Post on 15-Jan-2016
EPA Global Change Research Program, ORD/NCEA
U.S. Environmental Protection AgencyOffice of Research and Development
Joel D. Scheraga & Jeffrey B. Frithsen
Presentation to ReVA-MAIA Conference 2003 14 May 2003
Making a difference:Climate impacts assessment and advances in regional resource management
2EPA Global Change Research Program, ORD/NCEA
Climate change poses risks and opportunities to a variety of systems and resources.
Scenario-based assessments are improving understanding of the range of potential impacts, and the associated uncertainties
Climate impacts are assessed relative to other stressors
Society has the ability to anticipate and prepare for change through adaptation.
Policy-focused assessments can provide timely and useful information to
decision makers about potential impacts and adaptation strategies.
But: Advances need to be made to learn how to: better integrate assessment findings into resource management decisions
effectively implement coping strategies
Key Messages
Health ImpactsWeather-related MortalityInfectious DiseasesAir Quality-Respiratory Illnesses
Agriculture ImpactsCrop yieldsIrrigation demands
Water Resource ImpactsChanges in water supplyWater qualityIncreased competition for water
Impacts on Coastal AreasErosion of beachesInundate coastal landsCosts to defend coastal communities
Forest ImpactsChange in forest compositionShift geographic range of forestsForest Health and Productivity
Species and Natural AreasShift in ecological zonesLoss of habitat and speciesSpread of invasive species
Climate Change: Potential Risks and Opportunities
Climate Changes
Sea Level Rise
Temperature
Precipitation
4EPA Global Change Research Program, ORD/NCEA
• Policy-focused assessments provide timely and useful information to decision makers and resource managers:
• about potential consequences of climate change
• about possible (human) adaptation strategies
• Policy assessments: Analytic, multidisciplinary activity
• Engages both analysts and end-users• issues, questions and outcomes of greatest concern are elicited from stakeholders
• Assessments can’t wait for “perfect” science• Example: Design & construction of expensive new sewers that account for risks
of “combined sewer overflow” and effects of climate change on precipitation
• An informed decision is better than uninformed decision
• Making no decision is equivalent to a decision
Policy-Focused Assessments
5EPA Global Change Research Program, ORD/NCEA
EPA-Regional Assessment Activities
Mid-AtlanticPennsylvania State
University
Great LakesUniversity of Michigan
Human HealthJohns Hopkins
UniversityGulf Coast
Southern University
6EPA Global Change Research Program, ORD/NCEA
Mid-Atlantic Regional Assessment (MARA) IdentifiedSystems and Resources Sensitive to Climate Change
7EPA Global Change Research Program, ORD/NCEA
• Improve watershed management to reduce flood and drought damages
and protect water quality
• Remove incentives for practices that place people, investments and
ecosystems in “harms way”
• Improve water pricing to increase efficient water use
• Foster continued adaptation in agriculture, especially for precision
agriculture and biotechnology
• Monitor for higher-risk climate-related disease vectors
Why haven’t these win-win actions been implemented?
MARA Identified Adaptation Options
8EPA Global Change Research Program, ORD/NCEA
• Adaptation comes at a cost.
• Strategies must be tailored to specific places.
• Strategies must be tailored to different demographic groups.
• Effects of climate change must be considered relative to other stressors and factors of concern.
• The systemic nature of climate impacts complicates the development of adaptation policy.
• Maladaptation can result in negative effects that are as serious as the climate-induced effects.
(Source: Joel D. Scheraga & Anne E. Grambsch, “Risks, Opportunities, and Adaptation to Climate Change,” Climate Research, Vol. 11, No. 1, 1998, 85-95)
Barriers to Implementation
9EPA Global Change Research Program, ORD/NCEA
1 Elicit information needs from decision makers (“Know thy endpoint”)
2 Evaluate effectiveness of alternative adaptation strategies (a priori)
3 Characterize uncertainties – and explain implications for outcomes of concern to decision makers
4 Develop decision support tools
5 Conduct “value of information” exercises
6 Communicate complex assessment findings
How to Improve Implementation
10EPA Global Change Research Program, ORD/NCEA
Advances need to be made in:
• Stakeholder identification: Identification of all interested constituencies (stakeholders) at outset of assessment
New stakeholders often identified during course of an assessment
• Risk perceptions: Understanding stakeholder perceptions What are their perceptions? Are perceptions scientifically sound? How are perceptions formed?
• Issue identification: Ascertaining issues of concern to stakeholders One approach: Initial workshops and subsequent consultations permit:
researchers to share best-available scientific information stakeholders to articulate their questions & concerns
1. Eliciting Information Needs
11EPA Global Change Research Program, ORD/NCEA
Example: Great Lakes Region Assessment
Great Lakes Water Levels (March 2001)• Focus on shipping, recreational boating, safety, infrastructure
• Lake Ecology (June 2001)• Focus on Productivity and fishing
• Agriculture (March 2002)• Focus on farming, insurance, adaptation
• Terrestrial Ecology (June 2002)• Focus on forests, wildlife, and timber industry
• Recreation (October 2002)• Focus will be on winter recreation and economy
12EPA Global Change Research Program, ORD/NCEA
• Can’t be cavalier about effectiveness of adaptive strategies
• Critical to assess factors affecting effectiveness of particular strategies
• Adaptive responses vary in effectiveness, as demonstrated by current efforts to cope with climate variability
• Effectiveness of adaptation strategies may vary from place to place
• Effects of adaptation strategies may vary across demographic groups
• Effects of adaptation strategies may be affected by other stresses
• Anticipate unintended consequences
2. Evaluating Alternative Adaptation Strategies
13EPA Global Change Research Program, ORD/NCEA
• Health Sector Assessment insight #1: Heat stress kills.
• Assessment insight #2: Heat waves are projected to increase in
severity and frequency
Assessment insight #3: Elderly, very young, and infirm are the most
vulnerable
Problem: People die of heat stress even under current conditions These are preventable deaths Example: 600+ people (mostly elderly) died in Chicago in 1995
Why?
Subsequent analysis: (1) Fear of crime; (2) Inability to pay for air conditioning Pilot implementation: Heat/Health Weather-Watch Warning System implemented in Philadelphia augmented by “buddy system” for elderly.
Example: Adapting to Heat Stress
14EPA Global Change Research Program, ORD/NCEA
• Many resource management decisions do not require predictions of
future changes
• Useful information from: scenarios “What if?” or “If… then…” analyses Historic analogs
• Regardless of approach, need to improve methods for: quantifying uncertainties displaying uncertainties characterizing implications for resource management decisions
• Also, resource managers need better tools to facilitate decision making under uncertainty
Characterizing Uncertainties
Example: Regional 50% Probability Estimates of Sea Level Rise in 2100 and 2200
Portland, ME19 43
New York, NY22 48
Seattle, WA19 42
San Francisco, CA15 36
Los Angeles13 32
Charleston, SC25 53
Grand Isle, LA55 112
Miami Beach, FL20 44
Source: U.S. EPA (1995).
Estimates are in inches.
16EPA Global Change Research Program, ORD/NCEA
Resource managers needs tools to help:
depict potential impacts
place effects of climate change in context of other stresses
display implications & tradeoffs of alternative management decisions
for outcomes of concern
for criteria of concern
facilitate decision making under uncertainty
Developing Decision Support Tools
17EPA Global Change Research Program, ORD/NCEA
Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS)
• 1993: HPS outbreak in SW with high death rate (>50%)
• Hypothesis: outbreak due to environmental conditions and increased rodent populations caused by unusual weather associated with 1991-92 ENSO
• Results of EPA-sponsored study: high-risk areas for HPS can be predicted over 6 months in advance requires satellite generated risk maps of climate-dependent land cover.
• Risk maps: developed in partnership with CDC and the Indian Health Service already being implemented for disease prevention in the southwest by the U.S. Department of
Health and Human Services
Example: Risk Maps to Guide Public Health Interventions
19EPA Global Change Research Program, ORD/NCEA
Ongoing provision of useful information in timely fashion requires prioritization of knowledge gaps
research funds are scarce
ensure timely provision of useful information to resource managers
“Value of Information” (VOI) calculations are one approach
VOI depends on: changing stakeholder needs and values
timeliness and relevance of information
new stakeholder questions
VOI exercise needs to be part of assessment process
“Value of Information” Exercises
20EPA Global Change Research Program, ORD/NCEA
The “most important information and research needs”:
frequency, timing and intensity of average and extreme weather
effects of average & extreme weather on: agriculture forests fresh water quantity and quality coastal zones ecosystems human health
benefits and costs of alternative adaptation options
improved methods for evaluating how proposed shifts in policy
might affect vulnerability to climate variability and change.
Next step: Further prioritization needed through VOI exercise
Example: High Priority MARA Information Gaps
21EPA Global Change Research Program, ORD/NCEA
• Complex issues
• Many uncertainties• potential consequences
• adaptation strategies
• Lack of salience Lag in impacts Impacts are diffuse Need to make climate change “real” for stakeholders
• Powerless?
Challenges in Communicating Assessment Findings
ICE
PEI
ICE
Example: Making Climate Change “Real” for Commercial Shippers - Ice in the Gulf of St. Lawrence
1987:Sea ice reduces wave action and amount of shore erosion.
Source: Environment Canada
PEI
CLOUDICE
CLOUD
ICE
March 25, 1987 7
March 26, 1999
1999: Little sea ice is present. (Most white areas are clouds.)
Shore exposed to wave action of winter storms.
23EPA Global Change Research Program, ORD/NCEA
I
Example: Making Climate Change “Real”
24EPA Global Change Research Program, ORD/NCEA
• Is anyone effectively changing the way they do business in
anticipation of future climate change? Yes… but only a few…
• Is anyone effectively changing the way they do business given
increased awareness of the sensitivity of outcomes to climate? Yes, a lot Many as “reactive adaptation” Examples:
Canadian ports Coastal zone protection Health monitoring and surveillance Migration corridors for wildlife Maple syrup industries in Canada and U.S. Ski resorts
Making a Difference in Practice?
25EPA Global Change Research Program, ORD/NCEA
Example: Commercial Shippers’ Concernsin Great Lakes Regions
Lake Michigan-Huron•For each inch of draft lost, 1,000 foot ships must offload 270 tons of freight
•Options proposed at Chicago Lake Levels Workshop:
•Lengthen shipping season•Dredging•Shallower-draft ships•Shift to land transport
Research Needs: •Does dredging exacerbate or ameliorate contaminated sediments?•What non-dredge options are there? •What are the consequences of each?
26EPA Global Change Research Program, ORD/NCEA
Summary
Stakeholder drivenquestions
Identify clear endpoints
Conduct assessment andIdentify uncertainties
Identify options for response
Communicate to stakeholders
Was informationReceived?
Evaluate Effectiveness of response
Gap between assessmentAnd response