Post on 02-Jan-2016
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Five notable characteristics of Five notable characteristics of contemporary world:contemporary world:
• Multiple stressesMultiple stresses
• Macro-perturbations of natural Macro-perturbations of natural systemssystems
• Impending energy transitionImpending energy transition
• Rising connectivity and complexityRising connectivity and complexity
• Power shiftPower shift
CONVERGENT STRESSESCONVERGENT STRESSES
OVERLOADOVERLOAD
StressStress__________________
Coping capacityCoping capacity
CONVERGENCE and SYNERGYCONVERGENCE and SYNERGY
Stresses
Overload
X
X
X
X
Overload
x
Populationgrowth
Environmentaldamage
Energyscarcity
Climatechange
Economic instabilityand inequality
x
x
x
TECTONIC STRESSES
Societynonlinear
Naturenonlinear
Co-evolution of Society and NatureCo-evolution of Society and Nature
Nonlinearity: Absence of simple proportionality between cause and effect
We need to shift from seeing the world We need to shift from seeing the world as composed mainly ofas composed mainly of
MACHINESMACHINES
to seeing it as composed mainly ofto seeing it as composed mainly of
COMPLEX SYSTEMSCOMPLEX SYSTEMS
Whereas MACHINESWhereas MACHINES
• can be taken apart, analyzed, and fully can be taken apart, analyzed, and fully understood (they are no more than the sum understood (they are no more than the sum of their parts)of their parts)
• exhibit “normal” or equilibrium patterns of exhibit “normal” or equilibrium patterns of behaviorbehavior
• show proportionality of cause and effect, show proportionality of cause and effect, andand
• can be managed because their behavior can be managed because their behavior predictablepredictable . . .. . .
COMPLEX SYTEMSCOMPLEX SYTEMS
• are more than the sum of their parts (they are more than the sum of their parts (they have have emergentemergent properties) properties)
• can flip from one pattern of behavior to can flip from one pattern of behavior to another (they have another (they have multiple equilibriums)multiple equilibriums)
• show disproportionality of cause and effect show disproportionality of cause and effect (their behavior is often (their behavior is often nonlinearnonlinear, because , because of of feedbacks feedbacks and and synergiessynergies), and), and
• cannot be easily cannot be easily managedmanaged because their because their behavior is often behavior is often unpredictableunpredictable..
We’re moving from a world ofWe’re moving from a world of
RISKRISK
to a world ofto a world of
UNCERTAINTYUNCERTAINTY(unknown unknowns)(unknown unknowns)
So, we must move from “management” toSo, we must move from “management” to
Complex AdaptationComplex Adaptation
CLIMATECLIMATE
Positive feedbacks appear to be Positive feedbacks appear to be developing enormous forcedeveloping enormous force
Changes in the Arctic appear to beChanges in the Arctic appear to beoccurring far faster than expectedoccurring far faster than expected
““Palaeoclimate data show that the Earth’s Palaeoclimate data show that the Earth’s climate is remarkably sensitive to global climate is remarkably sensitive to global forcings. forcings. Positive feedbacks predominate. This Positive feedbacks predominate. This allows the entire planet to be whipsawed allows the entire planet to be whipsawed between climate states.between climate states. . . . Recent greenhouse . . . Recent greenhouse gas emissions place the Earth perilously close to gas emissions place the Earth perilously close to dramatic climate change that could run out of dramatic climate change that could run out of our control, with great dangers for humans and our control, with great dangers for humans and other creatures.”other creatures.”
Hansen et al, Hansen et al, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2007).
GISS analysis of global surface temperature; 2008 point is 11-month mean.
Battisti and Naylor, “Historical warnings of future food insecurity with unprecedented seasonal heat.”Science (9 January 2009): 240-44
Battisti and Naylor, “Historical warnings of future food insecurity with unprecedented seasonal heat.”Science (9 January 2009): 240-44
More rapid warming at polesMore rapid warming at polesOne reason: Ice-albedo feedbackOne reason: Ice-albedo feedback
Atmosphericwarming
Lower reflectivityof ocean surface
Melting ofice
Increased oceanabsorption of sun’s energy
radiativepositive feedback,
fast
20084.52 mK2
““[The] climate change that takes place due to increases in carbon dioxide concentration is largely irreversible for 1,000 years after emissions stop. Following cessation of emissions, removal of atmospheric carbon dioxide decreases radiative forcing, but is largely compensated by slower loss of heat to the ocean, so that atmospheric temperatures do not drop significantly for at least 1,000 years. Among illustrative irreversible impacts that should be expected if atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations increase from current levels near 385 parts per million by volume (ppmv) to a peak of 450–600 ppmv over the coming century are dry-season rainfall reductions in several regions comparable to those of the ‘‘dust bowl’’ era and inexorable sea level rise.”
Solomon et al, “Irreversible climate change due to carbon dioxide emissions,” Solomon et al, “Irreversible climate change due to carbon dioxide emissions,” PNAS (February 10 2009).
VULNERABILITY OF THE GLOBAL FOOD SYSTEMVULNERABILITY OF THE GLOBAL FOOD SYSTEM
China requires about 450 million tons ofChina requires about 450 million tons ofgrain each yeargrain each year
World grain trade is about 200 million tonsWorld grain trade is about 200 million tons
An intervention by China on world grainAn intervention by China on world grainmarkets for only 10 percent of its needsmarkets for only 10 percent of its needswould absorb 25 percent of grain onwould absorb 25 percent of grain onworld marketsworld markets
WEAKENING OF EAST ASIAN MONSOON
IPCC 2007
Source: Earth's energy imbalance: Confirmation and implications. Science 308, 1431, 2005.
(A) Forcings used to drive climate simulations.
(B) Simulated and observed surface temperature change.
ENERGYENERGY
We are probably near peakWe are probably near peakglobal output of global output of
conventional oilconventional oil
Energy costs will continue to Energy costs will continue to riserise
relative to other costs in relative to other costs in comingcoming
yearsyears
Producing energy costs energyProducing energy costs energy
This principle is best understoodThis principle is best understoodthrough the concept ofthrough the concept of
Energy Return onEnergy Return onInvestment (EROI)Investment (EROI)
Trajectory of Global Fossil Fuel Emissions
Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS
Recent emissions
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
CO
2 E
mis
sion
s (G
tC y
-1)
5
6
7
8
9
10Actual emissions: CDIACActual emissions: EIA450ppm stabilisation650ppm stabilisationA1FI A1B A1T A2 B1 B2
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100C
O2 E
mis
sion
s (G
tC y
-1)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30Actual emissions: CDIAC450ppm stabilisation650ppm stabilisationA1FI A1B A1T A2 B1 B2
50-year constant growth rates
to 2050
B1 1.1%,
A1B 1.7%,
A2 1.8%
A1FI 2.4%
Observed
2000-2006 3.3%
20062005
BRITTLENESSBRITTLENESS
Increased Risk of Cascading FailureIncreased Risk of Cascading FailureAs a result of tight coupling of nodesAs a result of tight coupling of nodes
ANOTHER RESPONSE:
Increase system resilience
RESILIENT people, RESILIENT people, institutionsinstitutions
and societies . . .and societies . . .
have the capability to withstandhave the capability to withstandshock without catastrophic failureshock without catastrophic failure
In a complex, tightly connectedIn a complex, tightly connectedworld exhibiting increasinglyworld exhibiting increasinglyfrequent and severe systemfrequent and severe systemshock . . .shock . . .
the balance of economic andthe balance of economic andsocial investment shouldsocial investment shouldshift away from efficiencyshift away from efficiencytowards resilience.towards resilience.
POWER SHIFTPOWER SHIFT
Individuals and small groupsIndividuals and small groupsare developing immense capacityare developing immense capacityto kill and destroyto kill and destroy
In this new In this new world, what world, what
should we do?should we do?
• Efficiency and conservation
• Renewables (GSHPs)
• Coal with CCS and nuclear
• Unconventional technologies (UCG, enhanced geothermal, stratospheric windmills)
• Atmospheric carbon capture
• Geoengineering
• Shifting away from conventionally defined “growth”
Coping with CarbonStrategies from conventional to radical(assuming a significant carbon price)
GROWTH = SOLVENCY
GROWTH = FREEDOM
GROWTH = PEACE
Increase system resilience:
RESILIENT people, RESILIENT people, institutionsinstitutions
and societies . . .and societies . . .
have the capability to withstandhave the capability to withstandshock without catastrophic failureshock without catastrophic failure
Connectivity and ResilienceConnectivity and Resilience
Connectivity
Resilience
FIVE PERCEPTUAL SHIFTSFIVE PERCEPTUAL SHIFTSto achieve the Prospective Mindto achieve the Prospective Mind
• Systems: From MECHANICAL to Systems: From MECHANICAL to COMPLEXCOMPLEX
• Self: From CONSUMER to PROBLEMSelf: From CONSUMER to PROBLEM SOLVERSOLVER
• Values: From UTILITARIAN to MORAL Values: From UTILITARIAN to MORAL andand
EXISTENTIALEXISTENTIAL
• Knowledge: From DISCIPLINARY toKnowledge: From DISCIPLINARY to INTEGRATEDINTEGRATED
• Community: From NATIONAL, ETHNIC andCommunity: From NATIONAL, ETHNIC and CULTURAL to GLOBALCULTURAL to GLOBAL