Post on 17-Dec-2015
Electoral College
• Why did we do this?• Why do we still have it?• What political interests are preserved
via Electoral College
• So, you want to be an Elector?
Electoral College
• What is it– Constitutional compromise– Indirect election of President
– Electing a group of people to select Head of Government
Electoral College
• Brief History• 1789, no such thing as national
elections– Few people with national visibility– No national media / communication– Impossible to conduct national campaign– No party system
• many potential candidates
Electoral College
• History– 1789, not clear what the role of the President
would be• An extension of Congress• A Prime Minister• No Big Deal, and they knew GW would be it
– Solution:• Each state’s legislature pick group of people to
decide who to support
Electoral College
• Founder’s ‘solution’• Article 2.1
– each state shall appoint, in a Manner as the Legislature therof may direct, an Number of Electors, equal to the whole Number of Senators and Represenatives
– Meet in their state, cast votes for two people, send votes to US Senate
Electoral College
• Founders’ solution– Person with most votes is President,
person with 2nd most votes is VP– If a tie, Congress decides
– Didn’t think that President and Vice President might be enemies
Electoral College
• Early Problems– States didn’t know what to do– How appoint electors?– 1789
• New York’s legislature couldn’t agree• States didn’t know how to keep VP candidate
(Adams) from having as many votes as Washington
Electoral College
• History / Problems– 1789 method of selection
• 5 states used legislature to appoint (NY)• MA appointed some by legislature, some by
legislature from list of top 2 candidates in each Cong. district
• NH 5 electors selected by voters statewide• VA 10 electors selected by voters in districts• 1789, 1792 ‘unanimous’ elections
Electoral College
• Problems– 1789 - 1800
• 6 of 12 states selected by popular vote• states often split EC delegation• Selection in 1789, 1796, 1800 not winner-take-
all• What might this cause?
Electoral College
• 1796 First ‘real’ contest• 4 well known candidates
– Adams (Fed), Pinckney (Fed), Jefferson (DR), Burr (DR)
– weak concept of party ‘running mate’– If top 2 tied, goes to Congress
Electoral College
• 1796 Results (140 voters, 70 to win )
– Adams (F) 35,726 (53%) 71 EC votes– Jefferson (D) 31,115 (47%) 69 EC votes– Pinckney (F) 59 EC
votes– Burr (D) 30 EC votes– Hamilton wanted Pinckney, got some SC
Electors to vote Jefferson / Pinkney
Electoral College
• Or, if this happened today:– President Romney– Vice President Biden
– President GW Bush– Vice President Kerry
Electoral College
• 1796– Adams (F) / Pinckney (F) 45 - 49– Jefferson (D) / Burr (D) 25 - 30– Jefferson (D) / S. Adams (D) 14 - 15– Adams (F) / Ellsworth (F) 11 – Jefferson (D) / Pinckney (F) 9 - 14– Jefferson (D) / Clinton (D) 6 - 7– Adams (F) / Jay (F) 5 – Adams (F) / Jefferson (D) 1 - 6
Electoral College
• 1800– an accidental tie– Result
• Jefferson (DR) 41,330 (61%) 73 EC• Burr (DR) 73 EC• Adams (F) 25,952 (39%) 65 EC• Pinckney (F) 64 EC• Jay (F) 1 EC
Electoral College
• 1800– Jefferson was supposed to be Dems top
choice, Burr # 2– Tie goes to House of Reps– ‘Lame Duck’ Federalists controlled– 16 state delegations, each w/ 1 vote
• need majority (9 votes)
Electoral College
• 1800– For one week, over 35 ballots, Jefferson
got just 8 votes– Hamilton told Federalists Jefferson less
worse than Burr– Federalists switch on 36th Ballot, Jefferson
wins
Electoral College
• 1804– Burr runs for Governor of NY
• Hamilton smears Burr
– Burr gets even.– Shoots Hamilton– Hamilton dead
Electoral College
• 1804• 12th Amendment
– Electors cast one vote for President– Separate vote for Vice President
– Still up to Congress to break ties
Electoral College
• Developments since 1800s– Popular voting more common post 1830– National political parties– Move toward ‘winner take all’ rules in many
states• only 2 left that divide up Electors (NE, ME)
Electoral College
• Poor Record?– 4 times populat vote winner different than
Electoral College:
• 1824, 1876, 1888, 2000• twice (1824, 1876) Congress has had to select
President…came close in 1968• 11 of 34 election had no popular vote majority
winner
Electoral College
• How it works today– need 270 Electors to win– state delegation = number of members of
Congress– Each candidate files a slate of trusted
electors w/ Secretary of State– Electors pledged to support their candidate
Electoral College
• How it works today– States decide how many electors each
candidate gets after popular vote• nearly all states = winner take all
• Federal Law & Deadlines– Electors meet at Capitol, December 13th– Deadline for National Archives December
22nd– Congress certifies election January 6th
Electoral College
• Deadlines– created massive problem in 2000
• Florida recount, lawsuits taking weeks• December 13 deadline looming• Major factor forcing US Supreme Court to
intervene
Electoral College
• Apportionent• Not by population
– Senate seats skew influence of smallest states
• One EC vote in WY = 198,000 people• One EC vote in VT = 200,000 people• One EC vote in NY, CA IL, FL, TX = 600,000 people
Electoral College
• Apportionment• 20 smallest states have 30m people
– they get 80 EC votes (44 if by population)• AK, DE, DC, HI, ID, ME, MT, ND, NH, RI, SD, VT, WY…
NE, NM, WV, (Bold = 150%)
• NY+ NJ = 28m people– they get 46 EC votes
• CA = 36m people– it gets 55 EC votes
Electoral College
• Apportionment• A structural partisan advantage?• What are the politics of smallest states?
– Bush beat Gore by 13% in smallest states • GW Bush won 61 of 84 small state
electors in 2000
Electoral College
• Apportionment– if allocated by population, GOP candidates
win 20 fewer EC votes 2000 & 2004
– or, GOP candidates started w/ a built-in 20 EC vote head start given political geography
– Change after re-apportionment 2010
Electoral College
• Apportionment
• What are the reasons for over-representing small states in the EC– Today, what purpose is served?
Electoral College
• Faithless Electors– might be the least of our worries
– rare, typically protest votes
– can this be regulated?
Electoral College
• Election Failures
• What is the point of popular vote for a national office– aggregate national opinion, produce
outcome
Electoral College
• Election Failure– EC not good at producing a winner with
majority popular support• Manufactured majorities
– EC good at translating narrow popular vote wins into clear EC majorities
– Reagan 1980; Clinton’s 43 % in 1992
Electoral College
• Attempts at Reform– Constitutional Amendments
• after 1948, award electors proportionate to popular vote in state
– 64 Y in Senate, died in House• after 1968, Direct Election of President
– 338 votes in House, 51 in Senate
Electoral College
• Reform Proposals• Colorado 2004
– PR allocation inside state– why is this a dumb idea?
• California 2007– winner-take-all by congressional district– just as dumb?
2000 Pop EC vote by CD by PR Gore 48.4 % 266 (49 % ) 251 257 Bush 47.9 270 (51 %) 287 258 Nader 2.7 20 others 1.0 3
1996 Clinton 49.2 379 (70 %) 345 262 Dole 40.7 159 (30 %) 193 220 Perot 8.4 49 others 1.7 7
1992 Clinton 43.0 370 (69%) 324 232 Bush 37.5 168 (31 % ) 214 203 Perot 18.9 102
1980 Reagan 50.7 489 (91 %) 396 273 Carter 41.0 49 (9 %)142 221 Anderson 6.6 35 others 1.9 9
BOLD = MAJORITY
1976 Carter 50.1 297 (55 % ) 269 270 Ford 48.0 240 (45 % ) 269 258 others 1.8 10
1968 Nixon 43.2 301 (56 %) 289 231 Humphr 42.7 191 (35 %) 192 225 Wallace 13.5 46 (8 %) 57 79 others 0.6 2
1960 Kennedy 49.8 303 (56 %) 278 266 Nixon 49.5 219 (41%) 245 266 unaffil. 0.7 15 (3% ) 14 5
BOLD = MAJORITY
Electoral College
• Current Reform Proposals• Motivated by difficulty of amending US
Constitution– direct election obvious reform, but hardest
to achieve• State by state compact only other
option
Electoral College
• National Popular Vote Compact– States by state agreement to award state EC
votes to national pop. vote winner– In effect when approved by states w/ majority of
electors– Now law in states = to 132 electoral votes– 49% of 270
Electoral College
• How would direct election change campaigns?– Large states– Small states– Urban areas– Rural areas
Electoral College
• How would direct election change campaigns?Less emphasis on handfull of “battleground”
states– 2008 McCain + Obama visited few small
states (NM, NV, NH)• none of the 14 other smallest
Electoral College
• How would direct election change campaigns?Less emphasis on handfull of “battleground”
states– Obama + McCain ignored 4 of 5 largest
states (CA, NY, TX, IL)
Electoral College
• Direct election diffuse campaign – goal = plurality of votes
• What strategies– TV time cheap in small & rural states– Mobilize urban areas
• Who advantaged?
Electoral College
• How would NPV change role of third parties?
• What incentives to run?
• What effects on contests?– G. Wallace 1968; Nader 2000
Electoral College
• Popular vote:– Plurality winner vs. majority winner– Popular vote does not produce majority
winner
– NPV + IRV ?
Electoral College
• Who advantaged by status quo?– Small states
• Republicans (slightly)
– Battle ground states• Hogs, corn & wheat
– Already well protected in US Senate
Electoral College
• Protects interests of “states”– Protected in Senate
• What are states?– what common interest of AK, HI, ND, VT,
etc....
Electoral College
• Legitimacy crisis?
• What if Gore wasn’t a gracious non-winner in 2000?
• What if GW Bush “lost” FL under suspicious circumstances, but won nationally by 500,000 votes?– how much legitimacy would GOP have granted
President Gore?
Electoral College
• Or:– Obama wins 2008 with results nearly
identical to Kerry vote in 2004 (but narrowly wins OH)• Narrow EC victory, lose NPV by 2%, 2,000,000
votes
– Given hostility in face of near landslide in ‘08, how would GOP have responded?
Electoral College
• Defense– It works
• Popular vote would still have plurality outcome• 1876, 1888 popular vote winner was wrong, EC
was correct
– Produces good presidents
Electoral College
• Defense– Prevents crisis when national vote w/
“margin of litigation”• keeps recounts to few states• What if NPV result a 200,000 margin (.001% of
130,000,000 votes cast)• Litigation in all 50 states for recounts