Emerging Technologies, Emerging Technologies, Regional Scorecards: e-Business in AsiaRegional Scorecards: e-Business in Asia

Dr. Madanmohan RaoDr. Madanmohan RaoConsultant, 4Cplus; Editor, INOMYConsultant, 4Cplus; Editor, INOMY

Bangalore, INDIABangalore, INDIAmadan@inomy.commadan@inomy.com, , madan@4Cplus.commadan@4Cplus.com

The Eight Cs of the The Eight Cs of the Digital EconomyDigital Economy

ConnectivityConnectivity ContentContent CommunityCommunity CommerceCommerce CapacityCapacity CultureCulture CooperationCooperation CapitalCapital

Generations of Internet TechnologiesGenerations of Internet Technologies

Generation I: Mainframe (one machine, many Generation I: Mainframe (one machine, many users)users)

Generation II: Workstations, PCs (one machine, Generation II: Workstations, PCs (one machine, one user)one user)

Generation III: Consumer electronics, embedded Generation III: Consumer electronics, embedded devices (many machines, one user)devices (many machines, one user)

Consumer DevicesConsumer Devices

PDAs, laptops, cellphones, headsets, cordless PDAs, laptops, cellphones, headsets, cordless phones, MP3 players, joysticks, fingerprint phones, MP3 players, joysticks, fingerprint scanners, medical instruments, point of sale scanners, medical instruments, point of sale (POS) scanners, DVDs, pen computers, wireless (POS) scanners, DVDs, pen computers, wireless modems, digital still cameras, Webcams, e-modems, digital still cameras, Webcams, e-books, TV set-top boxes, fridges, microwave books, TV set-top boxes, fridges, microwave ovens….ovens….

ApplicationsApplications Sharing of home videos via the Net Sharing of home videos via the Net Monitoring alarm systems in officesMonitoring alarm systems in offices Instrumentation for industrial applicationsInstrumentation for industrial applications Monitoring of goods in supply chainsMonitoring of goods in supply chains Inventory updates for mobile sales forcesInventory updates for mobile sales forces Support information for field techniciansSupport information for field technicians Wireless Internet access in hotel roomsWireless Internet access in hotel rooms Headsets for museum visitorsHeadsets for museum visitors Automated airport check-in by travelers (not any more!!)Automated airport check-in by travelers (not any more!!)

Embedded devicesEmbedded devices

On-board power-sensitive design techniquesOn-board power-sensitive design techniques Space optimizationSpace optimization Programmable logic devicesProgrammable logic devices High-resolution displaysHigh-resolution displays System on chip (SoC) circuitry, security chipsSystem on chip (SoC) circuitry, security chips Upstream/downstream migration to ‘soft silicon’ Upstream/downstream migration to ‘soft silicon’

Outlook for AsiaOutlook for Asia

Web-enabled devices, wireless networksWeb-enabled devices, wireless networks IT services, IT-enabled servicesIT services, IT-enabled services ICT research and developmentICT research and development Content + creative industriesContent + creative industries Citizen empowermentCitizen empowerment Access, development challengesAccess, development challenges

Regional Variations in m-ServicesRegional Variations in m-Services

US: e-mail, surfing, news, travel; comfort with US: e-mail, surfing, news, travel; comfort with credit cards; discomfort with location-based credit cards; discomfort with location-based privacy. Professional use.privacy. Professional use.

Japan, Korea: entertainment (downloadable ring Japan, Korea: entertainment (downloadable ring tones), emailtones), email

Europe: banking, email; discomfort with credit Europe: banking, email; discomfort with credit card usagecard usage

Momentum/Inertia factorsMomentum/Inertia factors U.S: familiarity with Internet commerce => less satisfied U.S: familiarity with Internet commerce => less satisfied

with m-interface, more accepting of m-transactionswith m-interface, more accepting of m-transactions Japan: focus on entertainment, less mindful of the Japan: focus on entertainment, less mindful of the

Internet as a point of comparison. i-mode offers a more Internet as a point of comparison. i-mode offers a more satisfying user experience than WAP.satisfying user experience than WAP.

French: satisfied with Minitel, skeptical about WAPFrench: satisfied with Minitel, skeptical about WAP Germany: strong identification with bank brandsGermany: strong identification with bank brands Swedes: more technically savvySwedes: more technically savvy Australia: affluent professional users (due to high Australia: affluent professional users (due to high

handset costs)handset costs)

ChallengesChallenges

StandardsStandards DevicesDevices ContentContent CommerceCommerce Business modelsBusiness models User behaviour (usability, momentum)User behaviour (usability, momentum)

Dimensions of ConvergenceDimensions of Convergence Representation (bits)Representation (bits) Protocols (TCP/IP, Web)Protocols (TCP/IP, Web) Channels (phone, TV)Channels (phone, TV) User devices (TV, PC)User devices (TV, PC) Functionality (PC, cellphone)Functionality (PC, cellphone) Applications (email)Applications (email) User behaviour (messaging, surfing)User behaviour (messaging, surfing) Policy (broadcast, print, telecom)Policy (broadcast, print, telecom) Consumer data (demographics, location, transaction)Consumer data (demographics, location, transaction)

Dimension of divergenceDimension of divergence

Location (car radio, clock radio)Location (car radio, clock radio) Channels (cable TV, satellite TV)Channels (cable TV, satellite TV) User devices (cordless phone, cellphone)User devices (cordless phone, cellphone) Entertainment modes (digital cameras, MP3 players)Entertainment modes (digital cameras, MP3 players) Size/specs (PCs, notebooks)Size/specs (PCs, notebooks) Policy (IT, Internet)Policy (IT, Internet) User behaviour (convenience, price)User behaviour (convenience, price)

Generations of Wireless InternetGenerations of Wireless Internet

1G1G Voice onlyVoice only 197919792G2G GSM/TDMAGSM/TDMA 199219922.5G2.5G GPRS, EDGEGPRS, EDGE 200120013G 3G WCDMA WCDMA 2001, 20022001, 20024G 4G 20102010

The MarketThe Market

Wireless Internet economy: $25 billion by 2005Wireless Internet economy: $25 billion by 2005 Wireless users: 600 million worldwide (Asia: 250 Wireless users: 600 million worldwide (Asia: 250

million)million) Internet user base: 420 millionInternet user base: 420 million

““Asia is beating Europe and North America in pure Asia is beating Europe and North America in pure wireless markets, and will lead in the wireless wireless markets, and will lead in the wireless Internet as well. The 3G world belongs to the Internet as well. The 3G world belongs to the Asian people.”Asian people.”

Emmanuel Sauquet, Nortel NetworksEmmanuel Sauquet, Nortel Networks

VoIPVoIP

Managed networks: corporate classManaged networks: corporate class Public Internet: consumer servicesPublic Internet: consumer services Carrier class: international/national networksCarrier class: international/national networks

Softswitch, gateways, IP PBX, voice+data CRMSoftswitch, gateways, IP PBX, voice+data CRM

Asian Internet: 4 EpisodesAsian Internet: 4 Episodes

1960s – 1980: Computing infrastructure, 1960s – 1980: Computing infrastructure, Keiretsu, Chaebol, IIT/AIT/AIM/NCBKeiretsu, Chaebol, IIT/AIT/AIM/NCB

1980-1995: APNIC, early internetworks1980-1995: APNIC, early internetworks 1995-2000: Commercial Internet growth, 1995-2000: Commercial Internet growth,

deregulationderegulation 2001 onwards: Convergence, divergence2001 onwards: Convergence, divergence

Scorecard 1: U.S.Scorecard 1: U.S.

Core technologiesCore technologies Fortune 500 companies, B2B hubsFortune 500 companies, B2B hubs Venture capital, stock marketsVenture capital, stock markets Technology mediaTechnology media

Scorecard 2: Latin AmericaScorecard 2: Latin America

Only two languages (Spanish, Portuguese)Only two languages (Spanish, Portuguese) U.S. and Spanish playersU.S. and Spanish players Regional trading blocsRegional trading blocs Collective consciousnessCollective consciousness Community access centresCommunity access centres Cultural products (music), sports (football)Cultural products (music), sports (football)

Scorecard 3: EuropeScorecard 3: Europe

Economic integrationEconomic integration Linguistic diversity: challenge, opportunityLinguistic diversity: challenge, opportunity Interactive TVInteractive TV Large markets (Germany, France, UK), Large markets (Germany, France, UK),

sophisticated markets (Scandinavia)sophisticated markets (Scandinavia) BroadbandBroadband IT worker shortagesIT worker shortages

Scorecard 4: Africa & Middle EastScorecard 4: Africa & Middle East

Infrastructure challengesInfrastructure challenges Regional pockets: South Africa; Kenya; Dubai, Regional pockets: South Africa; Kenya; Dubai,

Tunisia, Egypt; IsraelTunisia, Egypt; Israel Common languagesCommon languages Cultural products (music)Cultural products (music) Diaspora populationsDiaspora populations

Scorecard 5: Asia-PacificScorecard 5: Asia-Pacific

Hardware, software powerhouseHardware, software powerhouse Digital divide; regulationsDigital divide; regulations Mobile InternetMobile Internet Global diaspora (“digital glue”)Global diaspora (“digital glue”) Major markets: China, India, Japan, South Major markets: China, India, Japan, South

Korea, AustraliaKorea, Australia VoIP: China, IndiaVoIP: China, India

Asian PowerhousesAsian Powerhouses

Appliances: Taiwan, Japan, South KoreaAppliances: Taiwan, Japan, South Korea Creative content: PhilippinesCreative content: Philippines Networks: Japan, South KoreaNetworks: Japan, South Korea Operators: Japan, South Korea, ChinaOperators: Japan, South Korea, China Services: SingaporeServices: Singapore Software: IndiaSoftware: India Online Tourism: Thailand, NepalOnline Tourism: Thailand, Nepal

The Crystal BallThe Crystal Ball

Bandwidth, satellite, fibreBandwidth, satellite, fibre XMLXML BrandingBranding Digital radioDigital radio Digital divideDigital divide

““The Asia-Pacific region will ramp up Internet-enabled The Asia-Pacific region will ramp up Internet-enabled wireless phones before the rest of the world and is wireless phones before the rest of the world and is poised to become the world's mobile powerhouse. By poised to become the world's mobile powerhouse. By 2010, more than 50 percent of all mobile-phone users in 2010, more than 50 percent of all mobile-phone users in the world will be in the Asia-Pacific region, up from 35 the world will be in the Asia-Pacific region, up from 35 percent in 2000.”percent in 2000.”

ITUITU

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