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Electoral College Outcomes

•Recent patterns

•Current array of Dem, Rep, toss-up states

•Alternate scenarios for Nov. 2

Article 2, Section 1 of the U. S. Constitution created the Electoral College. Each state receives as many electoral votes as it has senators and representatives. Therefore, each state, including the District of Columbia, will have at least three electors.

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Recent patterns: Bush/Dukakis - 1988

Republicans win big

EC: Bush 426 (79%), Dukakis 111 (21%)

Votes: Bush – 48,886,097 (53.9%)Dukakis – 41,809,074 (46.1%)

Total votes: 90,695,171

Reps=blue, Dems=Red

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Democrats win big in 1996

EC: Clinton 379 (70%), Dole 159 (30%)

Votes: Clinton - 47,402,357 (49%); Dole 39,198,755 (41%); Perot – 8,085,402 (8%)

92,686,514 total votes

Recent patterns: Clinton/Dole - 1996

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Recent patterns: Gore/Bush 2000

No one wins big EC: Bush 271 (50.4%), Gore 266 (49.6%)

Vote: Bush – 50,456,002 (48.4%Gore – 50,999,897 (48.9%)Nader – 2,882,955 (2.8%)

Total Votes: 104,338,854

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2004 – General Pattern:of EC Votes:

Rep (Red), Dem (Blue) and Toss-up (White) States

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Distribution of Electoral College Votes – Current Distribution and Democratic

“Sure” States (>5%)

• Current distribution

• Changes since 2000 – Dem sure states lost 3 EC votes

• Total 183 but only 179 if Kerry loses Hawaii

 State EC Votes

Change in # of Votes since 2000

Bush-Dem: (Poll+2000)/2

Bush Poll

%

Kerry Poll

%

Dem "Sure" states

         

Dist. Col. 3 0 -72.0 11 78

New York 31 -2 -21.5 39 57

Rhode Island 4 0 -21.0 41 54

Mass 12 0 -20.5 36 50

Maryland 10 0 -14.0 43 54

Connecticut 7 -1 -13.5 42 52

Illinois 21 -1 -12.0 42 54

Vermont 3 0 -11.5 40 53

New Jersey 15 0 -11.5 42 50

Delaware 3 0 -10.0 38 45

California 55 1 -9.5 42 49

Hawaii 4 0 -8.5 46 45

Maine 4 0 -8.0 39 50

Washington 11 0 -5.5 44 50

Dem "Sure" states =>

183 -3 -15.9 31 46

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• Changes since 2000: Dem leaning states lose 4 EC votes

• Total 65• Total blue sure and leaning 183+65=248• Minus (Hawaii): 244 (need 36 votes)

Distribution of EC Votes: Democrat “Leaning” States (2.5-5%)

 State EC Votes

Change since 2000

Bush-Dem:

(Poll+200

0)/2

Bush Poll%

Kerry Poll%

Dem "Leaning" states (1.5-5%)

         

Penn 21 -2 -3.5 46 49

Oregon 7 0 -3.0 44 50

Minnesota 10 0 -2.5 46 49

Michigan 17 -1 -2.5 47 48

Wisconsin 10 -1 -4.0 44 52

Democratic leaning 65 -4 -3.1 42 49

Dem Sure+lean => 248       

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Distribution of EC Votes: Rep “Sure” States, 5%+

•Changes since 2000 -Rep states gain 3 EC votes•Total 217

 State EC Votes

Change in EC Votes since 2000

Bush-Dem: (Poll+2000)/2

BushPoll%

KerryPoll%

Rep "Sure" States          

Arizona 10 2 5.5 50 45

Missouri 11 0 6.0 52 44

Arkansas 6 0 6.0 49 43

Virginia 13 1 5.0 50 47

Tennessee 11 0 6.5 51 41

North Carolina 15 1 11.0 52 43

Mississippi 6 -1 12.0 51 42

Alabama 9 0 16.5 57 39

Georgia 15 2 11.0 52 42

Indiana 11 -1 17.5 58 39

Kentucky 8 0 16.5 56 39

South Carolina 8 0 17.0 57 39

Louisiana 9 0 17.0 58 32

Kansas 6 0 22.0 60 37

Texas 34 2 21.5 59 37

South Dakota 3 0 22.0 55 33

Montana 3 0 22.5 57 36

North Dakota 3 0 24.0 55 35

Oklahoma 7 -1 27.5 61 28

Alaska 3 0 29.0 57 30

Nebraska 5 0 29.5 61 32

Idaho 4 0 35.0 59 30

Wyoming 3 0 38.5 65 29

Utah 5 0 43.0 69 24

Rep "Sure" States =>

217 3 22.6 63 40

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• Changes since 2000: Rep leaning states gain 0 EC vote

• Total 5

• Total Rep sure and leaning 217+5=222

• Add Hawaii: 226 (need 44 votes)

Distribution of EC Votes: Republican “Leaning” States

 State E C Votes

Change in # Of Votes since 2000

Bush-Dem: (Poll+2000)/2

Bush Poll

%

Kerry Poll%

Rep "Leaning" States (1.5-5%)

         

West Virginia 5 0 5.0 51 47

Rep "Leaning" States =>) 5 0 5.0 51 47

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Changes since 2000: Toss-up states gain 2 EC votes

Total 68

Distribution of EC Votes: “Toss-up” States (-2% to +2%)

 State EC Votes

Change in # of Votes since 2000

Bush-Dem: (Poll+2000)/2

Bush Poll%

Kerry Poll

%

Iowa 7 0 -1.0 44 45

New Hampshire 4 0 -0.5 46 48

Florida 27 2 0.5 48 47

Nevada 5 1 1.5 49 49

New Mexico 5 0 1.5 47 44

Ohio 20 -1 2.0 50 50

Toss up states => 68 2 0.7 47.3 47.2

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1st Scenario

Bush Wins “Big”Assumptions:

• Wins all Rep sure states = 217• Wins all Rep leaning and Hi=9• Wins all toss-up states =68• Wins Minn. and Michigan =27• Total Bush: 321

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2nd Scenario

Bush Wins “Small”Assumptions:

• Wins all Rep states = 217• Wins Rep leaning =5• Wins all toss-up states=68• Total Bush: 276• Total Bush win range: 276-321

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4 Scenarios

Kerry Wins “Small”• Assumptions:• Wins all Dem sure states except Hi

= 179• Wins all Dem leaning=65• Wins one large toss-up state =

Florida=27• OR: wins Ohio (20) +Iowa (7) =27• Total Kerry: 271

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4th Scenario

Kerry Wins “Big”• Assumptions:• Wins all Dem sure states

including Hi = 183• Wins all Dem leaning states = 65• Wins all toss-up states =68• Total Kerry: 316• Total Kerry win range: 271-316