Post on 24-Sep-2019
INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS STRATEGIES, INC.
632 Industrial Way | Los Gatos CA 95030 | USA | 408 395 9585 | 408 395 5389 (fax)
www.ibs-inc.net | info@ibs-inc.net
FINFET AND FD SOI: MARKET AND COST ANALYSIS
SEPTEMBER 18, 2018
IBS
© 2018 INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS STRATEGIES, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MS-FDSOI9.1818 SLIDE 2
INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS STRATEGIES BACKGROUND
▪ In business for 30 years
▪ Interface with most global leaders in electronics industry, with customers in U.S., Europe, South
Korea, Japan, Taiwan, China, India, etc
▪ Interface with and support major global corporations such as Intel, Qualcomm, Broadcom, Microsoft,
Nokia, Samsung, SK Hynix, Sony, Toshiba, Apple, Cisco, Huawei, IBM, Fujitsu, Canon, NEC,
Hitachi, Renesas, TSMC, STMicroelectronics, TI, ARM, Cadence, Synopsys, Mentor Graphics,
Seagate, Globalfoundries, SMIC, NXP Semiconductors, and others
▪ Interface with and support financial institutions such as Goldman Sachs, Carlyle, Blackstone,
CitiGroup, Warburg Pincus, Walden, KKR, Morgan Stanley, Credit Suisse, BNP Paribas, Bain
Capital, Bank of America, TPG, and others
▪ Strong expertise in China
Published two books on China: China’s Globalization (How China Becomes No. 1) and Chinamerica
(McGraw Hill) and contributed to Wall Street Journal, Economist, New York Times, Forbes blogs,
China Daily, Global Times, EE Times, Xinhua, etc
▪ Support of strategic initiatives for number of global technology leaders
IBS HAS HIGH MARKET SHARE ON TECHNOLOGY AND STRATEGY BUSINESS
IBS
© 2018 INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS STRATEGIES, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MS-FDSOI9.1818 SLIDE 3
KEY ISSUES IN SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY
▪ AI will be key driver for growth of semiconductor industry over next decade
▪ AI capabilities will transform many industries
• Autonomous driving and autonomous transportation
• Image enhancement for three-image-sensor-based smartphones
• AR capabilities for smartphones, including support for ToF
• Search engines in data centers
• VR platforms for gaming and other applications
▪ Smartphones are largest consumer of semiconductor products
• Smartphone volume is declining in 2018, but semiconductor content per phone is increasing
• Largest smartphone vendors by unit volume in 2018 are Samsung, Huawei, and Apple followed by
Xiaomi, OPPO, and Vivo
(Four Chinese vendors are in top six global smartphone vendors)
IBS
© 2018 INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS STRATEGIES, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MS-FDSOI9.1818 SLIDE 4
KEY ISSUES IN SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY (CONTINUED)
▪ Autonomous driving is building momentum
• While Tesla is technology leader, largest market for autonomous driving in 2020 to 2027 will be
China
• Growth of ADAS infrastructure in China is supported by 5G
• China is 12 to 18 months ahead of others in 5G technology
Will have three million to four million 5G base stations in 2020 to 2021
▪ Electrification of vehicles is in high growth, with strong demand for silicon IGBT products
SiC and GaN will be high growth, which will provide opportunities for substrates and foundry support
▪ Fan-out wafer-level packaging technology is also in high growth, with role of foundry vendors
increasing in support of packaging
OSATs will continue to grow and increase participation in high-density fan-out
SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY CONTINUES TO HAVE HIGH LEVELS OF INNOVATION
IBS
© 2018 INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS STRATEGIES, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MS-FDSOI9.1818 SLIDE 5
WAFER SUPPLY
▪ Three major technologies will dominate IC supply, including:
• FinFET: Digital emphasis
• HKMG bulk CMOS: Probable limit at 22nm
• FD SOI: Limits at 12nm or potentially 10nm
▪ 7nm FinFET will be in high volume in Q4/2018 and is projected to represent 25% of TSMC’s
revenues in Q4/2018
• 10nm represented 25% of TSMC’s revenues ($2339 million) in Q4/2017 and 13% ($996
million) in Q2/2018
• 5nm is scheduled for high-volume production in H2/2020
• Samsung has similar schedule to TSMC and is potentially ahead of TSMC in process
technology
• FinFETs are highly effective for digital designs but marginal for RF and analog-centric mixed-
signal designs
IBS
© 2018 INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS STRATEGIES, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MS-FDSOI9.1818 SLIDE 6
WAFER SUPPLY (CONTINUED)
▪ HKMG bulk CMOS is in high-volume production
• 28/22nm revenues will be $11.5 billion in 2018
• Bulk CMOS is also used for >28nm, where revenues will be $32.9 billion in 2018
• Key limitation of bulk CMOS is difficulty with scaling below 22nm
(Some volume production in past was at 20nm)
▪ FD SOI transistor cost can be lower than bulk CMOS and FinFET because of fewer mask steps
• FD SOI has very low active and standby power consumption with use of back biasing
• RF capabilities of FD SOI are superior to bulk CMOS and are much better than FinFET
SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY SHOULD PLAN TO HAVE THREE MAINSTREAM PROCESS
TECHNOLOGIES IN FUTURE
IBS
© 2018 INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS STRATEGIES, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MS-FDSOI9.1818 SLIDE 7
TRANSISTOR DENSITY
CHIP (100mm² WITH 7nm PLUS) WITH 10.5 BILLION TRANSISTORS
MAY COST $500 MILLION TO DESIGN
16nm 12nm 10nm 7nm 7nm Plus 5nm 3nm
Transistor density (M/mm²) 26.4 31.7 49.0 87.1 104.5 156.8 196.0
Transistor count (MU)
20mm² 528 634 980 1,742 2,090 3,136 3,920
40mm² 1,056 1,268 1,960 3,484 4,180 6,272 7,840
60mm² 1,584 1,902 2,940 5,226 6,270 9,408 11,760
80mm² 2,112 2,536 3,920 6,968 8,360 12,544 15,680
100mm² 2,640 3,170 4,900 8,710 10,450 15,680 19,600
200mm² 5,280 6,340 9,800 17,420 20,900 31,360 39,200
IBS
© 2018 INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS STRATEGIES, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MS-FDSOI9.1818 SLIDE 8
ADVANCED DESIGN COSTS
LIMITS NUMBER OF PARTICIPANTS IN ADVANCED TECHNOLOGIES
$28.5M$37.7M
$51.3M$70.3M
$106.3M
$174.4M
$297.8M
$542.2M
$0M
$145M
$290M
$435M
$580M
65nm 40nm 28nm 22nm 16nm 10nm 7nm 5nm
Adva
nced D
esig
n C
ost
Prototype
Physical
Software
Verification
Architecture
IP Qualification
Validation
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© 2018 INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS STRATEGIES, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
Number of years 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Planar (28nm)
Digital
Mixed-signal (digital-centric)
RF
Mixed-signal (analog-centric)
Embedded nonvolatile memory*
Image sensors
Other
FinFET (16/14nm)
Digital 16/14nm
Digital 10nm
Note:
* Includes automotive.
MS-FDSOI9.1818 SLIDE 9
LIFETIME OF WAFER FABS
FINFETS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE STRONG DEMAND FOR DIGITAL DESIGNS
IBS
© 2018 INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS STRATEGIES, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MS-FDSOI9.1818 SLIDE 10
TSMC’S REVENUES BY FEATURE DIMENSION (FY)
7nm WILL REPRESENT 25% OF TOTAL REVENUES IN Q4/2018,
WHICH WILL BE APPROXIMATELY $2.8 BILLION
($M) Q1 % Q2 % Q3 % Q4 % TOTAL Q1 % Q2 % Q3 % Q4 % TOTAL Q1 % Q2 % TOTAL
10nm -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 72 1 850 10 2,339 25 3,261 1,548 19 996 13 2,544
20/16nm 1,449 23 1,580 23 2,500 31 2,680 33 8,209 2,444 31 1,874 26 2,040 24 1,871 20 8,230 1,792 22 1,915 25 3,707
28nm 1,891 30 1,923 28 1,935 24 1,949 24 7,698 1,971 25 1,947 27 1,955 23 1,684 18 7,557 1,629 20 1,762 23 3,391
45/40nm 882 14 1,030 15 1,048 13 974 12 3,935 1,025 13 937 13 1,020 12 936 10 3,918 896 11 843 11 1,739
65nm 630 10 824 12 887 11 893 11 3,235 867 11 721 10 850 10 842 9 3,280 733 9 689 9 1,423
90nm 378 6 343 5 403 5 406 5 1,531 315 4 360 5 425 5 374 4 1,475 407 5 383 5 790
0.13/0.11µm 126 2 137 2 242 3 162 2 668 158 2 216 3 255 3 187 2 816 163 2 153 2 316
0.18/0.15µm 693 11 756 11 726 9 812 10 2,987 867 11 793 11 850 10 842 9 3,352 733 9 689 9 1,423
≥0.25µm 252 4 275 4 323 4 244 3 1,093 237 3 288 4 255 3 281 3 1,061 244 3 230 3 474
TOTAL 6,302 100 6,869 100 8,064 100 8,120 100 29,355 7,885 100 7,209 100 8,499 100 9,357 100 32,951 8,146 100 7,660 100 15,806
2017
(Dec 31, 2017)2016
2018
IBS
© 2018 INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS STRATEGIES, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
$0.92 $0.90
$1.07 $1.11
$1.43 $1.45
$1.52
0.00
0.35
0.70
1.05
1.40
1.75
28nm HKMG 28nm FD SOI 22nm FD SOI 12nm FD SOI 16nm FinFET 10nm FinFET 7nm FinFET
Costs
per
100M
Gate
s (
$)
MS-FDSOI9.1818 SLIDE 11
PERSPECTIVE ON GATE COSTS
FD SOI IS COST COMPETITIVE
IBS
© 2018 INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS STRATEGIES, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MS-FDSOI9.1818 SLIDE 12
COST BENEFITS OF FD SOI
▪ Gate cost of 22nm FD SOI is comparable to 28nm HKMG bulk CMOS (depends
on depreciation level)
▪ 12nm FD SOI will have lower gate cost than FinFETs
22.4% lower than 16nm FinFET, 23.4% lower than 10nm FinFET, and 27.0%
lower than 7nm FinFET
Key reason for lower gate cost of 12nm FD SOI is fewer number of mask steps,
which compensates for higher substrate costs
▪ Present focus of FD SOI is on 28/22nm, but with roadmaps to 18nm and 12nm
FINFETS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE GROWTH, WITH TSMC AND
SAMSUNG AS FOUNDRY VENDORS FOR ≤10nm
INTEL WILL BE POTENTIAL CANDIDATE IN FUTURE
IBS
© 2018 INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS STRATEGIES, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MS-FDSOI9.1818 SLIDE 13
IMAGE SENSOR MARKET
ISP IS ONE POTENTIAL GROWTH MARKET FOR FD SOI
1.4 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.9 3.10.1 0.10.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3
0.10.1 0.3 0.4
0.60.8
1.01.2
0.2 0.30.4
0.60.7
0.91.1
1.31.5
0.2 0.3 0.40.6
0.81.2
1.6
2.2
2.8
3.3
3.9
4.5
3.33.8
4.24.6
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.6
7.2
7.8
8.4
9.1
5.05.6
6.3
7.2
8.2
9.4
10.8
12.4
14.2
15.9
17.7
19.6
0
7
14
21
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Volu
me o
f Im
age S
ensors
(B
U)
AR
VR
Robots
Other
Automotive
Smartphone
IBS
© 2018 INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS STRATEGIES, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MS-FDSOI9.1818 SLIDE 14
ISP WAFER REQUIREMENTS
▪ Volume will be 19.6 billion units in 2027
With 30mm² chip size and 1950 good dies per wafer, will require 10.1 million wafers (842,000 WPM)
▪ Each image sensor will require ISP, which is bonded directly to image sensor
ISP will also require 842,000 WPM in 2027
▪ FD SOI may provide better analog functionality (ADC), lower noise, and lower power consumption
compared to 22nm HKMG bulk CMOS and 16nm FinFETs
FD SOI may also give cost-competitive unit area with 22nm bulk CMOS due to fewer mask steps
Cost per unit area of FinFET is too high at ≤16nm for ISP support
▪ ISP functionality will need to be optimized for specific applications such as automotive, security, and
AR-based smartphones
Result is that there will be many ISP products
EXAMPLE OF APPLICATION THAT MAY BENEFIT FROM FD SOI IS ISP
KEY FACTORS ARE 28nm, 22nm, OR 18nm AS WELL AS DIE COST
IBS
© 2018 INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS STRATEGIES, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MS-FDSOI9.1818 SLIDE 15
IOT SEMICONDUCTOR MARKET
IOT MARKET HAS GOOD GROWTH POTENTIAL AND IS GOOD CANDIDATE FOR FD SOI
$17.8B
$20.4B
$22.6B
$25.0B$26.9B
$29.7B
$32.9B
$36.5B
$40.6B
$45.2B
$50.5B
$56.7B
$0B
$20B
$40B
$60B
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
IoT S
em
iconducto
r M
ark
et
Analog
Controllers/Processors
ASSPs
Connectivity
Memory
IBS
© 2018 INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS STRATEGIES, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MS-FDSOI9.1818 SLIDE 16
KEY ISSUES IN IOT SEMICONDUCTORS
▪ IoT applications will experience strong growth because efficient connectivity to
cloud is emerging
LPWA (primarily NB-IoT) will be key connectivity in short term and 5G in longer
term
▪ Approaches for monetizing data are being established by number of companies
AI technology for ADAS and consumer health is building momentum
▪ Wearable health monitors also represent IoT devices that have high growth
potential
Will have sensors, ADC, processors, and NB-IoT
Best technology option is FD SOI due to support of RF and low-noise analog
functionality and low power
IBS
© 2018 INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS STRATEGIES, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MS-FDSOI9.1818 SLIDE 17
KEY ISSUES IN IOT SEMICONDUCTORS (CONTINUED)
EDGE DEVICES, WHICH INCLUDE IOT, HAVE HIGH GROWTH POTENTIAL
FD SOI IS BEST TECHNOLOGY BECAUSE OF LOW POWER CONSUMPTION
AND RF CONNECTIVITY
IOT BUILDING BLOCK FUNCTIONS
Sensing Amplification Processing
Can be image
sensors, MEMS,
radar, LIDAR,
and others
Value can be
<$0.01 to
>$1000.00
Transmission Analytics Implementation
Can be
amplifiers
Can also include
filters
Can be
equivalent to
Arm Cortex-M0
and up to
100TOPS for
level 5
autonomous
driving
Can be Wi-Fi,
Bluetooth,
ZigBee, LTE-M,
NB-IoT, and
Sigfox, and 5G
Can be deep
learning with AI
and very high
performance
Can include
training and
inference
Key factor is in
how data is
utilized and
monetized
IBS
© 2018 INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS STRATEGIES, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MS-FDSOI9.1818 SLIDE 18
PERSPECTIVE ON CHINA
▪ China is changing from being follower in many areas of technology to becoming leader
▪ China is leader in mobile 5G adoption and will have one billion 5G users in 2025 to 2028
▪ China will be volume leader in electric vehicles (40 million units in 2027 compared to one million units
in 2017)
Large battery capacity is being established to support electrification
▪ Autonomous driving is expected to increase rapidly in China, with Baidu being key driver
▪ Display capabilities are strengthening in China
OLED technology of BOE is becoming competitive
▪ China is building wafer capacity for FinFETs (TSMC and SMIC) and bulk CMOS (SMIC, Huali,
HHGrace, and CSMC)
There is excess capacity in 28nm bulk CMOS in Q3/2018
IT IS IMPORTANT FOR CHINA TO ALSO BUILD LARGE WAFER FAB CAPACITY FOR FD SOI
NEAR-TERM SUPPLY COMES FROM GLOBALFOUNDRIES AND SAMSUNG
IBS
© 2018 INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS STRATEGIES, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
$128.0B $129.5B
$158.8B$170.2B
$243.5B
$276.6B
$330.7B
$396.8B
$478.5B
$527.0B
15.8% 23.6% 31.5% 37.8% 41.2% 45.7% 50.4% 56.9% 62.9% 64.2%
$0B
$114B
$228B
$342B
$456B
$570B
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2027
Sem
iconducto
r C
onsum
ption i
n C
hin
a
Chinese ElectronicsEquipment Companies
Foreign Electronics Equipment Companies
MS-FDSOI9.1818 SLIDE 19
SEMICONDUCTOR CONSUMPTION PATTERN IN CHINA
CHINESE COMPANIES CONSUMED 15.8% OF TOTAL SEMICONDUCTORS IN CHINA IN 2010
BUT WILL CONSUME 64.2% IN 2027
IBS
© 2018 INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS STRATEGIES, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MS-FDSOI9.1818 SLIDE 20
SEMICONDUCTOR SUPPLY IN CHINA
4.5% 7.6% 8.9% 11.2% 11.7% 14.6% 17.1% 20.2% 25.6% 29.6%
0.9%3.3%
7.8%
10.6%
10.8%
$128.0B $129.5B
$158.8B$170.2B
$243.5B
$276.6B
$330.7B
$396.8B
$478.5B
$527.0B
$0B
$114B
$228B
$342B
$456B
$570B
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2027
Sem
iconducto
r S
upply
in C
hin
a
TOTAL SEMICONDUCTORMARKET IN CHINA
Supply from Chinese
Semiconductor
Companies
Supply from Foreign Semiconductor
Companies
Impact of China's $47 Billion
Investments
IBS
© 2018 INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS STRATEGIES, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
2566
102
175
264
361415
468519
8
37
82
120
165
238
313
394
25
74
139
257
384
526
653
781
913
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Num
ber
of
5G
Sm
art
phones (
MU
)
Other
China
MS-FDSOI9.1818 SLIDE 21
5G SMARTPHONE VOLUMES
CHINA IS LEADER IN SMARTPHONE VOLUME AND 5G
IBS
© 2018 INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS STRATEGIES, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MS-FDSOI9.1818
45%
64%
78%
84%
87%
78%84%
46%
68% 76% 81% 84% 80% 83%
40% 49% 57%66% 71% 76% 78%
55%
36%
22%
16%13% 22%
16%
54%
32% 24%19%
16% 20% 17%
60% 51% 43% 34% 29% 24% 22%
1257
1561
1950
20452104 2070
1836
298360 353
313266 268 267
172214 224 235 221 223 225
0
600
1,200
1,800
2,400
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018E 2020E 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018E 2020E 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018E 2020E
Mobile Phone PC/Laptop Color TV
Ele
ctr
onic
s Industr
y P
roduction (
MU
)
Other
China
45% in 2008
78% in 2018
SLIDE 22
CHINA ELECTRONICS INDUSTRY PRODUCTION
IBS
© 2018 INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS STRATEGIES, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
$19.3B $19.6B $20.0B
$21.2B
$22.5B
$23.9B
$25.4B
$27.0B
$28.7B
$30.4B
100.0% 100.0% 99.4% 95.7% 92.2% 88.2% 84.2% 80.0% 75.7% 71.6%$0B
$8B
$16B
$24B
$32B
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
TA
M F
oundry
for
FD
SO
I18/12nm
28/22nm
MS-FDSOI9.1818 SLIDE 23
TAM FD SOI FOUNDRY
18/12nm TAM IS BASED ON ≤16nm FOUNDRY MARKET WHILE
28/22nm TAM IS BASED ON 28/22nm AND 45nm FOUNDRY MARKET
LARGE FOUNDRY TAM FOR FD SOI
IBS
© 2018 INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS STRATEGIES, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MS-FDSOI9.1818 SLIDE 24
TAM FD SOI PRODUCT VALUE
FD SOI PRODUCT VALUE IS BASED ON LOWER COST, LOWER POWER CONSUMPTION,
AND COMPETITIVE PERFORMANCE
$48.4B $49.0B $50.0B
$53.0B
$56.0B
$59.4B
$63.0B
$67.0B
$71.0B
$75.1B
100.0% 100.0% 99.5% 95.8% 92.5% 88.7% 84.7% 80.7% 76.4% 72.5%$0B
$20B
$40B
$60B
$80B
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
TA
M F
D S
OI
Pro
ducts
18/12nm
28/22nm
IBS
© 2018 INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS STRATEGIES, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MS-FDSOI9.1818 SLIDE 25
CONCLUSION
▪ Semiconductor market is in growth mode, but there will be some volatility in 2020
Smartphones are largest user of semiconductors
Trade issues, however, could disrupt smartphone market
AI is key long-term growth driver for smartphones and other applications
▪ China is leader in 5G, with installation of three million to four million base stations by 2020 or
2021
Projection of one billion 5G users for 2025 to 2028
▪ Migration for digital designs to 7nm in 2018, 7nm Plus in 2019, and potentially 5nm in 2020
TSMC and Samsung will likely be only foundry vendors at ≤7nm
▪ FD SOI, which includes 28nm, 22nm, 18nm, and 12nm, is best technology for many
applications
FD SOI supply comes from Globalfoundries and Samsung
IBS
© 2018 INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS STRATEGIES, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MS-FDSOI9.1818 SLIDE 26
CONCLUSION (CONTINUED)
▪ There are major benefits from China to support adoption of FD SOI for high-volume
products that need low power consumption, RF connectivity, and analog-centric mixed-
signal designs
FD SOI can provide product differentiation and optimize competitiveness of end designs, which
is important in global markets as well as China market
▪ It is important to develop new architectures that utilize ultra-low-power benefits of FD SOI at
12nm in order to give lower cost products than FinFETs for AR and other AI-centric mobile
applications
VeriSilicon is already demonstrating leadership capabilities in new architectures
HiSilicon is one of global leaders in semiconductor design at 7nm for smartphones and other
applications
THERE ARE MANY AREAS OF HIGH-GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES WITHIN
SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY, AND CHINA REPRESENTS KEY MARKET