Post on 11-Jul-2015
The impact of social media on public safety
@AdeVries23#EFPSA
Social media: the New DNA
1 minute ago
Cases: Analysis of incidents such as Project X
10 minutes ago
Online behaviour and online influence
40 minutes ago
50 minutes ago
Public safety and criminal investigations: the digital side
45 minutes ago
Social Media: be the change…
M Bouman
TNO Nieuwe huisstijl
21 november 2013 2
21 november
2013
3
http://www.c2b-consultancy.nl/C2B_Consultancy/C2B_revolutie.html
Social Media (text) analysis
“At November 22nd around 16.30 and 17.00
I went to a bar in Haren with my brother Mischa
and Alwin de Boer and met Peter Dijkstra.”
DATE TIME TIME
LOCATION
PERSON
PERSONPERSON
PERSON
LOCATION
Data visualisation (and interaction)
21-11-2013 4:40 Titel van de presentatie 11
Who?
Vancouver riotsSTANLEY CUP FINALS 2011
BREAKING NEWS LONDON RIOTS
LIVE
MASSIVE MANHUNT BOSTON MARATHON
HAREN PRESENTS
PROJECT X
FRIDAY SEPTEMBER 2012
‘Word of the year’ and ‘download of the year’ 2012
10 januari 2011
M Bouman
TNO Nieuwe huisstijl
19
Highly promoted…
But then…10 januari 2011
M Bouman
TNO Nieuwe huisstijl
21
Almost all flash mobs start as a joke
But – can – have very violent outcomes:
How does a viral actually work? - Project Toaster
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QAjJTebCh7A&feature=player_embedded
The day after: Project Clean-X
BREAKING NEWS LONDON CLEANUP
Crowdsourcing the riot starters
CrowdsourcingCrime investigations
But days later… Silent march announced?
Said to be a FB page
with +40k „likes‟ and
silent march is bound to
become a catastrophe
The 21st of December: another ‘joke’…
(GeenStijl.nl)
(GeenStijl.nl)
And the start of the new year…
Role of the Dutch media is debated
http://nieuwereporter.nl/
http://weblogs.nos.nl/hoofdredactie/2012/09/22/haren-
als-middelpunt-van-wereld/
International news
Safety & security expenses debated
Just earlier this month:
Role of Facebook debated
Facebook is currently cleaning up…
Riot starters are online too…
Role of Internet trollsdebated
Freedom of speech?:
Ibe Der Führer - FB page
Identity theft and act as an authority:
How one thing leads to another…
How a „hoax‟ creator
becomes trending…
Role of commercial exploitations debated…*
* Companies expanding the viral online for commercial purpose
Even when things turn bad…
Real-time monitoring and post analysis
45
Pukkelpop
Storm incident 2011August 18th 2011, 6.15 PM
46
Damage: photo‟s from eye witnesses
Pukkelpop Twitter messages
Messages about
(rumours on)
casualties and deaths
1. Early warning
2. The incident
3. „Community resilience‟
„Dangerous weather‟
messages as early
indicators
People offering help in
various ways (e.g.
twitterlists)
1. Early warning
I pity those on #pukkelpop ! It was pitch dark
here for over 15 minutes! And hail storm,
lightning, thunder, …OMG!
2. Damage and casualties
SMS from the Standard: according to fireman of
Sint-Truiden 6 deaths on #pp11 because of storm
#shitman
3. „Community resilience‟
#Hasselthelpt 2 beds, shower and breakfast,
ask @Daffybal - pick up at church possible, we
live behind the festival grounds
Pukkelpop
Twitter (blue) vs Facebook (red)
750.000 tweets
60.000 FB posts
Percentage of totals per hour
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
17
18
19
20
21
21.0
1
21.0
2
21.0
3
21.0
4
21.0
5
21.0
6
21.0
7
21.0
8
21.0
9
21
.1
21.1
1
21.1
2
21.1
3
21.1
4
21.1
5
21.1
6
21.1
7
21.1
8
21.1
9
21
.2
21.2
1
21.2
2
21.2
3
22
22.0
1
22.0
2
23
24
25
26
Tweets (alle)
Tweets (uniek)
Post analysis (6): Twitterverse from 17-26 sep
(>750k tweets)
21-11-2013
51
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18.1
2
18.1
5
18.1
8
18.2
1
19.0
0
19.0
3
19.0
7
19.1
0
19.1
3
19.1
6
19.1
9
19.2
2
20.0
1
20.0
4
20.0
7
20.1
0
20.1
3
20.1
6
20.1
9
20.2
2
21.0
1
21.0
4
21.0
7
21.1
0
21.1
3
21.1
6
21.1
9
21.2
2
22.0
1
22.0
4
22.0
7
22.1
0
22.1
3
22.1
6
22.1
9
22.2
2
Aan
tal
(gen
orm
aliseerd
)
Tijdstip (dag.uur)
twitter_all
twitter_aanwezig
facebook_all
Checking it out (a day before)
Checking it out at the 21st (around 15h)
Media influence (total)
Match on „dwdd‟ (incl „luckytv‟), „3fm‟ (incl. „timur‟), „trouw‟, „nos‟, „rtvnoord‟
compared to total set of 50 media names
Graph shows only RT‟s and @‟s for these accounts/keywords
Media influence (zooming in prior to 21st)
Notice the traffic when NOS announced the Project X safety preparations
Influence of authorities, media and total
Graph shows RT‟s and @‟s for these account/keyword sets, the total#
is divided by 250 for comparison
Notice that the authorities and media follow the same pattern at the
night of the 21st
Closer examination of media and authoritypattern before the incident
Graph shows RT‟s and @‟s for these account/keyword sets, the total#
is divided by 250 for comparison
Notice the patterns of total vs media and the increase of media
related traffic the night before
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
17
18
19
20
21
21.0
1
21.0
2
21.0
3
21.0
4
21.0
5
21.0
6
21.0
7
21.0
8
21.0
9
21.1
21.1
1
21.1
2
21.1
3
21.1
4
21.1
5
21.1
6
21.1
7
21.1
8
21.1
9
21.2
21.2
1
21.2
2
21.2
3
22
22.0
1
22.0
2
23
24
25
26
Doden (alle)
Tweets (alle)
Hells Angels (alle)
Geweld (alle)
Smart filtering on public safety themes
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
mob
webs
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
webs
mob
Mobile tweets vs Web tweets (# and %)
0%
1%
17
18
19
20
21
21
.01
21
.02
21
.03
21
.04
21
.05
21
.06
21
.07
21
.08
21
.09
21.1
21.1
1
21.1
2
21
.13
21.1
4
21
.15
21.1
6
21
.17
21
.18
21
.19
21.2
21
.21
21
.22
21
.23
22
22
.01
22
.02
23
24
25
26
tunt
haren
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
17
18
19
20
21
21.0
1
21.0
2
21.0
3
21.0
4
21.0
5
21.0
6
21.0
7
21.0
8
21.0
9
21.1
21.1
1
21.1
2
21.1
3
21.1
4
21.1
5
21.1
6
21.1
7
21.1
8
21.1
9
21.2
21.2
1
21.2
2
21.2
3
22
22.0
1
22.0
2
23
24
25
26
Geotagged tweets < 0.5%
% of total
total #
Wordcloud of situation at 21h
Social network graph from 21h-22h
RT and @ network
Notice the influence of
one (!) Hells Angels
tweet at 21:28PM
(>2500 RT’s, excluding
@’s and keyword usage)
Wordcloud of situation at 22h-> Notice the influence of a hoax about a girl said to be squeezed to death
• Doubt
• Denial
• Confirmation
Retweet rippleDead girl
Retweet ripple(1h)Dead girl
Red = refute rumour
11980 tweets
1st tweet 2012-09-21 21:45:01
Retweet ripple(2h)Dead girl
Retweet ripple(24h)Dead girl
Wat is true? (information validation)
Drinks
Forecast for the 21st
# of Tweets per hour from sept 17th 11.00 till 20.00 and the forecast
of Twitter traffic for the 21st of sept (from 0.00-24.00).
@HopeForBostonHOPE FOR BOSTON
“If you're creating a fake Twitter account
looking for RT's right now, there's a special
place in hell for you.”
For each RT this gets $1 will be donated to
the victims of the Boston Marathon
Explosions #DonateToBoston
Van 15 tot 20 april:
31,919 nieuwe accounts
6,073 accounts „suspended‟
(binnen 2 maanden)
21-11-2013 4:40
Titel van de presentatie
77
“Monitoring was troublesome, but the
authorities were uncapable of intervening
in the digital domain.”
Crowd control
vs community management?
HURRICANE SANDY SHARK ATTACK
Source: The Atlantic
Just some of the issues in the Project X case:
1. Do we see the right things on social media?
• Complete and accurate vision? Equipped for early detection?
2. Which set of eyes and brains should look into it?
• Multi-disciplinary, experience of (new) media and online (criminal)
phenomenon; New ways of working and thinking needed!
3. How do we explain what we see?
• E.g. reliability of messages and how to assess risks?
4. How do we act in different phases of viral development?
• Ranging from (early) removal of FB pages to influencing a large
crowd online.
A call for real-time and smart INTELLIGENCEto be able to ACT on the dynamics of social media
Thank you!
Arnout de Vries
Senior scientist
Innovation Management
Arnout.devries@tno.nl
http://www.tno.nl/
@AdeVries23
#EFPSA