Post on 21-Jan-2016
Evaluation of concentrations of air pollutants and depositions of HMs over the EECCA and SEE
regions
Ilia Ilyin, EMEP/MSC-E
EMEP/MSC-E TFHM, May 14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia
Convention Action plan for EECCA countries (ECE.EB.AIR/WG.5/2007/17)
Involvement of EECCA/SEE countries in the Convention processes is one of the
priorities of CLRTAP
Programme for providing EECCA countries with practical and methodological support (EMEP)
Joint activities/workshops of EMEP Centres and national experts (emissions, monitoring, modelling … )
Participation of national experts in Task Forces including financial support from EMEP Dissemination of materials available in Russian
Expanding of EMEP monitoring network
Extension of EMEP domain to cover Central Asian countries
EMEP/MSC-E TFHM, May 14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia
Inclusion of the Central Asian Countries in EMEP
domain
Monitoring network
Emission data
Model results and verification
Cooperation with Working Group of Effects
Contents
EMEP/MSC-E TFHM, May 14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia
EMEP domain
Extension of EMEP domain
EMEP domain
135
11 111
Kyrgyzstan
Kazakhstan
Uzbekistan
Turkmenistan Tajikistan
EMEP/MSC-E TFHM, May 14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia
Extension of EMEP domain
Extended EMEP domain
Information for the extended domain:
For 2005 - Pb
For 2006 and on - Pb, Cd and Hg
135
11 111 159
Extension of EMEP domain in order to include territories of Central Asian countries
Kyrgyzstan
Kazakhstan
Uzbekistan
Turkmenistan Tajikistan
EMEP/MSC-E TFHM, May 14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia
Requirements for emission reporting:
- Total emission data from a country
- Gridded emissions with 50-km resolution
- Sector emission data
- Information on large point sources
Emission data
EMEP/MSC-E TFHM, May 14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia
“Guidelines for estimating and reporting emissions” (ECE/EB.AIR/GE.1/2007/15)
“EMEP/CORINAIR Emission Inventory Guidebook”
Completeness of heavy metals emission data (totals for countries) for Pb, Cd and Hg in EECCA and SEE
countries (1990 - 2005)
Emission data
0
20
40
60
80
100
Be
laru
s
Re
pu
blic
of M
old
ova
Ru
ssia
n F
ed
era
tion
Cro
atia
Arm
en
ia
Ukr
ain
e
Alb
an
ia
Aze
rba
ijan
Bo
snia
an
d H
erz
eg
ovi
na
Ge
org
ia
Ka
zakh
sta
n
Kyr
gyz
sta
n
Se
rbia
an
d M
on
ten
eg
ro
Ta
jikis
tan
Th
e F
YR
of M
ace
do
nia
Tu
rkm
en
ista
n
Uzb
eki
sta
n
%
EMEP/MSC-E TFHM, May 14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia
Emission data on lead in EECCA and SEE countries for 2005
Region Data sourceAdditional assumptions
Armenia, Belarus, Croatia, Republic of Moldova, Russia (European part), Ukraine
Official data
Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, Russia (Eastern part)
Expert estimates (GEIA-1990)
Reduction rate from 1990 to 2005 as in Russia
Other EECCA and SEE countries
Expert estimates (TNO)
Interpolation between 2000 and 2010.
Emission data
EMEP/MSC-E TFHM, May 14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia
0 200 400 600 800
Armenia Republic of Moldova
GeorgiaCroatia
Azerbaijan Albania
KyrgyzstanTurkmenistan
Belarus Bosnia and HerzegovinaThe FYR of Macedonia
TajikistanSerbia and Montenegro
UzbekistanUkraineRussia
KazakhstanKazakhstan (2)
Total emissions, t/y
Emissions of lead in 2005
Kazakhstan: – data for 2002-2006 are available
Emission data
kg/km2/y
EMEP/MSC-E TFHM, May 14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia
EECCA and SEE countries Source of data
Belarus, Croatia, Republic of Moldova, Russia (European part), Ukraine
Official reporting
Albania, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Bosnia Herzegovina, Georgia, Kazakhstan, The FYR Macedonia, Serbia and Montenegro
Expert estimates (TNO); Hg – Pacyna et al, 2000 (global data)
Emission data for cadmium and mercury in EECCA and SEE countries for 2005
(over “old” EMEP domain)
Emission data
EMEP/MSC-E TFHM, May 14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia
Extension of EMEP domain
Extended EMEP domain
135
11 111 159
Extension of EMEP domain in order to include territories of Central Asian countries
Kyrgyzstan
Kazakhstan
Uzbekistan
Turkmenistan Tajikistan
EMEP/MSC-E TFHM, May 14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia
Expert estimates (TNO); Hg – Pacyna et al, 2000 (global data)
Albania, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Bosnia Herzegovina, Georgia, Kazakhstan, The FYR Macedonia, Serbia and Montenegro
Official reportingBelarus, Croatia, Republic of Moldova, Russia (European part), Ukraine
Source of dataEECCA and SEE countries
Emission data for cadmium and mercury in EECCA and SEE countries for 2005
(over “old” EMEP domain)
Emission data
EMEP/MSC-E TFHM, May 14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia
0 5 10 15
Armenia
Albania
Republic of Moldova
Georgia
Belarus
Croatia
Azerbaijan
The FYR of Macedonia
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Serbia and Montenegro
Ukraine
Kazakhstan
Russia
Total emissions, t/y
Emissions of mercury, 2005
Emission data
g/km2/y
EMEP/MSC-E TFHM, May 14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia
0 20 40 60 80
Armenia
Republic of Moldova
Albania
Georgia
Croatia
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Belarus
Azerbaijan
Ukraine
Kazakhstan
Serbia and Montenegro
The FYR of Macedonia
Russia
Total emissions, t/y
Emissions of cadmium, 2005
Emission data
g/km2/y
EMEP/MSC-E TFHM, May 14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia
Wind re-suspension of heavy metals (Pb, 2005)
Anthrop. emissionsWind re-suspension
~ 5.5 kt / y~ 9 kt / y
Data from EECCA and SEE (wind re-suspension, metal concentrations in soils …) are highly appreciated!
Emission data
kg/km2/y
kg/km2/y
EMEP/MSC-E TFHM, May 14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia
Monitoring
Heavy metal monitoring network
EECCA countries
Planned stationsEMEP stations (2006)
SEE countries
DE1
0
5
10
15
20
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
Air
co
nc
., n
g/m
3
NO1
0
1
2
3
4
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
Co
nc
. in
pre
cip
., m
g/l
EMEP/MSC-E TFHM, May 14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia
“EMEP monitoring strategy and measurement programme 2004-2009” (EB.AIR/GE.1/2004/5)
“EMEP manual for sampling and chemical analysis” (http://www.nilu.no/projects/ccc/manual/index.html)
Modelling of heavy metal transboundary pollution (MSCE-HM)
Model output:
• Concentration and deposition fields
• Transboundary transport
• Long-term trends
• Ecosystem-dependent depositions
Detailed description:
Travnikov O. and Ilyin I., 2005. Regional model MSCE-HM of heavy metaltransboundary air pollution in Europe. EMEP/MSC-E Technical report 6/2005
EMEP/MSC-E TFHM, May 14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
22
.04
.05
06
.05
.05
20
.05
.05
03
.06
.05
17
.06
.05
01
.07
.05
15
.07
.05
29
.07
.05
12
.08
.05
26
.08
.05
09
.09
.05
23
.09
.05
07
.10
.05
21
.10
.05
04
.11
.05
18
.11
.05
02
.12
.05
16
.12
.05
Air
co
nc
en
tra
tio
ns
, n
g/m3
Observed
Modelled (anthrop + re-suspension)
Modelled (anthrop.)
Model verification
Comparison with measurement dataCd air concentrations (2005) at station CZ1 (Czech
Republic)
01.09.2005
CZ1
06.11.2005
CZ1
EMEP/MSC-E TFHM, May 14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia
Uncertainty analysis
Model uncertainty ~ 30-40% (Pb, Cd)
Measurement uncertainty ~ 30 - 40 %
Emission data uncertainty ~ 2-3 раза
Model verification
EMEP/MSC-E TFHM, May 14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia
Review of EMEP models (ECE/EB.AIR/GE.1/2006/4)“The HM model …. was appropriate for theoperational modelling of heavy metals at the regional scale”
Air concentrations of lead in 2005 (CAPACT)Model assessment
EMEP/MSC-E TFHM, May 14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia
Depositions of lead in 2005.
Model assessment
EMEP/MSC-E TFHM, May 14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia
Depositions Total emissions Precipitation
Depositions of lead in 2005 (Caucasus)
Model assessment
EMEP/MSC-E TFHM, May 14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia
Model assessment
Depositions Total emissions Precipitation
Depositions of lead in 2005 (Caucasus)
EMEP/MSC-E TFHM, May 14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia
Heavy metal deposition fluxes over EECCA and SEE countries (2005)
Pb0.2 – 2.1 kg/km2/y
Pb (mean value and scattering)
Cd3 – 160 g/km2/y
Hg2 – 30 g/km2/y
Model assessment
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Bo
snia
_H
erz
eg
ovi
na
Ma
ced
on
ia
Se
rbia
_a
nd
_M
on
ten
eg
Cro
atia
Alb
an
ia
Re
pu
blic
_o
f_M
old
ova
Ukr
ain
e
Ge
org
ia
Be
laru
s
Kyr
gyz
sta
n
Arm
en
ia
Aze
rba
ijan
Ta
jikis
tan
Uzb
eki
sta
n
Ka
zakh
sta
n
Ru
ssia
Tu
rkm
en
ista
n
kg/k
m2/y
ea
r
EMEP/MSC-E TFHM, May 14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia
Lead depositions from Kazakhstan sources in 2005
Transboundary transport of lead from Kazakhstan sources in 2005
Depositions of Pb from Kazakhstan sources in 2005 (CAPACT project)
Model assessment
Uzbekistan, 16 t3%
Turkmenistan, 5 t1%
Tajikistan, 3 t1%
Russia, 200 t31%
Kyrgyzstan, 21 t3%
Other regions, 65 t
10%
Outside model
domain, 92 t14%
Kazakhstan, 241 t37%
EMEP/MSC-E TFHM, May 14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia
EMEP countries, 24 t
2%
Wind re-suspension,
290 t29%
Turkmemistan, 7 t1%
Uzbekistan, 42 t4%
Tajikistan, 10 t1%
Russia, 31 t3%
Kyrgyzstan, 7 t1%
Kazakhstan, 241 t24%
Asia and Africa, 362 t
35%
Contribution of transboundary transport to depositions from anthropogenic sources
Contribution of different sources to depositions in Kazakhstan
Transboundary pollution of lead over Central Asian countries
Iran, China, …
Model assessment
To improve these estimates - global-scale modelling
EMEP/MSC-E TFHM, May 14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia
Main tasks:
Evaluate EMEP region pollution by external sources
Link global, regional, and local scales
Evaluate influence of European sources on remote regions
Provide estimates of intercontinental transport and levels of pollution on global scale
EMEP global model
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Rep
ublic
_of_
Mol
dova
Cro
atia
Arm
enia
Geo
rgia
Kyr
gyzs
tan
Alb
ania
Tur
kmen
ista
n
Aze
rbai
jan
Bel
arus
Ukr
aine
Bos
nia_
Her
zego
vina
Taj
ikis
tan
The
_FY
R_o
f_M
aced
onia
Rus
sia
Uzb
ekis
tan
Ser
bia&
Mon
tene
gro
Kaz
akhs
tan
Con
trib
utio
n to
Pb
depo
sitio
n, %
Transboundary transport
National sources
Transboundary transport:Pb30 - 90 %
Cd15 - 95 %
Hg25 - 85 %
Contributions of transboundary transport and national sources to anthropogenic depositions in
EECCA and SEE countries (2005)
Pb
Model assessment
EMEP/MSC-E TFHM, May 14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia
Global sources: 5 – 80%
Contribution to effect-based approach (in cooperation with the Working Group on Effects)
Depositions of lead to coniferous forests in 2005
0
5
10
15
20
25
0.5
- 0
.6
0.7
- 0
.8
0.9
- 1
.0
1.1
- 1
.2
1.3
- 1
.4
1.5
- 1
.6
1.7
- 1
.8
1.9
- 2
.0
2.1
- 2
.2
2.3
- 2
.4
2.5
- 2
.6
2.7
- 2
.8
2.9
- 3
.0
Deposition range, kg/km2/y
Fra
cti
on
co
nif
ero
us
fo
res
ts
are
a, %
Belarus
0
5
10
15
20
25
0.5
- 0
.6
0.7
- 0
.8
0.9
- 1
.0
1.1
- 1
.2
1.3
- 1
.4
1.5
- 1
.6
1.7
- 1
.8
1.9
- 2
.0
2.1
- 2
.2
2.3
- 2
.4
2.5
- 2
.6
2.7
- 2
.8
2.9
- 3
.0
Deposition range, kg/km2/y
Fra
cti
on
of
co
nif
ero
us
fo
res
ts a
rea
, %
Croatia
0
5
10
15
20
25
0.5
- 0
.60
.7 -
0.8
0.9
- 1
.01
.1 -
1.2
1.3
- 1
.41
.5 -
1.6
1.7
- 1
.81
.9 -
2.0
2.1
- 2
.22
.3 -
2.4
2.5
- 2
.6
2.7
- 2
.82
.9 -
3.0
Deposition range, kg/km2/y
Fra
cti
on
of
co
nif
ero
us
fo
res
ts a
rea
, %
Kyrgyzstan
EMEP/MSC-E TFHM, May 14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia
Depositions of lead to crop lands in 2005
Contribution to effect-based approach
0
10
20
30
40
< 0
.1
0.2
- 0
.3
0.4
- 0
.5
0.6
- 0
.7
0.8
- 0
.9
1.0
- 1
.1
1.2
- 1
.3
1.4
- 1
.5
1.6
- 1
.7
1.8
- 1
.9
Deposition range, kg/km2/y
Fra
cti
on
of
cro
pla
nd
are
a, % Armenia
0
10
20
30
40
< 0
.1
0.2
- 0
.3
0.4
- 0
.5
0.6
- 0
.7
0.8
- 0
.9
1.0
- 1
.1
1.2
- 1
.3
1.4
- 1
.5
1.6
- 1
.7
1.8
- 1
.9
Deposition range, kg/km2/y
Fra
cti
on
of
cro
pla
nd
are
a, % Croatia
0
10
20
30
40
< 0
.1
0.2
- 0
.3
0.4
- 0
.5
0.6
- 0
.7
0.8
- 0
.9
1.0
- 1
.1
1.2
- 1
.3
1.4
- 1
.5
1.6
- 1
.7
1.8
- 1
.9
Deposition range, kg/km2/y
Fra
cti
on
of
cro
pla
nd
are
a, % Kyrgyzstan
EMEP/MSC-E TFHM, May 14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia
Country-specific reports
www.msceast.org
EMEP/MSC-E TFHM, May 14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia
Detailed country-specific information
Emissions
Air concentrations
Deposition flux
EMEP/MSC-E TFHM, May 14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia
Country’s emissions
Contribution of external sources
Belarus
Depositions from a country
Depositions to a country
Detailed country-specific information
EMEP/MSC-E TFHM, May 14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia
Hietajarvi - FI92
Vuoskojarvi - FI95
Uto - FI9
Pesosjarvi - FI94
Virolahti II - FI17
Kotinen - FI93
Hailuoto - FI53
Pallas - FI96
Matorova - FI36
High Muffles - GB14
B anchory - GB91
East Ruston - GB 90
Schmucke - DE8
Deuselbach - DE4
Schauins land - DE3
B rotjacklriegel - DE5
Langenbrugge - DE2
Neuglobsow - DE7Zingst - DE9
Westrland - DE1
Spitsbergen, Zeppelinfjell - NO42
Svanvik - NO47Karasjok - NO55
Overbygd - NO92
Karvath - NO39Valdalen - NO93
Osen - NO41Hurdal - NO56
Ualand - NO95Birkenes - NO1Moscath - NO94
Lista - NO99
De Zilk - NL91
Kollumerwaard - NL9
Starina - SK6
Stara Lesna - SK4
Liesek - SK5
C hopok - SK2
Topolniky - SK7
Aspvreten - SE12
Gardsjon - SE97Rorvik - SE2
Vavihill - SE11
Arup - SE51
Bredkalen - SE5
Porspoder - FR90
Keldsnor - DK5
Anholt - DK8
Tange - DK3
Ulborg - DK31
Pedersker - DK20
Campisabalos - ES9
Niembro - ES8
St.Koloman - AT4
Illmitz - AT2
Vorhegg - AT5
Leba - PL4
Transboundary pollution by HMs and
POPs
CONVENTION ON LONG-RANGE TRANSBOUNDARY AIR POLLUTION
EMEP Cooperative Programme for Monitoring and Evaluation of the Long-range Transmission of Air Pollutants in Europe
Meteorological Synthesizing Centre-East
Detailed country-specific information
EMEP/MSC-E TFHM, May 14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia
Conclusions
Territories of the Central Asian countries (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan ) were entirely included into the EMEP domain
Emission data were officially reported by 6 EECCA and SEE countries. For other countries emission expert estimates were applied
Wind re-suspension can significantly contribute to heavy metal pollution levels in EECCA and SEE countries, especially in Central Asia. Collaboration of these countries with EMEP in the field of wind re-suspension evaluation is highly appreciated.
The work on establishment of several monitoring stations in EECCA and SEE countries is carried out under supervision of EMEP/CCC.
EMEP/MSC-E TFHM, May 14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia
While monitoring network is scarce, measurement - modelling approach is used within EMEP.
Uncertainties of the emission data (a factor of 2-3) are much larger than those for model results and monitoring data (30 - 40%). In order to reduce uncertainties of pollution levels much attention should be paid by countries to quality of their national emission data
In EECCA and SEE countries the contribution of transboundary transport to heavy metal depositions from anthropogenic sources ranges from 15 to 95%. The accuracy of these values can be improved by means of global-scale modelling.
Detailed country-specific information for each country for 2006 will be available through the Internet (www.msceast.org). A hard copy of the country-specific reports can be prepared by request.
Conclusions (cont.)
EMEP/MSC-E TFHM, May 14-16, 2008, Yerevan, Armenia