Post on 09-Oct-2015
www.eia.gov U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis
Outlook for U.S. shale oil and gas
International Monetary Fund March 27, 2014 | Washington, DC By Adam Sieminski, EIA Administrator
The U.S. has experienced a rapid increase in natural gas and oil production from shale and other tight resources
2
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0Eagle Ford (TX)Bakken (MT & ND)Spraberry (TX & NM Permian)Bonespring (TX & NM Permian)Wolfcamp (TX & NM Permian)Yeso-Glorieta (TX & NM Permian)Niobrara-Codell (CO, WY)Haynesville (LA & TX)Marcellus (PA & WV)Woodford (OK)Granite Wash (OK & TX)Austin Chalk (LA & TX)Monterey (CA)
U.S. tight oil production million barrels of oil per day
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35Marcellus (PA & WV)Haynesville (LA & TX)Eagle Ford (TX)Fayetteville (AR)Barnett (TX)Woodford (OK)Bakken (ND)Antrim (MI, IN, & OH)Rest of US 'shale'
U.S. dry shale gas production billion cubic feet per day
Sources: EIA derived from state administrative data collected by DrillingInfo Inc. Data are through February 2014 and represent EIAs official tight oil & shale gas estimates, but are not survey data. State abbreviations indicate primary state(s).
International Monetary Fund March 27, 2014
U.S. crude oil and natural gas production is up dramatically since 2010 and will continue to grow rapidly; this has strategic implications for the United States
Refinery operations/investment
Logistics infrastructure investment
Exports of petroleum products
Exports of crude oil and natural gas (LNG)
Operation of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve
3 International Monetary Fund March 27, 2014
U.S. shale gas leads growth in total gas production through 2040 to reach half of U.S. output
4
U.S. dry natural gas production trillion cubic feet
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Early Release
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Associated with oil Coalbed methane
Tight gas
Shale gas
Alaska Non-associated offshore
Non-associated onshore
Projections History 2012
International Monetary Fund March 27, 2014
billion cubic feet per day
5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2005 2012 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
U.S. dry gas consumption trillion cubic feet
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Early Release
Projections History
Industrial*
Electric power
Commercial
Residential
Transportation**
11.2
4.1
1.7
11.0
3.6
9.1
4.2
0.7
8.5
2.9
*Includes combined heat-and-power and lease and plant fuel **Includes pipeline fuel
U.S. natural gas consumption growth is driven by electric power, industrial, and transportation use
International Monetary Fund March 27, 2014
U.S. manufacturing output and natural gas use grows with low natural gas prices, particularly in the near term
6
manufacturing natural gas consumption quadrillion Btu
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Early Release
International Monetary Fund March 27, 2014
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2010 2025 2040Aluminum Glass
Iron and steel
Paper
Food
Refining and related
Bulk chemicals
Other
Metal based
billion cubic feet per day
durables
manufacturing
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
U.S. natural gas use in the transportation sector grows rapidly with the largest share in freight trucks
7
natural gas use by mode trillion Btu
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Early Release
International Monetary Fund March 27, 2014
Freight trucks
Buses
Freight rail and marine Light-duty vehicles
22%
billion cubic feet per day
Approximate crude oil equivalent, (thousand barrels per day) 2040
Freight trucks Freight rail and marine Buses Light-duty vehicles
290 71 38
9
U.S. becomes a net exporter of natural gas in the near future
8
U.S. dry natural gas trillion cubic feet per year
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Early Release
International Monetary Fund March 27, 2014
-10
0
10
20
30
40
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Projections History 2012
Consumption
Domestic supply
Net exports
100
75
50
25
0
-25
billion cubic feet per day
Growing tight oil and offshore crude oil production drive U.S. output close to historical high
9
U.S. crude oil production million barrels per day
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Early Release
0
2
4
6
8
10
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Tight oil
Alaska
Other lower 48 onshore
Lower 48 offshore
Projections History 2012
International Monetary Fund March 27, 2014
U.S. maximum production level of 9.6 million barrels per day in 1970
05
10
15
20
25
30
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
U.S. transportation sector motor gasoline demand declines, while diesel fuel accounts for a growing portion of the market
10
transportation energy consumption by fuel quadrillion Btu
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Early Release
International Monetary Fund March 27, 2014
Projections History 2012
59% Motor gasoline
Jet fuel
CNG/LNG
12% 13% 3%
44%
31%
3% 4% Other*
Diesel 22%
2030
47%
13% 3%
30%
1%
2040
Ethanol 4% 5%
5%
*Includes aviation gasoline, propane, residual fuel oil, lubricants, electricity, and liquid hydrogen
U.S. petroleum product imports and exports million barrels per day
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Other petroleum product imports
Distillate exports
Motor gasoline exports
Other petroleum product exports
Distillate imports
Motor gasoline imports
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Early Release
International Monetary Fund March 27, 2014 11
U.S. maintains status as a net exporter of petroleum products
Projections History 2012
Total petroleum product net exports
Although oil use is slightly increased in the High Resource case due to lower prices, net import dependence declines rapidly
0
5
10
15
20
25
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
U.S. liquid fuel supply million barrels per day
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2014 Reference case and High Resource / Improved Technology case
Consumption
Domestic supply
Net imports 40% 32%
Projections History 2012
2005
60%
25%
2016 2040
High Resource
International Monetary Fund March 27, 2014 12
02
4
6
8
10
Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15
China is now the worlds largest net oil importer
13
net imports for China and the United States millions of barrels per day
Note: Net oil imports are defined as total liquid fuels consumption less domestic production Source: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, March 2014
Forecast History
China net imports
United States net imports
Mar-14
International Monetary Fund March 27, 2014
OPEC countries now account for most unplanned outages
14
estimated unplanned crude oil production outages thousand barrels per day
Source: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, March 2014
Non- OPEC
OPEC
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
Jan-2012 Jul-2012 Jan-2013 Jul-2013 Jan-2014
Other Non-OPEC
Syria
Sudan / S. Sudan
Iraq
Nigeria
Libya
Iran
International Monetary Fund March 27, 2014
Key findings of the EIAs International Energy Outlook 2013
With world GDP rising by 3.6 percent per year, world energy use will grow by 56 percent between 2010 and 2040; half of the increase is attributed to China and India
Renewable energy and nuclear power are the worlds fastest-growing energy sources, each increasing by 2.5 percent per year; however, fossil fuels continue to supply almost 80 percent of world energy use through 2040
Natural gas is the fastest growing fossil fuel in the outlook, supported by increasing supplies of shale gas, particularly in the United States
Coal grows faster than petroleum consumption until after 2030, mostly due to increases in Chinas consumption of coal, and slow growth in oil demand in OECD member countries
Given current policies and regulations, worldwide energy-related carbon dioxide emissions are projected to increase 46 percent by 2040, reaching 45 billion metric tons in 2040
International Monetary Fund March 27, 2014 15
Economic activity and population drive increases in energy use; energy intensity improvements moderate this trend
16
average annual change (2010-2040) percent per year
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
U.S. OECDEurope
Japan SouthKorea
China India Brazil MiddleEast
Africa Russia
Energy Intensity GDP per capita Population
International Monetary Fund March 27, 2014
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013
Regional 10-year real GDP growth rates
International Monetary Fund March 27, 2014 17
decade average percent per year
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
OECD Other Non-OECD China India World
2000-2010 2010-2020
2020-2030 2030-2040
Renewable energy and nuclear power are the fastest growing source of world energy consumption out to 2040 world energy consumption by fuel quadrillion Btu
0
50
100
150
200
250
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Liquids (including biofuels)
Renewables (excluding biofuels)
Natural gas
Coal
Nuclear
History Projections 2010
34%
28%
22%
11%
5%
28%
27% 23%
7%
15%
share of world total
18 International Monetary Fund March 27, 2014
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013
World net electricity generation continues to be led by coal
International Monetary Fund March 27, 2014 19
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Coal
Renewables
Natural gas
Nuclear Liquids
trillion kilowatthours
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013
World petroleum and other liquids production exceeds 100 MMbbl/d after 2025
20 International Monetary Fund March 27, 2014
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
million barrels per day
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013
Rest of non-OECD
Russia Rest of OECD Canada United States
OPEC
World natural gas production to keep growing
21 International Monetary Fund March 27, 2014
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
trillion cubic feet
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013
Middle East and North Africa
Russia
Rest of OECD Canada United States
China
Rest of non-OECD
Top ten countries with technically recoverable shale resources
Shale oil rank country billion barrels
1 Russia 75
2 United States 58
3 China 32
4 Argentina 27
5 Libya 26
6 Venezuela 13
7 Mexico 13
8 Pakistan 9
9 Canada 9
10 Indonesia 8
World total 345
Shale gas rank country trillion cubic feet
1 China 1,115
2 Argentina 802
3 Algeria 707
4 United States 665
5 Canada 573
6 Mexico 545
7 Australia 437
8 South Africa 390
9 Russia 285
10 Brazil 245
World total 7,299
Note: ARI estimates U.S. shale oil resources at 48 billion barrels and U.S. shale gas resources at 1,161 trillion cubic feet. Source: United States: EIA and USGS; Other basins: ARI.
22 International Monetary Fund March 27, 2014
Non-OPEC oil supply growth is concentrated in five countries
23 International Monetary Fund March 27, 2014
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Brazil Canada Kazakhstan UnitedStates
Russia OECDEurope
Mexico/Chile
2010 2040
non-OPEC petroleum production million barrels per day
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013
OPEC market share grows after 2025
24
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Non-OPEC petroleum liquids
OPEC petroleum liquids
Nonpetroleum
International Monetary Fund March 27, 2014
world liquids production million barrels per day
History Projections 2010
62
49
5
50
35
2
World energy-related carbon dioxide emissions continue to grow
25
Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook 2013
0
5
10
15
20
25
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Liquid fuels
Coal
Natural gas
International Monetary Fund March 27, 2014
carbon dioxide emissions billion metric tons
History Projections 2010
For more information
International Monetary Fund March 27, 2014 26
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Drilling Productivity Report | www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/
Outlook for U.S. shale oil and gasThe U.S. has experienced a rapid increase in natural gas and oil production from shale and other tight resourcesU.S. crude oil and natural gas production is up dramatically since 2010 and will continue to grow rapidly; this has strategic implications for the United StatesU.S. shale gas leads growth in total gas production through 2040 to reach half of U.S. outputU.S. natural gas consumption growth is driven by electric power, industrial, and transportation useU.S. manufacturing output and natural gas use grows with low natural gas prices, particularly in the near termU.S. natural gas use in the transportation sector grows rapidly with the largest share in freight trucksU.S. becomes a net exporter of natural gas in the near futureGrowing tight oil and offshore crude oil production drive U.S. output close to historical highU.S. transportation sector motor gasoline demand declines, while diesel fuel accounts for a growing portion of the marketU.S. maintains status as a net exporter of petroleum productsAlthough oil use is slightly increased in the High Resource case due to lower prices, net import dependence declines rapidly China is now the worlds largest net oil importerOPEC countries now account for most unplanned outagesKey findings of the EIAs International Energy Outlook 2013Economic activity and population drive increases in energy use; energy intensity improvements moderate this trendRegional 10-year real GDP growth ratesRenewable energy and nuclear power are the fastest growing source of world energy consumption out to 2040World net electricity generation continues to be led by coalWorld petroleum and other liquids production exceeds 100 MMbbl/d after 2025World natural gas production to keep growing Top ten countries with technically recoverable shale resourcesNon-OPEC oil supply growth is concentrated in five countriesOPEC market share grows after 2025World energy-related carbon dioxide emissions continue to growFor more information