Post on 30-May-2020
Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
Energy Disruption:
New forces reshaping the downstream energy landscape
Oil Markets, Midstream, Downstream, & Chemicals
Presented to the USAEE Houston Chapter
Houston, Texas
January 11, 2019
Blake Eskew, Vice President, blake.eskew@ihsmarkit.com
Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
MARITIME& TRADE
ENGINEERING & PRODUCT DESIGN
AEROSPACE,DEFENSE &SECURITY
CHEMICAL
DIGITAL & WEB SOLUTIONS
ECONOMICS &COUNTRY RISKENERGY
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& SERVICES
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OPERATIONAL RISK& REGULATORY
COMPLIANCE
Interconnected capabilities
IHS Markit provides leaders
from multiple industries with
the perspective and insights
they need to make the best
choices and stay ahead of
their competition
TECHNOLOGY,MEDIA &TELECOM
2
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Core Segments within Energy & Natural Resources
• Country E&P Terms and
Above-Ground Risk
• Plays and Basins
• Costs and Technology
• Companies and
Transactions
• Global Gas
• Coal
• Power and Renewables
• Regional Gas, Power
and Coal Markets
• Crude Oil Markets
• Midstream Oil and
Natural Gas Liquids
• Refining and Marketing
• Company Strategies and
Performance
UPSTREAMOIL MARKETS, MIDSTREAM,
DOWNSTREAM & CHEMICALPOWER, GAS, COAL
& RENEWABLES
• Long-Term Planning & Scenarios
• Climate Strategy
• Curated Content
• Integrated Energy Events & CERAWeek
• Chemical Week and
Market Daily Service
• Base Chemicals
& Plastics
• Specialty Chemicals
• Costs & Technology
• Company Benchmarking
ENERGY-WIDE PERSPECTIVES
Our core capabilities serve our energy and chemical customers across the value chain through
focused data and insight subscriptions as well as consulting.
3
Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
Recent IHS studies have
focused on short term and
long term disruptive forces in
the downstream industry
Commercial transport – same
influences, different results
IMO bunker fuel sulfur reduction – a
major disruption is coming
Personal mobility – impact of
technology, regulatory, and societal
influences
4
Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved. Source: Smart Vision EQ
Societal changes
Climate policy and air quality
Disruptive technologies
Converging factors are driving disruption in mobility, transport, and energy consumption
5
Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
Mobility services, driverless technology, and electric cars are adding
new dimensions to the century-old personal car use model
6
Selling oil-powered cars to consumers for personal use is challenged by
new mobility services and powertrain options
Human-operated
versus driverless cars
Personally-owned cars
versus mobility services
Gasoline/diesel versus
electric powertrains
Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
Disruptions to the trucking ecosystem–and diesel markets–are coming
7
7
Note: ZEV = zero-emission vehicle.
Source: IHS Markit © 2018 IHS Markit / 1713744
Automation and electrification … the pace of change for cars and trucks
Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
Over the next decade, up to 90% of light duty vehicle (LDV) sales will be
subject to fuel economy standards
Countries with fuel economy initiatives under discussion
Countries with currently enacted fuel economy targets
Beyond 2020, a major increase in the number of markets supporting fuel economy regulations is expected
Source: IHS Markit © 2018 IHS Markit
8
Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
China European Union India United States
Light duty vehicle fuel economy standards are increasing
*US standards for 2025 are not yet finalized.. Sources: National /regional regulatory agencies.© 2018 IHS Markit
Mile
s p
er
ga
llon 2015-17
standard
2020-21
standard
2025*
Fuel economy and emissions standards for LDVs are increasing
across the world
China: 74% increase
from 2015 to 2025
9
Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
Anti-fossil fuel moves are gathering pace, with strong impact on new car sales,
especially diesel
10
Finland: Mulling ban on sales of
diesel cars by 2030
Italy: Rome seeking to ban
diesel cars by 2024
Ireland: Considering 2030 ban on
fossil fuel car sales, reducing
diesel-gasoline tax differential
Belgium: LEZ in Brussels, ban older
diesels from 2018. Reduce fuel tax
differential
Austria: Tentative target of 2025
for ban on fossil fuel cars
Netherlands: Halt sales of new
gasoline and diesel cars by 2030
Norway: Plan to phase out new gasoline and
diesel car sales by 2025 using tax incentives
France: Ban sales of fossil fuel cars by
2040; Paris restricts older diesels, total
ban by 2030. Diesel/gasoline tax
levelling. Scrappage bonus
Spain: Madrid seeks
to ban older diesels
by 2025
Sweden: Seeking bans, beginning with older
diesel cars in town centres from 2020
Germany: Diesel bans begin in 2018
following court ruling. Stuttgart is the
first to enforce ban on older diesels
UK: Seeking ban on fossil fuel car sales
by 2040, London ULEZ; mulling HGV ban
in London. Scotland looking for fossil fuel
car sales ban in 2032
Slovenia: Ban on new fossil
fuel car sales by 2030
Denmark: Copenhagen seeking ban on
diesel cars by 2019
Greece: Athens seeking
ban diesel cars by 2025
Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
Electric vehicle technology is advancing – and China is leading the way
Norway31.2%
China2.3%
Netherlands2.0%
United Kingdom1.7%
France1.7%
Germany1.6%
United States1.2%
Spain0.6%
Denmark0.5%
Italy0.2%
-5
95
195
295
395
495
595
695
795
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
EV uptake ranking: 2017
Source: IHS Markit © 2018 IHS Markit/1713563
EV uptake ranking (EVs as percent of LV sales)
EV
s s
old
(th
ou
san
ds)
Globally, EVs accounted for 1.7% of global new LV
sales and 0.2% of fleet (parc).
11
Electric vehicles address emissions, climate, efficiency, and technology
Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
Driverless technology has the potential to be most disruptive force of change in the
automotive ecosystem
Driverless (autonomous) technology disruptive
potential:
• Improve road safety
• Lower the cost of mobility
• Increase access to mobility
• Liberate people from driving
• Increase sales & use of EVs
• Support stringent restrictions on car use
• Fewer cars needed due to higher utilization
• Less parking needs will impact urban design
• However, costs are high for the suite of
technologies, but declining
Illustrative diagram of driverless technology
© 2018 IHS Markit: 1701760
Note: GPS = global positioning system; V2X = vehicle to vehicle or
vehicle to infrastructure.
Source: IHS Markit
12
Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
0.59 0.580.48
2.17
0.430.33
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
Human driver (ICE) Human driver (ICE) Human driver (EV) Human driver (ICE) Driverless (HEV) Driverless (EV)
Cost of mobility by car for US market
Notes: BEV = battery electric vehicle. Hybrid = gasoline/electric with internal combustion engine. ICE = internal combustion engine.
Source: IHS Markit © 2018 IHS
Do
lla
r p
er
mil
e t
rave
led
,
Co
ns
tan
t 2
01
7 $
US
Driverless technology will benefit from strong cost incentives, if hurdles
can be overcome
13
Personal owned car basis
No cost for driver.
12k mi per year.
Rivalry Scenario
Mobility as a service basis
Includes cost for driver/driverless kit.
65k mi per year.
Rivalry Scenario
Today 20402040 2040
2040
Today
13
Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
Different mobility channels will prefer different vehicles, and affect the
structure of travel demand
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Total LDV,2016
Total LDV,2040
PNAC PAC MaaS
Gasoline Diesel HEV PHEV BEV FCEV Other
RTW regional powertrain sales mix by mobility channel,
Rivalry 2040
Notes: HEV: Hybrid electric vehicles, which include both mild and full conventional hybrids
PHEV: Plug-in electric vehicles
BEV: Pure battery electric vehicles
FCEV: Hydrogren fuel cell vehicles
Other: include both compressed natural gas and LPG vehicles
© 2018 IHS Markit
Sh
are
of
LD
V S
ale
s
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
PAC PNAC MaaS Total LDV
RTW regional total LDV miles traveled by mobility channel:
Rivalry
Billio
n m
iles p
er
year
Source: IHS Markit © 2018 IHS Markit
14
Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
Future sales led by hybrid and EV powertrains, but fleet turnover is slow
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
RTW regional LDV sales by powertrain: Rivalry
Millio
n p
er
year
Note: Other includes CNG and LPG vehicles. PHEV = plug-in hybrid electric vehicle. © 2018 IHS Markit
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
RTW regional LDV on road fleet by powertrain: Rivalry
Millio
n p
er
year
Note: Other includes CNG and LPG vehicles. PHEV = plug-in hybrid electric vehicle. © 2018 IHS Markit
15
Gasoline
Gasoline
Diesel
HEV
PHEV
BEV
Diesel
HEV
PHEV
BEVOtherOther
Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
Demand for trucking growing rapidly, but changes to this ecosystem are coming,
too
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2000 2025
Mil
lio
n t
on
-km
Europe
Japan
China
US
© 2018
IHS Markit
Ton-kilometers: RTT markets, 2000–40
Source: IHS Markit
Certainties
• Trucking remains a central element of the global logistics system
• There is significant scope for diesel engine fuel efficiency
improvements
• The pace of change will be hampered by the inertia of a
conservative and fragmented trucking industry
Uncertainties
• The role of policy and regulation in forcing change
• The disruptive impact of autonomous driving and other
technologies
• The future role for alternative fuel powertrains, which today have
fragmented offerings
Ton-kilometers set to more
than double to 2040
RTT = Reinventing the Truck study that includes these four markets that account
for about 40% of global medium/heavy duty diesel demand
16
16
Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
Driverless trucks have the potential to fundamentally alter the cost
structure of the industry
17
Source: Based on Society of Automotive
Engineers levels of automation (SAE J3016)
Incre
asin
g a
uto
mati
on
No automation
Driver assistance
Partial automation
Conditional automation
High automationIHS Markit self-driving
Full automationIHS Markit driverless
L0
L1
L4
L2
L3
L5
© 2018 IHS Markit
Vehicle capex$71
Taxes$20
Driver$180
Maintenance$26
Fuel$53
Resale value($20)
TCO $330
$-
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
1 2 3 4 5 6
TCO breakdown: Europe MDV Rivalry, 2020
Source: IHS Markit © 2018 IHS MarkitU
S$
2018 t
ho
usan
ds
Note: Assumes six-year vehicle life with 220,000 km driven. For a general application MDV purchased in 2020, all values are net
present values assuming a 6% discount rate.
Autonomous = Level 4 and Level 5
17
Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
Higher HDV fuel efficiency is feasible and many countries are targeting
improvementsDiesel engine example:
• Downsizing from 15L engine to 11L-13L is becoming the norm in
class-8
• Large improvements in turbocharging technology allow for similar
performance at a smaller size
• A 1MPG (6MPG to 7MPG) increase at 100,000 miles/yr = ~
$7.5k/yr fuel savings
> Such savings challenge EV in trucking, at least for the same
light-duty model
• Injection pressures have also increased to 1600/1800 BAR – 2500
BAR in the future
What technologies could contribute to improvements in
diesel fuel economy?
Source: IHS Markit © 2018 IHS Markit
1
2
3
4
5
Trailer aerodynamics
• Side skirts
• Boat Trails
Driveline
• Axle efficiency
• Transmission efficiency
• Integrated transmission
• Downspeeding
• Direct Drive
• Predictive cruise control
Tractor aerodynamics
• Roof deflectors or fairing
• Side fenders
• Aerodynamic mirrors
• Turning vanes
Engine
• Friction reduction
• Auxiliary electrification
• Combustion optimization
• Aftertreatment improvements
• Waste heat recovery
Tires
• Automatic inflation system
• Low-rolling resistance tires
18
Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
Fuel economy standards—not EV penetration—have the biggest
impact on LDV gasoline and diesel demand
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Global LDV gasoline and diesel demand: Rivalry
Source: IHS Markit
Th
ou
san
d b
/d
Notes: This is an illustrative example of how much gasoline EVs displace versus improving fuel economy. "Rivalry without EVs" is calculated by assuming all global electric miles are instead driven by gasoline HEVs. "Rivalry without EVs and constant fuel economy" assumes that all
global LDV miles are traveled by vehicles with a constant 25 miles per gallon (mpg) fuel economy from 2020 to 2040
© 2018 IHS Markit
19
Decrease due to
higher fuel economy
Oil demand assuming constant fuel
economy and no EVs
Rivalry demand
with no EVs
Rivalry
Decrease due to Evs
Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
Efficiency gains and fuel substitution curb long-term commercial
trucking diesel demand in our base (Rivalry) scenario
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040
Diesel (Rivalry) Gasoline (Rivalry)
Diesel and gasoline demand from MHCV—RTT markets
Source: IHS Markit © 2018 IHS Markit
Dem
an
d (
tho
usan
d b
/d)
20
Peak in 2025
(+4% versus 2018)
(4)% versus peak
(8)% versus 2018
20
Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
As these efficiency gains and substitution slow demand growth, global
refined products demand peaks in the 2030s
1.3
0.4
0.9
1.2
0.7
0.4
0.1
-0.1
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 2025-2030 2030-2035 2035-2040
Europe Africa Latin_America CIS Middle_East OECD_Asia
China India Rest_of_Asia North America TOTAL
World demand growth by region: Total refined products
© 2018 IHS Markit
Mill
ion
ba
rre
ls p
er
da
y
Source: IHS Markit
21
Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
IMO 2020 bunker specification change—the biggest planned
disruption to oil markets ever?
The International Maritime Organization (IMO) agreed in October 2016 to reduce bunker fuel sulfur
from 3.5% to 0.5% as of January 2020.
22
The impact will
be disruptive
and uncertain,
because:
1 The simultaneous global nature of the change
With less than one year until the change, refinery
investment and ship scrubber installation appears
insufficient
Legislative clarity on the change is still required as the
largest area of uncertainty is compliance
IHS Markit still expects the most likely outcome to be
an excess of residue in 2020 having to find a home
in power generation
2
3
4
• IHS has studied impacts since 2009, with urgency accelerating since the 2016 decision
• Most oil market observers and the futures markets now anticipate significant disruption
• Key questions are how much disruption and how long will it last?
Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
Global shipping will need to comply with the new fuel quality rules
23
Switch to
compliant
low-sulfur
bunker fuel
Install exhaust gas
cleaning systems,
aka scrubbers
Switch to
liquefied
natural gas
Non-compliance,
sanctioned or otherwise
(Not a true pathway)
Four
pathways
Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
At less than 12 months from one of the most disruptive changes for
refining and shipping, a lot of work still needs to be doneFuel
availability study
Jul-2016
MEPC 70 Oct-2016
PPR 4 Jan-2017
MEPC 71 Jul-2017
PPR 5 Jan-2018
MEPC 72 Apr-2018
MEPC 73 Oct-2018
PPR 6 Jan-2019
MEPC 74 Spring 2019
0.50% sulfur cap
1 Jan 2020
PPR
Intersessional
meeting
Jul-2018
ISO quality
guidance
Decision to impose a 0.50
wt% sulphur cap on
marine bunkers
from 1 January 2020
High sulphur fuel
oil carriage ban
proposed
High sulphur fuel oil
carriage ban agreed
CO2 emissions reduction
targets agreed for 2030
and 2050
Proposed ship
implementation plan
but no consensus on
guidance to PSC about
enforcement and
nonavailability
Final approval of the high
sulphur fuel oil carriage
ban
No new specification
New fuels within ISO8217
Guidance about type of fuel
blends expected from 2020
High sulphur fuel oil
carriage ban effective
1 March 2020
Key
MEPC: Marine Environmental Protection Committee
PPR: Subcommittee for Pollution Prevention & Response
ISO: International Standards Organisation
Today
Carriage
ban
24
Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
Interest in onboard scrubbing accelerated strongly in 2018
• IHS Markit records accelerating uptake of exhaust gas
cleaning systems with 1,750 vessels with scrubbers fitted or
on order as of year-end 2018, an increase of ~1,300 ships
compared to March 2018
• In summer and autumn 2018, several large shipping
companies announced significant scrubber fitting programs,
and some carriers that were initially skeptical have since
changed their tone
• Regardless, we still expect scrubber levels to be significantly
below the expectation when the IMO change timing was set
• We expect most scrubbers to be open loop - often hybrid-
ready - with only a minority of scrubbers closed loop or hybrid
from the onset
• Time-charter premiums have been quoted for tankers and dry
bulk vessels fitted with scrubbers, as charterers can
compensate these through bunker fuel savings
• The new long-term shipping GHG emission reductions targets
(50% by 2050) further confuse the decision for the shipping
industry
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 May-18 Sep-18 Jan-19 May-19 Sep-19 Jan-20
Fitted by 1 Jan 2020
Vessels with scrubbers on order
Vessels fitted or on order
Vessels with exhaust gas cleaning installed or on order
Source: IHS Markit © 2018 IHS Markit
co
un
t o
f sh
ips
25
6 December 2018
1,752
On order
Fitted
25
Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.26
Scrubber installations are focused on the highest fuel-consuming segments
• Over 80% of the fleet fitted/to be fitted with scrubbers comes from
the high consuming sectors, Tanker (26%), Bulk Carrier (33%),
Cruise ships (9%) and Container Ships (14%)
> Aside from cruise ships, the other three sectors have seen a
large rush to install scrubbers
• The confirmed scrubber population of new builds is around 6% of
the total order book, however it is assume that this percentage will
rise as more installations are confirmed in due course
> Some major shipyards are offering retrofits to their in-house
designs, which can be undertaken before the ship’s scheduled
completion
Confirmed vessels fitted with scrubbers — December 2018
FittedIn Service
to be Fitted
Under
Construction
to be Fitted
No. of
Ships414 992 346
© 2018 IHS MarkitSource: IHS Markit
26
Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
With ‘IMO 2020’ deadline fast approaching, action is accelerating
Crude slate optimization
Optimize capacity of existing processing units
Change bunker fuel blending recipe
High sulfur fuel carriage ban
Refiners are focused on low-capital
actions
Clarity is emerging on enforcement
Enhanced port state enforcement powers
Harmonizing fuel non-availability reporting
Implementing fuel oil data system
Possible loss of insurance cover
Limited investment in conversion capacity under
way – XOM Antwerp, Shell Pernis, a few more
27
Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
IMO bunker fuel rules will create a spike in marine gasoil (diesel) demand…real
issue for oil markets is disposal of heavy residual
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Global bunker fuel demand
Source: IHS Markit © 2018 IHS Markit
Th
ou
sa
nd
b/d
Gasoil demand increases by 1
million b/d or more
1. Scrubber uptake
2. More hybrid fuels
3. Gasoil market share falls to 20% by 2030
High Sulfur Residual Bunker
Gasoil Bunker
VLSFO Bunker
LNG Bunker
1. Hybrid fuels
2. Very Low Sulfur blends
28
Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Oct 18 Jan 19 Apr 19 Jul 19 Oct 19 Jan 20 Apr 20 Jul 20 Oct 20
Futures - 3.5% FO FOB Rotterdam Futures - European LS Gasoil (ICE)
Product Future Crackspreads
Source: CMEGroup, IHS Markit
Notes: numbers labeled as Futures are intended as being an indicative snapshot of current futures prices
Product crackspreads are relative to Brent Crude Oil; futures crackspreads relative to Brent futures (ICE)
Timestamp: October 30 2018
© 2018 IHS D
oll
ar
pe
r B
arr
el
IHS Outlook
IHS Outlook
Oil product futures markets are continuing to demonstrate an increasingly
significant ‘IMO 2020’ impact but less than the IHS Markit outlook
29
Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
The “IMO Scramble”: compliance and scrubber uptake are the
two key uncertainties
• High Sulfur Fuel Oil (HSFO) will be sharply discounted to penetrate power
markets
• New 0.5% sulfur bunker will approach marine diesel price
• Increased demand will drive up light product prices (gasoline and
diesel/kerosene)
• Scrubbers eventually take care of HSFO surplus – but it will take time
• Recent study used Monte Carlo and scenario analysis to assess range of
uncertainty – significant disruption is the most likely outcome
30
30
Confidential. © 2018 IHS MarkitTM. All Rights Reserved.
Energy disruption will come
from many directions
Technology, mobility and IMO will
have short and long term impacts
Technology and innovation changing
product demand patterns
Policy and societal forces are
reshaping markets
31
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For more information on the Mobility and Energy Futures and Reinventing the Truck studies, please contact:
Kate Hardin, Vice President, IHS Markit Energy and Mobility: kate.hardin@ihsmarkit.com
For more information on the Navigating Choppy Waters study, please contact:
Spencer Welch, Executive Director, IHS Markit Oil Midstream & Downstream: spencer.welch@ihsmarkit.com