Post on 22-Mar-2020
EMEA FUTURE OF ENERGY SUMMIT
Michael Liebreich
Chairman of the Advisory Board
Twitter: @mliebreich
London
11 October 2016
1Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit
The world must
achieve greenhouse
gas neutrality some
time in the second half
of the century
Paris Agreement
December 2015
Picture: UNFCCC
PARIS – LONG TERM VISION
2Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit
PARIS – HIGH HOPES
The Paris Agreement is a monumental
triumph for people and our planet.
Ban Ki Moon, former UN SG
This is a turning point. This gives us the best
possible shot to save the one planet we got.
Barack Obama, US President
Today's agreement signals nothing less
than a renaissance for humankind.
Mr. Mogens Lykketoft, President, UN General Assembly
Together we have opened the door to a
sustainable and climate-safe future for all.
Christiana Figueres, former head, UNFCCC
It is a sign of hope. It can have a
positive influence on the living
conditions of billions of people.
Angela Merkel, Chancellor of Germany
The Paris Agreement has been an
unprecedented historic success.
Miguel Arias Cañete, European Commissioner for
Climate Action and Energy
3Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit
Source: UNFCCC, UNEP, Climate Action Tracker, Bloomberg New Energy Finance
GLOBAL GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS(GTCO2)
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Historical emissions
Pre-COP21 pledges
4Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit
Source: UNFCCC, UNEP, Climate Action Tracker, Bloomberg New Energy Finance
GLOBAL GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS(GTCO2)
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Historical emissions
INDC trajectory
Pre-COP21 pledges
5Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit
Source: UNFCCC, UNEP, Climate Action Tracker, Bloomberg New Energy Finance
GLOBAL GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS(GTCO2)
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Historical emissions 2 C trajectory
INDC trajectory
Pre-COP21 pledges
6Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
GLOBAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY (MTOE)
10,000
5,000
1,000
0
Renewable energy
Natural gas
OilCoal
Nuclear
7Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit
Note: BNEF adjusted IEA NPS forecast using its own electricity generation and EV demand forecast. Renewables total includes bioenergy and hydro. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA
GLOBAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY, 1975 (MTOE)
10,000
5,000
1,000
1975
Renewable energy
Natural gas
OilCoal
Nuclear
8Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit
Note: BNEF adjusted IEA NPS forecast using its own electricity generation and EV demand forecast. Renewables total includes bioenergy and hydro. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA
GLOBAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY, 1980 (MTOE)
10,000
5,000
1,000
1980
Renewable energy
Natural gas
OilCoal
Nuclear
9Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit
Note: BNEF adjusted IEA NPS forecast using its own electricity generation and EV demand forecast. Renewables total includes bioenergy and hydro. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA
GLOBAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY, 1985 (MTOE)
10,000
5,000
1,000
1985
Renewable energy
Natural gas
OilCoal
Nuclear
10Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit
Note: BNEF adjusted IEA NPS forecast using its own electricity generation and EV demand forecast. Renewables total includes bioenergy and hydro. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA
GLOBAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY, 1990 (MTOE)
10,000
5,000
1,000
1990
Renewable energy
Natural gas
OilCoal
Nuclear
11Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit
Note: BNEF adjusted IEA NPS forecast using its own electricity generation and EV demand forecast. Renewables total includes bioenergy and hydro. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA
GLOBAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY, 1995 (MTOE)
10,000
5,000
1,000
1995
Renewable energy
Natural gas
OilCoal
Nuclear
12Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit
Note: BNEF adjusted IEA NPS forecast using its own electricity generation and EV demand forecast. Renewables total includes bioenergy and hydro. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA
GLOBAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY, 2000 (MTOE)
10,000
5,000
1,000
2000
Renewable energy
Natural gas
OilCoal
Nuclear
13Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit
Note: BNEF adjusted IEA NPS forecast using its own electricity generation and EV demand forecast. Renewables total includes bioenergy and hydro. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA
GLOBAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY, 2005 (MTOE)
10,000
5,000
1,000
2005
Renewable energy
Natural gas
OilCoal
Nuclear
14Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit
Note: BNEF adjusted IEA NPS forecast using its own electricity generation and EV demand forecast. Renewables total includes bioenergy and hydro. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA
GLOBAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY, 2010 (MTOE)
10,000
5,000
1,000
2010
Renewable energy
Natural gas
OilCoal
Nuclear
15Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit
Note: BNEF adjusted IEA NPS forecast using its own electricity generation and EV demand forecast. Renewables total includes bioenergy and hydro. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA
GLOBAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY, 2015 (MTOE)
10,000
5,000
1,000
2015
Renewable energy
Natural gas
OilCoal
Nuclear
16Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit
Note: BNEF adjusted IEA NPS forecast using its own electricity generation and EV demand forecast. Renewables total includes bioenergy and hydro. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA
GLOBAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY (MTOE)
10,000
5,000
1,000
2015
Renewable energy
Natural gas
OilCoal
Nuclear
BNEF 2040
17Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit
Note: BNEF adjusted IEA NPS forecast using its own electricity generation and EV demand forecast. Renewables total includes bioenergy and hydro. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA
GLOBAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY (MTOE)
10,000
5,000
1,000
2015
Renewable energy
Natural gas
OilCoal
Nuclear
BNEF 2040
IEA 450ppm
2040
18Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, IEA
GLOBAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY (MTOE)
10,000
5,000
1,000
2015
Renewable energy
Natural gas
OilCoal
Nuclear
BNEF 2040
IEA 450ppm
2040
Illustrative
Paris scenario
before 2100
Note: BNEF adjusted IEA NPS forecast using its own electricity generation and EV demand forecast. Renewables total includes bioenergy and hydro.
Paris illustrative scenario assumes some carbon capture.
19Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit
We need an
energy miracle
Picture: Bloomberg
ENERGY MIRACLE
Bill Gates
February 2016
20Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit
0.1%
0.2%
0.4%
0.8%
1.6%
3.1%
6.3%
12.5%
25.0%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
RENEWABLES SHARE OF GENERATION, 2000–15 (% OF SYSTEM TOTAL)
Note: Y-axes are logarithmic with base 2 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, BP, UNEP
WIND
Four
doublings
SOLAR
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
0.2%
0.4%
0.8%
1.6%
3.1%
6.3%
12.5%
25.0%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Seven
doublings
0.05%
0.03%
0.01%15 years 15 years
21Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit
ONSHORE WINDSOLAR PV
Location:
Bidder:
Signed:
Construction:
Price:
Morocco
Enel Green Power
January 2016
2018
US$ 3.0 c/kWh
Location:
Bidder:
Signed:
Construction:
Price:
Peru
Enel Green Power
February 2016
2017
US$ 4.8 c/kWh
2016 UNSUBSIDISED CLEAN ENERGYWORLD RECORDS
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance; ImagesSiemens; Wikimedia Commons
22Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit
ONSHORE WINDSOLAR PV
Location:
Bidder:
Signed:
Construction:
Price:
Morocco
Enel Green Power
January 2016
2018
US$ 3.0 c/kWh
Location:
Bidder:
Signed:
Construction:
Price:
Coahuila, Mexico
Enel Green Power
March 2016
2018
US$ 3.6 c/kWh
2016 UNSUBSIDISED CLEAN ENERGYWORLD RECORDS
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance; ImagesSiemens; Wikimedia Commons
23Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit
ONSHORE WINDSOLAR PV
Location:
Bidder:
Signed:
Construction:
Price:
Morocco
Enel Green Power
January 2016
2018
US$ 3.0 c/kWh
Location:
Bidder:
Signed:
Construction:
Price:
Dubai
Masdar Consortium
May 2016
2019
US$ 2.99 c/kWh
2016 UNSUBSIDISED CLEAN ENERGYWORLD RECORDS
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance; ImagesSiemens; Wikimedia Commons
24Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit
ONSHORE WINDSOLAR PV
Location:
Bidder:
Signed:
Construction:
Price:
Morocco
Enel Green Power
January 2016
2018
US$ 3.0 c/kWh
Location:
Bidder:
Signed:
Construction:
Price:
Chile
Solarpack Corporation
August 2016
2019
US$ 2.91 c/kWh
2016 UNSUBSIDISED CLEAN ENERGYWORLD RECORDS
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance; ImagesSiemens; Wikimedia Commons
25Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit
WIND AND SOLAR EXPERIENCE CURVES
Note: Prices are in real (2015) USD. ‘Current price’ is $0.4/W
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Maycock
Note: Pricing data has been inflation corrected to 2014. We assume the debt ratio of 70%, cost of debt
(bps to LIBOR) of 175, cost of equity of 8%
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
0.1
1
10
100
1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000
1976
1985
2003
2012
Cumulative capacity (MW)
2016
2008
SOLAR PV MODULE COST ($/W)NORTHERN EUROPE ONSHORE WIND LEVELISED
COST ($/MWH)
Learning rate 24.3%
y = 3,582.42x-0.30
R² = 0.91
16
32
64
128
256
512
1,024
100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000
1985
2025
2016
Learning rate = 19%
1999
2009
WIND COSTS HAVE
FALLEN
50% SINCE 2009
SOLAR COSTS HAVE
FALLEN
>99% SINCE 1976
90% since 2009
26Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit
Note: Averages are capacity-weighted. We calculate the capacity factor with our proprietary Wind Farm Capacity Factor Tool using
real project data and wind resource data provided by 3TIER by Vaisala. We assume P90 value in the capacity factor tool.
Source: Bloomberg New Energy
Finance
GLOBAL (EX. CHINA) ONSHORE WIND CAPACITY FACTOR IMPROVEMENTS, 1997-2015 (%)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020
Germany Denmark UK Spain US Canada
299MW
27Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit
Note: X-axis denotes commissioning date, bubble size denotes project capacity. A project-weighted average was used for projects with multiple turbine
models. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
OFFSHORE TURBINE CAPACITY BY COMMISSIONING DATE, 1995-2025 (MW)
28Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit
CAPACITY FACTOR IMPROVEMENTS
LONGER BLADESLOW-WIND TURBINES
AT HIGH-WIND SITES
SITE-OPTIMISED POWER CURVES HIGHER TOWERS
Source: Siemens, Nordex, GE, Vestas
29Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
PRICE IMPACT OF SWITCH FROM FIT TO AUCTIONS, SELECTED COUNTRIES (NORMALISED)
Solar PV
(unit price normalised to 100 at date of first auction)
Onshore Wind
(unit price normalised to 100 at date of first auction)
: non-tariff price signals
: tariffs
: auctions
KEY
EMEA
Other LatAm
Brazil
India
South Africa
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
+3+2+10-1-2-3
- 30% - 50%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
+3+2+10-1-2-3
- 35% - 60%
30Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit
$62bn
$88bn
$128bn
$175bn
$206bn $207bn
$274bn
$318bn$297bn
$272bn
$316bn$329bn
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes corporate and government R&D, and spending for digital energy and energy storage projects (not reported in quarterly
statistics). Excludes large hydro. Source: Bloomberg Intelligence, Bloomberg New Energy Finance
CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT ROSE, CAPACITY INSTALLATIONS ROSE FASTERGLOBAL CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT VS CAPACITY INSTALLATIONS 2004-15
87GW
20GW
“Spend more,
get more”
“Spend the same,
get more”
147GW
Investment
+431%
Installations
+635%
31Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit
Source: UNEP, Bloomberg New Energy Finance
INVESTMENT IN POWER CAPACITY, 2008–15 ($BN)
Renewables ex large hydro
Fossil fuel
Nuclear
Large hydro
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
32Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit
Note: New investment volume adjusts for re-invested equity. Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
RENEWABLE ENERGY INVESTMENT BY REGION 2004-2015 ($BN)
5.611.9
29.133.2
35.5
23.9
34.7
49.140.6
35.337.0
44.1
'04'05'06'07'08'09'10'11'12'13'14'15
United States
0.83.15.2
11.411.8
7.97.210.2
7.74.4
8.07.1
'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
Brazil
1.73.33.75.06.15.5
12.09.3
10.112.0
13.3
12.8
'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
AMER (excl. US & Brazil)
24.833.3
46.9
66.8
81.882.7
113.4122.9
89.0
60.062.0
48.8
'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
Europe
7.39.010.012.413.613.919.3
23.8
30.2
44.4
48.847.6
'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
ASOC (excl. China & India)
3.08.3
11.216.7
25.6
38.839.6
47.461.7
62.0
87.8
102.9
'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
China
2.73.04.96.75.64.38.8
12.87.86.68.3
10.2
'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
India
0.60.81.11.82.31.64.13.0
10.29.37.912.5
'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
Middle East & Africa
33Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
401
87
0
187
5
188
0
188
5
189
0
189
5
190
0
190
5
191
0
191
5
192
0
192
5
193
0
193
5
194
0
194
5
195
0
195
5
196
0
196
5
197
0
197
5
198
0
198
5
199
0
199
5
200
0
200
5
201
0
201
5
Note: Includes NGL and processing gain, but excludes biofuels
Source: IEA; CDIAC; BP; Bloomberg New
Energy Finance
GLOBAL CARBON EMISSIONS FROM FOSSIL FUELS(GIGATONNES CO2/YEAR)
0.00%2.00%4.00%6.00%8.00%10.00%
30
32
34
36
5.5% 5.7% 3.1% 5.4% 4.2% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 3.5%
0%
2%
4%
6%
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
2012
20
13
20
14
2015
5.5% 5.7% 3.1% 0% 5.4% 4.2% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 3.5%
Global GDP growth (real)
34Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit
Source: BNEF; OECD; UN; UNFCCC
TRENDS IN GLOBAL ECONOMY, ENERGY USE AND EMISSIONS
2000-2015
(emissions +40%)
2015-2030
(emissions flat)
2015-2030
(emissions -20%,
in line with 2°C as
expressed in the
Paris Agreement)
Index (2000 = 100)
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
2000 2005 2010 2015
Population
GDP
Emissions
Energy- related
emissions Population x x x= GDP
Capita
Energy
GDP
Emissions
Energy
1.2%1.5%
-0.5%0.0%
1.0%1.5%
-1.20% -1.20%
1.0%1.5%
-2.00% -2.00%
35Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
GLOBAL EMISSIONS INTENSITY OF POWER GENERATION AND SHARE OF ELECTRICITY IN FINAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, CAIT, BP Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, CAIT, BP
EMISSIONS INTENSITY OF POWER
GENERATION (TCO2E/MWH)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
ELECTRICTY SHARE IN FINAL
ENERGY CONSUMPTION (%)
On current trend it
will take 150 years
to decarbonise
power generation
And 332 years to
fully electrify
energy the global
energy system
36Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit
Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Excludes corporate and government R&D, and spending for digital energy and energy
storage projects (reported in annual statistics only). Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGYQ1 2004-Q3 2016 ($BN)
37Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit
ItalySpain
DenmarkFranceUnited KingdomGermany
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
QUARTERLY NEW INVESTMENT – EUROPEAN COUNTRIESQ1 2004-Q3 2016 ($BN)
Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Excludes corporate and government R&D, and spending for digital energy and energy storage projects
(reported in annual statistics only). Excludes investment in nuclear.
$2.6bn $2.6bn
$0.7bn $0.03bn
$0.6bn$2.7bn
$0.3bn $0.4bn $0.2bn $0.1bn
$0.2bn $0.1bn $0.02bn $0.1bn $0.01bn $0.1bn
$12.3bn$12.4bn
$12.8bn
$9.3bn Portugal Greece
38Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Waste
Agriculture
IndustrialProcesses
Other energy
Transport
Power
LULUCF
Historical emissions
2030target
2020target
2050target
Note: 2020 and 2030 targets have been pledged by the EU under the Kyoto Protocol and Paris Agreement respectively. The 2050 target is set at
80% below 1990 levels, and the aspirational target established under the EU’s 2050 low carbon economy roadmap.
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, European
Energy Agency, Eurostat, CAIT
EU28 EMISSIONS BY SECTOR AND 2020-50 TARGET LEVELS(MTCO2E/YR)
39Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Other
Renewables
Nuclear
Gas
Coal
Emissions intenisty and trajectory consistent with climate goals
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Eurostat,
European Energy Agency
EU28 POWER GENERATION MIX AND EMISSIONS INTENSITY
% generation mix Emissions intensity of power
generation (TCO2e/MWh)
40Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit
Note: Axes show percentage of generation mix, bubble shows total carbon emissions Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
EUROPE GENERATION MIX AND EMISSIONS
100% zero carbon
100% gas100% coal
1GtCO2e
1990
41Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit
Note: Axes show percentage of generation mix, bubble shows total carbon emissions Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
EUROPE GENERATION MIX AND EMISSIONS
100% zero carbon
100% gas100% coal
1GtCO2e
1991
42Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit
Note: Axes show percentage of generation mix, bubble shows total carbon emissions Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
EUROPE GENERATION MIX AND EMISSIONS
100% zero carbon
100% gas100% coal
1GtCO2e
1992
43Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit
Note: Axes show percentage of generation mix, bubble shows total carbon emissions Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
EUROPE GENERATION MIX AND EMISSIONS
100% zero carbon
100% gas100% coal
1GtCO2e
1993
44Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit
Note: Axes show percentage of generation mix, bubble shows total carbon emissions Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
EUROPE GENERATION MIX AND EMISSIONS
100% zero carbon
100% gas100% coal
1GtCO2e
1994
45Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit
Note: Axes show percentage of generation mix, bubble shows total carbon emissions Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
EUROPE GENERATION MIX AND EMISSIONS
100% zero carbon
100% gas100% coal
1GtCO2e
1995
46Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit
Note: Axes show percentage of generation mix, bubble shows total carbon emissions Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
EUROPE GENERATION MIX AND EMISSIONS
100% zero carbon
100% gas100% coal
1GtCO2e
1996
47Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit
Note: Axes show percentage of generation mix, bubble shows total carbon emissions Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
EUROPE GENERATION MIX AND EMISSIONS
100% zero carbon
100% gas100% coal
1GtCO2e
1997
48Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit
Note: Axes show percentage of generation mix, bubble shows total carbon emissions Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
EUROPE GENERATION MIX AND EMISSIONS
100% zero carbon
100% gas100% coal
1GtCO2e
1998
49Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit
Note: Axes show percentage of generation mix, bubble shows total carbon emissions Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
EUROPE GENERATION MIX AND EMISSIONS
100% zero carbon
100% gas100% coal
1GtCO2e
1999
50Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit
Note: Axes show percentage of generation mix, bubble shows total carbon emissions Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
EUROPE GENERATION MIX AND EMISSIONS
100% zero carbon
100% gas100% coal
1GtCO2e
2000
51Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit
Note: Axes show percentage of generation mix, bubble shows total carbon emissions Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
EUROPE GENERATION MIX AND EMISSIONS
100% zero carbon
100% gas100% coal
1GtCO2e
2001
52Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit
Note: Axes show percentage of generation mix, bubble shows total carbon emissions Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
EUROPE GENERATION MIX AND EMISSIONS
100% zero carbon
100% gas100% coal
1GtCO2e
2002
53Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit
Note: Axes show percentage of generation mix, bubble shows total carbon emissions Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
EUROPE GENERATION MIX AND EMISSIONS
100% zero carbon
100% gas100% coal
1GtCO2e
2003
54Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit
Note: Axes show percentage of generation mix, bubble shows total carbon emissions Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
EUROPE GENERATION MIX AND EMISSIONS
100% zero carbon
100% gas100% coal
1GtCO2e
2004
55Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit
Note: Axes show percentage of generation mix, bubble shows total carbon emissions Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
EUROPE GENERATION MIX AND EMISSIONS
100% zero carbon
100% gas100% coal
1GtCO2e
2005
56Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit
Note: Axes show percentage of generation mix, bubble shows total carbon emissions Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
EUROPE GENERATION MIX AND EMISSIONS
100% zero carbon
100% gas100% coal
1GtCO2e
2006
57Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit
Note: Axes show percentage of generation mix, bubble shows total carbon emissions Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
EUROPE GENERATION MIX AND EMISSIONS
100% zero carbon
100% gas100% coal
1GtCO2e
2007
58Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit
Note: Axes show percentage of generation mix, bubble shows total carbon emissions Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
EUROPE GENERATION MIX AND EMISSIONS
100% zero carbon
100% gas100% coal
1GtCO2e
2008
59Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit
Note: Axes show percentage of generation mix, bubble shows total carbon emissions Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
EUROPE GENERATION MIX AND EMISSIONS
100% zero carbon
100% gas100% coal
1GtCO2e
2009
60Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit
Note: Axes show percentage of generation mix, bubble shows total carbon emissions Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
EUROPE GENERATION MIX AND EMISSIONS
100% zero carbon
100% gas100% coal
1GtCO2e
2010
61Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit
Note: Axes show percentage of generation mix, bubble shows total carbon emissions Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
EUROPE GENERATION MIX AND EMISSIONS
100% zero carbon
100% gas100% coal
1GtCO2e
2011
62Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit
Note: Axes show percentage of generation mix, bubble shows total carbon emissions Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
EUROPE GENERATION MIX AND EMISSIONS
100% zero carbon
100% gas100% coal
1GtCO2e
2012
63Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit
Note: Axes show percentage of generation mix, bubble shows total carbon emissions Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
EUROPE GENERATION MIX AND EMISSIONS
100% zero carbon
100% gas100% coal
1GtCO2e
2013
64Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit
Note: Axes show percentage of generation mix, bubble shows total carbon emissions Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
EUROPE GENERATION MIX AND EMISSIONS
100% zero carbon
100% gas100% coal
1GtCO2e
2014
65Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit
Note: Axes show percentage of generation mix, bubble shows total carbon emissions Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
EUROPE GENERATION MIX AND EMISSIONS
100% zero carbon
100% gas100% coal
1GtCO2e
2015
66Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit
Note: Axes show percentage of generation mix, bubble shows total carbon emissions; Coal and gas generation data is for 2015. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
EUROPE GENERATION MIX AND EMISSIONS
2030 range
0 100 200 300
Portugal
Romania
Bulgaria
Netherlands
Greece
Czech Rep
Spain
Italy
UK
Poland
Germany
0 50 100 150
Portugal
Romania
Greece
Ireland
Belgium
France
Germany
Netherlands
Spain
UK
Italy
Coal (TWh) Gas (TWh)
100% zero carbon
100% gas100% coal
1GtCO2e
2015
2050 target
67Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit
Source: BEIS, Prof. David Rutledge, Bloomberg New
Energy Finance
UK COAL CONSUMPTION 1850-2030 (MT/YR)
0
50
100
150
200
250
1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
BNEF NEO
2016 forecast
68Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit
HINKLEY C – KEY METRICS
Source: NAO, EDF Energy. Image rights: EDF
Power cost: £92.50/MWh
($114.81/MWh)
Indexed for inflation
35 years
Construction cost: £18 billion
35-year power
cost:
£82 billion*
* Assuming 90% uptime; ** National Audit Office estimate
Commissioning
year:
2017
2025
Total net subsidy £30 billion**
69© New Energy Finance, 2005
Executive Summary• New Energy Finance surveyed nearly 3500
organisations in the clean energy industry
• Of 300 start-ups identified, 201 were in the USA, 75 in Europe and 25 in Asia
• Changing patterns of energy use will require Innovation, as well as Regulation
• Europe leads the world in policy, but lags the USA in entrepreneurship in clean energy
• Current policy approaches need to be rethought
70Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit
HORIZON 2020
Horizon 2020 is the biggest EU
Research and Innovation
programme ever with nearly €80
billion of funding available over 7
years (2014 to 2020)
Hydrogen 28
PV 25
Batteries 18
AI 17
3D Printing 4
Graphene 2
Supercomputers 2
Cohesion 18
Ethics 27
Cultural 77
Social 262
Most of the EU-funded projects are collaborative
projects with at least 3 organisations from different
EU Member States or Associated Countries
Total open and recent
calls for proposals1973
Keywords:
71Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit
EUROPE POWER GENERATION BY FUEL TYPE (TWH/YR)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Other RE
Solar
Wind
Hydro
Nuclear
Fossil
Historical Forecast 1
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Other RE
Solar
Wind
Hydro
Nuclear
Fossil
Historical Forecast
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Other RE
Solar
Wind
Hydro
Nuclear
Fossil
Historical Forecast
Intermittent renewables
will account for 53% of
European power
generation in 2040
● Assumes power demand from EVs grows to 80TWh/yr by 2040, or 21% of total demand
● GDP growth assumed to be around 2% per year, in line with forecasts from the IMF
% share of generation
from intermittent (RHS)
Note: Includes EU 28, Norway, Iceland and Switzerland Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
72Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit
BALANCING THE GRID
Coal-fired generation
Inc
um
be
nt
tec
hn
olo
gie
s
Gas-fired generation
Nuclear
Reservoir hydro
Pumped hydro
Interconnectors
Renewable generation
Demand response
New
tec
hn
olo
gie
s Electrochemical storage
Thermal storage
Mechanical storage
Chemical
Years to weeks Weeks to hours2016
Hours to seconds
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
73Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit
Coal-fired generation
Inc
um
be
nt
tec
hn
olo
gie
s
Gas-fired generation
Nuclear
Reservoir hydro
Pumped hydro
Interconnection
Renewable generation
Software solutions
New
tec
hn
olo
gie
s Electrochemical storage
Thermal storage
Mechanical storage
Chemical storage
Hours to seconds
BALANCING THE GRID
Years to weeks Weeks to hours2016
Future
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Power to gas
Interconnectors
Heating/cooling solutionsAmmonium H2
Flywheels
Compressed airBiomass
/biogas
Electric vehiclesElectric vehicles
Demand responseDemand response
Smart Grid and “Gridchain”
Gravity systemsBiofuel
BatteriesBatteriesFlow
batteriesSolar CSP
UHV Supergrid(GEIDCO) Interconnectors
74Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit
POTENTIAL GRIDCHAIN APPLICATIONS
TRANSMISSION
MICROGRID/
MINIGRID
SMART DISTRIBUTION
& COMMUNITY STORAGE
SMART HOMES
AND
BUILDINGS
SMART DISTRIBUTION
NETWORK EDGE
Carbon market with fraud-proof
distributed registry
Community minigrid buys &
sells power, settles payments,
no central controller
EV charging
payments
settlement
Home energy
management with
no central controller
Transmission
network settles all
payments peer-to-
peer
Carbon tax
collected directly
from appliances
Distribution grid balances
supply and demand with no
central controller
Shared and
autonomous vehicle
payments
Secure distributed
asset registries
75Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit
Tesla Model 3
BMW i3
VW e-Golf
Chevy Bolt
Nissan Leaf
Images: Tesla, BMW, VW, GM, Nissan
EV MASS MARKET$30,000 + 200 MILES RANGE
76Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
m vehicles sold per year % of new car sales
Note: forecast uses Gasoline and electricity prices from EIA’s 2015 Annual Energy Outlook ‘Low Oil Price’
scenario (ranging from $50 to $65 per barrel between 2015 and 2025). High scenario assumes greater vehicle
utilisation. Low scenario assumes $20 per barrel oil price Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
GLOBAL LIGHT DUTY VEHICLE AND EV ANNUAL SALES, 2015–40(M VEHICLES SOLD PER YEAR, %)
By 2040
Up to 50%
of new cars
will be EVs
Shared vehicle
scenario
$20 oil
scenario
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
020406080100120140
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
ICE + HEV BEV PHEV EV % of new sales
m vehicles sold per year % of new car sales
77Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit
CONVERGENCE OF RIDE-SHARING, CAR-HAILING, AUTONOMOUS VEHICLE TRENDS
$300m
$500m
$1bn
78Michael Liebreich @MLiebreichBNEF EMEA Future of Energy Summit, 11 October 2016 #BNEFSummit
THE GREAT CLEAN ECONOMY MIGRATION
Renewable
Energy
Smart
Appliances
Smart
Grid
Smart
Buildings
Green
Infrastructure
Precision
Agriculture
Circular
EconomyElectric
Vehicles
Energy
Efficiency
Advanced
manufacturing
Distributed
Energy
Smart
Cities
Drivers of Innovation
1. Technological
2. Digital
3. Financial
4. Social
Unique analysis, tools and data for decision-makers driving
change in the energy system
sales.bnef@bloomberg.net
MARKETS Renewable Energy
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Michael Liebreich
Twitter: @MLiebreich
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