Post on 21-Dec-2015
Fixed Income - 2 http://www.tfii.orgThe Financial
Institute of Israel
Zvi Wiener
02-588-3049http://pluto.mscc.huji.ac.il/~mswiener/zvi.html
Fixed Income 2
Zvi Wiener FI - 2 slide 2
Plan FI-2
• Example of Duration and Convexity
• Treasuries
• Agencies
• Corporate
• MunicipalsThe Treasury Securities Markets: Overview and Recent Developments, by D. Dupont and B. Sack, Federal Reserve Bulletin, Dec-99.
Zvi Wiener FI - 2 slide 3
Example
Portfolio consists of $1M of a bond with duration of 1 year and $1M worth of a bond with duration of 20 years.
What is the duration of the portfolio?
Zvi Wiener FI - 2 slide 4
Rough calculationDuration of the first bond is 1 year, of the second bond is 20 years.
This means that when IR go 1% up we will lose 1% of the first bond and 20% of the second.
All together we will lose 10.5% of the portfolio.
The duration is (roughly) 10.5 years.
Zvi Wiener FI - 2 slide 5
-0.03 -0.02 -0.01 0.01 0.02 0.03
1.6
1.8
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
Value
2
07.01
07.1
05.01
05.1
1
07.1
1
05.120
20
2020
20
1
rr
Parallel shift
value
Zvi Wiener FI - 2 slide 6
Duration
8212.907.1
20
05.1
1
2
1
8212.9
1
07.1
1
05.1
2
1
0
2020
20
1
xxrxrdx
d
dr
dA
ADA
1
BA
BD
BA
ADD BA
BA
Zvi Wiener FI - 2 slide 7
Convexity
368
1
07.1
1
05.1
0
2020
20
12
2
x
xrxrdx
d
2
2
dr
AdCA
For a simple bond portfolio it does not help much!
It is much more important to consider 2 risk factors!
Zvi Wiener FI - 2 slide 8
Portfolio 2
value
Money +1 -2 +2Term Structure 5% 6% 7%
Time 0 1 5 20
025.007.1
2
06.1
2
05.1
1205
Assets duration = 7.19
Liabilities duration = 4.7169
Zvi Wiener FI - 2 slide 9
8% Coupon BondYield to Maturity T=1 yr. T=10 yr. T=20 yr.
8% 1,000.00 1,000.00 1,000.00
9% 990.64 934.96 907.99
Price Change 0.94% 6.50% 9.20%
Yield to Maturity T=1 yr. T=10 yr. T=20 yr.8% 924.56 456.39 208.29
9% 915.73 414.64 171.93
Price Change 0.96% 9.15% 17.46%
Zero Coupon Bond
Zvi Wiener FI - 2 slide 10
Macaulay Duration(1)
Time untilpayment
(in Years)
(2)
Payment
(3)Payment
Discountedat 5%
(4)
Weight
(5)column (1)multiplied
by (4)Bond A 0.5 $40 $38.095 0.0395 0.01988% 1.0 $40 $36.281 0.0376 0.0376
1.5 $40 $34.553 0.0358 0.05372.0 $1,040 $855.611 0.8871 1.7742
Sum: $964.540 1.000 1.8853
Bond B 0.5-1.5 0 $0 0 0zero 2.0 $1,000 $822.70 1 2Sum $822.70 1 2
Zvi Wiener FI - 2 slide 11
Understanding of Duration/Convexity
What happens with duration when a coupon is paid?
How does convexity of a callable bond depend on interest rate?
How does convexity of a puttable bond depend on interest rate?
Zvi Wiener FI - 2 slide 12
Callable bond
The buyer of a callable bond has written an option to the issuer to call the bond back.
Rationally this should be done when …
Interest rate fall and the debt issuer can refinance at a lower rate.
Zvi Wiener FI - 2 slide 13
Puttable bond
The buyer of a such a bond can request the loan to be returned.
The rational strategy is to exercise this option when interest rates are high enough to provide an interesting alternative.
Zvi Wiener FI - 2 slide 18
Passive Bond Management
Passive management takes bond prices as fairly set and seeks to control only the risk of the fixed-income portfolio.
• Indexing strategy– attempts to replicate a bond index
• Immunization– used to tailor the risk to specific needs (insurance companies, pension funds)
Zvi Wiener FI - 2 slide 19
Bond-Index Funds
Similar to stock indexing.
Major indices: Lehman Brothers, Merill Lynch, Salomon Brothers.
Include: government, corporate, mortgage-backed, Yankee bonds (dollar denominated, SEC registered bonds of foreign issuers, sold in the US).
Zvi Wiener FI - 2 slide 20
Bond-Index Funds
Properties:
many issues
not all are liquid
replacement of maturing issues
Tracking error is a good measurement of performance. According to Salomon Bros. With $100M one can track the index within 4bp. tracking error per month.
Zvi Wiener FI - 2 slide 21
Cellular approach
ttm\Sector Treasury Agency MBS< 1yr 12.1%
1-3 yrs 5.4% 4.1% 3.2%
3-5 yrs 9.2% 6.1%
Zvi Wiener FI - 2 slide 22
Immunization
Immunization techniques refer to strategies used by investors to shield their overall financial status from exposure to interest rate fluctuations.
Zvi Wiener FI - 2 slide 23
Net Worth Immunization
Banks and thrifts have a natural mismatch between assets and liabilities. Liabilities are primarily short-term deposits (low duration), assets are typically loans or mortgages (higher duration).
When will banks lose money, when IR increase or decline?
Zvi Wiener FI - 2 slide 24
Gap Management
ARM are used to reduce duration of bank portfolios.
Other derivative securities can be used.
Capital requirement on duration (exposure).
Basic idea:
to match duration of assets and liabilities.
Zvi Wiener FI - 2 slide 25
Target Date Immunization
Important for pension funds and insurances.
Price risk and reinvestment risk.
What is the correlation between them?
Zvi Wiener FI - 2 slide 29
Target Date Immunization
Accumulatedvalue
0 t* D t
Continuous rebalancingcan keep the terminal value
unchanged
Zvi Wiener FI - 2 slide 30
Good Versus Bad Immunization
value
0 8% r
Single payment obligation
$10,000
Zvi Wiener FI - 2 slide 31
Good Versus Bad Immunization
value
0 8% r
Single payment obligation
Good immunizing strategy$10,000
Zvi Wiener FI - 2 slide 32
Good Versus Bad Immunization
value
0 8% r
Single payment obligation
Good immunizing strategy$10,000
Zvi Wiener FI - 2 slide 33
Good Versus Bad Immunization
value
0 8% r
Single payment obligation
Good immunizing strategy$10,000
Bad immunizing strategy
Zvi Wiener FI - 2 slide 34
Standard Immunization
Is very useful but is based on the assumption of the flat term structure. Often a higher order immunization is used (convexity, etc.).
Another reason for goal oriented mutual funds
(retirement, education, housing, medical expenses).
Zvi Wiener FI - 2 slide 35
Cash Flow Matching and Dedication
Is a very reasonable strategy, but not always realizable.
Uncertainty of payments.
Lack of perfect match
Saving on transaction fees.
Zvi Wiener FI - 2 slide 36
Active Bond Management
Mainly speculative approach based on ability to predict IR or credit enhancement or market imperfections (identifying mispriced loans).
Zvi Wiener FI - 2 slide 37
Substitution Swap
Exchange of one bond for a very similar bond.
Motivation: belief that one of them is mispriced.
Example: 20-yr, 9% coupon Ford Motor bond callable after 5 years at $1,050 versus a 9% coupon Chrysler bond with 20 yr to maturity.
Zvi Wiener FI - 2 slide 42
Interest Rate Swap
One of the major fixed-income tools.
Example: 6m LIBOR versus 7% fixed.
Exchange of net cash flows.
Risk involved: IR risk, default risk (small).
Why the default risk on IR swaps is small?
Zvi Wiener FI - 2 slide 43
Interest Rate Swap
Company A Company BSwap dealer
6.95% 7.05%
LIBOR LIBOR
No need in an actual loan.Can be used as a speculative tool or for hedging.
Zvi Wiener FI - 2 slide 44
Currency Swap
A similar exchange of two loans in different currencies.
Subject to a higher default risk, because of the principal.
Is useful for international companies to hedge currency risk.
Zvi Wiener FI - 2 slide 45
The Treasuries Securities Market
US Treasury debt $3.6Trillion
daily transactions: $190B
yields are viewed as benchmarks
1776, first US issue (Revolutionary War)
Increase during the Civil war, WW1,
tripled during the great depression
exploded during WW2.
Zvi Wiener FI - 2 slide 46
Types of Treasuries securities
• $3.2T - marketable– Bills - up to one year
– Notes 1-10 years when issued
– Bonds longer then 10 years
• 57% are notes, 20% bills and 20% bonds.
• Some are callable (by the Treasury)
• 97% are nominal
Zvi Wiener FI - 2 slide 47
Nonmarketable securities
• Government account series (83%)
• State and Local Government Series (7%)
• saving bonds (7%)
held by off-budget government programs, like social security, local governments, etc.
yield is at least 5bp below marketable Treasuries.
Zvi Wiener FI - 2 slide 48
Issuance of Treasuries
• regularly scheduled auctions = primary market.
• 2,000 brokers and dealers are registered
• Prime dealers are selected by NY Fed - counterparites for open market operations.
Zvi Wiener FI - 2 slide 49
Auctions
• The process begins several days before.
• “when issued market” after the announcement but before it takes place.
• On the day of the auctions bids may be submitted to FED.
• Competitive bids - quantity and yield
• Noncompetitive bids - small orders
Zvi Wiener FI - 2 slide 50
Auctions
• Uniform price method for 2, 5 year notes, TIPS
• Other issues have multiple price auction
• Bidders get securities at their bid price.
• Non-competitive get at the average price of competitive bids.
Zvi Wiener FI - 2 slide 51
Auctions
• $6.5B of 13-week bills and $7.5B of 26 week bills - weekly
• $10B of 52 week bills - every four weeks
• $15B of 2-year notes, every 4 weeks
• $12B of ten -year notes and $10B of 30 years bonds - semiannually.
• Sometimes an old issue may be reopen.
Zvi Wiener FI - 2 slide 52
Cancellations
1986 20 year bond
1990 4 year note
1993 7 year note
1998 3 year note
Zvi Wiener FI - 2 slide 53
Market
Primarily OTC (over the counter) market.
Officially registered at NYSE, but volume is negligible.
Market makers in Treasuries - bid-offer spread.
Six primary dealers - 50% of trades (22 hr/day).
94% - NY, 4% - London, 2% Tokyo.
Zvi Wiener FI - 2 slide 54
Quoting conventions
Coupon securities are quoted in terms of price expressed in dollars.
Clean price excludes accrued interest.
Accrued interest =
next coupon*fraction of time that passed.
Bills are quoted in terms of discount rate as % of face value. Assuming 360 days in a year, i.e. multiplied by 360 and divided by the actual number of days remaining to maturity.
Zvi Wiener FI - 2 slide 55
Price quotes for T-Bills
Bank discount basistF
DYd
360
Yd - annualized yield on a bank discount basis
D - dollar discount = face - price
F - face value
t - number of actual days to maturity
Zvi Wiener FI - 2 slide 57
Price quotes for T-Bills
%75.8100
360
100
569.97100
dY
100 days to maturity
price = $97,569 will be quoted at 8.75%
360
1000875.01000,100$569,97$
Zvi Wiener FI - 2 slide 58
Price quotes for T-Bills
The quoted yield is based on the face value
and not on the actual amount invested.
The yield is annualized on 360 days basis.
Bond equivalent yield = CD equivalent yield
d
d
Yt
YyielequivCD
360
360.
%97.8%75.8100360
%75.8360.
yielequivCD
Zvi Wiener FI - 2 slide 59
Price quotes for Notes and Bonds
periodcouponinDays
periodAIinDayscouponAnnualAI
2
Actual/actual day count convention.
Example: 50 days have passed, 183 days in the period and yearly coupon per $100 is $8, then
AI = $8/2 *50/183 = $1.0929
Zvi Wiener FI - 2 slide 60
Recordkeeping
National Book-Entry System (NBES) maintains
records for depository institutions.
Most trades are delivery versus payment.
Federal Reserve grants finality and provides an
intraday credit to financially healthy depository
institutions.
Zvi Wiener FI - 2 slide 61
Ownership
FED 12%
Depository institutions 7%
Institutional investors 27%
State and local governm. 7%
Foreign and international 33%
Others 14%
Zvi Wiener FI - 2 slide 62
STRIPS
Separate Trading of Registered Interest and Principal of Securities.
Stripping and reconstitution.
About 33% of all outstanding T-bonds are stripped.
Creates zero-coupon securities.
US company must pay tax on accrued interest is taxed every year, so strips create a negative CF.
Zvi Wiener FI - 2 slide 63
Determinants of the Yield Curve
Federal Reserve sets a target level for the fed funds rate - the rate at which depository institutions make uncollaterized overnight loans to one another.
Long-term rates reflect expectations of future rates and can be influenced by the outlook for monetary policy.
Zvi Wiener FI - 2 slide 64
Liquidity
• Bid-offer spread 1-2 cents per $100 face
• Corporate bonds for example 13 cents
• High yield bonds 19 cents
• on-the-run - recently issued in a particular maturity class. With time became off-the-run.
• Flight to Quality (fall 98) bid-ask 16-25 cents.
Zvi Wiener FI - 2 slide 65
Repurchase Agreements
Borrowing and lending using Treasuries and other debt as collateral.
Repo (loan). You sell a security to counterparty and agree to repurchase the same security at a specified price at a later date (often next day).
Reverse Repo - you agree to purchase a security and sell it back at a specified price later.
Zvi Wiener FI - 2 slide 66
Repurchase Agreements
Most repos are general-collateral repo rate.
Some securities are special (for example on-the-run).
Specialness peaks around next auction, then declines sharply.
NY FED operates a securities lending for primary dealers using FED’s portfolio while posting other Treasury security as collateral.
Zvi Wiener FI - 2 slide 67
Treasury Based Derivatives
Futures and options for 2, 5, 10 year notes and bonds are listed by CBOT and CFFE. CNE offers futures and options on bills and other short term interest rate products.
End of October 99 open interest for CBOT long-bond futures was 635,000 (each one based on $100,000 face value).
Daily volume 300,000 contracts.
Zvi Wiener FI - 2 slide 68
Treasury Based Derivatives
CBOT also offers options on Treasury futures
- contract that allows the holder to buy/sell a
future contract at a specified price.
Cheapest-to-deliver option and conversion
factor (compare to commodities).
Zvi Wiener FI - 2 slide 69
TIIS = TIPS
Treasury Inflation Indexed (Protected) Securities.
Since 97, $92B were issued, based on the non-seasonally adjusted CPI lagged 2.5 months.
The quoted price do not reflect the accumulated inflation compensation.
Real price = quoted*index ratio + accrued interest
I-bonds saving bonds that are also CPI indexed.
Zvi Wiener FI - 2 slide 70
TIIS = TIPS
5, 10, 30 years notes and bonds.
Less liquid: 2-6 cents per $100 face.
CBOT offers options and futures on TIPS
Canada, France, England, Israel have similar types of debt.
Zvi Wiener FI - 2 slide 71
T-bills markets
Issuance of T-bills was cut sharply.
Between Dec-96 and Sep-99 the total
outstanding amount of coupon securities
declined 7% while bills declined 16%.
Treasury Debt buybacks. Reverse auctions
trying to remove small issues.
Zvi Wiener FI - 2 slide 72
Government-Sponsored Enterprises
Fannie Mae “benchmark” and Freddie Mac “reference” notes and bond.
Can be electronically transferred through clearing houses as Euroclear and Cedel and NBES.
Outstanding amount $150B with 2-30 years to maturity.
Zvi Wiener FI - 2 slide 73
Government-Sponsored Enterprises
GNMA - Government National Mortgage Association
FHLBS - Federal Home Loan Bank System
Sallie Mar - Student Loan Marketing Association
Zvi Wiener FI - 2 slide 74
Corporate Debt Instruments
• corporate bonds
• medium-term notes
• CP = commercial papers
• ABS = asset backed securities
They have priority over common stocks in the case of bankruptcy.
Zvi Wiener FI - 2 slide 75
Corporate Bonds
Main types of issuers
• utilities
• transportation
• industrial
• banks and financial companies
Zvi Wiener FI - 2 slide 76
Bond Indentures
• trustee
• term bonds, serial bonds
• collateral
• debenture bond - not secured
• guaranteed bonds
Zvi Wiener FI - 2 slide 77
Bond Provisions
• Call and refund provisions - the issuer has the right to redeem the entire amount before maturity. Sometimes there is a premium to be paid in such a case (redemption schedule).
• Special redemption prices for debt redeemed through the sinking fund
• Refunding means replacing by another debt.
Zvi Wiener FI - 2 slide 78
Bond Provisions
• Sinking fund provision sometimes the issuer is required to retire a portion of an issue each year.
– either by cash payment to bondholders (lottery)
– or by buyback bonds
Zvi Wiener FI - 2 slide 79
Bond Rating
• Duff and Phelps Credit Rating Co.
• Fitch Investors Service
• Moody’s Investors Service
• Standard & Poor’s Corporation
Zvi Wiener FI - 2 slide 80
Rating
Moody’s S&P Fitch D&P
Aaa AAA AAA AAA
Aa1 AA+ AA+ AA+
Aa2 AA AA AA
Aa3 AA- AA- AA-
A1 A+ A+ A+
A2 A A A
A3 A- A- A-
Zvi Wiener FI - 2 slide 81
Rating
• BBB- or better = investment grade
• BB+ and below - speculative grade
• D to DDD default
• transition matrix
Zvi Wiener FI - 2 slide 82
One year transition matrix
Aaa Aa A Baa Ba B C&D
Aaa 91.9 7.38 0.72 0 0 0 0
Aa 1.1 91.3 7.1 0.3 0.2 0 0
A 0.1 2.6 91.2 5.3 0.6 0.2 0
Baa 0 0.2 5.4 87.9 5.5 0.8 0.2
Zvi Wiener FI - 2 slide 83
High Yield Bonds
• LBO, downgrading, refinancing
• fallen angels
• deferred interest bonds
• Step-up bonds pay initially low interest which increases with time
Zvi Wiener FI - 2 slide 84
SEC rule 144A
Allows to trade private placements among
qualified institutions.
Zvi Wiener FI - 2 slide 85
Medium Term Notes (MTN)
Notes are registered with the SEC under Rule 415 (the shelf registration) and are offered continuously to investors by an agent of the issuer.
Maturities vary from 9 months to 30 years.
Can be either fixed or floating.
Very flexible way to raise debt!
Zvi Wiener FI - 2 slide 86
Primary Market (MTN)
Issuer posts spreads over Treasuries for a variety of maturities.
Then an agent tries to find an investor. Minimal size is between $1M and $25M.
The schedule can be changes at any time!
Often structured MTNs are used (caps, floors, etc.) = structured notes.
Zvi Wiener FI - 2 slide 87
Structured Notes
Many institutional investors can use swaps and structured notes to participate in markets that were prohibited.
Another use of structured notes is in risk management.
Financial Engineering is used to create securities satisfying the needs of investors.
Zvi Wiener FI - 2 slide 88
Commercial Papers
• Short term unsecured promissory note
• An alternative to short term bank borrowing
• A typical round-lot transaction is $100,000
• In the USA maturity is up to 270 days
• Requires less paperwork
• Those with maturity up to 90 days can be used as collateral for FED discount window.
Zvi Wiener FI - 2 slide 89
Commercial Papers
• Typically rolled over
• Rollover risk is backed by an unused bank credit line
• In order to issue CP one need either a high rating or good collateral
• Sometimes credit enhancement is used (LOC)
• CP issued in the USA by foreigners are called Yankee CP
Zvi Wiener FI - 2 slide 90
Commercial Papers
• Between 71 an 89 there was one default on CP.
• 3 defaults occurred in 89 and 4 in 90
• Direct paper is sold without an agent
• Secondary market is thin
• There is a special rating for CP, P-1,3, A-1,3
• discount instruments, used by money market
Zvi Wiener FI - 2 slide 91
Bankruptcy and Credit Rights
• liquidation - all assets will be distributed
• reorganization - a new corporate entity will result
• a company that files for protection becomes a debtor in possession and continues to operate under the supervision of the court
Zvi Wiener FI - 2 slide 92
Bankruptcy and Credit Rights
Absolute priority rule - senior creditors are paid in full before junior creditors are paid anything.
Works in liquidation but often does not work in reorganization.
Zvi Wiener FI - 2 slide 93
Municipal Securities
Exemption of interest income from federal
taxation.
Issued by states, counties, special districts, cities,
towns, school districts.
Zvi Wiener FI - 2 slide 94
Municipal Securities
Exemption of interest income from federal taxation.
General obligation bonds - backed by tax power
Limited tax general obligation bonds
Revenue bonds - based on specific projects
Zvi Wiener FI - 2 slide 95
Municipal Securities
Airport Revenue Bonds
College and University Revenue Bonds
Hospital Revenue Bonds
Industrial Revenue Bonds
Single-Family Revenue Bonds (mortgages)
Multifamily Revenue Bonds (housing projects)
Water Revenue Bonds
Zvi Wiener FI - 2 slide 96
Hybrid and Special Bond Securities
• Insured bonds - typically by an insurance firm
• Bank-backed municipal bonds (letter of credit)
• Refunded Bonds - a portfolio of safe securities is
placed in trust and they will cover the payments.
• Troubled city bailout bonds
Zvi Wiener FI - 2 slide 97
Municipal Money Market Products
• TAN = tax anticipation notes
• RAN = revenue anticipation notes
• GAN = grant anticipation notes
• BAN = bond anticipation notes
• Tax exempt commercial paper
Zvi Wiener FI - 2 slide 98
Municipal Derivatives
• floaters = floating rate + spread
• inverse floaters = interest - floating rate
• strips
• partial strip = are zeros till a call date and then become coupon type
Zvi Wiener FI - 2 slide 99
Yield on Municipal Bonds
tax-exempt yieldequivalent taxable yield =
1-marginal tax rate
for example bond offers 6.5% and marginal tax rate 40%:
0.065 = 0.1083
1-0.40
Zvi Wiener FI - 2 slide 100
Non-US Bonds
• national bond markets– domestic market
– Foreign marketYankee USA Samurai Japan bulldog UK Rembrandt Holland matador Spain
Zvi Wiener FI - 2 slide 101
International bond market
• Eurobond and Euroyen markets
• Global bond - simultaneous offering
• Typically registered in Luxembourg,
London or Zurich, but traded OTC.
• Supranationals - IBRD, World Bank, etc.
Zvi Wiener FI - 2 slide 102
Eurobond market
• Dual currency bonds (coupon in one currency, principal in another).
• Option currency bond one side can choose the currency.
• Convertible bonds with warrants - can be converted into another asset. Equity, debt, gold or currency warrant.
Zvi Wiener FI - 2 slide 103
Eurobond market
• Floating Rate Notes = FRN based on LIBOR or LIBID
• many are collared
• some are perpetual
Zvi Wiener FI - 2 slide 104
Comparing Yields
bond equivalent yield of Eurodollar bond
= 2[(1+yield to maturity)0.5-1]
for example: A Eurodollar bond with 10% yield has the bond equivalent yield of
2[1.100.5-1] = 9.762%
Zvi Wiener FI - 2 slide 105
Japanese Government Bonds JGB
• short term Treasury bills
• medium term bonds
• long term bonds
• super long term bonds (20 years)
Zvi Wiener FI - 2 slide 106
German Government Bonds
• U-Schatze discount paper up to 2 years
• Kassens = federal government notes (2-6 y.)
• OBLEs = 5 year federal government notes
• Bunds = federal government bonds (6-30 y.)
all coupon payments are annual
Zvi Wiener FI - 2 slide 107
UK Government Bonds Gilts
• straights = bullet bonds (some callable)
• convertibles (option to holder to convert to longer gilts)
• index linked low coupon 2-2.5%
• irredeemable (perpetual)