TO SLOWLY
RECEDETHROUGH THIS FIRST THIRD OF MARCH.
SOIL MOISTURECONDITIONS CONTINUED TO DRY DURING FEBRUARY AND THIS MARCH WITHINCIPIENT DROUGHT (CLASS D0 ON THE INTERNET DROUGHT MONITOR) ONCE AGAIN KNOCKINGON OUR CLIMATEDOOR WITH THIS PAST WEEKS ISSUANCE. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALLFORECAST DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD RECHARGE ANTECEDENT SOILMOISTURE SOMEWHAT...BUT NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED. ANOTHER SYSTEM SHOULD SPREAD SOMELIGHT TO MODERATERAINFALL DURING THEEND OF NEXT WEEK. THE LONG RANGE OUTLOOKSUPPORTS EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL OR BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL...BUT THE GENERAL
PATTERN APPEARS UNFAVORABLE FOR SEVERAL DAYS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
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http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
Quantitative Precipitation
Forecast (QPF)- Day 1
For a 24 Hour Period
ending either 12 UTC or 00
UTC
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Product Identifier Source Description
Flood Watch
___FFA___
(example) WFO
Used to inform cooperating agencies & the public about the threat of flooding. It covers
precipitation, snow/ice melt, & dam break conditions. It Includes:
Area affected
Time frames
Conditions Extent of hazardous conditions possible
Potential severity
Call-to-action statement
Watches
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/92fwbgusa.gif
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WGUS66 KSEW 122350
FFASEW
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONALWEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA450 PM PDT MON MAR12 2007
WAC033-045-053-057-061-073-130800- /O.EXT.KSEW.FA.A.0003.000000T0000Z-070313T1300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
KING-MASON-PIERCE-SKAGIT-SNOHOMISH-WHATCOM-
450 PM PDT MON MAR12 2007
...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONSOFNORTHWEST WASHINGTON AND WEST CENTRALWASHINGTON...
INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...IN NORTHWEST WASHINGTON... SKAGIT AND
WHATCOM. IN WEST CENTRALWASHINGTON...KING... MASON...PIERCE...SNOHOMISH
* THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
* HEAVY RAIN THAT FELL SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING DROVE SEVERALRIVERS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. THE HEADWATERS OF RIVERS FLOWINGOFFTHE
CASCADES WILLRAPIDLY RECEDE TODAY...AND CRESTS WILLMOVE DOWNSTREAM.
AS THE CREST MOVES DOWNSTREAM...MINORFLOODING IS STILLPOSSIBLE IN THE
COUNTIES UNDER THIS FLOOD WATCH...ESPECIALLY WHERE RIVERS ARE CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO COME CLOSE TOFLOOD STAGE AND WHERE SMALLER STREAMS AND
RIVERS DRAIN INTO THE LARGER RIVERS UNDER A FLOOD WARNING.
AFLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT FLOODING IS POSSIBLE BUT NOT CERTAIN. BE READY
TO
ACT QUICKL
Y IF
THE NATIO
NAL
WEATHER SERVICE ISSUES AFLOO
D WARNING.
Area affected
Call-to-actionstatement
Time frames
Conditions
Extent of hazardous
conditions possible
Potential severity
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Product Identifier Source Description
Flood Statement___FLS___
(example)WFO
This product is issued to update and expand the information in a FloodWarning (FLW, see below).
The Flood Statement may be used in lieu of a warning if flooding isforecast, imminent, or existing and presents no threat to life orproperty. The statement is used also to terminate a FloodWarning.
River Statement ___RVS___ WFO
This product provides daily river stage forecasts and/or informationabout ice jams and ice movement that does not warrant a FloodWarning or a Flood Statement.
It is used also to communicate conditions such as low flows, chemicalspills, etc.
River IceStatement
___RVI___ WFOThis product can contain numeric and/or narrative information on river
ice conditions.
State ents
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Product Identifier Source Description
Flood Warning___FLW___
(example)WFO
This product normally specifies crest information and is issuedfor specific communities or areas along rivers whereflooding has been forecast, is imminent, or is in progress.
Advisories/Warnings
WGUS43KDVN 130130
FLWDVN
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONALWEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
830 PM CDT MON MAR12 2007
...THE NATIONALWEATHER SERVICE IN QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
RIVERS...ROCK RIVER...IN ILLINOIS...
AFFECTING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN ILLINOIS...HENRY...ROCK ISLAND... WHITESIDE
AN ICE JAM CAUSED WATERLEVELS ON THE ROCK RIVER UPSTREAM OF THE HIGHWAY 84 BRIDGE RISE
SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY. THIS ICE JAM HAS NOW BROKEN...BUT WATERLEVELS REMAIN HIGH AND WILLTAKE
SEVERALMORE HOURS TO RECEDE. THUS...A FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ROCK RIVER AT JOSLIN.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/QUADCITIES (ALLLOWER CASE).
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WGUS44 KEWX 121939
FLWEWX
TXC021-130554-
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING...CORRECTED
NATIONALWEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
240 PM CDT MON MAR12 2007
...THE NATIONALWEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A RIVERFLOOD WARNING FOR THE BIG SANDY CREEK EAST OF
EGLIN...
THE BIG SANDY CREEK EAST OF EGLIN...
AT NOON MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 17.0FEET.MODERATE FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND IS FORECAST.
FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0FEET.
FORECAST...RISE TOAROUND 18.0FEET THIS AFTERNOON.
AT 16.0FEET MODERATE LOWLAND FLOODING CAN CUT OFFAND DROWN LIVESTOCK IN THE FLOOD
PLAIN. LOWEST ROADS AND BRIDGES ARE FLOODED AND DANGEROUS.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ADDITIONALRAINFALLWILLCHANGE RIVERFORECAST LEVELS.
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Product Identifier Source Description
HydrometeorologicalDiscussion
___HMD___(example)
RFCs
This product summarizes the current hydrometeorologicalsituation, general trends of the RFC's hydrologic forecasts,and flood potential for the entire RFC area. The types ofconditions monitored include:
Areas where Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPFs)indicate significant potential for rainfall causing runoff
Rivers that are already above flood stage
Areas where soil moisture is above normal due to recentexcessive rainfall
Areas covered by a significant snowpack that could readilymelt in changing meteorological conditions such as a rain-on-snow event or a heat wave
Areas where frozen ground could generate dangerousrunoff with moderate rainfall
Areas where ice jam breakups could potentially producebackwater flooding or dam-break-like flood conditions
Discussions
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Fatality Trends and Multi-Agency Education Programs
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20052005 42/20**
20042004 79/51
20032003 99/47
20022002 50/31
20012001 66/31
20002000 41/20
19991999 77/40
19981998 136/86
19971997 98
http://www.weather.gov/oh/hic/flood_stats/recent_individual_deaths.shtml
All vehicle-related fatalities are
shown in red.
Flood Fatalities
Water weighs 62.4 lbs. per cubic foot and typically flows downstream at 6 to 12 mph.
For each foot water rises, 500 lbs. of lateral force are applied to the car.
But the biggest factor is BUOYANCY
For each foot that water rises up the side of the car, the car displaces 1500 lbs. of water
Two feet of water will carry away most automobiles
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http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/water/tadd/
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HYDROMETEOROLOGY VISION
Flash Floodin
Hail>2 in.
Wind Gusts>50kts
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FEMA/NOAA Aerial Photos
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Suzanne Van Cooten, Ph.D.
NOAA/NSSL Research HydrometeorologistSuzanne.Van.Cooten@noaa.gov
(405) 325-6477
Thank ou. Now any Questions and Co ents
With proven technologies and emerging science wecan achieve an Integrated Water Prediction and
Management Systemits time is nowits too late forlater