Post on 14-Jan-2016
description
Antonella Sanna(2), E. Scoccimarro(1), S. Gualdi(1,2), A. Bellucci(2), M. Montesarchio(2), E. Bucchignani(2,3), A. Navarra(1,2)
(1)INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (National Institute for Geophysics and Volcanology), Bologna, Italy(2)CMCC - Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (Euro-Mediterranean Centre for Climate Change), Bologna, Italy
(3)CIRA - Centro Italiano Ricerche Aerospaziali
EXTREME EVENTS
AS REPRESENTED BY HIGH RESOLUTION
CMCC CLIMATE MODELS
AT GLOBAL AND REGIONAL (Euro-Mediterranean) SCALE
“International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk” Alghero, 5 October 2011
STRUCTURE OF PRESENTATIONSTRUCTURE OF PRESENTATION
•Brief models description
•Indexes definition
•Examples of results
•Model verification
2
“International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk” Alghero, 5 October 2011
MODELS DESCRIPTION
3
“International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk” Alghero, 5 October 2011
SST
CLIMATE MODELS AT CMCC: the global modelCLIMATE MODELS AT CMCC: the global model
4
GLOBAL ATMOSPHERE MODEL (historical+sresa1b prescribed gases and
aerosols)
ECHAM5 T159 ~ 80 km and 31 vert. levels
Roeckner et al. (2003)
MEDITERRANEANSEA MODEL
NEMO/MFS 1/16° ~ 7 km71 vert. levels
Oddo et al. (2009)
GLOBAL OCEAN & SEA-ICE MODEL
OPA/ORCA2 2º ~200 km31 vert, levels
Madec et al. (1998)
LOUVAIN-LA-NEUVE SEA- ICE MODEL
Timmermann et al. (2005)
COUPLER
OASIS 3
Valcke (2006)
Heat, Water and Momentum Flux
SST and Sea-ice
Heat, Water and Momentum Flux
T, S,u, v, η
Coupling between atmosphere and oceans every 2 hours
Coupling between global ocean and Mediterranean Sea every 8 hours
“International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk” Alghero, 5 October 2011
5
CLIMATE MODELS AT CMCC: the regional modelCLIMATE MODELS AT CMCC: the regional model
CMCC-CLM Regional Climate Model (RCM) domain. The horizontal resolution is 14 km. The simulation is forced using 6 hourly data from CMCC-MED over 1970-2100 period.
“International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk” Alghero, 5 October 2011
DATA AVAILABILITYDATA AVAILABILITY
1 Global model (T159, 2ox2o, 1/16°)
2 Regional model ~ 14 km
3 Both climate model simulations cover the period 1970-2100
6
INDEXES FOR EXTREME EVENTS
CHARACTERIZATION
7
“International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk” Alghero, 5 October 2011
TEMPERATURE INDEXES:TEMPERATURE INDEXES:
8
5th Percentile of the daily minimum temperature: TN5P
10th Percentile of the daily minimum temperature: TN10P
95th Percentile of the daily minimum temperature: TN95P
90th Percentile of the daily minimum temperature: TN90P
Seasonal average of minimum daily temperature: MEANTN
5th Percentile of the daily maximum temperature: TX5P
10th Percentile of the daily maximum temperature: TX10P
95th Percentile of the daily maximum temperature: TX95P
90th Percentile of the daily maximum temperature: TX90P
Seasonal average of maximum daily temperature: MEANTX
Total number of consecutive days with maximum daily
temperature exceeding the long term (1971-2100)
90th percentile: WSDI90
Total number of consecutive days with minimum daily
temperature is below the long term (1971-2100)
10th percentile: CSDI10
“International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk” Alghero, 5 October 2011
PRECIPITATION INDEXES:PRECIPITATION INDEXES:
9
95th Percentile of the total daily precipitation: PREC95P
90th Percentile of the total daily precipitation: PREC90P
5th Percentile of the total daily precipitation: PREC5P
10th Percentile of the total daily precipitation: PREC10P
Number of days with daily precipitation exceeding
the long term (1971-2100) 90th percentile : R90N
Number of days with daily precipitation exceeding
the long term (1971-2100) 95th percentile : R95N
Number of days with daily precipitation lower than
the long term (1971-2100) 10th percentile : RL10N
Number of days with daily precipitation lower than
the long term (1971-2100) 5th percentile : RL5N
Averaged daily precipitation over wet days
(wet day defined if precipitation is >= 1[mm/day]): SDII
Maximum (not total) number of consecutive dry days
(dry day defined if precipitation is < 1 [mm/day]): CDD
“International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk” Alghero, 5 October 2011
WIND INDEXES:WIND INDEXES:
10
95th Percentile of the 10 meter wind speed: WI95P
90th Percentile of the 10 meter wind speed: WI90P
Number of days with daily wind speed exceeding
the long term (1971-2100) 90th percentile : WI90N
Number of days with daily wind speed exceeding
the long term (1971-2100) 95th percentile : WI95N
95th Percentile of the 10 meter maximum wind speed: WIMAX95P
90th Percentile of the 10 meter maximum wind speed: WIMAX90P
Number of days with maximum wind speed exceeding
the long term (1971-2100) 90th percentile : WIMAX90N
Number of days with maximum wind speed exceeding
the long term (1971-2100) 95th percentile : WIMAX95N
“International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk” Alghero, 5 October 2011
EXAMPLES OF RESULTS
11
“International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk” Alghero, 5 October 2011
Example: CMCC global model TX90P and trendsExample: CMCC global model TX90P and trends
SUMMER SEASON SUMMER SEASON
12
“International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk” Alghero, 5 October 2011
13
Example: CMCC global model PREC10P and trendsExample: CMCC global model PREC10P and trends
SUMMER SEASON SUMMER SEASON
“International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk” Alghero, 5 October 2011
14
Example: CMCC global model WI90P and trendsExample: CMCC global model WI90P and trends
SUMMER SEASON SUMMER SEASON
“International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk” Alghero, 5 October 2011
15
Example: CMCC global model WI90N and trendsExample: CMCC global model WI90N and trends
SUMMER SEASON SUMMER SEASON
“International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk” Alghero, 5 October 2011
MODEL VERIFICATION
16
“International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk” Alghero, 5 October 2011
OBSERVATIONAL DATASET: SPAIN02OBSERVATIONAL DATASET: SPAIN02
Spain02 is a new high-resolution daily precipitation and maximum and minimum temperatures gridded dataset developed for
peninsular Spain and the Balearic islands. A dense network of ~2500 quality-controlled stations (~250 for temperatures) from the
Spanish Meteorological Agency (AEMET) was selected to build the Spain02 grid with a regular 0.2º (aprox. 20 km) horizonal resolution
spanning the period from 1950 to 2008. The gridding methodology used for precipitation is based on a two step kriging approach
(binary for precipitation outcomes, and ordinary for amounts); in the case of temperatures, thin plane splines are fitted to the monthly
data considering the orography (elevation) and an ordinary kriging was later applied to the residuals.
17
“International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk” Alghero, 5 October 2011
PREC90P: DJF 1971-2000PREC90P: DJF 1971-2000
18
“International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk” Alghero, 5 October 2011
PREC90P: JJA 1971-2000PREC90P: JJA 1971-2000
19
“International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk” Alghero, 5 October 2011
PREC10P: DJF 1971-2000PREC10P: DJF 1971-2000
20
“International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk” Alghero, 5 October 2011
PREC10P: JJA 1971-2000PREC10P: JJA 1971-2000
21
“International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk” Alghero, 5 October 2011
TX90P: DJF 1971-2000TX90P: DJF 1971-2000
22
“International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk” Alghero, 5 October 2011
TX90P: JJA 1971-2000TX90P: JJA 1971-2000
23
“International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk” Alghero, 5 October 2011
TN10P: DJF 1971-2000TN10P: DJF 1971-2000
24
“International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk” Alghero, 5 October 2011
TN10P: JJA 1971-2000TN10P: JJA 1971-2000
25
“International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk” Alghero, 5 October 2011
The authors thank AEMET and UC for the data provided for this work (Spain02 dataset)
“International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk” Alghero, 5 October 2011