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©2011 eMarketer Inc.
Principal Analysts,
eMarketer Inc.
D E C E M B E R 1 5, 2 0 1 1
N E W Y O R K, NY
Key Digital Trends for 2012
Presented By: Noah Elkin
David Hallerman
Debra Aho Williamson
Sponsored by:
A Virtuous Cycle: Trends in Device Adoption, Consumer Behavior and Content Availability
©2011 eMarketer Inc.
Noah Elkin
@noahelkin
A perfect storm of opportunity is brewing for digital marketers
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Technology adoption is accelerating rapidly, raising consumer expectations about content delivery and accessibility
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Pace of change in consumer behavior is even greater in large emerging markets,such as the BRIC countries
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Forecast: Cloudy, with a chance of…music
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2012 will be the year cloud-based streaming gets a full test
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What it means: finding the opportunities that exist in today’s technology stack
Activities
Platforms
Devices
• Communication• Media consumption• Commerce
• Facebook• Twitter• Amazon• Netflix
• PCs• Smartphones• Tablets• Over-the-Top
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The Check-Ins Begin to Check Out
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Awareness of location-based services has surged, but usage is still far from mainstream
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Finding deals is a bigger motivator for using geolocation than gaining status
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Lots of attention on time-sensitive deals. But an open question remains: Are daily deals good deals for merchants? Or are they giving away the store?
Growing emphasis on generating loyalty. Local merchants and national brands alike recognize that customer acquisition needs to be balanced with customer loyalty.
Ad dollars will follow shoppers. The combination of location, mobile, social and commerce will form a potent force in the advertising market.
The next wave in location revolves around enabling commerce
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Usage of mobile coupons is modest but growing rapidly,driven by smartphone owners
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Consumer interest in mobile wallet services is growing, but the value proposition is not yet clear
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Forecasts agree on mobile payments growth, but not on how much money is on the table
Gartner (July 2011)
Yankee Group (July 2011)
visiongain (Aug 2011)
Juniper (July 2011)
$86.1B (2011)
$556B (2016)
$246B (2011)
$670B (2015)
Note: figures above are worldwide
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The last mile is always the longest, hardest … and most expensive
Image courtesy of Lubos Brieda
Advertising and Marketing in 2012
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David Hallerman
@dhallerman
©2011 eMarketer Inc.
Key trends for digital advertising in 2012…
Magnetic content: attract rather than distract, engage rather than intrude
Video leads the way: brand advertising follows sometimes traditional, sometimes interactive paths
Programmatic buying: efficient and effective for display advertising
Privacy concerns: will become increasingly central to digital marketing
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Magnetic Content
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What blurs the line between advertising and content?
Magnetic content, which can be…
…branded videos
…interactive games
…mobile apps
…digital contests
…any method that attracts as it promotes
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Magnetic content often blends channels and methods to reach the audience seamlessly across platforms
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Branded social pages help mix the message with a call to action,such as discounts
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Branded apps are a prime form of magnetic content
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Viral video is “classic” magnetic content—and is used more and more
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Magnetic content can bypass consumer dislike for advertising and engage them
“You’ll start to see us—and in general the industry—move away from just the static push advertising to more engaged conversations.” —Scott Kelly, digital marketing manager, Ford Motor Co.
“The ad is yesterday. Content is the future.” —Oliver Newton, head of emerging platforms, Starcom MediaVest
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Video Leads Online Ad Growth
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Spending for online video advertising in 2012 will pass the $3 billion mark,growing faster than any other online ad format
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Better reach will be the main factor leading toward more video ad buys
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And better reach will come from the rapidly growing online TV audience
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63% of publishers see in-stream video generating the most ad revenue in 2012
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As online video becomes more established, new layers will be added
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Programmatic Buying for Display Advertising
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Ad inventory options: old ways and new methods
Publisher direct (premium)
Ad networks
Ad exchanges
Private exchanges
Demand-side platforms (DSPs)
Real-time bidding (RTB)
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Publishers extend their sales reach by putting inventory on exchanges or other real-time platforms
What is a private exchange?
Marketplace in which one large publisher sells inventory based on its segmented user base
While many are a single publisher, some are small, related groups of publishers
Also can be large groups (ex: QuadrantOne, which sells inventory from hundreds of newspaper sites)
Often fueled using RTB technology
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Nick Johnson, senior vice president, digital media sales, NBC Universal
“If advertisers want to come in, we’re selling
them the network. We’re not selling them
placements; we’re selling them people.”
What is a demand-side platform (DSP)?
System for managing multiple ad exchange accounts using a single interface
Lets marketers integrate outside data directly into DSPs for buying via RTB methods
Prime example of programmatic buying
Trading desks are essentially in-house agency DSPs
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Significant share of those considering a DSP say it will be a part of their efforts
What is real-time bidding (RTB)?
Component of a DSP, ad exchange or network that lets buyers use their own data and targeting options to bid for each ad impression
Gives marketers a controlled environment for buying ad inventory and optimizing costs
Fueled by a wealth of data, such as IP address, geolocation, current site user is viewing, ad unit size and format, time of day, user profile
Based on instantaneous auctions (duh!)
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RTB’s share of display spending is still small, but growing rapidly
Programmatic buying: can be more effective, but control is a concern
Privacy Concerns: Real and Growing
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Internet users regularly contradict themselves about privacy concerns
Is the privacy debate outdated? Or is the concept of privacy simply changing?
The vast majority of consumers simply want to know what data is being collected, a form of control
When it comes to data, control and knowledge are essential for at least half of consumers
Interesting that “only” 59% of internet users say government should be responsible for protecting their privacy
Which players should be responsible for protecting user privacy?
Advertisers and agencies? Online publishers and retailers? Search engines? Trade groups, such as the IAB? Privacy vendors, such as TRUSTe or Evidon? Other ad-infrastructure vendors, such as ad networks? Browser makers? Operating-system creators? The government? Users themselves?
Twitter: #eMwebinar
Two basic ways the ad industry is responding to privacy challenges
Transparency: here is what we’re doing and why we’re doing it
Trade-offs: here is something of value in exchange for your time, attention and data
Of course, transparency itself is a form of value—knowledge and control help create trust
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Trends in Social Media Marketing
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Debra Aho Williamson
@debrawilliamson
Social Network Audience: 66% of US Internet Users in 2012
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Two-thirds of US internet users will use social networks in 2012
But the pace of growth will be less dramatic over the next few years.
Asian, Black and Hispanic populations lead in usage
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Social Network Ad Revenues: Still Rising
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Worldwide social network ad revenues will pass $8 billion in 2012
Facebook will have $5.8 billion in advertising revenue in 2012
Facebook trends to watch in 2012:
Privacy. The FTC agreement doesn’t mean Facebook’s privacy challenges are over. There will be more attention than ever on how Facebook uses its members’ information.
Ad revenue. To keep ad revenues growing, the company will spend more time evangelizing the benefits of buying ads to support a Facebook marketing presence.
Mobile. Facebook needs to make its mobile platform even better to attract international audiences. And mobile ads are long overdue.
Twitter: #eMwebinar
Measurement: Moving Toward Metrics That Prove Business Value
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CMOs need hard metrics to support social media spending increases
Marketers still focusing on measuring fans rather than business results
Top companies want to gain more consumer insights and develop dashboards and KPIs
How to get to the metrics that matter
Measure (something!)
Know your business goals
Don’t wait for the silver bullet success metric
Look at more than branding results
Be a leader in the next phase of social media measurement.
Google+: Attracting Marketer Attention
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Google+ will draw marketer attention in 2012
Google’s social network opened to brands in November 2011. Consumers can add a brand to their Google+ Circles. Brands can then do the same, segmenting their audience into different groups.
+1 button adds social actions to search. A Google+ page can affect a brand’s search results, and searching on Google for “+[Brand]” takes the user directly to the company’s Google+ page.
Early usage trends have been up and down. However, the size of the audience may be moot if Google can create new ad products that blend social and search.
Twitter: #eMwebinar
Adoption of Google+ Pages is promising, with 61% of the top 100 brands there
Wrap-Up: 2012 – Doomsday or Payday?
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Noah Elkin
@noahelkin
London Olympic Games promise true multiscreen opportunities
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Digital is the new battleground state
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2012 presidential election and Olympics will provide a short-term advertising jolt
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Device adoption trends signal new imperatives for marketers. Consumers’ approach is increasingly platform-agnostic.
The line between advertising and content continues to blur. Marketers are looking to bypass consumer dislike of advertising through new forms of cross-channel engagement.
Social networking remains in growth mode. Users and ad revenues are on the rise; measurement is still evolving.
Consumers’ mobile, social and shopping behaviors are converging at the last mile. Brands need to understand where location fits with their different touchpoints, from check-in to checkout.
Privacy remains on the front burner for consumers and marketers alike. Concerns are real and growing across online, social and mobile platforms.
Key takeaways
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© 2011 IBM Corporation
CMO’s feeling overwhelmed…
Expected level of complexity and preparedness to handlePercent of Global CMOs responding
IBM CMO Study finds that with a torrent of complexity, CMOs feel unprepared for the amount of complexity they face.
© 2011 IBM Corporation
Overwhelmed with channels, devices, and social media
IBM CMO Study finds CMOs are underprepared for data explosion and look to technology and analytics for help
Under-preparednessPercent of CMOs reporting under-preparedness
© 2011 IBM Corporation
Better prepared CMOs more likely to succeed
Percent of CMOs reporting under-preparedness to manage market factors
IBM CMO Study finds that preparing for and dealing with your marketing challenges can improve business success
Lower unpreparedness correlated with out
performance
© 2011 IBM Corporation
How are you doing? Learn more with the IBM CMO Self-Assessment Tool
Download the CMO Study for our Interactive Marketing Resource Center at http://bit.ly/tg14Zr
Principal Analysts, eMarketer, Inc.
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Sponsored by:
Key Digital Trends for 2012
Questions & AnswersRegistrants will receive an email tomorrow that includes a link to view the deck and webinar recording.
For more discussion, please join us after the webinar on Twitter.
To learn about eMarketer Total Access please visit www.emarketer.com/productsor contact us: (800) 405-0844 or webinars@emarketer.com
Presented by: Noah Elkin, David Hallerman and Debra Aho Williamson