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Education and Employment: The Data Trail
Introduction
Throughout the last three decades of the twentieth century the employment
situation in Australia has altered significantly compared with the labour
force that existed in the decades preceding the Second World War. One group
of Australians to be affected by this change more than any other were its
youth, that is, those in the 15 to 24 year old age bracket. During the 1970s
and 1980s unemployment rates for this age group began to rise and young
people found it increasingly more difficult to obtain full time work. The
downturn impacted positively on the education and training sectors.
The aim of this study was to present a holistic picture of the situation for
15 to 24 year olds with regard to their participation in education, training
and employment through an investigation of existing databases, that is,
those collected by authoritative bodies in Australia and made available to
the general public. Existing data were bought together and synthesised to
describe the participation rates in education, training and employment for
one calendar year, 1998.
As the education and employment situation has altered significantly for 15
to 24 year olds since the 1970s, a number of government reports as well as
areas of research have been documenting this change. In many cases, national
databases have been utilized to depict this changing relationship. This
study contends that while a plethora of data exist, efforts to synthesis
these data and present a coherent picture are limited.
Literature
The literature review for this study encompassed two areas. The first area
examines the change in economic and social conditions that have affected
young people's opportunities to gain entry in to the full time labour
market, illustrating the extent circumstances have altered for those in this
age bracket. The second section provides an overview of government reports
and government funded research that has used national data to examine the
situation of young people in education and employment since the 1970s.
Section 1
Changes to Australia's Economic and Social Situation
Alterations to the composition of Australia's labour force over the past
several decades characterise the evolving nature of modern Australian
society. The impact of economic, technological and social transformations
that began in the early 1970s would manifest itself within business and
government divisions, affecting the buoyant full time labour market that was
thriving during the 1950s and 60s. During the last three decades of the
twentieth century unemployment rates in Australia reached record levels at
various times reaching as high as 11% (Lewis, Drake, Garnett, Jutter, Norris
and Treadgold 1998).
Full time employment is a casualty of the changing phenomenon of modern
societies, which is emanating around the world (Giddens 1999). Throughout
the second half of the twentieth century there has been rapid economic and
social change in Australia, brought about by a culmination of factors such
as increased immigration, the development of technological systems aiding
the rise of globalisation of the world economics and markets, increased
unemployment and the continual expansion of industrialisation and
capitalisation. The Australian society that existed at the end of World War
II constitutes a civilisation that bears little resemblance, in many
respects, to the current Australian nation (Jamrozik, Boland and Urquhart
1995).
The sound economic performance of Australia's economy during the post war
decades can also be measured by the performance of its Gross Domestic
Product (GDP). Like most industrialised nations at the time, Australia was
performing well in relation to the value and output of its product (Lougheed
1988). Increased immigration was another significant characteristic at this
time assisting the social and economic growth of the country by supplying
labour in booming sectors such as mining and manufacturing (de Lepervanche
1984). The luxury of full time employment for Australia's workforce was to
be short lived. By the end of the 1960s the full time employment situation
was under threat. A series of events altered the employment security
Australians had enjoyed for almost twenty years (Marginson 1997).
This golden era of economic prosperity was riding on the back of an economic
model that had been developed by British economist John Keynes. Keynes
(1936) had devised a model of economics that provided a response to the
economic downturn experienced during the 1930s and throughout the Second
World War. In general Keynes' theory supported stimulating the economy by
increasing government spending, which in turn would lead to a fall in
unemployment rates. His theory was based on governments playing a strong
role in the function and stimulation of the economy (Bryan and Rafferty
1999). The economic theory espoused by Keynes (1936) was a departure from
the economic model of the neo-classical economists. The main difference
between the two theories was that the neoclassical economists, such as
Friedman (1953) adhered to the economic concept that supports the market
place as the driving force for the demand of produce, with minimal
government influence (Battin 1997).
The 1970s marked a period in social and economic change in Australia's
history. In 1973 a major international event jolted the world economy, the
price of oil increased at an exorbitant rate, causing a recession in
Australia not seen since the depression of the 1930s. The impact of rising
oil prices led to a significant change in the relationship between
unemployment and inflation, a situation that would continue throughout the
1970s and into the 1980s (Bennetts 1998). Marginson (1997) adds that the
effects of increased oil prices caused a blow-out in the Australian economy
along with government expenditure, which not only has a significant impact
on the employment rates but also affected other areas in the economy. It was
perceived by the government of the time, that is the Whitlam Labour
Government that the Keynesian theory had failed to provide the structure
needed to overcome the new economic crisis. This period marked the start of
the rebirth in economic thinking, the new direction being neo-classicism.
While the effects of the neo-classical economics would not develop in
Australia until the 1980s, its beginnings can be traced back to the time of
the mid 1970s.
New Right economists such as Friedman (1980) and Hayek (1948) espoused the
neo-classical economic theory which was based on less government control of
economic activities. Governments, in Friedman's economic model should be
there to guide and to set laws and policy, not as the catalyst of economic
direction as Keynes had advocated. Social policy formation based on equity
and fairness that had been a corner stone of the early Whitlam years, was
superseded during the time of the Hawke/Keating governments. The new Right
ideology began to seep into policy development in the 1980s. Many government
controlled utilities and organisations became victims of the economic
rationalists who adhered to the view that privatised publicly owned
properties would produce better economic outcomes, than if they stayed as
publicly run institutes (Marginson 1997).
Wearing and Berreen (1994) have argued that while governments have been
driving the philosophies underlying the neo-classical model of economic
thinking, the social costs of the economic rationalists ideology have
actually created additional government costs due to issues such as rising
unemployment. This has occurred because many groups within society have not
fared well under the economic rationalist model and the gap has been
gradually widening between those who have gained economic fortunes and those
who have missed out.
The Impact on Young People
The fall out from changes to Australia's economic and social situation has
been shouldered by its youth, as their opportunity to enter full time work
at the completion of compulsory schooling became an elusive option. The
decline in full time work for young people is due to a combination of
social, technological and economic events that have taken place during the
last quarter of the twentieth century. Policy development relating to young
people from the 1970s to the 1990s mirrors the direction of economic and
social change in Australia. Youth unemployment began to rise as the youth
labour market became devoid of jobs.
As a result of changes to Australian labour markets, most 15 to 24 year olds
have found themselves in a long-term relationship with education and
training systems at the post-compulsory school level, (Ainley and Fleming
1997), delaying the difficulties encountered in obtaining work in the full
time labour market (Wooden 1998). The Australian Bureau of Statistics (1997)
has noted that an increase from 44% to 51% of young people attending
educational institutions between 1988 and 1996. Teese (2001: 24), has
acknowledged that young people in the teenage years have borne the brunt of
a declining job market, decreasing 'by about half (in the case of boys) and
by two-thirds (in the case of girls)'. With a loss of opportunities for 15
to 19 year olds to enter the full time labour market, most teenagers have
turned to the education sectors, especially the school systems, in order to
undertake post-compulsory school qualifications. Many students, especially
those in the senior years of school are mixing their studies with some type
of part time employment.
As the employment situation in Australia has significantly altered over the
second half of the twentieth century the type of workforce that was required
no longer exists and the make up of those in employment has gradually
changed as Australia enters the new millennium. During the transformation,
the struggle for employment has meant that Australia's youth have had to
come to grips with a redistribution of employment options (Healy 1998).
While there seems to be general agreement in the literature that
unemployment rates for young people have risen significantly since the
1970s, Norris (1996) Whitfield and Ross (1996), and that these rates have
remained high, the reporting is inconsistent. For example Craig (2000) has
reported unemployment rates of '30 % or more' for 15 to 19 year olds while
Lewis and Mclean (1999) have suggested that in the context of teenage
participation in the labour force '18.8 per cent' were unemployment. On the
other hand, Miller (1998) claims that unemployment rates for teenagers is
approximately '19.3 per cent' and Wooden (1996) reports that youth
unemployment for teenagers stood at '20 per cent'.
Government Policy and Young People
As employability of young people became an emergent issue for governments
during the 1980s and 1990s policy development relating to young people
focused on aligning the employment of young people with educational
outcomes, linking the fortunes of employment to the education and training
agenda. However, it appears that not all young people were keen to take
advantage of the education and training schedule that was encouraged by the
government. This mean that as employment remained an issue for young people
in the 1990s, those youth identified as 'at risk' of unemployment or other
social ills, became the focus of policy development (Irving et al 1995).
There are those who have been critical of the development of youth policy in
Australia. Two documents released in the late 1990s by the Dusseldorp Skills
Forum (1998, 1999) examine the situation of young people in education,
training and employment at the post compulsory school stage, acknowledging
that the situation for many young people is not being addressed through
government policy. The documents not only imply that government policy
relating to young people is not aiding their transition into full time work
but contend that the situation in general has worsened.
Section 2
Government Reports
There has been a plethora of government reports, both state and federal
produced since the 1970s examining aspects relating to the education,
training and employment situation of young people. Approximately thirty-four
reports have examined circumstances surrounding the education, training and
employment of young people using data acquired from national databases. The
Commonwealth government has undertaken thirty of these reports and the state
government four, with the majority of these occurring during the 1990s,
particularly from 1991 to 1995. An increase in reports by the federal
government during this time may indicate a response to the education,
training and employment situation of young people or a concern regarding the
consistently reported high levels of youth unemployment.
Details regarding the methodology for the gathering of information have not
been well documented in the government reports reviewed for this study.
Twenty-five reports did not provide a clear indication of the methodology
that would be applied to gather the information or an explanation of how the
data collected were to be analysed. Of those reports that gave some mention
of research methodology few contained a specific chapter relating to data
gathering or data analysis. Most tended to provide an overview of the data
gathering as part of a broader title within a section of the report. An
example of this can be seen in the report by Stevenson, Maclachlan and
Karmel (1999) Regional Participation in Higher Education and the
Distribution of Higher Education Resources across Regions.
The national data presented in the government reports were acquired from a
range of official statistical sources. Forty-eight different data sources
were found to be used. The most frequented source was the Australian Bureau
of Statistics followed by the Commonwealth Department of Education, Training
and Youth Affairs (now the Commonwealth Department Education Science and
Training).
Research Methodology
The methodology used for this research is descriptive, which can be
explained as 'describing systematically the facts and characteristics of
given population or area of interest, factually and accurately (Isaac &
Michael 1997)'. This study is defined as descriptive research because it
presents a snapshot of the participation rates of young people in Australia
in education, training and employment, in doing so, presenting a holistic
picture of the patterns of engagement in these sectors of 15 to 24 year
olds, through the merging of data provided from national databanks.
Secondary data dominate this study. These types of data can best be
described as data that have been obtained from the research of others (Maher
and Burke 1991). Various organisations and personnel such as government
agencies, private individuals or industry groups gather data. The data
collected by these bodies may be used for a specific study or report and the
process of gathering these data makes them primary data. Primary data are
collected directly from the source/s using some form of data gathering tool
such as survey or interview. Once the data have been collated and used by
those who originally collected them, they may be archived in some way for
public access. It is at this point that they become secondary data.
The data collected for this study were obtained from a number of government
organisations including the Australian Bureau of Statistics, National Centre
for Vocational Education Research, the Ministerial Council for Education,
Employment Training and Youth Affairs and the Commonwealth Department of
Education, Training and Youth Affairs (now the Commonwealth Department
Education Science and Training).
The method of accessing data from the various organisations was a mixed
process. This was due to the numerous and diverse ways information is
published and dispersed into the public domain. Data sets can be found in
various publications including catalogues, government reports, Internet
publications and Internet data files. The data for this study were acquired
through several avenues. These included print material in the form of books
and catalogues held in libraries. Some material was purchased from specific
organisations and other catalogues and material were down-loaded from the
organisation's Internet web sites.
Once the data were obtained they were then analysed. The secondary data
collected for this study were collated around two age groups: those 15 to 19
years olds and those 20 to 24 year olds. As the data were in a variety of
formats, in order to begin the collating process most of the data acquired
were either tallied or reformatted. For example, the data relating to
education and full time/part time employment were tallied from a
twelve-month set of figures to a single figure, representing the average for
the year 1998.
To begin presenting a holistic picture of the education, training and
employment situation of young people at the post-compulsory school level,
the data were compiled into data trees, first using the raw data and then
the raw figures were converted into percentages. In order to facilitate
presentation of the information contained in the data trees in a more
familiar and readable style, data trees containing percentages were
reproduced in the form graphs.
Interpreting Data from Large Databases
Interpreting and using information from large databases has provoked debate
in the literature. The characteristics of a country collected by government
departments and collated into large data sets is generally referred to in
the literature as 'official statistics' and provides data on a range of
areas such as health, crime, finance, education, employment and trade (May
1997).
The debate in the literature regarding the use of official statistics
involves those who see the benefits of collecting data that represent a
national profile, through to those who see attempts to collate national
profiles in the form of large data banks as providing a misconstruction of
the reality of society. Hindess (1973) for example, is critical of the use
of official statistics in social research as such data fail to portray an
accurate sense of 'real-life', because official statistics are not a
successful method to provide a standardised framework in which to position
data. On the other hand, Miles and Evans (1979) argue that official data do
not represent a true perspective of society because the weight of data
collected tends to reinforce the beliefs of the dominant culture, thereby
rendering them useless for any form of critical debate.
In relation to this study, it appears that there is concern regarding the
use of official statistics in the reporting of TAFE participation rates.
There are inconsistencies in the reported participation rates between data
sets due to the different methodology employed by government institutes when
collecting national data. This has been acknowledged in a report by the
National Board of Employment, Education and Training (1992), Post-compulsory
Education and Training: Fitting the Need. The report explains that the
methodology applied by the Australian Bureau of Statistic and the
Commonwealth Department of Education, Training and Employment (now the
Commonwealth Department Education Science and Training) differs and are
therefore not comparable. The definition of a TAFE enrolment, along with the
time enrolments at TAFE are collected, seem to be the cause of the
conflicting participation rates in the TAFE sector. Such discrepancies
relating to participation rates in education only appear to occur in
relation to the TAFE sector. DEETYA (now DEST) and the ABS do not seem to
have the same degree of difficulty in the reporting of school enrolments or
higher education participation rates.
Findings from the Study
The interpretation of findings will be reported in two parts. Part A
constitutes a report on the analysis of the data collected for this study
portraying participation rates of 15 to 24 year olds in education and
employment in 1998. Part B involves a discussion of the emergent complexity
of using data acquired from national organisations.
Part A
1. Education
As indicated in the literature, for example Misko (1999), Ainley and Fleming
(1996), a higher percentage of young people are completing post-compulsory
high school qualifications during the final decades of the twentieth
century. This represents a significant change in secondary education
participation rates that has occurred for teenagers. The findings from this
research support the school participation trends reported in the literature.
The analysis of the data from this study shows that there is a significant
number of young people participating in the tertiary sector thus supporting
findings in the literature (Marginson 1999) regarding the increase in
participation rates of young Australians especially in higher education.
This study also found that tertiary education participation for males and
females is approximately the same. The difference in participation within
the tertiary sectors is that more males are attending TAFE institutes and
more females are attending higher education, demonstrating that some males
and females take separate routes to acquire qualifications for entry into
the workforce. This maybe due to the loss of jobs in the manufacturing
sector, which employed a substantial number of female teenage school
leavers. As the majority of apprenticeships are held by males (Dockery and
Norris 1996), this may account for the high percentage of males in the TAFE
sector.
This study also acknowledges the irregularities in the data regarding TAFE
participation. Data gathered for this study and figures reported by
Everingham (1999) illustrate the significant differences between DETYA (now
DEST) and ABS data supporting the argument that the methodology used to
collect the data effects the outcomes reported. However, differences in the
TAFE data may also support the position that official statistics are a
reflection of the priorities of persons within the government (May 1997).
Given the profile and funding of vocational education and training by
governments in recent years, the differences in the data may also reflect
the agenda of DETYA (now DEST) in continuing to pursue funding in the vocati
onal education area as a way of justifying the effectiveness of the sector
in training young people and the financial expenditure it requires in order
to do this.
2. Labour Force Participation
This study acknowledges that there are significant issues surrounding the
employment opportunities for young people as they attempt to enter the full
time workforce. The job market for this age group has significantly altered
from the one that existed during the decades that preceded World War II. The
demand for young people in the workforce, especially teenagers, has swung
from a need for full time workers to a rise in the demand for part time
workers, a current characteristic of the employment situation for young
people. However, this study revels that there are some concerning aspects in
the reporting of employment data relating to those in the 15 to 24 year old
age group.
The data from this study examining employment indicates that the majority of
teenagers who have employment are in some form of part time work, thus
supporting other areas of research documented in the literature (Robinson
1996). While males and females in the 15 to 19 year old age group
participate in employment at approximately the same rate, it is evident that
there are more males in full time work than females and more females in part
time work than males. This same trend is reflected for those in the 20 to 24
year old age group, although there are more of this age group in full time
work.
Some of the figures quoted in the literature regarding unemployment rates,
differ significantly from the rates found by this study. The total
unemployment documented by this research for 15 to 19 year olds was 11.4%
and for 20 to 24 year olds the rate was 9.6%. However rates as high as 30%
(Craig 2000) for 15 to 19 year olds and other variable rates were reported
in the literature. Such discrepancies can misrepresent the situation a
difference of approximately 20% represents approximately 270 000 15 to 19
year olds, which is a large number of individuals affected by decisions made
on these statistics.
The literature has recognised (Robinson, 1996) that the loss of employment
opportunities for young people was in the manufacturing sector, however, it
is still the largest employer of young males. As acknowledged earlier,
perhaps the greatest number of jobs to disappear from the manufacturing
sector affected females and, therefore, young women have had greater
participation in certain sectors of education because new employment
pathways for females may require higher levels of educational
qualifications.
It has also been acknowledged by those such as Hancock and Safari (2001)
that the largest employment expansion in the industry sector has been in
property and business, along with accommodation, cafes and restaurants, but
for young people these sectors are not the largest employers. This study
supports recent findings documented in the literature, as identified in the
Kirby report (2000), which acknowledges that young people continue to face
significant issues in the labour market, especially in acquiring full time
employment.
Section B
During the development of this study it became clear that dealing with
existing data and indeed interpreting statistical information presented by
various government departments, provided another dimension to this research;
one that was not foreseen at the beginning of the study. While there is a
considerable amount of official data produced by government departments, and
made available to the public, data are not always presented in a format that
makes reading and interpretation a straight-forward activity. Transforming
data for this study from large data banks required much analysis and
computer formatting, in order to present the numerical information into a
readable and usable format.
It was found that variables in large databases tend to only be consistently
represented within the same databases and in some cases within systems. Some
databases report their findings using other variables that are not commonly
used by all systems, thus causing anomalies between the data. For example,
some databases reported the data using age, while others reported the data
using school year groups.
While a range of data exists regarding the education and participation rates
of young people, within the education sectors school enrolments are
collected more times than those in other areas. Labour force participation
appears to be collected primarily by one organisation. Labour force data are
also collated against education participation, however the type of
institution attended is not presented.
The method of organising databases to collect data on young people reflects
the analysis regarding young people's destinations. Education and employment
are the main categories from which sub-categories are drawn and from that,
fields of investigation have been measured. However, there are areas missing
within the organisation of the data regarding participation rates of young
people. This has ramifications for those trying to gain a clear picture of
participation rates of young people when aspects of the data have been
omitted.
Conclusion
This study sought to depict the participation rates of 15 to 24 year olds in
education, training and employment at the post-compulsory school level, by
using national data published for the calendar year 1998, and made available
for public access by government authorities in Australia. The findings show
that a significant number of young people are in some form of education or
training at the post-compulsory school level and that the road to gaining
full time employment remains a long-term journey for many young people in
this age group, supporting other research conducted in this area.
However, there are some areas found in this research that do not compare
with similar types of research, such as TAFE participation rates and the
reported levels of youth unemployment. It has also been noted that the use
of data published by government organisations has provided statistical
information for research and for government reports examining the education
and employment situation of young people.
This research has found that there are issues that need to be addressed
regarding the collection, reporting and recording of national data.
Incongruencies exist in the reporting of national data pertaining to 15 to
24 year olds and their participation rates in education and employment.
National data, supplied by government authorities, have been used in this
study and as incongruencies have been located in this age group, then
similar inconsistencies may well exist in other areas.
This study has shown that the reporting of secondary data has the potential
to portray national participation rates within a society, however the
presentation of statistical information needs to be reported by government
authorities using a consistent range of variables. It has also been
illustrated that those writers quoting data obtained from national
authorities need to make it clear to the readers the validity of the data,
otherwise readers may be left with an impression that is not representative
of the situation.
In conclusion, this research has found that government authorities that
collect national data fail to present data that relate to the same area,
using constant and regular variables. Therefore, if this study has found
incongruencies have been located in the data relating to 15 to 24 year olds
then similar inconsistencies may well exist in other areas across national
databases regarding other age groups in Australia. This type of
investigation may well be considered for further research.
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youth: reality and risk: A national perspective on developments that have
affected 15-19 year olds during the 1990s. Sydney: Allen and Unwin.
----- Original Message -----
From: AARE Office <aare@aare.edu.au>
To: sally knipe <sshowlongbtmr@ozemail.com.au>
Sent: Thursday, May 09, 2002 6:54 AM
Subject: KNI02171 Refereed Paper Proposal Accepted
> Dear Ms Knipe
> Your proposal to submit the paper KNI02171 "Young people in education
> and employment: The data trail" for full paper refereeing has been
> accepted. Please forward your paper and your refereeing fee as soon as
> possible prior to 25 May.
> Wendy Shilton
> AARE Office
>
>